An Artificial Intelligence Model for Predicting Trauma Mortality Among Emergency Department Patients in South Korea: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Within the trauma system, the emergency department (ED) is the hospital's first contact and is vital for allocating medical resources. However, there is generally limited information about patients that die in the ED. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict trauma mortality and analyze pertinent mortality factors for all patients visiting the ED. METHODS: We used the Korean National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) data set (N=6,536,306), incorporating over 400 hospitals between 2016 and 2019. We included the International Classification of Disease 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes and chose the following input features to predict ED patient mortality: age, sex, intentionality, injury, emergent symptom, Alert/Verbal/Painful/Unresponsive (AVPU) scale, Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS), and vital signs. We compared three different feature set performances for AI input: all features (n=921), ICD-10 features (n=878), and features excluding ICD-10 codes (n=43). We devised various machine learning models with an ensemble approach via 5-fold cross-validation and compared the performance of each model with that of traditional prediction models. Lastly, we investigated explainable AI feature effects and deployed our final AI model on a public website, providing access to our mortality prediction results among patients visiting the ED. RESULTS: Our proposed AI model with the all-feature set achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.9974 (adaptive boosting [AdaBoost], AdaBoost + light gradient boosting machine [LightGBM]: Ensemble), outperforming other state-of-the-art machine learning and traditional prediction models, including extreme gradient boosting (AUROC=0.9972), LightGBM (AUROC=0.9973), ICD-based injury severity scores (AUC=0.9328 for the inclusive model and AUROC=0.9567 for the exclusive model), and KTAS (AUROC=0.9405). In addition, our proposed AI model outperformed a cutting-edge AI model designed for in-hospital mortality prediction (AUROC=0.7675) for all ED visitors. From the AI model, we also discovered that age and unresponsiveness (coma) were the top two mortality predictors among patients visiting the ED, followed by oxygen saturation, multiple rib fractures (ICD-10 code S224), painful response (stupor, semicoma), and lumbar vertebra fracture (ICD-10 code S320). CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed AI model exhibits remarkable accuracy in predicting ED mortality. Including the necessity for external validation, a large nationwide data set would provide a more accurate model and minimize overfitting. We anticipate that our AI-based risk calculator tool will substantially aid health care providers, particularly regarding triage and early diagnosis for trauma patients.

Model for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality of Physical Trauma Patients Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques: Nationwide Population-Based Study in Korea.

BACKGROUND: Physical trauma-related mortality places a heavy burden on society. Estimating the mortality risk in physical trauma patients is crucial to enhance treatment efficiency and reduce this burden. The most popular and accurate model is the Injury Severity Score (ISS), which is based on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), an anatomical injury severity scoring system. However, the AIS requires specialists to code the injury scale by reviewing a patient's medical record; therefore, applying the model to every hospital is impossible. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict in-hospital mortality in physical trauma patients using the International Classification of Disease 10th Revision (ICD-10), triage scale, procedure codes, and other clinical features. METHODS: We used the Korean National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) data set (N=778,111) compiled from over 400 hospitals between 2016 and 2019. To predict in-hospital mortality, we used the following as input features: ICD-10, patient age, gender, intentionality, injury mechanism, and emergent symptom, Alert/Verbal/Painful/Unresponsive (AVPU) scale, Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS), and procedure codes. We proposed the ensemble of deep neural networks (EDNN) via 5-fold cross-validation and compared them with other state-of-the-art machine learning models, including traditional prediction models. We further investigated the effect of the features. RESULTS: Our proposed EDNN with all features provided the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.9507, outperforming other state-of-the-art models, including the following traditional prediction models: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost; AUROC of 0.9433), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost; AUROC of 0.9331), ICD-based ISS (AUROC of 0.8699 for an inclusive model and AUROC of 0.8224 for an exclusive model), and KTAS (AUROC of 0.1841). In addition, using all features yielded a higher AUROC than any other partial features, namely, EDNN with the features of ICD-10 only (AUROC of 0.8964) and EDNN with the features excluding ICD-10 (AUROC of 0.9383). CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed EDNN with all features outperforms other state-of-the-art models, including the traditional diagnostic code-based prediction model and triage scale.

Efficacy and Safety of Laparoscopy for Mild and Moderate Pediatric Abdominal Trauma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of laparoscopy for pediatric patients with abdominal trauma. Relevant articles were obtained by searching the MEDLINE PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases until 7 December 2021. Meta-analyses were performed using odds ratio (OR) for binary outcomes, standardized mean differences (SMDs) for continuous outcome measures, and overall proportion for single proportional outcomes. Nine studies examining 12,492 patients were included in our meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis showed younger age (SMD -0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.52 to -0.42), lower injury severity score (SMD -0.62, 95% CI -0.67 to -0.57), shorter hospital stay (SMD -0.55, 95% CI -0.60 to -0.50), less complications (OR 0.375, 95% CI 0.309 to 0.455), and lower mortality rate (OR 0.055, 95% CI 0.0.28 to 0.109) in the laparoscopy group compared to the laparotomy group. The majority of patients were able to avoid laparotomy (0.816, 95% CI 0.800 to 0.833). There were no missed injuries during the laparoscopic procedures in seven eligible studies. Laparoscopy for stable pediatric patients showed favorable outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality. There were no missed injuries, and laparotomy could be avoided for the majority of patients.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Ultrasonographic Respiratory Variation in the Inferior Vena Cava, Subclavian Vein, Internal Jugular Vein, and Femoral Vein Diameter to Predict Fluid Responsiveness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the ultrasonographic variation of the diameter of the inferior vena cava (IVC), internal jugular vein (IJV), subclavian vein (SCV), and femoral vein (FV) to predict fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Relevant articles were obtained by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases (articles up to 21 October 2021). The number of true positives, false positives, false negatives, and true negatives for the index test to predict fluid responsiveness was collected. We used a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics model and bivariate model for meta-analysis. Finally, 30 studies comprising 1719 patients were included in this review. The ultrasonographic variation of the IVC showed a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.83, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.86. In the subgroup analysis, there was no difference between patients on mechanical ventilation and those breathing spontaneously. In terms of the IJV, SCV, and FV, meta-analysis was not conducted due to the limited number of studies. The ultrasonographic measurement of the variation in diameter of the IVC has a favorable diagnostic accuracy for predicting fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. However, there was insufficient evidence in terms of the IJV, SCV, and FV.