RESUMO
This study addresses the limited tools available for assessing food safety risks from cytotoxic Bacillus cereus group strains in contaminated food. We quantified the growth, in skim milk broth, of 17 cytotoxic B. cereus strains across 6 phylogenetic groups with various virulence gene profiles. The strains did not grow in HTST milk at 4 or 6°C. At 10°C, 15 strains exhibited growth; at 8°C, one strain grew; and all strains grew at temperatures ≥ 14°C. Using growth data from 16 strains, we developed linear secondary growth models and an exposure assessment model. This model, simulating a 5-stage HTST milk supply chain and up to 35 d of consumer storage with an initial contamination of 100 cfu/mL, estimated that 2.81 ± 0.66% and 4.13 ± 2.53% of milk containers would surpass 105 cfu/mL of B. cereus by d 21 and 35, respectively. A sensitivity analysis identified the initial physiological state of cells (Q0) as the most influential variable affecting predictions for specific isolates. What-if scenarios indicated that increases in mean and variability of consumer storage temperatures significantly affected the predicted B. cereus concentrations in milk. This model serves as an initial tool for risk-based food safety decision making regarding low-level B. cereus contamination.