Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia.

Polar ice core records attest to a colossal volcanic eruption that took place ca. A.D. 1257 or 1258, most probably in the tropics. Estimates based on sulfate deposition in these records suggest that it yielded the largest volcanic sulfur release to the stratosphere of the past 7,000 y. Tree rings, medieval chronicles, and computational models corroborate the expected worldwide atmospheric and climatic effects of this eruption. However, until now there has been no convincing candidate for the mid-13th century "mystery eruption." Drawing upon compelling evidence from stratigraphic and geomorphic data, physical volcanology, radiocarbon dating, tephra geochemistry, and chronicles, we argue the source of this long-sought eruption is the Samalas volcano, adjacent to Mount Rinjani on Lombok Island, Indonesia. At least 40 km(3) (dense-rock equivalent) of tephra were deposited and the eruption column reached an altitude of up to 43 km. Three principal pumice fallout deposits mantle the region and thick pyroclastic flow deposits are found at the coast, 25 km from source. With an estimated magnitude of 7, this event ranks among the largest Holocene explosive eruptions. Radiocarbon dates on charcoal are consistent with a mid-13th century eruption. In addition, glass geochemistry of the associated pumice deposits matches that of shards found in both Arctic and Antarctic ice cores, providing compelling evidence to link the prominent A.D. 1258/1259 ice core sulfate spike to Samalas. We further constrain the timing of the mystery eruption based on tephra dispersal and historical records, suggesting it occurred between May and October A.D. 1257.

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France).

We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 107 kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs-very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00445-020-01411-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modeling of partial dome collapse of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano: implications for hazard assessment and monitoring.

Over the past 9,150 years, at least 9 flank collapses have been identified in the history of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano. On account of the volcano's current unrest, the possibility of such a flank collapse should not be dismissed in assessing hazards for future eruptive magmatic as well as non-magmatic scenarios. We combine morphological and geophysical data to identify seven unstable structures (volumes ranging from 1 × 106 m3 to 100 × 106 m3), including one that has a volume compatible with the last recorded flank collapse in 1530 CE. We model their dynamics and emplacement with the SHALTOP numerical model and a simple Coulomb friction law. The best-fit friction coefficient to reproduce the 1530 CE event is tan(7°) = 0.13, suggesting the transformation of the debris avalanche into a debris flow, which is confirmed by the texture of mapped deposits. Various friction angles are tested to investigate less water-rich and less mobile avalanches. The most densely populated areas of Saint-Claude and Basse-Terre, and an area of Gourbeyre south of the Palmiste ridge, are primarily exposed in the case of the more voluminous and mobile flank collapse scenarios considered. However, topography has a prominent role in controlling flow dynamics, with barrier effects and multiple channels. Classical mobility indicators, such as the Heim's ratio, are thus not adequate for a comprehensive hazard analysis.

Human survival in volcanic eruptions: Thermal injuries in pyroclastic surges, their causes, prognosis and emergency management.

This study of burns patients from two eruptions of Merapi volcano, Java, in 1994 and 2010, is the first detailed analysis to be reported of thermal injuries in a large series of hospitalised victims of pyroclastic surges, one of the most devastating phenomena in explosive eruptions. Emergency planners in volcanic crises in populated areas have to integrate the health sector into disaster management and be aware of the nature of the surge impacts and the types of burns victims to be expected in a worst scenario, potentially in numbers and in severity that would overwhelm normal treatment facilities. In our series, 106 patients from the two eruptions were treated in the same major hospital in Yogyakarta and a third of these survived. Seventy-eight per cent were admitted with over 40% TBSA (total body surface area) burns and around 80% of patients were suspected of having at least some degree of inhalation injury as well. Thirty five patients suffered over 80% TBSA burns and only one of these survived. Crucially, 45% of patients were in the 40-79% TBSA range, with most suspected of suffering from inhalation injury, for whom survival was most dependent on the hospital treatment they received. After reviewing the evidence from recent major eruptions and outlining the thermal hazards of surges, we relate the type and severity of the injuries of these patients to the temperatures and dynamics of the pyroclastic surges, as derived from the environmental impacts and associated eruption processes evaluated in our field surveys and interviews conducted by our multi-disciplinary team. Effective warnings, adequate evacuation measures, and political will are all essential in volcanic crises in populated areas to prevent future catastrophes on this scale.

Volcano electrical tomography unveils edifice collapse hazard linked to hydrothermal system structure and dynamics.

Catastrophic collapses of the flanks of stratovolcanoes constitute a major hazard threatening numerous lives in many countries. Although many such collapses occurred following the ascent of magma to the surface, many are not associated with magmatic reawakening but are triggered by a combination of forcing agents such as pore-fluid pressurization and/or mechanical weakening of the volcanic edifice often located above a low-strength detachment plane. The volume of altered rock available for collapse, the dynamics of the hydrothermal fluid reservoir and the geometry of incipient collapse failure planes are key parameters for edifice stability analysis and modelling that remain essentially hidden to current volcano monitoring techniques. Here we derive a high-resolution, three-dimensional electrical conductivity model of the La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano from extensive electrical tomography data. We identify several highly conductive regions in the lava dome that are associated to fluid saturated host-rock and preferential flow of highly acid hot fluids within the dome. We interpret this model together with the existing wealth of geological and geochemical data on the volcano to demonstrate the influence of the hydrothermal system dynamics on the hazards associated to collapse-prone altered volcanic edifices.

Muon dynamic radiography of density changes induced by hydrothermal activity at the La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano.

Imaging geological structures through cosmic muon radiography is a newly developed technique which shows a great potential in volcanology. Here we demonstrate that muon radiography permits to detect and characterize mass movements in shallow hydrothermal systems of low-energy active volcanoes like the La Soufrière lava dome. We present an experiment conducted on this volcano during the Summer 2014 and bring evidence that very important density changes occurred in three domains of the lava dome. Depending on their position and on the medium porosity the volumes of these domains vary from 1 × 10(6) m(3) to 7 × 10(6) m(3). However, the total mass budget remains approximately constant : two domains show a mass loss (Δm∈ [-0.8;-0.4] × 10(9) kg) and the third one a mass gain (Δm∈ [1.5; 2.5] × 10(9) kg). We attribute the negative mass changes to the formation of steam in shallow hydrothermal reservoir previously partly filled with liquid water. This coincides with the emergence of new fumaroles on top of the volcano. The positive mass change is synchronized with the negative mass changes indicating that liquid water probably flowed from the two reservoirs invaded by steam toward the third reservoir.

Transitions between explosive and effusive phases during the cataclysmic 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia.

Transitions between explosive and effusive activity are commonly observed during dome-forming eruptions and may be linked to factors such as magma influx, ascent rate and degassing. However, the interplay between these factors is complex and the resulting eruptive behaviour often unpredictable. This paper focuses on the driving forces behind the explosive and effusive activity during the well-documented 2010 eruption of Merapi, the volcano's largest eruption since 1872. Time-controlled samples were collected from the 2010 deposits, linked to eruption stage and style of activity. These include scoria and pumice from the initial explosions, dense and scoriaceous dome samples formed via effusive activity, as well as scoria and pumice samples deposited during subplinian column collapse. Quantitative textural analysis of groundmass feldspar microlites, including measurements of areal number density, mean microlite size, crystal aspect ratio, groundmass crystallinity and crystal size distribution analysis, reveal that shallow pre- and syn-eruptive magmatic processes acted to govern the changing behaviour during the eruption. High-An (up to ∼80 mol% An) microlites from early erupted samples reveal that the eruption was likely preceded by an influx of hotter or more mafic magma. Transitions between explosive and effusive activity in 2010 were driven primarily by the dynamics of magma ascent in the conduit, with degassing and crystallisation acting via feedback mechanisms, resulting in cycles of effusive and explosive activity. Explosivity during the 2010 eruption was enhanced by the presence of a 'plug' of cooled magma within the shallow magma plumbing system, which acted to hinder degassing, leading to overpressure prior to initial explosive activity.

The 1257 Samalas eruption (Lombok, Indonesia): the single greatest stratospheric gas release of the Common Era.

Large explosive eruptions inject volcanic gases and fine ash to stratospheric altitudes, contributing to global cooling at the Earth's surface and occasionally to ozone depletion. The modelling of the climate response to these strong injections of volatiles commonly relies on ice-core records of volcanic sulphate aerosols. Here we use an independent geochemical approach which demonstrates that the great 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lombok, Indonesia) released enough sulphur and halogen gases into the stratosphere to produce the reported global cooling during the second half of the 13th century, as well as potential substantial ozone destruction. Major, trace and volatile element compositions of eruptive products recording the magmatic differentiation processes leading to the 1257 eruption indicate that Mt Samalas released 158 ± 12 Tg of sulphur dioxide, 227 ± 18 Tg of chlorine and a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.3 Tg of bromine. These emissions stand as the greatest volcanogenic gas injection of the Common Era. Our findings not only provide robust constraints for the modelling of the combined impact of sulphur and halogens on stratosphere chemistry of the largest eruption of the last millennium, but also develop a methodology to better quantify the degassing budgets of explosive eruptions of all magnitudes.