A Coupled Statistical and Deterministic Model for Forecasting Climate-Driven Dengue Incidence in Selangor, Malaysia.

The mosquito-borne dengue virus remains a major public health concern in Malaysia. Despite various control efforts and measures introduced by the Malaysian Government to combat dengue, the increasing trend of dengue cases persists and shows no sign of decreasing. Currently, early detection and vector control are the main methods employed to curb dengue outbreaks. In this study, a coupled model consisting of the statistical ARIMAX model and the deterministic SI-SIR model was developed and validated using the weekly reported dengue data from year 2014 to 2019 for Selangor, Malaysia. Previous studies have shown that climate variables, especially temperature, humidity, and precipitation, were able to influence dengue incidence and transmission dynamics through their effect on the vector. In this coupled model, climate is linked to dengue disease through mosquito biting rate, allowing real-time forecast of dengue cases using climate variables, namely temperature, rainfall and humidity. For the period chosen for model validation, the coupled model can forecast 1-2 weeks in advance with an average error of less than 6%, three weeks in advance with an average error of 7.06% and four weeks in advance with an average error of 8.01%. Further model simulation analysis suggests that the coupled model generally provides better forecast than the stand-alone ARIMAX model, especially at the onset of the outbreak. Moreover, the coupled model is more robust in the sense that it can be further adapted for investigating the effectiveness of various dengue mitigation measures subject to the changing climate.

Internal phosphorus recycling promotes rich and complex dynamics in an algae-phosphorus model: Implications for eutrophication management.

Internal phosphorus recycling in lakes is an important nutrient source that promotes algal growth. Its persistence impedes the effort to improve water quality and thus poses a challenge to the management of eutrophication in lakes, especially in shallow lakes where the occurrence of internal phosphorus recycling is reportedly more common. This paper aims to provide crucial insights on the effects of internal phosphorus recycling on eutrophication dynamics for effective management of lake eutrophication. For this purpose, a mathematical model for lake eutrophication, comprising two compartments of algae and phosphorus, is first formulated for application to a eutrophic tropical lake named Tasik Harapan in Universiti Sains Malaysia. Numerical bifurcation analysis of the model is then performed to assess the combined influences of internal phosphorus recycling, algal mortality and external phosphorus loading on Tasik Harapan eutrophication dynamics. Specifically, co-dimension one bifurcation analysis of algal mortality rate is carried out by means of XPPAUT for various external phosphorus loading rates. The emergence of limit cycle for a certain range of algal mortality rate could be related to the hydra effect (i.e., algal concentration increases in response to greater algal mortality) and the paradox of enrichment (i.e., destabilization of algae in nutrient rich environment). To trace the locus of co-dimension one bifurcation, co-dimension two bifurcation analysis is performed by means of MatCont. The analysis demonstrated that the inclusion of the internal phosphorus recycling term induces rich and complex dynamics of the model. These dynamics include saddle-node bifurcation, cusp, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, Generalized Hopf bifurcation and limit point bifurcation of cycles. The results suggest that high internal phosphorus recycling rate promotes bistability and catastrophic shift in a shallow and tropical lake like Tasik Harapan. Hence, the key to effective management of eutrophication in shallow and tropical lakes is the control of internal phosphorus recycling.

Tsunami run-up and inundation along the coast of Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia due to a potential Brunei submarine mass failure.

Submarine landslides, also known as submarine mass failures (SMFs), are major natural marine disasters that could critically damage coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants and oil and gas platforms. It is therefore essential to investigate submarine landslides for potential tsunami hazard assessment. Three-dimensional seismic data from offshore Brunei have revealed a giant seabed mass deposited by a previous SMF. The submarine mass extends over 120 km from the continental slope of the Baram Canyon at 200 m water depth to the deep basin floor of the Northwest Borneo Trough. A suite of in-house two-dimensional depth-averaged tsunami simulation model TUNA (Tsunami-tracking Utilities and Application) is developed to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities in Sabah and Sarawak subject to potential SMF tsunami. The submarine slide is modeled as a rigid body moving along a planar slope with the center of mass motion parallel to the planar slope and subject to external forces due to added mass, gravity, and dissipation. The nonlinear shallow water equations are utilized to simulate tsunami propagation from deepwater up to the shallow offshore areas. A wetting-drying algorithm is used when a tsunami wave reaches the shoreline to compute run up of tsunami along the shoreline. Run-up wave height and inundation maps are provided for seven densely populated locations in Sabah and Sarawak to highlight potential risks at each location, subject to two scenarios of slide slopes: 2° and 4°. The first wave may arrive at Kudat as early as 0.4 h after the SMF, giving local communities little time to evacuate. Over a small area, maximum inundated depths reaching 20.3 m at Kudat, 26.1 m at Kota Kinabalu, and 15.5 m at Miri are projected, while the maximum inundation distance of 4.86 km is expected at Miri due to its low-lying coast. In view of the vulnerability of some locations to the SMF tsunami, it is important to develop and implement community resilience program to reduce the potential damage that could be inflicted by SMF tsunamis.