Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.

The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.

Dynamics of malaria vector composition and Plasmodium falciparum infection in mainland Tanzania: 2017-2021 data from the national malaria vector entomological surveillance.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, Tanzania National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) established a longitudinal malaria vector entomological surveillance (MVES). The MVES is aimed at a periodical assessment of malaria vector composition and abundance, feeding and resting behaviours, and Plasmodium falciparum infection in different malaria epidemiological strata to guide the NMCP on the deployment of appropriate malaria vector interventions. This work details the dynamics of malaria vector composition and transmission in different malaria epidemiological strata. METHODS: The MVES was conducted from 32 sentinel district councils across the country. Mosquitoes were collected by the trained community members and supervised by the NMCP and research institutions. Three consecutive night catches (indoor collection with CDC light trap and indoor/outdoor collection using bucket traps) were conducted monthly in three different households selected randomly from two to three wards within each district council. Collected mosquitoes were sorted and morphologically identified in the field. Thereafter, the samples were sent to the laboratory for molecular characterization using qPCR for species identification and detection of P. falciparum infections (sporozoites). ELISA technique was deployed for blood meal analysis from samples of blood-fed mosquitoes to determine the blood meal indices (BMI). RESULTS: A total of 63,226 mosquitoes were collected in 32 district councils from January 2017 to December 2021. Out of which, 39,279 (62%), 20,983 (33%) and 2964 (5%) were morphologically identified as Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), Anopheles funestus s.l., and as other Anopheles species, respectively. Out of 28,795 laboratory amplified mosquitoes, 13,645 (47%) were confirmed to be Anopheles arabiensis, 9904 (34%) as An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.), and 5193 (19%) as An. gambiae s.s. The combined average entomological inoculation rates (EIR) were 0.46 (95% CI 0.028-0.928) for An. gambiae s.s., 0.836 (95% CI 0.138-1.559) for An. arabiensis, and 0.58 (95% CI 0.165-0.971) for An. funestus s.s. with variations across different malaria transmission strata. Anopheles funestus s.s. and An. arabiensis were predominant in the Lake and South-Eastern zones, respectively, mostly in high malaria transmission areas. Monthly mosquito densities displayed seasonal patterns, with two peaks following the rainy seasons, varying slightly across species and district councils. CONCLUSION: Anopheles arabiensis remains the predominant vector species followed by An. funestus s.s. in the country. Therefore, strengthening integrated vector management including larval source management is recommended to address outdoor transmission by An. arabiensis to interrupt transmission particularly where EIR is greater than the required elimination threshold of less than one (< 1) to substantially reduce the prevalence of malaria infection.

Mosquito control by abatement programmes in the United States: perspectives and lessons for countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Africa and the United States are both large, heterogeneous geographies with a diverse range of ecologies, climates and mosquito species diversity which contribute to disease transmission and nuisance biting. In the United States, mosquito control is nationally, and regionally coordinated and in so much as the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provides guidance, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides pesticide registration, and the states provide legal authority and oversight, the implementation is usually decentralized to the state, county, or city level. Mosquito control operations are organized, in most instances, into fully independent mosquito abatement districts, public works departments, local health departments. In some cases, municipalities engage independent private contractors to undertake mosquito control within their jurisdictions. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where most vector-borne disease endemic countries lie, mosquito control is organized centrally at the national level. In this model, the disease control programmes (national malaria control programmes or national malaria elimination programmes (NMCP/NMEP)) are embedded within the central governments' ministries of health (MoHs) and drive vector control policy development and implementation. Because of the high disease burden and limited resources, the primary endpoint of mosquito control in these settings is reduction of mosquito borne diseases, primarily, malaria. In the United States, however, the endpoint is mosquito control, therefore, significant (or even greater) emphasis is laid on nuisance mosquitoes as much as disease vectors. The authors detail experiences and learnings gathered by the delegation of African vector control professionals that participated in a formal exchange programme initiated by the Pan-African Mosquito Control Association (PAMCA), the University of Notre Dame, and members of the American Mosquito Control Association (AMCA), in the United States between the year 2021 and 2022. The authors highlight the key components of mosquito control operations in the United States and compare them to mosquito control programmes in SSA countries endemic for vector-borne diseases, deriving important lessons that could be useful for vector control in SSA.

Socio-demographic trends in malaria knowledge and implications for behaviour change interventions in Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Zanzibar is among the few places within East Africa that have documented a significant reduction of malaria morbidity and mortality. Despite tremendous gains over the past decade, malaria transmission still persists in Zanzibar. This study aimed at understanding levels of malaria knowledge to provide recommendations that can be used to reinforce and scale up targeted malaria social and behaviour change interventions. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional survey was conducted through an administered questionnaire to 431 households selected randomly. The interviewees were the heads of household or representative adults above 18 years. This study investigated the levels of knowledge about the causes, symptoms, and prevention of malaria in areas with high (> 1.9 per 1000) and low (< 1 per 1000) incidence of local malaria cases. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to compute the composite variable of each category. Descriptive statistics were calculated to understand variables of interest between low and high transmission areas. Multinomial logistic regression model was used to compare knowledge on malaria based on key variables. RESULTS: A total of 431 heads of households were interviewed. Respondent age, education level, and wealth status were significantly associated with variations in level of malaria knowledge. Old age was found to be significantly associated with low knowledge of malaria (P < 0.001). The majority of study participants who had secondary and higher education levels had good knowledge of malaria (P < 0.006). Participants characterized as middle-income had good knowledge compared to those characterized as low-income (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The study identified existing gaps in malaria knowledge in low and high transmission areas. Low levels of malaria knowledge were documented among elderly and populations with lower education and income levels. There is a need to extend mobilization, advocacy, and expand channels of communication to reach all community members. The reported gaps in knowledge are important to consider when designing strategies to engage communities in malaria elimination in Zanzibar. Tailored social and behavioural change interventions aiming to increase malaria knowledge could enhance the uptake of malaria prevention services in the community.

Stakeholder perspectives on a door-to-door intervention to increase community engagement for malaria elimination in Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2021 World Health Organization (WHO) World Malaria Report indicates a slowing in the decline of malaria incidence since 2015. Malaria prevalence in Zanzibar has been maintained at less than 1% since 2010, however from 2018 to 2021, the annual number of reported malaria cases has gradually increased from 4106 to 9290. Community engagement has been emphasized by the WHO for reducing malaria transmission. To better understand the potential for a door-to-door approach for malaria, a three-month pilot programme was carried out. This qualitative study aimed at understanding stakeholder experiences with the pilot programme and considerations for its implementation. METHODS: Through multistage sampling, four shehias (wards-the lowest administrative structure) with comparatively high (> 1.9 per 1000) and four with low (< 1 per 1000) incidence of local malaria cases were selected and involved in a door-to-door pilot intervention. The qualitative study was conducted after the pilot intervention and employed focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. All field notes were written on paper and audiotaped using digital audio-recorders. Summaries were developed by integrating field notes with reviews of recordings; themes were developed based on the topics identified a priori. Responses for each theme were summarized using an iterative process. RESULTS: Most community members reported high levels of acceptance of door-to-door interventions. Some factors that might affect implementation of door-to-door include, low risk perception of the disease, local beliefs and practice, lack of initiative from the programme level to involve communities, and political instability during the election period. All Community Health Volunteers (CHVs) recommended this approach for community engagement, however, ensuring adequate resources was identified as a key factor for ensuring its sustainability. CONCLUSION: The door-to-door intervention was perceived as helpful for promoting community engagement. There are several factors to consider including ensuring that CHVs are provided with adequate education, regular supervision, and have access to essential resources. Community leaders should be fully involved in choosing CHVs that are acceptable to the community. To ensure sustainability, the government should allocate sufficient resources and improve coordination systems.

Outdoor biting and pyrethroid resistance as potential drivers of persistent malaria transmission in Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Low-level of malaria transmission persist in Zanzibar despite high coverage of core vector control interventions. This study was carried out in hot-spot sites to better understand entomological factors that may contribute to residual malaria transmission in Zanzibar. METHODS: A total of 135 households were randomly selected from six sites and consented to participate with 20-25 households per site. Mosquito vector surveillance was carried out indoors and outdoors from 6:00 pm-7:00 am using miniaturized double net trap (DN-Mini™). Additional collections were done indoors using mouth aspirators to retrieve resting mosquitoes from wall and ceiling surfaces, and outdoors using resting bucket and pit traps. All collected mosquitoes were morphologically and genetically (PCR) analysed in the laboratory. All collected anopheline and blood-fed mosquitoes were analysed for sporozoite infection and blood meal host preferences by Circumsporozoite Protein ELISA and blood meal ELISA, respectively. The differences between indoor and outdoor mosquito biting rates were analysed using generalized linear mixed models. Levels of resistance to commonly used insecticides were quantified by WHO susceptibility tests. RESULTS: Out of 704 malaria vectors collected across 135 households, PCR analysis shows that 98.60% were Anopheles arabiensis, 0.6% Anopheles merus and 0.6% Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Sporozoite ELISA analysis indicates that all mosquitoes were negative for the malaria parasite. The results show that more An. arabiensis were collected outdoor (~ 85%) compared to indoor (~ 15%). Furthermore, large numbers of An. arabiensis were caught in outdoor resting sites, where the pit trap (67.2%) collected more mosquitoes compared to the outdoor DN-Mini trap (32.8%). Nearly two-thirds (60.7%) of blood-fed mosquitoes had obtained blood meals from non-human hosts. Mosquitoes displayed non-uniform susceptibility status and resistance intensity among the tested insecticides across the study sites to all WHO recommended insecticides across the study sites. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that in contexts such as Zanzibar, testing of novel techniques to complement indoor protection and targeting outdoor biting and/or resting mosquitoes, may be warranted to complement existing interventions and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. The study highlights the need to implement novel interventions and/or adaptations of strategies that can target outdoors biting mosquitoes.

Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology.

Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens that infect humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach. Unlike most previous models, this framework considers the behavioral states and state transitions of adult mosquitoes through a sequence of activity bouts. We developed a new framework for individual-based simulation models called MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator). In MBITES, it is possible to build models that simulate the behavior and ecology of adult mosquitoes in exquisite detail on complex resource landscapes generated by spatial point processes. We also developed an ordinary differential equation model which is the Kolmogorov forward equations for models developed in MBITES under a specific set of simplifying assumptions. While mosquito infection and pathogen development are one possible part of a mosquito's state, that is not our main focus. Using extensive simulation using some models developed in MBITES, we show that vectorial capacity can be understood as an emergent property of simple behavioral algorithms interacting with complex resource landscapes, and that relative density or sparsity of resources and the need to search can have profound consequences for mosquito populations' capacity to transmit pathogens.

Methods and indicators for measuring patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors.

BACKGROUND: Effective targeting and evaluation of interventions that protect against adult malaria vectors requires an understanding of how gaps in personal protection arise. An improved understanding of human and mosquito behaviour, and how they overlap in time and space, is critical to estimating the impact of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and determining when and where supplemental personal protection tools are needed. Methods for weighting estimates of human exposure to biting Anopheles mosquitoes according to where people spend their time were first developed over half a century ago. However, crude indoor and outdoor biting rates are still commonly interpreted as indicative of human-vector contact patterns without any adjustment for human behaviour or the personal protection effects of ITNs. MAIN TEXT: A small number of human behavioural variables capturing the distribution of human populations indoors and outdoors, whether they are awake or asleep, and if and when they use an ITN over the course of the night, can enable a more accurate representation of human biting exposure patterns. However, to date no clear guidance is available on what data should be collected, what indicators should be reported, or how they should be calculated. This article presents an integrated perspective on relevant indicators of human-vector interactions, the critical entomological and human behavioural data elements required to quantify human-vector interactions, and recommendations for collecting and analysing such data. CONCLUSIONS: If collected and used consistently, this information can contribute to an improved understanding of how malaria transmission persists in the context of current intervention tools, how exposure patterns may change as new vector control tools are introduced, and the potential impact and limitations of these tools. This article is intended to consolidate understanding around work on this topic to date and provide a consistent framework for building upon it. Additional work is needed to address remaining questions, including further development and validation of methods for entomological and human behavioural data collection and analysis.

Correction to: Methods and indicators for measuring patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors in Zanzibar and implications for malaria elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND: Zanzibar provides a good case study for malaria elimination. The islands have experienced a dramatic reduction in malaria burden since the introduction of effective vector control interventions and case management. Malaria prevalence has now been maintained below 1% for the past decade and the islands can feasibly aim for elimination. METHODS: To better understand factors that may contribute to remaining low-level malaria transmission in Zanzibar, layered human behavioural and entomological research was conducted between December 2016 and December 2017 in 135 randomly selected households across six administrative wards. The study included: (1) household surveys, (2) structured household observations of nighttime activity and sleeping patterns, and (3) paired indoor and outdoor mosquito collections. Entomological and human behavioural data were integrated to provide weighted estimates of exposure to vector bites, accounting for proportions of people indoors or outdoors, and protected by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) each hour of the night. RESULTS: Overall, 92% of female Anopheles mosquitoes were caught in the rainy season compared to 8% in the dry season and 72% were caught outdoors compared to 28% indoors. For individual ITN users, ITNs prevented an estimated two-thirds (66%) of exposure to vector bites and nearly three quarters (73%) of residual exposure was estimated to occur outdoors. Based on observed levels of ITN use in the study sites, the population-wide mean personal protection provided by ITNs was 42%. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: This study identified gaps in malaria prevention in Zanzibar with results directly applicable for improving ongoing programme activities. While overall biting risk was low, the most notable finding was that current levels of ITN use are estimated to prevent less than half of exposure to malaria vector bites. Variation in ITN use across sites and seasons suggests that additional gains could be made through targeted social and behaviour change interventions. However, even for ITN users, gaps in protection remain, with a majority of exposure to vector bites occurring outdoors before going to sleep. Supplemental interventions targeting outdoor exposure to malaria vectors, and groups that may be at increased risk of exposure to malaria vectors, should be explored.

Autodissemination of pyriproxyfen suppresses stable populations of Anopheles arabiensis under semi-controlled settings.

BACKGROUND: Autodissemination of pyriproxyfen (PPF), i.e. co-opting adult female mosquitoes to transfer the insect growth regulator, pyriproxyfen (PPF) to their aquatic habitats has been demonstrated for Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes. This approach, could potentially enable high coverage of aquatic mosquito habitats, including those hard to locate or reach via conventional larviciding. This study demonstrated impacts of autodissemination in crashing a stable and self-sustaining population of the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis under semi-field conditions in Tanzania. METHODS: Self-propagating populations of An. arabiensis were established inside large semi-field cages. Larvae fed on naturally occurring food in 20 aquatic habitats in two study chambers (9.6 × 9.6 m each), while emerging adults fed on tethered cattle. The mosquito population was monitored using emergence traps and human landing catches, each time returning captured adults into the chambers. Once the population was stable (after 23 filial generations), PPF dissemination devices (i.e. four clay pots each treated with 0.2-0.3 g PPF) were introduced into one of the chambers (treatment) and their impact monitored in parallel with untreated chamber (control). RESULTS: Daily adult emergence was similar between control and treatment chambers, with average (± SE) of 14.22 ± 0.70 and 12.62 ± 0.74 mosquitoes/trap, respectively, before treatment. Three months post-treatment, mean number of adult An. arabiensis emerging from the habitats was 5.22 ± 0.42 in control and 0.14 ± 0.04 in treatment chambers. This was equivalent to > 97% suppression in treatment chamber without re-treatment of the clay pots. Similarly, the number of mosquitoes attempting to bite volunteers inside the treatment chamber decreased to zero, 6 months post-exposure (i.e. 100% suppression). In contrast, biting rates in control rose to 53.75 ± 3.07 per volunteer over the same period. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate effective suppression of stable populations of malaria vectors using a small number of simple autodissemination devices, from which adult mosquitoes propagated pyriproxyfen to contaminate aquatic habitats in the system. This is the first proof that autodissemination can amplify treatment coverage and deplete malaria vector populations. Field trials are necessary to validate these results, and assess impact of autodissemination as a complementary malaria intervention.

Wash-resistance of pirimiphos-methyl insecticide treatments of window screens and eave baffles for killing indoor-feeding malaria vector mosquitoes: an experimental hut trial, South East of Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of long-lasting insecticidal-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) for malaria control is threatened by resistance to commonly used pyrethroid insecticides. Rotations, mosaics, combinations, or mixtures of insecticides from different complementary classes are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for mitigating against resistance, but many of the alternatives to pyrethroids are prohibitively expensive to apply in large national IRS campaigns. Recent evaluations of window screens and eave baffles (WSEBs) treated with pirimiphos-methyl (PM), to selectively target insecticides inside houses, demonstrated malaria vector mortality rates equivalent or superior to IRS. However, the durability of efficacy when co-applied with polyacrylate-binding agents (BA) remains to be established. This study evaluated whether WSEBs, co-treated with PM and BA have comparable wash resistance to LLINs and might therefore remain insecticidal for years rather than months. METHODS: WHO-recommended wire ball assays of insecticidal efficacy were applied to polyester netting treated with or without BA plus 1 or 2 g/sq m PM. They were then tested for insecticidal efficacy using fully susceptible insectary-reared Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, following 0, 5, 10, 15, then 20 washes as per WHO-recommended protocols for accelerated ageing of LLINs. This was followed by a small-scale field trial in experimental huts to measure malaria vector mortality achieved by polyester netting WSEBs treated with BA and 2 g/sq m PM after 0, 10 and then 20 standardized washes, alongside recently applied IRS using PM. RESULTS: Co-treatment with BA and either dosage of PM remained insecticidal over 20 washes in the laboratory. In experimental huts, WSEBs treated with PM plus BA consistently killed similar proportions of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes to PM-IRS (both consistently ≥ 94%), even after 20 washes. CONCLUSION: Co-treating WSEBs with both PM and BA results in wash-resistant insecticidal activity comparable with LLINs. Insecticide treatments for WSEBs may potentially last for years rather than months, therefore, reducing insecticide consumption by an order of magnitude relative to IRS. However, durability of WSEBs will still have to be assessed in real houses under representative field conditions of exposure to wear and tear, sunlight and rain.

Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: As malaria prevalence declines in many parts of the world due to widescale control efforts and as drug-resistant parasites begin to emerge, a quantitative understanding of human movement is becoming increasingly relevant to malaria control. However, despite its importance, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding human movement, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: A quantitative survey of human movement patterns was conducted in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Mali, Burkina Faso, Zambia, and Tanzania, with three to five survey locations chosen in each country. Questions were included on demographic and trip details, malaria risk behaviour, children accompanying travellers, and mobile phone usage to enable phone signal data to be better correlated with movement. A total of 4352 individuals were interviewed and 6411 trips recorded. RESULTS: A cluster analysis of trips highlighted two distinct traveller groups of relevance to malaria transmission: women travelling with children (in all four countries) and youth workers (in Mali). Women travelling with children were more likely to travel to areas of relatively high malaria prevalence in Mali (OR = 4.46, 95% CI = 3.42-5.83), Burkina Faso (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23-1.58), Zambia (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.20-1.89), and Tanzania (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.71-3.05) compared to other travellers. They were also more likely to own bed nets in Burkina Faso (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.25-2.53) and Zambia (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.34 2.27), and less likely to own a mobile phone in Mali (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.39-0.65), Burkina Faso (OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.30-0.52), and Zambia (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.47-0.76). Malian youth workers were more likely to travel to areas of relatively high malaria prevalence (OR = 23, 95% CI = 17-31) and for longer durations (mean of 70 days cf 21 days, p < 0.001) compared to other travellers. CONCLUSIONS: Women travelling with children were a remarkably consistent traveller group across all four countries surveyed. They are expected to contribute greatly towards spatial malaria transmission because the children they travel with tend to have high parasite prevalence. Youth workers were a significant traveller group in Mali and are expected to contribute greatly to spatial malaria transmission because their movements correlate with seasonal rains and hence peak mosquito densities. Interventions aimed at interrupting spatial transmission of parasites should consider these traveller groups.

The epidemiology of residual Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and infection burden in an African city with high coverage of multiple vector control measures.

BACKGROUND: In the Tanzanian city of Dar es Salaam, high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), larvicide application (LA) and mosquito-proofed housing, was complemented with improved access to artemisinin-based combination therapy and rapid diagnostic tests by the end of 2012. METHODS: Three rounds of city-wide, cluster-sampled cross-sectional surveys of malaria parasite infection status, spanning 2010 to 2012, were complemented by two series of high-resolution, longitudinal surveys of vector density. RESULTS: Larvicide application using a granule formulation of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) had no effect upon either vector density (P = 0.820) or infection prevalence (P = 0.325) when managed by a private-sector contractor. Infection prevalence rebounded back to 13.8 % in 2010, compared with <2 % at the end of a previous Bti LA evaluation in 2008. Following transition to management by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW), LA consistently reduced vector densities, first using the same Bti granule in early 2011 [odds ratio (OR) (95 % confidence interval (CI)) = 0.31 (0.14, 0.71), P = 0.0053] and then a pre-diluted aqueous suspension formulation from mid 2011 onwards [OR (95 % CI) = 0.15 (0.07, 0.30), P â‰ª 0.000001]. While LA by MoHSW with the granule formulation was associated with reduced infection prevalence [OR (95 % CI) = 0.26 (0.12, 0.56), P = 0.00040], subsequent liquid suspension use, following a mass distribution to achieve universal coverage of LLINs that reduced vector density [OR (95 % CI) = 0.72 (0.51, 1.01), P = 0.057] and prevalence [OR (95 % CI) = 0.80 (0.69, 0.91), P = 0.0013], was not associated with further prevalence reduction (P = 0.836). Sleeping inside houses with complete window screens only reduced infection risk [OR (95 % CI) = 0.71 (0.62, 0.82), P = 0.0000036] if the evenings and mornings were also spent indoors. Furthermore, infection risk was only associated with local vector density [OR (95 % CI) = 6.99 (1.12, 43.7) at one vector mosquito per trap per night, P = 0.037] among the minority (14 %) of households lacking screening. Despite attenuation of malaria transmission and immunity, 88 % of infected residents experienced no recent fever, only 0.4 % of these afebrile cases had been treated for malaria, and prevalence remained high (9.9 %) at the end of the study. CONCLUSIONS: While existing vector control interventions have dramatically attenuated malaria transmission in Dar es Salaam, further scale-up and additional measures to protect against mosquito bites outdoors are desirable. Accelerated elimination of chronic human infections persisting at high prevalence will require active, population-wide campaigns with curative drugs.

Effects of a new outdoor mosquito control device, the mosquito landing box, on densities and survival of the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis, inside controlled semi-field settings.

BACKGROUND: The significance of malaria transmission occurring outdoors has risen even in areas where indoor interventions such as long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying are common. The actual contamination rates and effectiveness of recently developed outdoor mosquito control device, the mosquito landing box (MLB), on densities and daily survival of host-seeking laboratory Anopheles arabiensis, which readily bites humans outdoors was demonstrated. METHODS: Experiments were conducted in large semi-field systems (SFS) with human volunteers inside, to mimic natural ecosystems, and using MLBs baited with natural or synthetic human odours and carbon dioxide. The MLBs were dusted with 10% pyriproxyfen (PPF) or entomopathogenic fungi (Metarhizium anisopliae) spores to mark mosquitoes physically contacting the devices. Each night, 400 laboratory-reared An. arabiensis females were released in one SFS chamber with two MLBs, and another chamber without MLBs (control). Mosquitoes were individually recaptured while attempting to bite volunteers inside SFS or by aspiration from SFS walls. Mosquitoes from chambers with PPF-treated MLBs and respective controls were individually dipped in water-filled cups containing ten conspecific third-instar larvae, whose subsequent development was monitored. Mosquitoes recaptured from chambers with fungi-treated MLBs were observed for fungal hyphal growth on their cadavers. Separately, effects on daily survival were determined by exposing An. arabiensis in chambers having MLBs treated with 5% pirimiphos methyl compared to chambers without MLBs (control), after which the mosquitoes were recaptured and monitored individually until they died. RESULTS: Up to 63% (152/240) and 43% (92/210) of mosquitoes recaptured inside treatment chambers were contaminated with pyriproxyfen and M. anisopliae, respectively, compared to 8% (19/240) and 0% (0/164) in controls. The mean number of larvae emerging from cups in which adults from chambers with PPF-treated MLBs were dipped was significantly lower [0.75 (0.50-1.01)], than in controls [28.79 (28.32-29.26)], P < 0.001). Daily survival of mosquitoes exposed to 5% pirimiphos methyl was nearly two-fold lower than controls [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.748 (1.551-1.920), P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: High contamination rates in exposed mosquitoes even in presence of humans, demonstrates potential of MLBs for controlling outdoor-biting malaria vectors, either by reducing their survival or directly killing host-seeking mosquitoes. The MLBs also have potential for dispensing filial infanticides, such as PPF, which mosquitoes can transmit to their aquatic habitats for mosquito population control.

Effective autodissemination of pyriproxyfen to breeding sites by the exophilic malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in semi-field settings in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Malaria vector control strategies that target adult female mosquitoes are challenged by the emergence of insecticide resistance and behavioural resilience. Conventional larviciding is restricted by high operational costs and inadequate knowledge of mosquito-breeding habitats in rural settings that might be overcome by the juvenile hormone analogue, Pyriproxyfen (PPF). This study assessed the potential for Anopheles arabiensis to pick up and transfer lethal doses of PPF from contamination sites to their breeding habitats (i.e. autodissemination of PPF). METHODS: A semi-field system (SFS) with four identical separate chambers was used to evaluate PPF-treated clay pots for delivering PPF to resting adult female mosquitoes for subsequent autodissemination to artificial breeding habitats within the chambers. In each chamber, a tethered cow provided blood meals to laboratory-reared, unfed female An. arabiensis released in the SFS. In PPF-treated chambers, clay pot linings were dusted with 0.2 - 0.3 g AI PPF per pot. Pupae were removed from the artificial habitats daily, and emergence rates calculated. Impact of PPF on emergence was determined by comparing treatment with an appropriate control group. RESULTS: Mean (95% CI) adult emergence rates were (0.21 ± 0.299) and (0.95 ± 0.39) from PPF-treated and controls respectively (p < 0.0001). Laboratory bioassay of water samples from artificial habitats in these experiments resulted in significantly lower emergence rates in treated chambers (0.16 ± 0.23) compared to controls 0.97 ± 0.05) (p < 0.0001). In experiments where no mosquitoes introduced, there were no significant differences between control and treatment, indicating that transfer of PPF to breeding sites only occurred when mosquitoes were present; i.e. that autodissemination had occurred. Treatment of a single clay pot reduced adult emergence in six habitats to (0.34 ± 0.13) compared to (0.98 ± 0.02) in the controls (p < 0.0001), showing a high level of habitats coverage amplification of the autodissemination event. CONCLUSION: The study provides proof of principle for the autodissemination of PPF to breeding habitats by malaria vectors. These findings highlight the potential for this technique for outdoor control of malaria vectors and call for the testing of this technique in field trials.

Increasing role of Anopheles funestus and Anopheles arabiensis in malaria transmission in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: In order to sustain the gains achieved by current malaria control strategies, robust surveillance systems that monitor dynamics of vectors and their roles in malaria transmission over time are essential. This longitudinal study demonstrates the trends in malaria vector dynamics and their relative contribution to malaria transmission in hyperendemic transmission settings in Tanzania. METHODS: The study was conducted in two villages within the Kilombero Valley, in rural Tanzania for five consecutive years (2008-2012). Seventy-two houses were selected per village and each house was sampled for mosquitoes monthly using a CDC light trap. Collected mosquitoes were assessed for species identity and sporozoite infection status using PCR and ELISA, respectively. Anopheles funestus and Anopheles arabiensis susceptibility to insecticides was assessed using WHO guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 100,810 malaria vectors were collected, of which 76% were Anopheles gambiae s. l. and 24% were An. funestus. Of all An. funestus samples that amplified with PCR (n = 2,737), 97% were An. funestus s.s., 2% were Anopheles rivorulum and 1% Anopheles leesoni. Whereas for An. gambiae s.l. (n = 8,117), 93% were An. arabiensis and 7% were Anopheles gambiae s.s. The proportion of An. gambiae s.s. identified by PCR (2,924) declined from 0.2% in the year 2008 to undetectable levels in 2012. Malaria transmission intensity significantly decreased from an EIR of 78.14 infectious bites/person/year in 2008 to 35 ib/p/yr in 2011 but rebounded to 226 ib/p/yr in 2012 coinciding with an increased role of An. funestus in malaria transmission. Insecticide susceptibility tests indicated high levels of resistance in An. funestus against deltamethrin (87%), permethrin (65%), lambda cyhalothrin (74%), bendiocarb (65%), and DDT (66%). Similarly, An. arabiensis showed insecticide resistance to deltamethrin (64%), permethrin (77%) and lambda cyhalothrin (42%) in 2014. CONCLUSION: The results indicate the continuing role of An. arabiensis and the increasing importance of An. funestus in malaria transmission, and pyrethroid resistance development in both species. Complementary vector control and surveillance tools are needed that target the ecology, behaviour and insecticide resistance management of these vector species, in order to preserve the efficacy of LLINs.

Comparative assessment of diverse strategies for malaria vector population control based on measured rates at which mosquitoes utilize targeted resource subsets.

BACKGROUND: Eliminating malaria requires vector control interventions that dramatically reduce adult mosquito population densities and survival rates. Indoor applications of insecticidal nets and sprays are effective against an important minority of mosquito species that rely heavily upon human blood and habitations for survival. However, complementary approaches are needed to tackle a broader diversity of less human-specialized vectors by killing them at other resource targets. METHODS: Impacts of strategies that target insecticides to humans or animals can be rationalized in terms of biological coverage of blood resources, quantified as proportional coverage of all blood resources mosquito vectors utilize. Here, this concept is adapted to enable impact prediction for diverse vector control strategies based on measurements of utilization rates for any definable, targetable resource subset, even if that overall resource is not quantifiable. RESULTS: The usefulness of this approach is illustrated by deriving utilization rate estimates for various blood, resting site, and sugar resource subsets from existing entomological survey data. Reported impacts of insecticidal nets upon human-feeding vectors, and insecticide-treated livestock upon animal-feeding vectors, are approximately consistent with model predictions based on measured utilization rates for those human and animal blood resource subsets. Utilization rates for artificial sugar baits compare well with blood resources, and are consistent with observed impact when insecticide is added. While existing data was used to indirectly measure utilization rates for a variety of resting site subsets, by comparison with measured rates of blood resource utilization in the same settings, current techniques for capturing resting mosquitoes underestimate this quantity, and reliance upon complex models with numerous input parameters may limit the applicability of this approach. CONCLUSIONS: While blood and sugar consumption can be readily quantified using existing methods for detecting natural markers or artificial tracers, improved techniques for labelling mosquitoes, or other arthropod pathogen vectors, will be required to assess vector control measures which target them when they utilize non-nutritional resources such as resting, oviposition, and mating sites.

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.