Estimating disease prevalence in large datasets using genetic risk scores.

Clinical classification is essential for estimating disease prevalence but is difficult, often requiring complex investigations. The widespread availability of population level genetic data makes novel genetic stratification techniques a highly attractive alternative. We propose a generalizable mathematical framework for determining disease prevalence within a cohort using genetic risk scores. We compare and evaluate methods based on the means of genetic risk scores' distributions; the Earth Mover's Distance between distributions; a linear combination of kernel density estimates of distributions; and an Excess method. We demonstrate the performance of genetic stratification to produce robust prevalence estimates. Specifically, we show that robust estimates of prevalence are still possible even with rarer diseases, smaller cohort sizes and less discriminative genetic risk scores, highlighting the general utility of these approaches. Genetic stratification techniques offer exciting new research tools, enabling unbiased insights into disease prevalence and clinical characteristics unhampered by clinical classification criteria.

IgA Nephropathy Genetic Risk Score to Estimate the Prevalence of IgA Nephropathy in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the commonest glomerulonephritis worldwide. Its prevalence is difficult to estimate, as people with mild disease do not commonly receive a biopsy diagnosis. We aimed to generate an IgA nephropathy genetic risk score (IgAN-GRS) and estimate the proportion of people with hematuria who had IgAN in the UK Biobank (UKBB). METHODS: We calculated an IgAN-GRS using 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) drawn from the largest European Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) and validated the IgAN-GRS in 464 biopsy-proven IgAN European cases from the UK Glomerulonephritis DNA Bank (UKGDB) and in 379,767 Europeans in the UKBB. We used the mean of IgAN-GRS to calculate the proportion of potential IgAN in 14,181 with hematuria and other nonspecific renal phenotypes from 379,767 Europeans in the UKBB. RESULTS: The IgAN-GRS was higher in the IgAN cohort (4.30; 95% confidence interval [95% CI: 4.23-4.38) than in controls (3.98; 3.97-3.98; P < 0.0001). The mean GRS in UKBB participants with hematuria (n = 12,858) was higher (4.04; 4.02-4.06) than UKBB controls (3.98; 3.97-3.98; P < 0.0001) and higher in those with hematuria, hypertension, and microalbuminuria (n = 1323) (4.07; 4.02-4.13) versus (3.98; 3.97-3.98; P = 0.0003). Using the difference in these means, we estimated that IgAN accounted for 19% of noncancer hematuria and 28% with hematuria, hypertension, and microalbuminuria in UKBB. CONCLUSIONS: We used an IgAN-GRS to estimate the prevalence of IgAN contributing to common phenotypes that are not always biopsied. The noninvasive use of polygenic risk in this setting may have further utility to identify likely etiology of nonspecific renal phenotypes in large population cohorts.

A single nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score to aid diagnosis of coeliac disease: a pilot study in clinical care.

BACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphism-based genetic risk scores (GRS) model genetic risk as a continuum and can discriminate coeliac disease but have not been validated in clinic. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DQ gene testing is available in clinic but does not include non-HLA attributed risk and is limited by discrete risk stratification. AIMS: To accurately characterise both HLA and non-HLA coeliac disease genetic risk as a single nucleotide polymorphism-based GRS and evaluate diagnostic utility. METHODS: We developed a 42 single nucleotide polymorphism coeliac disease GRS from a European case-control study (12 041 cases vs 12 228 controls) using HLA-DQ imputation and published genome-wide association studies. We validated the GRS in UK Biobank (1237 cases) and developed direct genotyping assays. We tested the coeliac disease GRS in a pilot clinical cohort of 128 children presenting with suspected coeliac disease. RESULTS: The GRS was more discriminative of coeliac disease than HLA-DQ stratification in UK Biobank (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve [ROC-AUC] = 0.88 [95% CIs: 0.87-0.89] vs 0.82 [95% CIs: 0.80-0.83]). We demonstrated similar discrimination in the pilot clinical cohort (114 cases vs 40 controls, ROC-AUC = 0.84 [95% CIs: 0.76-0.91]). As a rule-out test, no children with coeliac disease in the clinical cohort had a GRS below 38th population centile. CONCLUSIONS: A single nucleotide polymorphism-based GRS may offer more effective and cost-efficient testing of coeliac disease genetic risk in comparison to HLA-DQ stratification. As a comparatively inexpensive test it could facilitate non-invasive coeliac disease diagnosis but needs detailed assessment in the context of other diagnostic tests and against current diagnostic algorithms.

Endothelin Receptor Antagonism Improves Lipid Profiles and Lowers PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

Dyslipidemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Despite statins, many patients fail to adequately lower lipids and remain at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Selective ETA (endothelin-A) receptor antagonists reduce cardiovascular disease risk factors. Preclinical data suggest that ETA antagonism has beneficial effects on circulating lipids. We assessed the effects of selective ETA antagonism on circulating lipids and PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) in CKD. This was a secondary analysis of a fully randomized, double-blind, 3-phase crossover study. Twenty-seven subjects with predialysis CKD on optimal cardio- and renoprotective treatment were randomly assigned to receive 6 weeks dosing with placebo, the selective ETA receptor antagonist, sitaxentan, or long-acting nifedipine. We measured circulating lipids and PCSK9 at baseline and then after 3 and 6 weeks. Baseline lipids and PCSK9 did not differ before each study phase. Whereas placebo and nifedipine had no effect on lipids, 6 weeks of ETA antagonism significantly reduced total (-11±1%) and low-density lipoprotein-associated (-20±3%) cholesterol, lipoprotein (a) (-16±2%) and triglycerides (-20±4%); high-density lipoprotein-associated cholesterol increased (+14±2%), P<0.05 versus baseline for all. Additionally, ETA receptor antagonism, but neither placebo nor nifedipine, reduced circulating PCSK9 (-19±2%; P<0.001 versus baseline; P<0.05 versus nifedipine and placebo). These effects were independent of statin use and changes in blood pressure or proteinuria. Selective ETA antagonism improves lipid profiles in optimally-managed patients with CKD, effects that may occur through a reduction in circulating PCSK9. ETA receptor antagonism offers a potentially novel strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in CKD. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00810732.

11ß-HSD1 suppresses cardiac fibroblast CXCL2, CXCL5 and neutrophil recruitment to the heart post MI.

We have previously demonstrated that neutrophil recruitment to the heart following myocardial infarction (MI) is enhanced in mice lacking 11ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11ß-HSD1) that regenerates active glucocorticoid within cells from intrinsically inert metabolites. The present study aimed to identify the mechanism of regulation. In a mouse model of MI, neutrophil mobilization to blood and recruitment to the heart were higher in 11ß-HSD1-deficient (Hsd11b1-/- ) relative to wild-type (WT) mice, despite similar initial injury and circulating glucocorticoid. In bone marrow chimeric mice, neutrophil mobilization was increased when 11ß-HSD1 was absent from host cells, but not when absent from donor bone marrow-derived cells. Consistent with a role for 11ß-HSD1 in 'host' myocardium, gene expression of a subset of neutrophil chemoattractants, including the chemokines Cxcl2 and Cxcl5, was selectively increased in the myocardium of Hsd11b1-/- mice relative to WT. SM22α-Cre directed disruption of Hsd11b1 in smooth muscle and cardiomyocytes had no effect on neutrophil recruitment. Expression of Cxcl2 and Cxcl5 was elevated in fibroblast fractions isolated from hearts of Hsd11b1-/- mice post MI and provision of either corticosterone or of the 11ß-HSD1 substrate, 11-dehydrocorticosterone, to cultured murine cardiac fibroblasts suppressed IL-1α-induced expression of Cxcl2 and Cxcl5 These data identify suppression of CXCL2 and CXCL5 chemoattractant expression by 11ß-HSD1 as a novel mechanism with potential for regulation of neutrophil recruitment to the injured myocardium, and cardiac fibroblasts as a key site for intracellular glucocorticoid regeneration during acute inflammation following myocardial injury.

Smooth Muscle Endothelin B Receptors Regulate Blood Pressure but Not Vascular Function or Neointimal Remodeling.

The role of smooth muscle endothelinB (ETB) receptors in regulating vascular function, blood pressure (BP), and neointimal remodeling has not been established. Selective knockout mice were generated to address the hypothesis that loss of smooth muscle ETB receptors would reduce BP, alter vascular contractility, and inhibit neointimal remodeling. ETB receptors were selectively deleted from smooth muscle by crossing floxed ETB mice with those expressing cre-recombinase controlled by the transgelin promoter. Functional consequences of ETB deletion were assessed using myography. BP was measured by telemetry, and neointimal lesion formation induced by femoral artery injury. Lesion size and composition (day 28) were analyzed using optical projection tomography, histology, and immunohistochemistry. Selective deletion of ETB was confirmed by genotyping, autoradiography, polymerase chain reaction, and immunohistochemistry. ETB-mediated contraction was reduced in trachea, but abolished from mesenteric veins, of knockout mice. Induction of ETB-mediated contraction in mesenteric arteries was also abolished in these mice. Femoral artery function was unaltered, and baseline BP modestly elevated in smooth muscle ETB knockout compared with controls (+4.2±0.2 mm Hg; P<0.0001), but salt-induced and ETB blockade-mediated hypertension were unaltered. Circulating endothelin-1 was not altered in knockout mice. ETB-mediated contraction was not induced in femoral arteries by incubation in culture medium or lesion formation, and lesion size was not altered in smooth muscle ETB knockout mice. In the absence of other pathology, ETB receptors in vascular smooth muscle make a small but significant contribution to ETB-dependent regulation of BP. These ETB receptors have no effect on vascular contraction or neointimal remodeling.

Arterial stiffness &Sri Lankan chronic kidney disease of unknown origin.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common and independently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Arterial stiffness contributes to CVD risk in CKD. In many developing countries a considerable proportion of CKD remains unexplained, termed CKDu. We assessed arterial stiffness in subjects with Sri Lankan CKDu, in matched controls without CKD and in those with defined CKD. Aortic blood pressure (BP), pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index (AIx) were assessed in 130 subjects (50 with CKDu, 45 with CKD and 35 without CKD) using the validated TensioMed™ Arteriograph monitor. Brachial and aortic BP was lower in controls than in CKDu and CKD subjects but no different between CKDu and CKD. Controls had a lower PWV compared to subjects with CKDu and CKD. Despite equivalent BP and renal dysfunction, CKDu subjects had a lower PWV than those with CKD (8.7 ± 1.5 vs. 9.9 ± 2.2 m/s, p < 0.01). Excluding diabetes accentuated the differences in PWV seen between groups (controls vs. CKDu vs. CKD: 6.7 ± 0.9 vs. 8.7 ± 1.5 vs. 10.4 ± 1.5 m/s, p < 0.001 for all). Sri Lankan CKDu is associated with less arterial stiffening than defined causes of CKD. Whether this translates to lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality long term is unclear and should be the focus of future studies.

Chorioretinal thinning in chronic kidney disease links to inflammation and endothelial dysfunction.

BACKGROUND. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is strongly associated with cardiovascular disease and there is an established association between vasculopathy affecting the kidney and eye. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a novel, rapid method for high-definition imaging of the retina and choroid. Its use in patients at high cardiovascular disease risk remains unexplored. METHODS. We used the new SPECTRALIS OCT machine to examine retinal and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, macular volume, and choroidal thickness in a prospective cross-sectional study in 150 subjects: 50 patients with hypertension (defined as a documented clinic BP greater than or equal to 140/90 mmHg (prior to starting any treatment) with no underlying cause identified); 50 with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 8-125 ml/min/1.73 m2); and 50 matched healthy controls. We excluded those with diabetes. The same, masked ophthalmologist carried out each study. Plasma IL-6, TNF-α , asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), and endothelin-1 (ET-1), as measures of inflammation and endothelial function, were also assessed. RESULTS. Retinal thickness, macular volume, and choroidal thickness were all reduced in CKD compared with hypertensive and healthy subjects (for retinal thickness and macular volume P < 0.0001 for CKD vs. healthy and for CKD vs. hypertensive subjects; for choroidal thickness P < 0.001 for CKD vs. healthy and for CKD vs. hypertensive subjects). RNFL thickness did not differ between groups. Interestingly, a thinner choroid was associated with a lower eGFR (r = 0.35, P <0.0001) and, in CKD, with proteinuria (r = -0.58, P < 0.001) as well as increased circulating C-reactive protein (r = -0.57, P = 0.0002), IL-6 (r = -0.40, P < 0.01), ADMA (r = -0.37, P = 0.02), and ET-1 (r = -0.44, P < 0.01). Finally, choroidal thinning was associated with renal histological inflammation and arterial stiffness. In a model of hypertension, choroidal thinning was seen only in the presence of renal injury. CONCLUSIONS. Chorioretinal thinning in CKD is associated with lower eGFR and greater proteinuria, but not BP. Larger studies, in more targeted groups of patients, are now needed to clarify whether these eye changes reflect the natural history of CKD. Similarly, the associations with arterial stiffness, inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction warrant further examination. TRIAL REGISTRATION. Registration number at www.clinicalTrials.gov: NCT02132741. SOURCE OF FUNDING. TR was supported by a bursary from the Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam. JJMHvB was supported by a bursary from the Utrecht University. JRC is supported by a Rowling Scholarship. SB was supported by a Wellcome Trust funded clinical research fellowship from the Scottish Translational Medicine and Therapeutics Initiative, and by a Rowling Scholarship, at the time of this work. ND is supported by a British Heart Foundation Intermediate Clinical Research Fellowship (FS/13/30/29994).

Plasma pro-endothelin-1 peptide concentrations rise in chronic kidney disease and following selective endothelin A receptor antagonism.

BACKGROUND: Endothelin 1 (ET-1) contributes to chronic kidney disease (CKD) development and progression, and endothelin receptor antagonists are being investigated as a novel therapy for CKD. The proET-1 peptides, endothelin-like domain peptide (ELDP) and C-terminal pro-ET-1 (CT-proET-1), are both potential biomarkers of CKD and response to therapy with endothelin antagonists. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed plasma and urine ELDP and plasma CT-proET-1 in CKD patients with minimal comorbidity. Next, in a randomized double-blind crossover study of 27 subjects with proteinuric CKD, we examined the effects of 6 weeks of treatment with placebo, sitaxentan (endothelin A antagonist), and nifedipine on these peptides alongside the primary end points of proteinuria, blood pressure, and arterial stiffness. Plasma ELDP and CT-proET-1 increased with CKD stage (both P<0.0001), correlating inversely with estimated glomerular filtration rate (both P<0.0001). Following intervention, placebo and nifedipine did not affect plasma and urine ELDP or plasma CT-proET-1. Sitaxentan increased both plasma ELDP and CT-proET-1 (baseline versus week 6±SEM: ELDP, 11.8±0.5 versus 13.4±0.6 fmol/mL; CT-proET-1, 20.5±1.2 versus 23.3±1.5 fmol/mL; both P<0.0001). Plasma ET-1 was unaffected by any treatment. Following sitaxentan, plasma ELDP and CT-proET-1 correlated negatively with 24-hour urinary sodium excretion. CONCLUSIONS: ELDP and CT-proET-1 increase in CKD and thus are potentially useful biomarkers of renal injury. Increases in response to endothelin A antagonism may reflect EDN1 upregulation, which may partly explain fluid retention with these agents. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: www.clinicalTrials.gov Unique identifier: NCT00810732.

Diurnal variation in blood pressure and arterial stiffness in chronic kidney disease: the role of endothelin-1.

Hypertension and arterial stiffness are important independent cardiovascular risk factors in chronic kidney disease (CKD) to which endothelin-1 (ET-1) contributes. Loss of nocturnal blood pressure (BP) dipping is associated with CKD progression, but there are no data on 24-hour arterial stiffness variation. We examined the 24-hour variation of BP, arterial stiffness, and the ET system in healthy volunteers and patients with CKD and the effects on these of ET receptor type A receptor antagonism (sitaxentan). There were nocturnal dips in systolic BP and diastolic BP and pulse wave velocity, our measure of arterial stiffness, in 15 controls (systolic BP, −3.2±4.8%, P<0.05; diastolic BP, −6.4±6.2%, P=0.001; pulse wave velocity, −5.8±5.2%, P<0.01) but not in 15 patients with CKD. In CKD, plasma ET-1 increased by 1.2±1.4 pg/mL from midday to midnight compared with healthy volunteers (P<0.05). Urinary ET-1 did not change. In a randomized, double-blind, 3-way crossover study in 27 patients with CKD, 6-week treatment with placebo and nifedipine did not affect nocturnal dips in systolic BP or diastolic BP between baseline and week 6, whereas dipping was increased after 6-week sitaxentan treatment (baseline versus week 6, systolic BP: −7.0±6.2 versus −11.0±7.8 mm Hg, P<0.05; diastolic BP: −6.0±3.6 versus −8.3±5.1 mm Hg, P<0.05). There was no nocturnal dip in pulse pressure at baseline in the 3 phases of the study, whereas sitaxentan was linked to the development of a nocturnal dip in pulse pressure. In CKD, activation of the ET system seems to contribute not only to raised BP but also the loss of BP dipping. The clinical significance of these findings should be explored in future clinical trials.