Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species.

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss.

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Increase in marine provinciality over the last 250 million years governed more by climate change than plate tectonics.

Amidst long-term fluctuations of the abiotic environment, the degree to which life organizes into distinct biogeographic provinces (provinciality) can reveal the fundamental drivers of global biodiversity. Our understanding of present-day biogeography implies that changes in the distribution of continents across climatic zones have predictable effects on habitat distribution, dispersal barriers and the evolution of provinciality. To assess marine provinciality through the Phanerozoic, here we (a) simulate provinces based on palaeogeographic reconstructions and global climate models and (b) contrast them with empirically derived provinces that we define using network analysis of fossil occurrences. Simulated and empirical patterns match reasonably well and consistently suggest a greater than 15% increase in provinciality since the Mesozoic era. Although both factors played a role, the simulations imply that the effect of the latitudinal temperature gradient has been twice as important in determining marine provinciality as continental configuration.

Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming.

Organismic groups vary non-randomly in their vulnerability to extinction. However, it is unclear whether the same groups are consistently vulnerable, regardless of the dominant extinction drivers, or whether certain drivers have their own distinctive and predictable victims. Given the challenges presented by anthropogenic global warming, we focus on changes in extinction selectivity trends during ancient hyperthermal events: geologically rapid episodes of global warming. Focusing on the fossil record of the last 300 million years, we identify clades and traits of marine ectotherms that were more prone to extinction under the onset of six hyperthermal events than during other times. Hyperthermals enhanced the vulnerability of marine fauna that host photosymbionts, particularly zooxanthellate corals, the reef environments they provide, and genera with actively burrowing or swimming adult life-stages. The extinction risk of larger sized fauna also increased relative to non-hyperthermal times, while genera with a poorly buffered internal physiology did not become more vulnerable on average during hyperthermals. Hyperthermal-vulnerable clades include rhynchonelliform brachiopods and bony fish, whereas resistant clades include cartilaginous fish, and ostreid and venerid bivalves. These extinction responses in the geological past mirror modern responses of these groups to warming, including range-shift magnitudes, population losses, and experimental performance under climate-related stressors. Accordingly, extinction mechanisms distinctive to rapid global warming may be indicated, including sensitivity to warming-induced seawater deoxygenation. In anticipation of modern warming-driven marine extinctions, the trends illustrated in the fossil record offer an expedient preview.

The biogeographical imprint of mass extinctions.

Mass extinctions are defined by extinction rates significantly above background levels and have had substantial consequences for the evolution of life. Geographically selective extinctions, subsequent originations and species redistributions may have changed global biogeographical structure, but quantification of this change is lacking. In order to assess quantitatively the biogeographical impact of mass extinctions, we outline time-traceable bioregions for benthic marine species across the Phanerozoic using a compositional network. Mass extinction events are visually recognizable in the geographical depiction of bioregions. The end-Permian extinction stands out with a severe reduction of provinciality. Time series of biogeographical turnover represent a novel aspect of the analysis of mass extinctions, confirming concentration of changes in the geographical distribution of benthic marine life.

Reliable estimates of beta diversity with incomplete sampling.

Beta diversity, the compositional variation among communities or assemblages, is crucial to understanding the principles of diversity assembly. The mean pairwise proportional dissimilarity expresses overall heterogeneity of samples in a data set and is among the most widely used and most robust measures of beta diversity. Obtaining a complete list of taxa and their abundances requires substantial taxonomic expertise and is time consuming. In addition, the information is generally incomplete due to sampling biases. Based on the concept of the ecological significance of dominant taxa, we explore whether determining proportional dissimilarity can be simplified based on dominant species. Using simulations and six case studies, we assess the correlation between complete community compositional data and reduced subsets of a varying number of dominant species. We find that gross beta diversity is usually depicted accurately when only the 80th percentile or five of the most abundant species of each site is considered. In data sets with very high evenness, at least the 10 most abundant species should be included. Focusing on dominant species also maintains the rank-order of beta diversity among sites. Our new approach will allow ecologists and paleobiologists to produce a far greater amount of data on diversity patterns with less time and effort, supporting conservation studies and basic science.

Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk.

Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.

Tumour regression predicts better response to interferon therapy in melanoma patients: a retrospective single centre study.

We hypothesise that regression may have an impact on the effectiveness of adjuvant IFN therapy, based on its role in the host immune response. Our purpose is to investigate regression and ulceration as prognostic factors in case of interferon-alpha (IFN)-treated melanoma patients. We followed 357 IFN-treated melanoma patients retrospectively, investigating progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) depending on the presence of ulceration and regression. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed, and we used a Cox regression analysis to relate risk factors. The survival function of the Cox regression was used to measure the effect of regression and ulceration on PFS and OS depending on the Breslow thickness (T1-T4) of the primary tumour. Regression was significantly positively related to PFS ( P  = 0.0018, HR = 0.352) and OS ( P  = 0.0112, HR = 0.380), while ulceration showed a negative effect (PFS: P  = 0.0001, HR = 2.629; OS: P  = 0.0003, HR = 2.388). They influence survival independently. The most favourable outcome was measured in the regressed/non-ulcerated group, whereas the worse was in the non-regressed/ulcerated one. Of risk factors, Breslow thickness is the most significant predictor. The efficacy of regression is regardless of Breslow thickness, though the more favourable the impact of regression was in the thicker primary lesions. Our results indicate that regression is associated with a more favourable outcome for IFN-treated melanoma patients, whereas ulceration shows an inverse relation. Further studies are needed to analyse the survival benefit of regression in relation to innovative immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Radial porosity profiles: a new bone histological method for comparative developmental analysis of diametric limb bone growth.

In fossil tetrapods, limb bone histology is considered the most reliable tool not only for inferring skeletal maturity-a crucial assessment in palaeobiological and evolutionary studies-but also for evaluating the growth dynamics within the ontogenetic window represented by the primary bone cortex. Due to its complex relationship with bone growth and functional maturation, primary cortical vascularity is an indispensable osteohistological character for reconstructing growth dynamics, especially in the context of various developmental strategies along the precocial-altricial spectrum. Using this concept as our working hypothesis, we developed a new quantitative osteohistological parameter, radial porosity profile (RPP), that captures relative cortical porosity changes in limb bones as trajectories. We built a proof-of-concept RPP dataset on extant birds, then added fossil paravian dinosaurs and performed a set of trajectory-grouping analyses to identify potential RPP categories and evaluate them in the context of our ontogeny-developmental strategy working hypothesis. We found that RPPs, indeed, reflect important developmental features within and across elements, specimens and taxa, supporting their analytical power. Our RPPs also revealed unexpected potential osteohistological correlates of growth and functional development of limb bones. The diverse potential applications of RPPs open up new research directions in the evolution of locomotor ontogeny.

Reconstruction of Alar-Perialar Defects with a Combined Subcutaneous and Cutaneous Pedicled Rotation-Advancement Nasolabial Flap.

Aim of the Study: During the reconstruction of alar defects involving the upper lip, reconstructive surgeons face the need for various thicknesses of tissues crucial to preserving the facial sulcus which is important for a cosmetically acceptable result. Our aim was to reconstruct the deep perialar and thinner lateral nasal alar defect in a single step procedure with a suitable flap which is reliable, has appropriate blood supply and provides an esthetically good result. Materials and Methods: Extended alar defect was reconstructed with a combined flap in 10 cases. During the procedure, a subcutaneous pedicle was created and the proximal part of the flap was rotated into the defect as a rotational flap. The procedure and the follow-up have been photo-documented in all cases. Furthermore, the perfusion of the flaps was monitored by means of laser Doppler flowmetry. Postoperative complications were evaluated with a semi-quantitative score and the patients completed a patient satisfaction questionnaire, too. Results: An optimal esthetic result was obtained in all cases after the operation. The lateral nasal alar part of the defect was reconstructed with the thinner proximal part of the flap while the deeper perialar region involving the upper lip was covered with the thicker distal part. The flaps have shown sufficient blood flow after the operation. There was no significant pin cushioning or "trap-door" effect in any case. Mild erythema and edema was found in few cases. The patients were satisfied with the cosmetic result of the intervention. Conclusions: The flap is suitable for the reconstruction of alar defects involving the perialar region. It has the advantage of covering the deeper perialar and the thinner alar defects, whilst eliminating the pin cushioning effect of the conventional subcutaneous island pedicle flaps.

A Possible Technique for the Complex Reconstruction of Exposed Breast Implant: Applicability and Microcirculation of the Capsule Flap.

Aim of the Study: Immediate breast reconstruction is often applied after mastectomy. However, inappropriate surgical technique, postoperative radiotherapy and infection may lead to tissue necrosis and implant protrusion. Traditional therapies frequently fail. However, previous data suggested that capsule flaps may be appropriate for the salvage of implants. Our goal was to investigate the usefulness of capsuloplasty in patients with exposed breast implant and to monitor the blood supply of capsule flaps during the operation. Materials and Methods: Capsuloplasty was performed in 19 patients with exposed implant. After removal of necrotic tissue, capsulotomy was performed, the planned flap was dissected free, the implant was covered with the flap and the wound was then closed. During operation, the blood flow of the flap was determined by means of laser Doppler flowmetry. Moreover, tissue samples were taken for histology and immunostaining for CD34. Results: The postoperative follow-up showed that capsule flaps survived in each case: no complications were found. The blood flow of the flaps did not change significantly during the intervention as compared with the baseline values. The histology and the immunohistochemistry revealed considerable vascularization and angiogenesis in the flap. Conclusions: Capsule flaps seem to be appropriate for the salvage of exposed implants and for enhancement of implant cover in the case of thin and injured tissue.

Effects of the combined PDL/Nd:YAG laser on surgical scars: vascularity and collagen changes evaluated by in vivo confocal microscopy.

The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of the sequential combined 585 nm PDL and the 1064 nm neodymium:yttrium-aluminium-garnet laser (PDL/Nd:YAG) in the treatment of surgical scars and to evaluate the short-term effects by in vivo confocal microscopy (RCM) and the long-term effects by clinical assessment of the scars. Twenty-five patients were enrolled with 39 postoperative linear scars; each scar was divided into two fields. One half was treated with the combined PDL/Nd:YAG laser, whereas the other half remained untreated. Each scar was treated three times at monthly intervals. Scars were evaluated by an independent examiner, using the Vancouver Scar Scale. The combined PDL/Nd:YAG laser significantly improved the appearance of the scars. In order to study the short-term effects of combined laser treatment, six additional patients were enrolled with 7 postoperative linear scars. One half of scars was treated once with the combined PDL/Nd:YAG laser. One week after this laser treatment, both the treated and the nontreated parts of the scars were examined by dermoscopy and RCM. The dermoscopic pictures revealed improvements even in treated areas. In conclusion, the combined PDL/Nd:YAG laser was found to be effective in improving the quality and appearance of the surgical scars.