AUDIT-C as a possible source of referral during the COVID-19 pandemic for participants presenting patterns of high-risk alcohol consumption in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy alcohol use is a leading contributor to premature death and disability worldwide. The World Health Organization's Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health ranked South Africa as having one of the riskiest patterns of alcohol consumption, which calls for intervention. Recognising the need for effective primary care interventions, particularly in the absence of appropriate alcohol-related harm reduction policies at national and local levels, this paper highlights the opportunities and challenges associated with a two-pronged, community-centred approach to the identification of unhealthy alcohol use and interventions. METHODS: This approach included the use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) as a means of screening to identify individuals at moderate (score of 5-7) to high risk (score of 8 +) alcohol use, raising awareness, and investigating the potential utility of brief advice and referrals as a means of reducing risk. RESULTS: Of the 54,187 participants, 43.0% reported engaging in moderate-risk alcohol consumption, with 22.1% reporting high-risk alcohol consumption. Resistance to brief advice was observed to increase with higher AUDIT-C scores. Similarly, participants engaging in high-risk alcohol consumption were resistant to accepting treatment referrals, with fewer than 10% open to receiving a referral. CONCLUSIONS: While men were most likely to report patterns of high-risk alcohol consumption, they were more resistant to accepting referrals. Additionally, participants who were willing to receive brief advice were often resistant to taking active steps to alter their alcohol use. This study highlights the need to consider how to prevent harmful patterns of alcohol use effectively and holistically, especially in low socioeconomic settings through primary health care and community services.

A longitudinal analysis of the effect of maternal region-of-birth on transitions in children's bodyweight status from early childhood to late adolescence in Australia: A population-based cohort study.

Although 49% of Australian residents have at least one overseas-born parent, little is known about children's longitudinal bodyweight transitions among the migrant population. This study examines the net associations between maternal region-of-birth and children's longitudinal bodyweight transitions between underweight, normal, and overweight/obese status from ages 2 to 17 years. A sample of 8889 children was drawn from seven waves of a national population-based cohort study, the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, conducted between 2004 and 2016. A multistate approach was used to investigate (i) the net effect of mother's region-of-birth on children's bodyweight transitions, (ii) the net estimation of cumulative transition probabilities, and (ii) the net conditional bodyweight expectancy, controlling for child-, family-, and neighbourhood-factors associated with children's bodyweight. Our results showed children of Oceania and African mothers had unfavourable outcomes (i.e., lower remission from or higher incidence of underweight or overweight/obese status) than children of non-migrants. Toddlers with suboptimal bodyweight status (especially those from disadvantaged groups) had higher net cumulative probabilities of staying in that status as a 17-year-old adolescent unless they managed to transfer to normal weight in the primary school years. The 15-year bodyweight expectancy depended on the initial bodyweight status at age two years, with some children of migrant mothers affected longer by suboptimal bodyweight status. In Australia, region-of-birth related disparities in bodyweight started early and were of significant duration throughout development until late adolescence. Culturally tailored health programs should begin at least as early as two years of age.

Burden and trend of diet-related non-communicable diseases in Australia and comparison with 34 OECD countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Diet is a major determining factor for many non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). However, evidence on diet-related NCD burden remains limited. We assessed the trends in diet-related NCDs in Australia from 1990 to 2015 and compared the results with other countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). METHODS: We used data and methods from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study to estimate the NCD mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 14 dietary risk factors in Australia and 34 OECD nations. Countries were further ranked from the lowest (first) to highest (35th) burden using an age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF). RESULTS: In 2015, the estimated number of deaths attributable to dietary risks was 29,414 deaths [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 24,697 - 34,058 or 19.7% of NCD deaths] and 443,385 DALYs (95% UI 377,680-511,388 or 9.5% of NCD DALYs) in Australia. Young (25-49 years) and middle-age (50-69 years) male adults had a higher PAF of diet-related NCD deaths and DALYs than their female counterparts. Diets low in fruits, vegetables, nuts and seeds and whole grains, but high in sodium, were the major contributors to both NCD deaths and DALYs. Overall, 42.3% of cardiovascular deaths were attributable to dietary risk factors. The age-standardized PAF of diet-related NCD mortality and DALYs decreased over the study period by 28.2% (from 27.0% in 1990 to 19.4% in 2015) and 41.0% (from 14.3% in 1990 to 8.4% in 2015), respectively. In 2015, Australia ranked 12th of 35 examined countries in diet-related mortality. A small improvement of rank was recorded compared to the previous 25 years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a reduction in diet-related NCD burden over 25 years, dietary risks are still the major contributors to a high burden of NCDs in Australia. Interventions targeting NCDs should focus on dietary behaviours of individuals and population groups.

A statistical downscaling approach for generating high spatial resolution health risk maps: a case study of road noise and ischemic heart disease mortality in Melbourne, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Road traffic noise increases the risk of mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD). Because noise is highly localized, high resolution maps of exposures and health outcomes are key to urban planning interventions that are informed by health risks. In Australia, publicly accessible IHD deaths data are only available at the coarse spatial aggregation level of local government area (LGA), in which about 130,000 people reside. Herein, we addressed this limitation of health data using statistical downscaling and generated environmental health risk maps for noise at the meshblock level (MB; ~ 90 people). METHODS: We estimated noise exposures at the MB level using a model of road traffic noise in Melbourne, Australia, from 2011. As recommended by the World Health Organization, a non-linear exposure-response function for traffic noise and IHD was used to calculate odds ratios for noise related IHD in all MBs. Noise attributable risks of IHD death were then estimated by statistically downscaling LGA-level IHD rates to the MB level. RESULTS: Noise levels of 80 dB were recorded in some MBs. From the given noise maps, approximately 5% of the population was exposed to traffic noise above the risk threshold of 55 dB. Maps of excess risk at the MB level identified areas in which noise levels and exposed populations are large. Attributable rates of IHD deaths due to noise were generally very low, but some were as high as 5-10 per 100,000, and in extremely noisy and populated MBs represented more than 8% excess risk of IHD death. We presented results as interactive maps of excess risk due to noise at the small neighbourhood scale. CONCLUSION: Our method accommodates low-resolution health data and could be used to inform urban planning and public health decision making for various environmental health concerns. Estimated noise related IHD deaths were relatively few in Melbourne in 2011, likely because road traffic is one of many noise sources and the current noise model underestimates exposures. Nonetheless, this novel computational framework could be used globally to generate maps of noise related health risks using scant health outcomes data.

Walking Up to One Hour Per Week Maintains Mobility as Older Women Age: Findings from an Australian Longitudinal Study.

The aim of this study was to identify determinants of walking and whether walking maintained mobility among women as they transition from their mid-70s to their late 80s. We used 12 years of follow-up data (baseline 1999) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (n = 10,322). Fifteen determinants of walking were included in the analysis and three indicators of mobility. Longitudinal data analyses techniques were employed. Thirteen of the 15 determinants were significant predictors of walking. Women in their mid-70s who walked up to 1 hr per week were less likely to experience loss of mobility in very old age, including reduced likelihood of using a mobility aid. Hence, older women who do no walking should be encouraged to walk to maintain their mobility and their independence as they age, particularly women in their 70s and 80s who smoke, are overweight, have arthritis, or who have had a recent fall.

Inefficiency, heterogeneity and spillover effects in maternal care in India: a spatial stochastic frontier analysis.

BACKGROUND: Institutional delivery is one of the key and proven strategies to reduce maternal deaths. Since the 1990s, the government of India has made substantial investment on maternal care to reduce the huge burden of maternal deaths in the country. However, despite the effort access to institutional delivery in India remains below the global average. In addition, even in places where health investments have been comparable, inter- and intra-state difference in access to maternal care services remain wide and substantial. This raises a fundamental question on whether the sub-national units themselves differ in terms of the efficiency with which they use available resources, and if so, why? METHODS: Data obtained from round 3 of the country's District Level Health and Facility Survey was analyzed to measure the level and determinants of inefficiency of institutional delivery in the country. Analysis was conducted using spatial stochastic frontier models that correct for heterogeneity and spatial interactions between sub-national units. RESULTS: Inefficiency differences in maternal care services between and within states are substantial. The top one third of districts in the country has a mean efficiency score of 90 per cent or more, while the bottom 10 per cent of districts exhibit mean inefficiency score of as high as over 75 per cent or more. Overall mean inefficiency is about 30 per cent. The result also reveals the existence of both heterogeneity and spatial correlation in institutional delivery in the country. CONCLUSIONS: Given the high level of inefficiency in the system, further progress in improving coverage of institutional delivery in the country should focus both on improving the efficiency of resource utilization--especially where inefficiency levels are extremely high--and on bringing new resources in to the system. The additional investment should specifically focus on those parts of the country where coverage rates are still low but efficiency levels are already at a high level. In addition, given that inefficiency was also associated inversely with literacy and urbanization and positively related with proportion of households belonging to poor households, investment in these areas can also improve coverage of institutional delivery in the country.

Effect of migrant parents' bodyweight perception on children's body bodyweight: A longitudinal analysis of population cohort study.

Children of migrants in Australia are disproportionally affected by overweight/obesity. Their parents, however, are likely to put little effort into lifestyle changes if unable to recognise their children's suboptimal bodyweight. We examined the potential impact of migrant parents' bodyweight perception on their children's bodyweight over time and whether the region-of-birth of parents and acculturation to the host nation's way of life moderated the relationship, as very little is known about these in the Australian context. We analysed a sample of 2046 children of migrant parents drawn from 8 waves of population-based cohort data, the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, capturing their lived experience from ages 2 to 17. After controlling for child, parent, family, and neighbourhood factors influencing children's bodyweight, multilevel models showed higher children's bodyweight in subsequent waves if their parents perceived children's bodyweight as lower than their actual bodyweight (i.e., underestimation). However, the rate of increase in children's bodyweight attenuated over time. The effect of migrant parents' underestimation on children's subsequent bodyweight differed by region-of-birth, with higher children's bodyweight in successive waves if their parents were from the Americas, compared to migrant parents from North/West Europe. Parents' acculturation, however, did not have a discernible effect. Although migrant parents' bodyweight perception of their children's bodyweight status influenced children's bodyweight in subsequent waves, this factor was not enough to explain the extent of disparities in children's bodyweight observed in the Australian migrant population. Further research is needed to assess the effects of other types of perception (such as perceptions of healthy weight and physical exercise) on bodyweight disparities in children of migrants.

National and subnational burden of under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The under-5 mortality rate is a commonly used indicator of population health and socioeconomic status worldwide. However, as in most low- and middle-income countries settings, deaths among children under-5 and in any age group in Ethiopia remain underreported and fragmented. We aimed to systematically estimate neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality trends, identify underlying causes, and make subnational (regional and chartered cities) comparisons between 1990 and 2019. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate three key under-5 mortality indicators-the probability of death between the date of birth and 28 days (neonatal mortality rate, NMR), the date of birth and 1 year (infant mortality rate, IMR), and the date of birth and 5 years (under-5 mortality rate, U5MR). The causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm). Specifically, this involved a multi-stage process that includes a non-linear mixed-effects model, source bias correction, spatiotemporal smoothing, and a Gaussian process regression to synthesise mortality estimates by age, sex, location, and year. In 2019, an estimated 190,173 (95% uncertainty interval 149,789-242,575) under-5 deaths occurred in Ethiopia. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of under-5 deaths in 2019 were within the first year of life, and over half (52%) in the first 28 days. The overall U5MR, IMR, and NMR in the country were estimated to be 52.4 (44.7-62.4), 41.5 (35.2-50.0), and 26.6 (22.6-31.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively, with substantial variations between administrative regions. Over three-quarters of under-5 deaths in 2019 were due to five leading causes, namely neonatal disorders (40.7%), diarrhoeal diseases (13.2%), lower respiratory infections (10.3%), congenital birth defects (7.0%), and malaria (6.0%). During the same period, neonatal disorders alone accounted for about 76.4% (70.2-79.6) of neonatal and 54.7% (51.9-57.2) of infant deaths in Ethiopia. While all regional states in Ethiopia have experienced a decline in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates in the past three decades, the rate of change was not large enough to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Inter-regional disparities in under 5 mortality also remain significant, with the biggest differences being in the neonatal period. A concerted effort is required to improve neonatal survival and lessen regional disparity, which may require strengthening essential obstetric and neonatal care services, among others. Our study also highlights the urgent need for primary studies to improve the accuracy of regional estimates in Ethiopia, particularly in pastoralist regions.

Children's longitudinal bodyweight in Australia: Influence of migrant mothers' long-term residency, attachment to, and level of childhood overweight in country-of-birth.

Immigration creates opportunities and imposes constraints associated with acculturation. We used the Australian national longitudinal survey of children aged 2 to 17 to evaluate the influence of mothers' long-term residency in Australia, mothers' attachment to country-of-birth, and macro indicators of childhood overweight environment at mothers' country-of-birth on children's longitudinal bodyweight. Both mothers' long-term exposure to the Australian environment and attachment to country-of-birth were associated with increased children's bodyweight z-scores. The childhood overweight environment in mothers' country-of-birth continued to influence their children's bodyweight after immigration. A better understanding of factors related to mothers' migration and children's bodyweight status is necessary to identify risk factors and migrant sub-groups needing extra support.

Social determinants of depression among mid-to-older aged Australians: A prospective study of the effects of neighbourhood disadvantage and crime.

Background: Few studies examining social determinants of depression have incorporated area level objectively measured crime combined with self-report measures of perceived crime. How these factors may interrelate with neighbourhood disadvantage is not well understood, particularly in Australia, where mental health disorders are of major concern. This study examined relationships between area-level objective crime, self-reported perceptions of crime, neighbourhood disadvantage and depression, and potential mechanisms by which these variables indirectly lead to depression. Methods: This study used data from the HABITAT Project, a representative longitudinal study of persons aged 40-65 years residing in 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia, during 2007-2016. A prospective sample of residentially stable persons who reported depression at two years (n =3120) and five years (n=2249) post-follow-up was developed. Area level objective crimes were categorised as either crimes against the person, social incivilities or unlawful entry. Logistic regression was used to establish relationships with depression, followed by a decomposition analysis to establish potential mechanisms. Results: Neighbourhoods in the highest quartile of crimes against the person had an increased risk of individuals reporting depression at all periods of follow-up. Associations were also found between unlawful entry and depression. Decomposition analysis indicated a positive and significant total effect of crime against the person on depression for all periods of follow-up, while an indirect effect of perceived crime was found to partially explain this relationship at 2-years after baseline (prop. Mediated = 46.5%), and at either or both periods of follow-up (prop. Mediated = 53.7%), but not at 5-years follow-up. Discussion: Neighbourhoods with the highest levels of crime against the person may influence depression over time through a pathway of perceived crime. Perceived crime, particularly in areas of high crime against the person should be considered as part of a multi-faceted strategy aimed at improving population mental health.

Exploring complementary and competitive relations between non-communicable disease services and other health extension programme services in Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has recently revitalised its health extension programme (HEP) to address the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We examined the effects of existing essential HEP services on the uptake of NCD preventive services. METHODS: We applied a mixed-effect non-linear model with a logit link function to identify factors associated with a community resident's probability of receiving NCD prevention services through the HEP. The data were drawn from the Ethiopian HEP assessment Survey conducted in all regions. The analysis included 9680 community residents, 261 health extension workers (HEWs), 153 health posts, 119 health centres, 55 districts and 9 regions, which we combined hierarchically into a single database. RESULTS: In the 12 months before the survey, 22% of the sample population reported receiving NCD preventive service at least once. The probability of receiving NCD prevention service increased by up to 25% (OR=1.25, CI 1.01 to 1.53) if health centres routinely gathered NCD data from health posts and by up to 48% (OR=.48, CI 1.24 to 1.78) if they provided general (ie, non-NCD specific) training to HEWs. NCD preventive service uptake also increased if the HEW held level IV qualification (OR=1.32, CI 1.06 to 1.65) and lived in the community (OR=1.24, CI 1.03 to 1.49). Conversely, if facilities delayed general performance reviews of HEWs by a month, uptake of NCD prevention services decreased by 6% (OR=0.94, CI 0.91 to 0.97). We observed that better HIV/AIDS programme performance was associated with a lower uptake of NCD preventive services (OR=0.15, CI 0.03 to 0.85). CONCLUSION: Despite efforts to improve NCD services through the HEP, the coverage remains limited. A strong HEP is good for the uptake of NCD preventive services. However, integration requires a careful balance, so that the success already recorded for some existing programmes is not lost.

Using historical vital statistics to predict the distribution of under-five mortality by cause.

BACKGROUND: Cause-specific mortality data is essential for planning intervention programs to reduce mortality in the under age five years population (under-five). However, there is a critical paucity of such information for most of the developing world, particularly where progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) has been slow. This paper presents a predictive cause of death model for under-five mortality based on historical vital statistics and discusses the utility of the model in generating information that could accelerate progress towards MDG 4. METHODS: Over 1400 country years of vital statistics from 34 countries collected over a period of nearly a century were analyzed to develop relationships between levels of under-five mortality, related mortality ratios, and proportionate mortality from four cause groups: perinatal conditions; diarrhea and lower respiratory infections; congenital anomalies; and all other causes of death. A system of multiple equations with cross-equation parameter restrictions and correlated error terms was developed to predict proportionate mortality by cause based on given measures of under-five mortality. The strength of the predictive model was tested through internal and external cross-validation techniques. Modeled cause-specific mortality estimates for major regions in Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America are presented to illustrate its application across a range of under-five mortality rates. RESULTS: Consistent and plausible trends and relationships are observed from historical data. High mortality rates are associated with increased proportions of deaths from diarrhea and lower respiratory infections. Perinatal conditions assume importance as a proportionate cause at under-five mortality rates below 60 per 1000 live births. Internal and external validation confirms strength and consistency of the predictive model. Model application at regional level demonstrates heterogeneity and non-linearity in cause-composition arising from the range of under-five mortality rates and related mortality ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Historical analyses suggest that under-five mortality transitions are associated with significant changes in cause of death composition. Sub-national differentials in under-five mortality rates could require intervention programs targeted to address specific cause distributions. The predictive model could, therefore, help set broad priorities for interventions at the local level based on periodic under-five mortality measurement. Given current resource constraints, such priority setting mechanisms are essential to accelerate reductions in under-five mortality.

Efficiency and productivity of health systems in prevention and control of non-communicable diseases in China, 2008-2015.

This article examines the health system performance impact of China's new round of healthcare reform adopted in 2009. Specifically, we evaluated productivity and efficiency of health production pre- and post-reform period, compared the effects across all the 31 provinces of mainland China and identified potential determinants. As a major source of disability and premature mortality in China, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) had been the focus of our analysis, and the period during 2008-2015 was considered to allow enough time for the policy to have meaningful impact on the country's health system. Productivity and efficiency performance were analyzed using a bootstrapping data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) techniques, while a Tobit regression technique was used to identify determinants of inefficiency. We find that after the reform efficiency and productivity had declined across large number of provinces. Mean overall technical efficiency (OTE) post 2009 was about 30% lower than the potential maximum capacity, while productivity also fell at a rate of 7.57% per annum. Trends in productivity and efficiency performance were largely linked to patterns of scale of technological change observed during the study period. The findings suggest that efficiency and productivity can be improved through enhancing financial security, optimizing health resource allocation, particularly between human resources for health and hospital beds, and expanding cost-effective technology within the health sector. Better urban planning practices and investment in education were also found to contribute to improved efficiency of NCDs services.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. RESULTS: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. CONCLUSION: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

Risk factors for COVID-19 infection, disease severity and related deaths in Africa: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive evidence on risk factors for transmission, disease severity and COVID-19 related deaths in Africa. DESIGN: A systematic review has been conducted to synthesise existing evidence on risk factors affecting COVID-19 outcomes across Africa. DATA SOURCES: Data were systematically searched from MEDLINE, Scopus, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies for review were included if they were published in English and reported at least one risk factor and/or one health outcome. We included all relevant literature published up until 11 August 2020. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We performed a systematic narrative synthesis to describe the available studies for each outcome. Data were extracted using a standardised Joanna Briggs Institute data extraction form. RESULTS: Fifteen articles met the inclusion criteria of which four were exclusively on Africa and the remaining 11 papers had a global focus with some data from Africa. Higher rates of infection in Africa are associated with high population density, urbanisation, transport connectivity, high volume of tourism and international trade, and high level of economic and political openness. Limited or poor access to healthcare are also associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates. Older people and individuals with chronic conditions such as HIV, tuberculosis and anaemia experience severe forms COVID-19 leading to hospitalisation and death. Similarly, high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high prevalence of tobacco consumption and low levels of expenditure on health and low levels of global health security score contribute to COVID-19 related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic, institutional, ecological, health system and politico-economic factors influenced the spectrum of COVID-19 infection, severity and death. We recommend multidisciplinary and integrated approaches to mitigate the identified factors and strengthen effective prevention strategies.

Health system productivity in China: a comparison of pre- and post-2009 healthcare reform.

In 2009, China launched an ambitious health system reform that combined extending social health insurance scheme with improving efficiency, access and quality of care in the country. To assess the impact of the policy on efficiency and productivity change, we investigated the country's health system performance at provincial levels during pre- and post-reform period. Outputs were measured using multiple health outcomes (namely, non-communicable diseases free healthy life years and infant and maternal survival rates), while health expenditure, number of medical personnel and hospital beds per 1000 residents were used as proxy measures for health inputs. Changes in productivity were quantified using a bootstrap Malmquist productivity index (MPI). The analysis focused on the period between 2004 and 2015. This was to capture pre- and post-policy implementation experience and to ensure that enough time was allowed for the policy to work through. Finally, a bootstrap Tobit regression model for panel data was applied to examine the potential effects of contextual factors on productivity change. The result showed that the reform has had negative effects on productivity. Only scale efficiency had improved steadily, but the decline in the scale of technological change observed during the same period meant that the progress in scale efficiency had been masked. Better economic performance (as measured by per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)) and higher human resource to capital investment ratio (as measured by density of medical staff per hospital beds) tended to boost productivity growth, while population aging, low educational attainment and higher percentage of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments had adverse effects. Improving health system productivity in China requires improving financial risk protection and maintaining proper balance between human and capital investment in the country.

Mind the gap: equity and trends in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health services in 54 Countdown countries.

BACKGROUND: Increasing the coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health interventions is essential if Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 are to be reached. We have assessed equity and trends in coverage rates of a key set of interventions through a summary index, to provide overall insight into past performance and progress perspectives. METHODS: Data from household surveys from 54 countries in the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival initiative during 1990-2006 were used to compute an aggregate coverage index based on four intervention areas: family planning, maternal and newborn care, immunisation, and treatment of sick children. The four areas were given equal weight in the computation of the index. Standard measures were applied to assess current levels and trends in the coverage gap measure by wealth quintile. FINDINGS: The overall size of the coverage gap ranged from less than 20% in Tajikistan and Peru to over 70% in Ethiopia and Chad, with a mean of 43% for the most recent surveys in the 54 countries. Large intracountry differences were noted, with a country mean coverage gap of 54% for the poorest quintiles of the population and 29% for the wealthiest. Differences between the poorest and the wealthiest were largest for the maternal and newborn health intervention area and smallest for immunisation. In 40 countries with more than one survey, the coverage gap had decreased by an average of 0.9 percentage points per year since the early 1990s. Declines greater than 2 percentage points per year were seen in only three countries after 1995: Cambodia, Mozambique, and Nepal. Country inequity patterns were remarkably persistant over time, with only gradual changes from top inequity (disproportionately smaller gap for the wealthiest) in countries with coverage gaps exceeding 40%, to linear patterns and bottom inequity (disproportionately greater gap for the poorest) in surveys with gaps below 40%. INTERPRETATION: Despite most Countdown countries having made gradual progress since 1990, coverage gaps for key interventions remain wide and, in most such countries, the pace of decline needs to be more than doubled to reach levels of coverage of these and other interventions needed in the context of MDG 4 and 5. In general, in-country patterns of inequality are consistant and change only gradually if at all, which has implications for the targeting of interventions.

The health worker shortage in Africa: are enough physicians and nurses being trained?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate systematically the inflow and outflow of health workers in Africa and examine whether current levels of pre-service training in the region suffice to address this serious problem, taking into account population increases and attrition of health workers due to premature death, retirement, resignation and dismissal. METHODS: Data on the current numbers and types of health workers and outputs from training programmes are from the 2005 WHO health workforce and training institutions' surveys. Supplementary information on population estimates and mortality is from the United Nations Population Division and WHO databases, respectively, and information on worker attrition was obtained from the published literature. Because of shortages of data in some settings, the study was restricted to 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. FINDINGS: Our results suggest that the health workforce shortage in Africa is even more critical than previously estimated. In 10 of the 12 countries studied, current pre-service training is insufficient to maintain the existing density of health workers once all causes of attrition are taken into account. Even if attrition were limited to involuntary factors such as premature mortality, with current workforce training patterns it would take 36 years for physicians and 29 years for nurses and midwives to reach WHO's recent target of 2.28 professionals per 1000 population for the countries taken as a whole--and some countries would never reach it. CONCLUSION: Pre-service training needs to be expanded as well as combined with other measures to increase health worker inflow and reduce the rate of outflow.

Technical and scale efficiency of provincial health systems in China: a bootstrapping data envelopment analysis.

OBJECTIVE: With escalating health expenditures and increasing health needs, improving health system performance has become imperative in China and internationally. The objective of this study is to examine the efficiency of China's health system and to understand the underlying causes of the variation in efficiency across provinces. SETTING: A system-wide perspective is adopted, focusing on performance in maternal health, child health and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the 31 provinces of mainland China during 2015. METHODS: Analyses were performed using bootstrapping data envelopment technique. Health outcomes were measured by infant survival rates, maternal survival rates and healthy life years calculated only considering NCDs. Health inputs were measured using health expenditure, and density of medical personnel and hospital beds. The model also examined the impact of environmental factors on health system efficiency. RESULTS: Due to wide-spread scale inefficiency in the country, the average bias-corrected overall technical efficiency (OTE) was 0.8022 (95% CI values ranging from 0.7251 to 0.8492). Socioeconomic status, hospitalisation rate and share of out-of-pocket expenditures were significant determinants of OTE. Nearly 60% of the provinces operated at a decreasing return to scale, meaning that a gain in efficiency could be achieved only through downsizing the scale of operation. CONCLUSIONS: Given the pervasive nature of diminishing returns across provinces, health policy makers must explore the optimum operational scale which is people-centred and focused on prevention, rather than on treatment, of diseases. Moreover, due consideration should be afforded to social determinants of health and health financing arrangements to complement health-sector based reforms and meet the ambitious goals of the Healthy China 2030 Plan.