Restoration of linear disturbances from oil-and-gas exploration in boreal landscapes: How can network models help?

In western Canada, decades of oil-and-gas exploration have fragmented boreal landscapes with a dense network of linear forest disturbances (seismic lines). These seismic lines are implicated in the decline in wildlife populations that are adapted to function in unfragmented forest landscapes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances have led to a decline of woodland caribou populations due to increasing predator access to core caribou habitat. Restoration of seismic lines aims to reduce the landscape fragmentation and stop the decline of caribou populations. However, planning restoration in complex landscapes can be challenging because it must account for a multitude of diverse aspects. To assist with restoration planning, we present a spatial network optimization approach that selects restoration locations in a fragmented landscape while addressing key environmental and logistical constraints. We applied the model to develop restoration scenarios in the Redrock-Prairie Creek caribou range in northwestern Alberta, Canada, which includes a combination of caribou habitat and active oil-and-gas and timber extraction areas. Our study applies network optimization at two distinct scales to address both the broad-scale restoration policy planning and project-level constraints at the level of individual forest sites. We first delineated a contiguous set of coarse-scale regions where restoration is most cost-effective and used this solution to solve a fine-scale network optimization model that addresses environmental and logistical planning constraints at the level of forest patches. Our two-tiered approach helps address the challenges of fine-scale spatial optimization of restoration activities. An additional coarse-scale optimization step finds a feasible starting solution for the fine-scale restoration problem, which serves to reduce the time to find an optimal solution. The added coarse-scale spatial constraints also make the fine-scale restoration solution align with the coarse-scale landscape features, which helps address the broad-scale restoration policies. The approach is generalizable and applicable to assist restoration planning in other regions fragmented by oil-and-gas activities.

Short-Term Intraocular Pressure Rise during Locally Induced Force by Ophthalmologic Surgery Applications.

PURPOSE: Surgical or diagnostic procedures are often accompanied by a short-term increase in intraocular pressure (IOP). A short-term increase in IOP can occur during refractive procedures, vitreoretinal surgery, transillumination, photocoagulation, or cryocoagulation. A porcine eye model was chosen (n = 89) to compile comparable study data and to de termine correlations between the force induced and the resulting intraocular pressure while excluding the effect of surgeons. METHODS: The IOP was measured in the anterior chamber. IOP changes were induced by applying an external force and measured when using a cannula, trocar, and cryocoagulation (n = 32), and correlations between force and resulting IOP were assessed (n = 57). RESULTS: A correlation was noted between the force induced and the IOP increase, which showed a linear dependency. The insertion of a 29-G cannula caused a mean ΔIOP value of 49.1 ± 2.9 mm Hg and an external force of 0.76 N, and that of a 23-G trocar 344.4 ± 5.9 mm Hg and 6.09 N, respectively. The rise in IOP during a simulated cryocoagulation reached values between 57.3 ± 14.8 mm Hg (cryoprobe tip diameter: 0.9 mm) and 130.3 ± 2.9 mm Hg (cryoprobe tip diameter: 7.0 mm). CONCLUSION: The values of the forces applied can be converted into the resulting IOP based on the specific action. Surgical or diagnostic procedures should, therefore, be evaluated with regard to preexisting pathologies, such as glaucoma.

A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks.

Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical domain. The metric is influenced by both the expected magnitude of risk and its uncertainty. We demonstrate the approach by assessing risks of human-mediated spread of Asian longhorned beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) in Greater Toronto (Ontario, Canada). Information about the human-mediated spread of ALB through this urban environment to individual geographical locations is uncertain, so each location was characterized by a set of probabilistic rates of spread, derived in this case using a network model. We represented the sets of spread rates for the locations by their cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and then, using the first-order stochastic dominance rule, found ordered non-dominant subsets of these CDFs, which we then used to define different classes of risk across the geographical domain, from high to low. Because each non-dominant subset was estimated with respect to all elements of the distribution, the uncertainty in the underlying data was factored into the delineation of the risk classes; essentially, fewer non-dominant subsets can be defined in portions of the full set where information is sparse. We then depicted each non-dominant subset as a point cloud, where points represented the CDF values of each subset element at specific sampling intervals. For each subset, we then defined a hypervolume bounded by the outermost convex frontier of that point cloud. This resulted in a collection of hypervolumes for every non-dominant subset that together serve as a continuous measure of risk, which may be more practically useful than averaging metrics or ordinal rank measures. Overall, the approach offers a rigorous depiction of risk in a geographical domain when the underlying estimates of risk for individual locations are represented by sets or distributions of uncertain estimates. Our hypervolume-based approach can be used to compare assessments made with different datasets and assumptions.

PostBP: A Python library to analyze outputs from wildfire growth models.

Wildfire is an important natural disturbance agent in Canadian forests, but it has also caused significant economic damage nationwide. Spatial fire growth models have emerged as important tools for representing wildfire dynamics across diverse landscapes, enabling the mapping of key wildfire hazard metrics such as location-specific burn probabilities or likelihoods of fire ignition. While these summary metrics have gained popularity, they often fall short in capturing the directional spread of wildfires and their potential spread distances. The metrics depicting the directional spread of wildfire can be derived from raw outputs generated with fire growth models, such as the perimeters and ignition locations of individual fires, but extracting this information requires complex data processing. To address this data gap, we present PostBP, an open-source Python package designed for post-processing the raw outputs of fire growth models - the ignition locations and perimeters of individual fires simulated over multiple stochastic iterations - into a matrix of fire spread likelihoods between all pairs of forest patches in a landscape. The PostBP also generates several other summary outputs, such as the source-sink ratio and the fire spread rose diagram. We provide an overview of PostBP's capabilities and demonstrate its practical application to a forested landscape.•Wildfire growth models generate large amounts of outputs, which are hard to summarize for practical decision-making.•The PostBP package calculates the summary metrics characterizing the directional spread of wildfires.•The fire risk summaries generated with PostBP can support the assessments of wildfire risk and mitigation measures.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.

Exploring critical uncertainties in pathway assessments of human-assisted introductions of alien forest species in Canada.

Long-distance introductions of alien species are often driven by socioeconomic factors, such that conventional "biological" invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study, we demonstrate a new technique for assessing and reconstructing human-mediated pathways of alien forest species entries to major settlements in Canada via commercial road transportation and domestic trade. We undertook our analysis in three steps. First, we used existing data on movement of commodities associated with bark- and wood-boring forest pests to build a probabilistic model of how the organisms may be moved from one location to another through a transportation network. We then used this model to generate multiple sets of predictions of species arrival rates at every location in the transportation network, and to identify the locations with the highest likelihood of new incursions. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the species arrival rates to uncertainty in key model assumptions by testing the impact of additive and multiplicative errors (by respectively adding a uniform random variate or symmetric variation bounds to the arrival rate values) on the probabilities of pest transmission from one location to another, as well as the impact of the removal of one or more nodes and all connecting links to other nodes from the underlying transportation network. Overall, the identification of potential pest arrival hotspots is moderately robust to uncertainties in key modeling assumptions. Large urban areas and major border crossings that have the highest predicted species arrival rates have the lowest sensitivities to uncertainty in the pest transmission potential and to random changes in the structure of the transportation network. The roadside survey data appears to be sufficient to delineate major hubs and hotspots where pests are likely to arrive from other locations in the network via commercial truck transport. However, "pass-through" locations with few incoming and outgoing routes can be identified with lower precision. The arrival rates of alien forest pests appear to be highly sensitive to additive errors. Surprisingly, the impact of random changes in the structure of the transportation network was relatively low.

Denser forests across the USA experience more damage from insects and pathogens.

Forests across much of the United States are becoming denser. Trees growing in denser stands experience more competition for essential resources, which can make them more vulnerable to disturbances. Forest density can be expressed in terms of basal area, a metric that has been used to assess vulnerability of some forests to damage by certain insects or pathogens. A raster map of total tree basal area (TBA) for the conterminous United States was compared with annual (2000-2019) survey maps of forest damage due to insects and pathogens. Across each of four regions, median TBA was significantly higher within forest areas defoliated or killed by insects or pathogens than in areas without recorded damage. Therefore, TBA may serve as a regional-scale indicator of forest health and a first filter for identifying areas that merit finer-scale analysis of forest conditions.

Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis.

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at > 2,500 locations nationwide. For > 7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these "origin-destination" data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers ( approximately 53%) traveled <100 km, but approximately 10% traveled > 500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.

Safety and Efficacy of Hypersonic Vitrectomy for Retinal Reattachment Surgery in Proliferative Vitreoretinopathies.

Introduction: To investigate the safety and efficacy of the Vitesse hypersonic vitrectomy device for retinal reattachment surgery in proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) or proliferative diabetic vitreoretinopathy (PDVR) cases. The Vitesse device utilizes hypersonic technology to liquefy instead of cutting the vitreous, providing an alternative to the traditional pneumatic guillotine cutter. Material and Methods: A prospective, one-armed, non-comparative, open-label study was performed. Sixteen patients with a diagnosis of PVR or PDVR that required retinal reattachment surgery were included. Severity of disease was classified using the Retina Society 1983 classification and Kroll Classification from 2007. Patient data was collected preoperatively, 2 days postoperatively, 1 month postoperatively, and 3 months postoperatively. Efficacy of hypersonic vitrectomy was evaluated, both subjectively using a questionnaire and objectively by means of Supplementary Video documentation, device settings, and data collection of the patients' medical history. Results: In all 16 cases, retinal reattachment surgery could be performed with Vitesse without conversion to a guillotine cutter. The vitreous could be separated from the detached retina completely with no iatrogenic tissue damage. Vitreous traction was documented in one case. In 6 cases, shaving of the vitreous base was performed after early fluid-air exchange with hypersonic vitrectomy without any complications. No adverse events suspected to be related to hypersonic vitrectomy were documented in the follow-up visits. Conclusion: The Vitesse has potential advantages including reduced vacuum volumes with limited amount of turbulence and avoidance vitreoretinal traction. Liquefaction directly in front of the probe entrance allows for continuous unrestricted fluid flow. These factors of hypersonic technology allow to carry out retinal reattachment surgery in PVR or PDVR cases successfully.

Quadruple therapy leads to a sustained improvement of vision in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration.

AIM: To investigate the efficacy of a combined intravitreal therapy with prior photodynamic therapy (PDT) in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration. METHODS: Fifty-two patients (mean age: 72.7 years) with predominantly classic choroidal neovascularization received low-fluence PDT (42 J/cm2 for 72 s), followed 24 h later by a 0.4-ml core pars plana vitrectomy with intravitreal injection of dexamethasone (0.8 mg) and bevacizumab (1.25 mg). The best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA; 6 m Snellen), central macular thickness (optical coherence tomography), intraocular pressure and the need for retreatment were assessed. RESULTS: BCVA changed significantly (vs. baseline) at 3 months (+0.11), 9 months (+0.19) and 14 months (+0.16). At the end of the follow-up period, BCVA had improved by > 0.1 in the majority of the patients (72.9%), and the mean central retinal thickness had decreased by -44.3% (-211 µm). The retreatment rate was 25%. No increase in intraocular pressure or other adverse event was reported. CONCLUSIONS: The pharmacological effects of the drugs, the low-fluence PDT, and the physiological effects of the therapy may have contributed to the sustainability of the therapeutic benefits.

Detecting critical nodes in forest landscape networks to reduce wildfire spread.

Although wildfires are an important ecological process in forested regions worldwide, they can cause significant economic damage and frequently create widespread health impacts. We propose a network optimization approach to plan wildfire fuel treatments that minimize the risk of fire spread in forested landscapes under an upper bound for total treated area. We used simulation modeling to estimate the probability of fire spread between pairs of forest sites and formulated a modified Critical Node Detection (CND) model that uses these estimated probabilities to find a pattern of fuel reduction treatments that minimizes the likely spread of fires across a landscape. We also present a problem formulation that includes control of the size and spatial contiguity of fuel treatments. We demonstrate the approach with a case study in Kootenay National Park, British Columbia, Canada, where we investigated prescribed burn options for reducing the risk of wildfire spread in the park area. Our results provide new insights into cost-effective planning to mitigate wildfire risk in forest landscapes. The approach should be applicable to other ecosystems with frequent wildfires.

Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest.

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk-ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.

Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests.

Integrated pest risk maps and their underlying assessments provide broad guidance for establishing surveillance programs for invasive species, but they rarely account for knowledge gaps regarding the pest of interest or how these can be reduced. In this study we demonstrate how the somewhat competing notions of robustness to uncertainty and potential knowledge gains could be used in prioritizing large-scale surveillance activities. We illustrate this approach with the example of an invasive pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. First, we formulate existing knowledge about the pest into a stochastic model and use the model to estimate the expected utility of surveillance efforts across the landscape. The expected utility accounts for the distribution, abundance and susceptibility of the host resource as well as the value of timely S. noctilio detections. Next, we make use of the info-gap decision theory framework to explore two alternative pest surveillance strategies. The first strategy aims for timely, certain detections and attempts to maximize the robustness to uncertainty about S. noctilio behavior; the second strategy aims to maximize the potential knowledge gain about the pest via unanticipated (i.e., opportune) detections. The results include a set of spatial outputs for each strategy that can be used independently to prioritize surveillance efforts. However, we demonstrate an alternative approach in which these outputs are combined via the Pareto ranking technique into a single priority map that outlines the survey regions with the best trade-offs between both surveillance strategies.

Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research.

When alien species make incursions into novel environments, early detection through surveillance is critical to minimizing their impacts and preserving the possibility of timely eradication. However, incipient populations can be difficult to detect, and usually, there are limited resources for surveillance or other response activities. Modern optimization techniques enable surveillance planning that accounts for the biology and expected behavior of an invasive species while exploring multiple scenarios to identify the most cost-effective options. Nevertheless, most optimization models omit some real-world limitations faced by practitioners during multi-day surveillance campaigns, such as daily working time constraints, the time and cost to access survey sites and personnel work schedules. Consequently, surveillance managers must rely on their own judgments to handle these logistical details, and default to their experience during implementation. This is sensible, but their decisions may fail to address all relevant factors and may not be cost-effective. A better planning strategy is to determine optimal routing to survey sites while accounting for common daily logistical constraints. Adding site access and other logistical constraints imposes restrictions on the scope and extent of the surveillance effort, yielding costlier but more realistic expectations of the surveillance outcomes than in a theoretical planning case.

Pressure dependent direct transtissue transmission of eyewall, sclera and vitreous body in the range of 350-1050nm.

PURPOSE: For transscleral application of optical radiation or light to the eye, it is important to know the transmission and absorbance of the tissue layers of the eyewall. The impact of photochemical energy to the retina located directly at the point of contact with the radiation emitter must be considered as well as the absorbance in choroid and retina. Therefore, the direct transmission of ex vivo porcine eyewalls and vitreous body were measured in this study. METHODS: At ex vivo porcine eyes (N=221) pressure dependent transmission measurements were performed with a pressure inducing setup. Pressure and wavelength dependent direct transmission of eyewall and vitreous body of porcine eyes were described for different applied pressures (23mmHg, 78mmHg and 132mmHg). The transmissions were investigated within the spectral range of 350-1050nm. In addition to the complete eyewall transmission measurements, the transmission of sclera, vitreous body and water was measured individually and the transmission of retina and choroid was calculated. RESULTS: With increasing wavelength and pressure, a significant transmission increase of the eyewall could be achieved (p<0.05). At 400nm and 132mmHg the transmission raised to 0.10%. At 1050nm it increased up to a value of 12.22%. In the visible spectrum, the direct transmission was always below 3.17%. The differences in eyewall transmission of eyes with different iris colors were significant at low pressure. With increasing pressure, the effect strength decreased and the differences lost their significance. CONCLUSIONS: The pressure and wavelength dependent direct transmission of the eyewall and the vitreous body significantly increased with increasing pressure. This results are benefical for technical and clinical safety, research and development of illumination devices. It is necessary to know the intraocular brightness in the eye during diaphanoscopy, photocoagulation application to determine hazards.

Prospective, randomized, controlled clinical study evaluating the efficacy of Rheopheresis for dry age-related macular degeneration. Dry AMD treatment with Rheopheresis Trial-ART.

PURPOSE: To evaluate Rheopheresis for the treatment of patients with high-risk dry age-related macular degeneration and no therapeutic alternative. Rheopheresis is a method of therapeutic apheresis using the methodology of double filtration plasmapheresis to treat microcirculatory disorders. METHODS: The dry AMD treatment with Rheopheresis trial (ART) was a randomised, controlled clinical study. Patients with the diagnosis of AMD in both eyes, with the study eye presenting dry AMD and soft drusen (the fellow eye had advanced AMD) were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive ten Rheopheresis treatments within 17 weeks or to remain untreated. The primary outcome was change in best-corrected ETDRS-visual acuity (mean logMar change) after 7.5 months compared to baseline visual acuity for both groups. RESULTS: Forty-three eyes of 43 patients (22 treatment and 21 control group) were analysed. The mean baseline BCVA in study eyes was 0.58 in the treatment group and 0.66 in the control group (n.s. p = 0.19). At the primary efficacy endpoint 7.5 months post baseline, there was a statistically significant mean difference of 0.95 ETDRS lines (p = 0.01) between the Rheopheresis and control groups. Nine percent of eyes in the group treated with Rheopheresis gained 2 or more ETDRS lines, as compared with 0% of eyes with no treatment. None of the treated patients had a loss in visual acuity in their study eyes, as compared with 24% of patients without treatment who lost 1 ETDRS line or more; 19% lost 2 ETDRS lines or more. Rheopheresis treatment was safe and well-tolerated. CONCLUSION: The results of ART provide further evidence that Rheopheresis is a safe and effective therapeutic option for high-risk patients with dry AMD and no therapeutic alternative. A series of Rheopheresis treatments can improve the natural course of AMD for selected patients.

Mapping invasive species risks with stochastic models: a cross-border United States-Canada application for Sirex noctilio fabricius.

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.

Evaluating critical uncertainty thresholds in a spatial model of forest pest invasion risk.

Pest risk maps can provide useful decision support in invasive species management, but most do not adequately consider the uncertainty associated with predicted risk values. This study explores how increased uncertainty in a risk model's numeric assumptions might affect the resultant risk map. We used a spatial stochastic model, integrating components for entry, establishment, and spread, to estimate the risks of invasion and their variation across a two-dimensional landscape for Sirex noctilio, a nonnative woodwasp recently detected in the United States and Canada. Here, we present a sensitivity analysis of the mapped risk estimates to variation in key model parameters. The tested parameter values were sampled from symmetric uniform distributions defined by a series of nested bounds (+/-5%, ... , +/-40%) around the parameters' initial values. The results suggest that the maximum annual spread distance, which governs long-distance dispersal, was by far the most sensitive parameter. At +/-15% or larger variability bound increments for this parameter, there were noteworthy shifts in map risk values, but no other parameter had a major effect, even at wider bounds of variation. The methodology presented here is generic and can be used to assess the impact of uncertainties on the stability of pest risk maps as well as to identify geographic areas for which management decisions can be made confidently, regardless of uncertainty.

Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach.

Detections of invasive species outbreaks are often followed by the removal of susceptible host organisms in order to slow the spread of the invading pest population. We propose the acceptance sampling approach for detection and optional removal of susceptible host trees to manage an outbreak of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a highly destructive forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare the strategy with two common delimiting survey techniques that do not consider follow-up management actions such as host removal. Our results show that the management objective influences the survey strategy. The survey-only strategies maximized the capacity to detect new infestations and prioritized sites with high likelihood of being invaded. Comparatively, the surveys with subsequent host removal actions allocated most of the budget to sites where complete host removal would minimize the pest's ability to spread to uninvaded locations. Uncertainty about the pest's spread causes the host removal measures to cover a larger area in a uniform spatial pattern and extend to farther distances from already infested sites. If a decision maker is ambiguity-averse and strives to avoid the worst-case damages from the invasion, the optimal strategy is to survey more sites with high host densities and remove trees from sites at farther distances, where EAB arrivals may be uncertain, but could cause significant damage if not detected quickly. Accounting for the uncertainty about spread helps develop a more robust pest management strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support management programs for new pest incursions.

Changes in intraocular pressure after intravitreal fluocinolone acetonide (ILUVIEN): real-world experience in three European countries.

AIMS: The ILUVIEN Registry Safety Study is an ongoing, multicentre, open-label, observational study collecting real-world data on the safety and effectiveness of the 0.2 µg/day fluocinolone acetonide (FAc) implant in patients treated according to the European label requirements. METHODS: Patients included in this analysis were treated for the licensed indication of chronic diabetic macular oedema (cDMO; that is, DMO that persists or recurs despite treatment). Data presented in the current analysis were collected from patient records up to 6 March 2017. Visual acuity (VA) data, including mean change in VA over time and at last observation, intraocular pressure (IOP) over the course of the study, IOP events, use of IOP-lowering therapy and cup:disc ratio were analysed. Information on additional DMO treatments post-FAc implant was also captured. RESULTS: Five hundred and sixty-three patients (593 eyes) were enrolled on the study. Mean IOP for the overall population remained within the normal range throughout follow-up and 76.7% of patients did not require IOP-lowering therapy following treatment with the FAc implant. Sixty-nine per cent of eyes did not require additional DMO treatments. Mean VA in the overall population increased from 51.9 letters at baseline to 55.6 letters at month 12, with a significant increase of 2.9 letters at last observation. Patients with short-term cDMO experienced greater VA gains than those with long-term cDMO. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this analysis are comparable with those of other studies, including the Fluocinolone Acetate for Macular Edema study. The study reinforces the good safety and effectiveness profile of FAc, and demonstrates the benefit of early FAc treatment.