The prognostic value of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in acute myocardial infarction: A propensity score-matched analysis.

AIM: Patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, the clinical characteristics and prognostic importance of MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yet to be examined. METHODS: This study compared the characteristics and outcomes of patients with and without MASLD presenting with AMI at a tertiary centre in Singapore. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, with at least one of five metabolic criteria. Hepatic steatosis was determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for age and sex. The Kaplan-Meier curve was constructed for long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In this study of 4446 patients with AMI, 2223 patients with MASLD were matched with patients without MASLD using propensity scores. The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 2.4 years. The MASLD group had higher rates of obesity, diabetes and chronic kidney disease than their counterparts. Patients with MASLD had early excess all-cause mortality (6.8% vs. 3.6%, p < .001) at 30 days, with unfavourable mortality rates sustained in the long-term (18.3% vs. 14.5%, p = .001) compared with those without MASLD. After adjustment, MASLD remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.330, 95% confidence interval 1.106-1.598, p = .002). CONCLUSION: MASLD embodies a higher burden of metabolic dysfunction and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in the AMI population. Its early identification may be beneficial for risk stratification and provide therapeutic targets for secondary preventive strategies in AMI.

The Spectrum and Impact of Metabolic Dysfunction in MAFLD: A Longitudinal Cohort Analysis of 32,683 Overweight and Obese Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was recently proposed as an alternative name change for better encapsulation of disease. However, there exists a spectrum of MAFLD where both metabolically healthy (MH) and metabolically unhealthy (MU) individuals are included. In view of limited evidence, we sought to examine the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and differences in outcomes of MH-MAFLD at the population level. METHODS: Data were used from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999 to 2018. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to obtain odds ratios for the estimation of events. Survival analysis was conducted with Cox regression and the Fine-Gray subdistribution model. RESULTS: There were 32,683 overweight and obese individuals included in the analysis. In MAFLD patients, the prevalence of MH-MAFLD was 6.92% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.58%-7.27%), and 93.08% (95% CI, 92.73%-93.42%) were considered as MU-MAFLD. Multivariate analysis found a significantly higher risk of MACE (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28-1.49; P < .01), all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.17-1.32; P < .01), cardiovascular disease (SHR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02-1.42; P = .03), and cancer mortality (SHR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.07-1.44; P < .01) in MU-MAFLD relative to non-MAFLD. However, MH-MAFLD individuals were not associated with a statistically significant increased risk of these adverse outcomes compared with non-MAFLD. MU-MAFLD diabetics were also at a higher risk of adverse events compared with non-diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: This study reports on the heterogeneity and spectrum of metabolic dysfunction that exists in overweight and obese MAFLD. Although MAFLD may potentially be advantageous in improving awareness and patient outcomes, there remains substantial heterogeneity within patients included in MAFLD on the basis of the underlying metabolic burden.

Efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for treatment of overweight or obesity. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that tirzepatide, a dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic-peptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA), has significant weight loss effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for weight loss in patients with overweight or obesity. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on tirzepatide's weight loss efficacy for these patients. A single arm meta-analysis of proportions estimated primary outcomes, ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, and adverse events (AEs); while meta-analysis of means estimated secondary outcomes. Comparative meta-analysis was conducted between tirzepatide and control arms where mean differences and odds ratios were estimated for continuous and dichotomous outcomes respectively. RESULTS: RCTs included in this study revealed that among 5800 patients, 78.22% (95% CI: 72.15% to 83.73%), 55.60% (95% CI: 46.54% to 64.47%), 32.28% (95% CI: 23.17% to 42.12%) achieved ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, respectively. Tirzepatide 5 mg demonstrated weight loss superiority relative to placebo (MD: -12.47 kg, 95% CI: -13.94 kg to -11.00 kg) and semaglutide (n = 1409, MD: -1.90 kg, 95% CI: -2.97 kg to -0.83 kg) with dose-dependent increase for 10 mg and 15 mg doses. The comparison between tirzepatide and semaglutide was examined in the SURPASS-2 trial that was included in this systematic review. For AEs, there was increase odds of experiencing gastrointestinal AEs with tirzepatide compared to placebo, but no significant difference with semaglutide. CONCLUSION: Tirzepatide has significant potential as a weight loss drug in patients with overweight and obesity, with little increase in AEs compared to other weight loss drugs. With its ability to concurrently target multiple aspects of metabolic syndrome, it should be considered as the next helm of weight loss therapies.

Hepatic steatosis and advanced hepatic fibrosis are independent predictors of long-term mortality in acute myocardial infarction.

AIM: To examine the prevalence and prognosis of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. METHODS: Patients presenting with AMI to a tertiary hospital were examined from 2014 to 2021. Hepatic steatosis and advanced hepatic fibrosis were determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index and fibrosis-4 index, respectively. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox regression models identified determinants of mortality after adjustments and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for all-cause mortality, stratified by hepatic steatosis and advanced fibrosis. RESULTS: Of 5765 patients included, 24.8% had hepatic steatosis, of whom 41.7% were diagnosed with advanced fibrosis. The median follow-up duration was 2.7 years. Patients with hepatic steatosis tended to be younger, female, with elevated body mass index and an increased metabolic burden of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Patients with hepatic steatosis (24.6% vs. 20.9% mortality, P < .001) and advanced fibrosis (45.6% vs. 32.9% mortality, P < .001) had higher all-cause mortality rates compared with their respective counterparts. Hepatic steatosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.364, 95% CI 1.145-1.625, P = .001) was associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders. Survival curves showed excess mortality in patients with hepatic steatosis compared with those without (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic steatosis and advanced fibrosis have a substantial prevalence among patients with AMI. Both are associated with mortality, with an incrementally higher risk when advanced fibrosis ensues. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis could help risk stratification of AMI patients beyond conventional risk factors.

Barriers and Facilitators to Engagement With a Weight Management Intervention in Asian Patients With Overweight or Obesity: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic is a global health concern with Asian countries facing one of the most rapid rises in obesity rates. However, given the underwhelming long-term efficacy of weight loss strategies, especially in Asia, this review aimed to explore barriers and facilitators to weight management of patients with overweight and obesity in Asia. METHODS: Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were searched for articles discussing barriers and facilitators of treatment to obesity from the perspectives of both health care professionals (HCPs) and patients. Qualitative and mixed method studies from Asia were included. Key quotes were extracted, coded, and thematically analyzed according to the methodology of Thomas and Harden. RESULTS: A total of 26 articles were included in this review. From patient perspectives, 3 main themes were identified: factors influencing poor eating behavior, inhibiting lifestyle modifications, and facilitating lifestyle modifications. Patients highlighted several barriers including the lack of social support, physiologic limitations to exercise, and low health literacy. Rigid sociocultural norms and lack of accessible health care services, exercise facilities, and healthy food exacerbated the barriers. Facilitators to lifestyle modifications consisted of strong support systems and high health literacy. HCPs agreed that low health literacy, lack of social support, and patient motivation impeded patients' weight loss attempts but were unaware of the other barriers they faced. CONCLUSION: There are discrepancies between ideas of barriers and facilitators of HCPs and patients. A mixture of population level, primary care, and personal interventions are required to address this disparity, and enhanced health literacy can improve weight loss outcomes.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease vs. type 2 diabetes mellitus non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a longitudinal cohort analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is comorbidity commonly presenting with fatty liver. A recently proposed definition of "metabolic associated fatty liver disease" (MAFLD) is thought to replace non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Yet, despite the significant prevalence of T2DM among fatty liver, there remains limited evidence on the impact of the change in the definition of T2DM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The current study uses data from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2018. Survival analysis was conducted with a cox regression and sub-distribution hazard ratio for competing risk events. RESULTS: 6727 patients had a diagnosis of T2DM. 4982 individuals with T2DM had MAFLD and 2032 were MAFLD(+)/NAFLD(-), while 2950 patients were MAFLD(+)/NAFLD(+). The new definition increased fatty liver diagnosis by 68.89%. Patients who were classified as MAFLD(+)/NAFLD(-) were at a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, advanced fibrosis, all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality compared to MAFLD(+)/NAFLD(+). In MAFLD(+)/NAFLD(-), viral hepatitis significantly increases the odds of advanced fibrosis (OR: 6.77, CI: 3.92 to 11.7, p < 0.001) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.75, CI: 1.29 to 2.40, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The identification and treatment of NAFLD in patients with T2DM is a major concern and the premature change to MAFLD results in an over-diagnosis of fatty liver, exaggerated mortality, and morbidity in patients with T2DM. The definition of MAFLD causes further heterogeneity in fatty liver disease/NAFLD.

Long-term outcomes in acute coronary syndrome patients without standard modifiable risk factors: a multi-ethnic retrospective cohort study Of 5400 asian patients.

A sizeable number of patients without standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs), such as hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia and smoking, suffer from acute coronary syndrome (ACS). These SMuRF-less patients have high short-term morbidity and mortality. We compared both short- and long-term outcomes of SMuRF-less and SMuRF ACS patients in a multi-ethnic Asian cohort.This was a retrospective study of patients with first ACS from 2011 to 2017. The primary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were 30-day all-cause mortality, cardiac-mortality, unplanned cardiac readmission, cardiogenic shock, heart failure, and stroke. Subgroup analysis was carried out by sex and ACS type.Of 5400 patients, 8.6% were SMuRF-less. The median follow-up time was 6.3 years (interquartile range [IQR] 4.2-8.2 years). SMuRF-less patients were younger and tended to present with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). They were more likely to require inotropic support, intubation, and have cardiac arrest. At 30 days, SMuRF-less patients had higher rates of all-cause mortality, cardiac-related mortality and cardiogenic shock, but lower rates of heart failure. At 6 years, all-cause mortality was similar in both groups (18.0% versus 17.1% respectively, p = 0.631). Kaplan-Meier curves showed increased early mortality in the SMuRF-less group, but the divergence in survival curves was no longer present in the long-term. The absence of SMuRF was an independent predictor of mortality, regardless of sex or ACS type.In a multi-ethnic cohort of patients with ACS, SMuRF-less patients were observed to have higher mortality than SMuRF patients during the early stages which was attenuated over time.

Comparison of biodegradable and newer generation durable polymer drug-eluting stents with short-term dual antiplatelet therapy: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized trials comprising of 43,875 patients.

Newer generation durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DP-DES) and biodegradable polymer DES (BP-DES) have similar efficacy with dual-antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) duration of > 6 months. However, this difference in outcomes have not been well studied in shorter DAPT regime. This study compares the safety and efficacy profiles of DP-DES and BP-DES based on short-term (1-3 months), intermediate-term (4-6 months) and standard DAPT (6-12 months) durations. A search was conducted on Embase and Medline for Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) comparing stent types, and DAPT durations. Primary endpoints include cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), definite stent thrombosis, stroke, target vessel revascularization (TVR) and major bleeding. Network analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence. A total of 15 RCTs involving 43,875 patients were included. DP-DES was associated with significantly lower major bleeding rates compared to BP-DES (RR 0.44, Crl 0.22-0.83) in short-term DAPT. Among DP-DES patients, short-term DAPT was associated with lower major bleeding risk compared to standard DAPT (RR 0.47, CrI 0.32-0.69). This favorable bleeding profile with short DAPT was not found in BP-DES patients. Cardiac death, MI, definite stent thrombosis, stroke and TVR rates were similar across the various DAPT durations and stent types. Our preliminary findings demonstrated comparable efficacy and safety outcomes between BP-DES and newer generation BP-DES across various DAPT durations. In patients requiring short DAPT, DP-DES had more favourable major bleeding profile compared to BP-DES, without compromising anti-thrombotic efficacy.

Long-Term Prognosis of Acute Myocardial Infarction Associated With Metabolic Health and Obesity Status.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging evidence supports the favorable cardiovascular health in nonobese subjects with healthy metabolism. However, little is known regarding the prognosis across the range of metabolic phenotypes once cardiovascular disease is established. We examined the prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) stratified according to metabolic health and obesity status. METHODS: This is a retrospective study on consecutive patients with AMI admitted to a tertiary hospital between 2014 and 2021. Patients were allocated into the following 4 groups based on metabolic and obesity profile: (1) metabolically healthy obese (MHO), (2) metabolically healthy nonobese (MHNO), (3) metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO), and (4) metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUNO). Metabolic health was defined in accordance to the Biobank Standardisation and Harmonisation for Research Excellence in the European Union Healthy Obese Project. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The Cox regression analysis examined the independent association between mortality and metabolic phenotypes, adjusting for age, sex, AMI type, chronic kidney disease, smoking status, and left ventricular ejection fraction. RESULTS: Of 9958 patients, the majority (68.5%) were MUNO, followed by MUO (25.1%), MHNO (5.6%), and MHO (0.8%). MHO had the lowest mortality (7.4%), followed by MHNO (9.7%), MUO (19.2%), and MUNO (22.6%) (P < .001). Compared with MHNO, MUO (hazard ratio [HR], 1.737; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.282-2.355; P < .001) and MUNO (HR, 1.482; 95% CI, 1.108-1.981; P = .008) had a significantly higher mortality risk but not MHO (HR, 1.390; 95% CI, 0.594-3.251; P = .447), after adjusting for confounders. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed favorable survival in the metabolically healthy and obesity groups, with the highest overall survival in the MHO, followed by MHNO, MUO, and MUNO (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Metabolically healthy and obese patients with AMI have favorable prognosis compared with metabolically unhealthy and nonobese patients. It is equally important to prioritize intensive metabolic risk factor management to weight reduction in the early phase after AMI.

Inter-Ethnic Differences in Valvular Dysfunction, Aortopathy, and Progression of Disease of an Asian Bicuspid Aortic Valve Population.

BACKGROUND: There are differences in bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) characteristics between Asian and European populations, but little is known about the inter-ethnic differences in bicuspid valve function and aortic root dimensions within the diverse Asian population. METHODS: From 1992-2017, 562 patients with index echocardiographic diagnosis of BAV in a tertiary health care institution in Singapore were analysed according to their ethnic groups: Chinese, Malay, Indian, and Eurasian. Study outcomes included BAV complications (infective endocarditis, aortic dissection) and clinical outcomes (aortic valve surgery, aortic root surgery, all-cause mortality). Total events were defined as composite outcome of all BAV complications and outcomes. Aortic dimensions and aortic dilatation rates were also studied. RESULTS: There were 379 (67.5%) Chinese, 79 (14.0%) Malay, 73 (13.0%) Indian, and 31 (5.5%) Eurasian patients. Type 1 BAV (58.5%) was the most prevalent BAV morphology, with moderate-to-severe aortic stenosis (AS) (36.8%) being the most common complication in the overall population. There was a higher prevalence of type 0 BAV in Chinese and Indian groups, and type 1 BAV with fusion of left-right coronary cusp in Eurasian and Malay groups (p=0.082). There was no difference in significant AS among groups. The highest prevalence of moderate-to-severe aortic regurgitation was observed amongst the Eurasian group, followed by Chinese, Indian, and Malay groups (p=0.033). The Chinese group had the largest mean indexed diameters of the aortic root. Multivariable linear regression demonstrated that only the Chinese had significantly larger indexed diameters in the aortic annulus, sinotubular junction (STJ), and ascending aorta (AA), relative to the Eurasian group, after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, and aortic regurgitation. On follow-up echocardiography, there was a trend towards the highest dilatation rates of sinus of Valsalva and STJ amongst Indian, and AA amongst Malay groups. Kaplan-Meier curves showed the highest incidence of total events amongst Chinese, followed by Malay, Indian and Eurasian (log-rank=9.691; p=0.021) patients. CONCLUSION: There were differences in BAV morphology, valve dysfunction, aortopathy, and prognosis within the Asian population. Chinese patients had one of the highest prevalence of significant aortic regurgitation, with the largest aortic dimensions and worst outcomes compared with other Asian ethnicities. Closer surveillance is warranted in BAV patients within the Asian population.

Quality of life of family caregivers of children and young adults with Down syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: The aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis are to synthesise quality of life (QOL) of family caregivers of children and young adults with Down syndrome (DS) and determine factors affecting their QOL. Method: This review was conducted as per Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guideline. Key search terms were "quality of life", "down syndrome" and "trisomy 21". Meta-analysis using random effect model was conducted where feasible. All studies underwent qualitative synthesis. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023413532). Results: Eighteen studies with 1956 caregivers were included. Of the 10 studies utilising the World Health Organization Quality of Life Instrument-Brief Version, 5 were included in the meta-analysis. Psychosocial domain had the highest score with mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 63.18 (39.10-87.25). Scores were poorer in physical, environmental and social domains: 59.36 (28.24-90.48), 59.82 (19.57-100.07) and 59.83 (44.24-75.41), respectively. Studies were heterogenous with I2 values ranging from 99-100% (P<0.01). The remaining 8 studies used 6 other instruments. Qualitative synthesis revealed that caregivers' QOL was adversely affected by child-related factors, such as level of functional independence, developmental delay, presence of multiple comorbidities, impaired activities of daily living and poor sleep quality. Environmental factors that adversely affected caregivers' QOL included number of children, housing and support from the family. Personal factors that affected caregivers' QOL included age, being a single mother, low education and low income. Conclusion: QOL of caregivers of children with DS was lower than population reference data. Understand-ing the factors that influence family caregivers' QOL is an essential step towards improving the QOL of caregivers and their children with DS.

Quality of life of children and young adults with Down syndrome from caregivers' perspective: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Down syndrome (DS) negatively impacts the well-being of affected individuals. This study aimed to summarise the evidence on quality of life (QOL) of children and young adults with DS using quantitative measures from caregivers' perspective and identify factors that affected their QOL. Method: Database search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and CINAHL on 24 April 2024. Meta-analysis using random effects model was conducted where feasible. All studies underwent qualitative synthesis. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023413532). Results: Seventeen studies involving 3038 children with DS using various QOL measures were included: Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) (8 studies), KIDSCREEN (4 studies), KidsLife (2 studies), The Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research Academic Medical Center Children's QOL (2 studies) and Personal Outcome Scale (1 study). Meta-analysis on PedsQL studies compared scores between children with DS and typically developing (TD) children. Total scale score was lower in children with DS (mean 70.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 64.31-76.24) compared to TD children (mean 88.17, 95% CI 80.50-95.83). All subdomains of PedsQL were also lower in children with DS. Within the domain of psychosocial health, children with DS had statistically significant lower social functioning (standardised mean difference -1.40, 95% CI -2.27 to -0.53) and school functioning (standardised mean difference -1.09, 95% CI -1.55 to -0.62) scores, but similar emotional functioning scores. Qualitative synthesis revealed poorer subdomain QOL compared to TD children, especially in social functioning and cognitive functioning. QOL worsened during adolescent years. Family variables (parental education and occupation) did not affect parental perception of children's QOL. Children with DS who had higher intelligent quotient had better QOL. Conclusion: Children with DS have lower caregiver-reported QOL than TD children, especially in social functioning and school functioning subdomains.

Efficacy and safety of tirzepatide, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and other weight loss drugs in overweight and obesity: a network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This network meta-analysis evaluates the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide compared to glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) and other weight loss drugs in the treatment of overweight and obesity. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for randomized controlled trials on tirzepatide, GLP-1 RA, and weight loss drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. A network meta-analysis was performed, drawing direct and indirect comparisons between treatment groups. Network diagrams and surface under the cumulative ranking curve analysis were performed for primary (≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, absolute weight loss) and secondary outcomes and adverse effects. RESULTS: Thirty-one randomized controlled trials, involving more than 35,000 patients, were included in this study. Tirzepatide 15 mg ranked in the top three across weight-related parameters, glycemic profile (glycated hemoglobin), lipid parameters (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides), and blood pressure. Tirzepatide 15 mg had the highest efficacy compared with placebo for achieving ≥15% weight loss (risk ratio 10.24, 95% CI: 6.42-16.34). As compared to placebo, tirzepatide and GLP-1 RA across all doses had significant increases in gastrointestinal adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: The superiority of tirzepatide and GLP-1 RA in inducing weight loss and their ability to target multiple metabolic parameters render them promising candidates in the treatment of patients with overweight and obesity.

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.

AIMS: The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population). CONCLUSION: In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases. REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

The global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is expected to rise in the next few decades, driven primarily by an ageing populace worldwide. When standardized by age and population, CVD prevalence is expected to remain relatively constant, while mortality is expected to fall. This suggests that the effects of primary prevention efforts are set to remain roughly constant, while worldwide treatment outcomes are anticipated to improve.High blood pressures, dietary risks, and high cholesterol are the predominant risk factors expected to drive cardiovascular diseases from 2025 to 2050. A high body-mass index is likely to see a rapid rise in certain regions. Effective region-specific interventions are vital to arrest the CVD trajectory.

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

Meta-analysis of the Placebo and Nocebo effects associated with Placebo treatment in randomized trials of lipid-lowering therapies.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) in which the control groups received placebo without background LLT offer unique insights into the placebo and nocebo effects of lipid-lowering RCTs. METHODS AND RESULTS: Embase and Medline were searched for hyperlipidaemia RCTs with placebo-controlled arms. Placebo arms with background LLT were excluded. A single arm meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and adverse events (AE). A meta-analysis of means was used to estimate the pooled mean differences of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and triglycerides (TG).A total of 40 RCTs and 37 668 placebo-treated participants were included. The pooled mean changes for TC, LDL, HDL, and TG were -0.019 mmol/L, -0.028 mmol/L, 0.013 mmol/L, and 0.062 mmol/L respectively among placebo-treated participants, indicating a modest placebo effect. The pooled average nocebo effect among placebo-treated participants was 42.62% for all AEs and 3.38% for musculoskeletal-related AEs, 11.36% for gastrointestinal-related AEs, and 6.62% for headaches. Placebo-treated participants in secondary prevention RCTs had a far higher incidence of these nocebo effects than primary prevention RCTs: any AEs (OR 6.76, 95% CI: 5.56-8.24, P < 0.001), and gastrointestinal-related AE (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.00-1.51, P = 0.049). No differences in nocebo effects were found between the placebo arms of statin and non-statin trials. CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis of placebo-treated participants in RCTs with no background LLT indicate a modest placebo effect but prominent nocebo effect of musculoskeletal, headache, and gastrointestinal symptoms that was greatest among secondary prevention RCTs. These findings may inform the design of future LLT RCTs.

Higher mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients without standard modifiable risk factors: Results from a global meta-analysis of 1,285,722 patients.

BACKGROUND: Standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRF), comprising diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and smoking, are used for risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Recent studies showed an increasing proportion of SMuRF-less ACS patients. METHODS: Embase, Medline and Pubmed were searched for studies comparing SMuRF-less and SMuRF patients with first presentation of ACS. We conducted single-arm analyses to determine the proportion of SMuRF-less patients in the ACS cohort, and compared the clinical presentation and outcomes of these patients. RESULTS: Of 1,285,722 patients from 15 studies, 11.56% were SMuRF-less. A total of 7.44% of non-ST-segment-elevation ACS patients and 12.87% of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients were SMuRF-less. The proportion of SMuRF-less patients presenting with STEMI (60.71%) tended to be higher than those with SMuRFs (49.21%). Despite lower body mass index and fewer comorbidities such as chronic kidney disease, peripheral arterial disease, stroke and heart failure, SMuRF-less patients had increased in-hospital mortality (RR:1.57, 95%CI:1.38 to 1.80) and cardiogenic shock (RR:1.39, 95%CI:1.18 to 1.65), but lower risk of heart failure (RR:0.91, 95%CI:0.83 to 0.99). On discharge, SMuRF-less patients were prescribed less statins (RR:0.93, 95%CI:0.91 to 0.95), beta-blockers (RR:0.94, 95%CI:0.92 to 0.96), P2Y12 inhibitors (RR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.96 to 0.99), and angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blocker (RR:0.92, 95%CI:0.75 to 0.91). CONCLUSION: In this study level meta-analysis, SMuRF-less ACS patients demonstrate higher mortality compared with patients with at least one traditional atherosclerotic risk factor. Underuse of guideline-directed medical therapy amongst SMuRF-less patients is concerning. Unraveling novel risk factors amongst SMuRF-less individuals is the next important step. SUMMARY: Standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRF), comprising diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and smoking, are often used for risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Recent studies showed an increasing proportion of SMuRF-less ACS patients. Of 1,285,722 ACS patients, 11.56% were SMuRF-less. Despite lower body mass index and fewer comorbidities, SMuRF-less patients had increased in-hospital mortality and cardiogenic shock. However, despite worse outcomes, SMuRF-less patients were prescribed less guideline-directed medical therapies on discharge.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Coexisting Obesity and Malnutrition After Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The double burden of malnutrition, described as the coexistence of malnutrition and obesity, is a growing global health issue. This study examines the combined effects of obesity and malnutrition on patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: Patients presenting with AMI to a percutaneous coronary intervention-capable hospital in Singapore between January 2014 and March 2021 were retrospectively studied. Patients were stratified into the following: (1) nourished nonobese, (2) malnourished nonobese, (3) nourished obese, and (4) malnourished obese. Obesity and malnutrition were defined according to the World Health Organization definition (body mass index ≥27.5 kg/m2) and Controlling Nutritional Status score, respectively. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The association between combined obesity and nutritional status with mortality was examined using Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, AMI type, previous AMI, ejection fraction, and chronic kidney disease. Kaplan-Meier curves for all-cause mortality were constructed. RESULTS: The study included 1829 AMI patients, of which 75.7% were male and mean age was 66 years. Over 75% of patients were malnourished. Majority were malnourished nonobese (57.7%), followed by malnourished obese (18.8%), nourished nonobese (16.9%), and nourished obese (6.6%). Malnourished nonobese had highest all-cause mortality (38.6%), followed by the malnourished obese (35.8%), nourished nonobese (21.4%), and nourished obese (9.9%, P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated least favorable survival in malnourished nonobese group, followed by malnourished obese, nourished nonobese, and nourished obese. With nourished nonobese group as the reference, malnourished nonobese had higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.10-1.96], P=0.010), but only a nonsignificant increase in mortality was observed in the malnourished obese (hazard ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 0.94-1.83], P=0.112). CONCLUSIONS: Among AMI patients, malnutrition is prevalent even in the obese. Compared to nourished patients, malnourished AMI patients have a more unfavorable prognosis especially in those with severe malnutrition regardless of obesity status, but long-term survival is the most favorable among nourished obese patients.

Epicardial Adipose Tissue Assessed by Computed Tomography and Echocardiography Are Associated With Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has garnered attention as a prognostic and risk stratification factor for cardiovascular disease. This study, via meta-analyses, evaluates the associations between EAT and cardiovascular outcomes stratified across imaging modalities, ethnic groups, and study protocols. METHODS: Medline and Embase databases were searched without date restriction on May 2022 for articles that examined EAT and cardiovascular outcomes. The inclusion criteria were (1) studies measuring EAT of adult patients at baseline and (2) reporting follow-up data on study outcomes of interest. The primary study outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events. Secondary study outcomes included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Twenty-nine articles published between 2012 and 2022, comprising 19 709 patients, were included in our analysis. Increased EAT thickness and volume were associated with higher risks of cardiac death (odds ratio, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.17-5.44]; P=0.020; n=4), myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.39-4.96]; P=0.003; n=5), coronary revascularization (odds ratio, 2.99 [95% CI, 1.64-5.44]; P<0.001; n=5), and atrial fibrillation (adjusted odds ratio, 4.04 [95% CI, 3.06-5.32]; P<0.001; n=3). For 1 unit increment in the continuous measure of EAT, computed tomography volumetric quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.42-2.13]; P<0.001) and echocardiographic thickness quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]; P<0.001) conferred an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: The utility of EAT as an imaging biomarker for predicting and prognosticating cardiovascular disease is promising, with increased EAT thickness and volume being identified as independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42022338075.