Slow expanders invade by forming dented fronts in microbial colonies.

Most organisms grow in space, whether they are viruses spreading within a host tissue or invasive species colonizing a new continent. Evolution typically selects for higher expansion rates during spatial growth, but it has been suggested that slower expanders can take over under certain conditions. Here, we report an experimental observation of such population dynamics. We demonstrate that mutants that grow slower in isolation nevertheless win in competition, not only when the two types are intermixed, but also when they are spatially segregated into sectors. The latter was thought to be impossible because previous studies focused exclusively on the global competitions mediated by expansion velocities, but overlooked the local competitions at sector boundaries. Local competition, however, can enhance the velocity of either type at the sector boundary and thus alter expansion dynamics. We developed a theory that accounts for both local and global competitions and describes all possible sector shapes. In particular, the theory predicted that a slower on its own, but more competitive, mutant forms a dented V-shaped sector as it takes over the expansion front. Such sectors were indeed observed experimentally, and their shapes matched quantitatively with the theory. In simulations, we further explored several mechanisms that could provide slow expanders with a local competitive advantage and showed that they are all well-described by our theory. Taken together, our results shed light on previously unexplored outcomes of spatial competition and establish a universal framework to understand evolutionary and ecological dynamics in expanding populations.

Ecological landscapes guide the assembly of optimal microbial communities.

Assembling optimal microbial communities is key for various applications in biofuel production, agriculture, and human health. Finding the optimal community is challenging because the number of possible communities grows exponentially with the number of species, and so an exhaustive search cannot be performed even for a dozen species. A heuristic search that improves community function by adding or removing one species at a time is more practical, but it is unknown whether this strategy can discover an optimal or nearly optimal community. Using consumer-resource models with and without cross-feeding, we investigate how the efficacy of search depends on the distribution of resources, niche overlap, cross-feeding, and other aspects of community ecology. We show that search efficacy is determined by the ruggedness of the appropriately-defined ecological landscape. We identify specific ruggedness measures that are both predictive of search performance and robust to noise and low sampling density. The feasibility of our approach is demonstrated using experimental data from a soil microbial community. Overall, our results establish the conditions necessary for the success of the heuristic search and provide concrete design principles for building high-performing microbial consortia.

Genealogical structure changes as range expansions transition from pushed to pulled.

Range expansions accelerate evolution through multiple mechanisms, including gene surfing and genetic drift. The inference and control of these evolutionary processes ultimately rely on the information contained in genealogical trees. Currently, there are two opposing views on how range expansions shape genealogies. In invasion biology, expansions are typically approximated by a series of population bottlenecks producing genealogies with only pairwise mergers between lineages-a process known as the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, traveling wave models predict a coalescent with multiple mergers, known as the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. Here, we unify these two approaches and show that expansions can generate an entire spectrum of coalescent topologies. Specifically, we show that tree topology is controlled by growth dynamics at the front and exhibits large differences between pulled and pushed expansions. These differences are explained by the fluctuations in the total number of descendants left by the early founders. High growth cooperativity leads to a narrow distribution of reproductive values and the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, low growth cooperativity results in a broad distribution, whose exponent controls the merger sizes in the genealogies. These broad distribution and non-Kingman tree topologies emerge due to the fluctuations in the front shape and position and do not occur in quasi-deterministic simulations. Overall, our results show that range expansions provide a robust mechanism for generating different types of multiple mergers, which could be similar to those observed in populations with strong selection or high fecundity. Thus, caution should be exercised in making inferences about the origin of non-Kingman genealogies.

Growth instabilities shape morphology and genetic diversity of microbial colonies.

Cellular populations assume an incredible variety of shapes ranging from circular molds to irregular tumors. While we understand many of the mechanisms responsible for these spatial patterns, little is known about how the shape of a population influences its ecology and evolution. Here, we investigate this relationship in the context of microbial colonies grown on hard agar plates. This a well-studied system that exhibits a transition from smooth circular disks to more irregular and rugged shapes as either the nutrient concentration or cellular motility is decreased. Starting from a mechanistic model of colony growth, we identify two dimensionless quantities that determine how morphology and genetic diversity of the population depend on the model parameters. Our simulations further reveal that population dynamics cannot be accurately described by the commonly-used surface growth models. Instead, one has to explicitly account for the emergent growth instabilities and demographic fluctuations. Overall, our work links together environmental conditions, colony morphology, and evolution. This link is essential for a rational design of concrete, biophysical perturbations to steer evolution in the desired direction.

Cooperation mitigates diversity loss in a spatially expanding microbial population.

The evolution and potentially even the survival of a spatially expanding population depends on its genetic diversity, which can decrease rapidly due to a serial founder effect. The strength of the founder effect is predicted to depend strongly on the details of the growth dynamics. Here, we probe this dependence experimentally using a single microbial species, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, expanding in multiple environments that induce varying levels of cooperativity during growth. We observe a drastic reduction in diversity during expansions when yeast grows noncooperatively on simple sugars, but almost no loss of diversity when cooperation is required to digest complex metabolites. These results are consistent with theoretical expectations: When cells grow independently from each other, the expansion proceeds as a pulled wave driven by growth at the low-density tip of the expansion front. Such populations lose diversity rapidly because of the strong genetic drift at the expansion edge. In contrast, diversity loss is substantially reduced in pushed waves that arise due to cooperative growth. In such expansions, the low-density tip of the front grows much more slowly and is often reseeded from the genetically diverse population core. Additionally, in both pulled and pushed expansions, we observe a few instances of abrupt changes in allele fractions due to rare fluctuations of the expansion front and show how to distinguish such rapid genetic drift from selective sweeps.

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves.

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction-diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is -1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought.

Genetic drift in range expansions is very sensitive to density dependence in dispersal and growth.

Theory predicts rapid genetic drift during invasions, yet many expanding populations maintain high genetic diversity. We find that genetic drift is dramatically suppressed when dispersal rates increase with the population density because many more migrants from the diverse, high-density regions arrive at the expansion edge. When density dependence is weak or negative, the effective population size of the front scales only logarithmically with the carrying capacity. The dependence, however, switches to a sublinear power law and then to a linear increase as the density dependence becomes strongly positive. We develop a unified framework revealing that the transitions between different regimes of diversity loss are controlled by a single, universal quantity: the ratio of the expansion velocity to the geometric mean of dispersal and growth rates at expansion edge. Our results suggest that positive density dependence could dramatically alter evolution in expanding populations even when its contribution to the expansion velocity is small.

Evolution at the Edge of Expanding Populations.

Predicting the evolution of expanding populations is critical to controlling biological threats such as invasive species and cancer metastasis. Expansion is primarily driven by reproduction and dispersal, but nature abounds with examples of evolution where organisms pay a reproductive cost to disperse faster. When does selection favor this "survival of the fastest"? We searched for a simple rule, motivated by evolution experiments where swarming bacteria evolved into a hyperswarmer mutant that disperses ∼100% faster but pays a growth cost of ∼10% to make many copies of its flagellum. We analyzed a two-species model based on the Fisher equation to explain this observation: the population expansion rate (v) results from an interplay of growth (r) and dispersal (D) and is independent of the carrying capacity: v=2(rD)1/2 . A mutant can take over the edge only if its expansion rate (v2) exceeds the expansion rate of the established species (v1); this simple condition ( v2>v1 ) determines the maximum cost in slower growth that a faster mutant can pay and still be able to take over. Numerical simulations and time-course experiments where we tracked evolution by imaging bacteria suggest that our findings are general: less favorable conditions delay but do not entirely prevent the success of the fastest. Thus, the expansion rate defines a traveling wave fitness, which could be combined with trade-offs to predict evolution of expanding populations.

Pinned, locked, pushed, and pulled traveling waves in structured environments.

Traveling fronts describe the transition between two alternative states in a great number of physical and biological systems. Examples include the spread of beneficial mutations, chemical reactions, and the invasions by foreign species. In homogeneous environments, the alternative states are separated by a smooth front moving at a constant velocity. This simple picture can break down in structured environments such as tissues, patchy landscapes, and microfluidic devices. Habitat fragmentation can pin the front at a particular location or lock invasion velocities into specific values. Locked velocities are not sensitive to moderate changes in dispersal or growth and are determined by the spatial and temporal periodicity of the environment. The synchronization with the environment results in discontinuous fronts that propagate as periodic pulses. We characterize the transition from continuous to locked invasions and show that it is controlled by positive density-dependence in dispersal or growth. We also demonstrate that velocity locking is robust to demographic and environmental fluctuations and examine stochastic dynamics and evolution in locked invasions.

Chirality provides a direct fitness advantage and facilitates intermixing in cellular aggregates.

Chirality in shape and motility can evolve rapidly in microbes and cancer cells. To determine how chirality affects cell fitness, we developed a model of chiral growth in compact aggregates such as microbial colonies and solid tumors. Our model recapitulates previous experimental findings and shows that mutant cells can invade by increasing their chirality or switching their handedness. The invasion results either in a takeover or stable coexistence between the mutant and the ancestor depending on their relative chirality. For large chiralities, the coexistence is accompanied by strong intermixing between the cells, while spatial segregation occurs otherwise. We show that the competition within the aggregate is mediated by bulges in regions where the cells with different chiralities meet. The two-way coupling between aggregate shape and natural selection is described by the chiral Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation coupled to the Burgers' equation with multiplicative noise. We solve for the key features of this theory to explain the origin of selection on chirality. Overall, our work suggests that chirality could be an important ecological trait that mediates competition, invasion, and spatial structure in cellular populations.

Interactions between species introduce spurious associations in microbiome studies.

Microbiota contribute to many dimensions of host phenotype, including disease. To link specific microbes to specific phenotypes, microbiome-wide association studies compare microbial abundances between two groups of samples. Abundance differences, however, reflect not only direct associations with the phenotype, but also indirect effects due to microbial interactions. We found that microbial interactions could easily generate a large number of spurious associations that provide no mechanistic insight. Using techniques from statistical physics, we developed a method to remove indirect associations and applied it to the largest dataset on pediatric inflammatory bowel disease. Our method corrected the inflation of p-values in standard association tests and showed that only a small subset of associations is directly linked to the disease. Direct associations had a much higher accuracy in separating cases from controls and pointed to immunomodulation, butyrate production, and the brain-gut axis as important factors in the inflammatory bowel disease.

Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations.

Slower recovery from perturbations near a tipping point and its indirect signatures in fluctuation patterns have been suggested to foreshadow catastrophes in a wide variety of systems. Recent studies of populations in the field and in the laboratory have used time-series data to confirm some of the theoretically predicted early warning indicators, such as an increase in recovery time or in the size and timescale of fluctuations. However, the predictive power of temporal warning signals is limited by the demand for long-term observations. Large-scale spatial data are more accessible, but the performance of warning signals in spatially extended systems needs to be examined empirically. Here we use spatially extended yeast populations, an experimental system with a fold bifurcation (tipping point), to evaluate early warning signals based on spatio-temporal fluctuations and to identify a novel spatial warning indicator. We found that two leading indicators based on fluctuations increased before collapse of connected populations; however, the magnitudes of the increases were smaller than those observed in isolated populations, possibly because local variation is reduced by dispersal. Furthermore, we propose a generic indicator based on deterministic spatial patterns, which we call 'recovery length'. As the spatial counterpart of recovery time, recovery length is the distance necessary for connected populations to recover from spatial perturbations. In our experiments, recovery length increased substantially before population collapse, suggesting that the spatial scale of recovery can provide a superior warning signal before tipping points in spatially extended systems.

Range expansions transition from pulled to pushed waves as growth becomes more cooperative in an experimental microbial population.

Range expansions are becoming more frequent due to environmental changes and rare long-distance dispersal, often facilitated by anthropogenic activities. Simple models in theoretical ecology explain many emergent properties of range expansions, such as a constant expansion velocity, in terms of organism-level properties such as growth and dispersal rates. Testing these quantitative predictions in natural populations is difficult because of large environmental variability. Here, we used a controlled microbial model system to study range expansions of populations with and without intraspecific cooperativity. For noncooperative growth, the expansion dynamics were dominated by population growth at the low-density front, which pulled the expansion forward. We found these expansions to be in close quantitative agreement with the classical theory of pulled waves by Fisher [Fisher RA (1937) Ann Eugen 7(4):355-369] and Skellam [Skellam JG (1951) Biometrika 38(1-2):196-218], suitably adapted to our experimental system. However, as cooperativity increased, the expansions transitioned to being pushed, that is, controlled by growth and dispersal in the bulk as well as in the front. Given the prevalence of cooperative growth in nature, understanding the effects of cooperativity is essential to managing invading species and understanding their evolution.

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

Tug-of-war between driver and passenger mutations in cancer and other adaptive processes.

Cancer progression is an example of a rapid adaptive process where evolving new traits is essential for survival and requires a high mutation rate. Precancerous cells acquire a few key mutations that drive rapid population growth and carcinogenesis. Cancer genomics demonstrates that these few driver mutations occur alongside thousands of random passenger mutations--a natural consequence of cancer's elevated mutation rate. Some passengers are deleterious to cancer cells, yet have been largely ignored in cancer research. In population genetics, however, the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations has been shown to cause population meltdown. Here we develop a stochastic population model where beneficial drivers engage in a tug-of-war with frequent mildly deleterious passengers. These passengers present a barrier to cancer progression describable by a critical population size, below which most lesions fail to progress, and a critical mutation rate, above which cancers melt down. We find support for this model in cancer age-incidence and cancer genomics data that also allow us to estimate the fitness advantage of drivers and fitness costs of passengers. We identify two regimes of adaptive evolutionary dynamics and use these regimes to understand successes and failures of different treatment strategies. A tumor's load of deleterious passengers can explain previously paradoxical treatment outcomes and suggest that it could potentially serve as a biomarker of response to mutagenic therapies. The collective deleterious effect of passengers is currently an unexploited therapeutic target. We discuss how their effects might be exacerbated by current and future therapies.

Range expansion promotes cooperation in an experimental microbial metapopulation.

Natural populations throughout the tree of life undergo range expansions in response to changes in the environment. Recent theoretical work suggests that range expansions can have a strong effect on evolution, even leading to the fixation of deleterious alleles that would normally be outcompeted in the absence of migration. However, little is known about how range expansions might influence alleles under frequency- or density-dependent selection. Moreover, there is very little experimental evidence to complement existing theory, since expanding populations are difficult to study in the natural environment. In this study, we have used a yeast experimental system to explore the effect of range expansions on the maintenance of cooperative behaviors, which commonly display frequency- and density-dependent selection and are widespread in nature. We found that range expansions favor the maintenance of cooperation in two ways: (i) through the enrichment of cooperators at the front of the expanding population and (ii) by allowing cooperators to "outrun" an invading wave of defectors. In this system, cooperation is enhanced through the coupling of population ecology and evolutionary dynamics in expanding populations, thus providing experimental evidence for a unique mechanism through which cooperative behaviors could be maintained in nature.

Impact of deleterious passenger mutations on cancer progression.

Cancer progression is driven by the accumulation of a small number of genetic alterations. However, these few driver alterations reside in a cancer genome alongside tens of thousands of additional mutations termed passengers. Passengers are widely believed to have no role in cancer, yet many passengers fall within protein-coding genes and other functional elements that can have potentially deleterious effects on cancer cells. Here we investigate the potential of moderately deleterious passengers to accumulate and alter the course of neoplastic progression. Our approach combines evolutionary simulations of cancer progression with an analysis of cancer sequencing data. From simulations, we find that passengers accumulate and largely evade natural selection during progression. Although individually weak, the collective burden of passengers alters the course of progression, leading to several oncological phenomena that are hard to explain with a traditional driver-centric view. We then tested the predictions of our model using cancer genomics data and confirmed that many passengers are likely damaging and have largely evaded negative selection. Finally, we use our model to explore cancer treatments that exploit the load of passengers by either (i) increasing the mutation rate or (ii) exacerbating their deleterious effects. Though both approaches lead to cancer regression, the latter is a more effective therapy. Our results suggest a unique framework for understanding cancer progression as a balance of driver and passenger mutations.

Evolution Arrests Invasions of Cooperative Populations.

Population expansions trigger many biomedical and ecological transitions, from tumor growth to invasions of non-native species. Although population spreading often selects for more invasive phenotypes, we show that this outcome is far from inevitable. In cooperative populations, mutations reducing dispersal have a competitive advantage. Such mutations then steadily accumulate at the expansion front, bringing invasion to a halt. Our findings are a rare example of evolution driving the population into an unfavorable state, and they could lead to new strategies to combat unwelcome invaders.

Public good diffusion limits microbial mutualism.

Standard game theory cannot describe microbial interactions mediated by diffusible molecules. Nevertheless, we show that one can still model microbial dynamics using game theory with parameters renormalized by diffusion. Contrary to expectations, greater sharing of metabolites reduces the strength of cooperation and leads to species extinction via a nonequilibrium phase transition. We report analytic results for the critical diffusivity and the length scale of species intermixing. Species producing slower public good is favored by selection when fitness saturates with nutrient concentration.

Genetic drift suppresses bacterial conjugation in spatially structured populations.

Conjugation is the primary mechanism of horizontal gene transfer that spreads antibiotic resistance among bacteria. Although conjugation normally occurs in surface-associated growth (e.g., biofilms), it has been traditionally studied in well-mixed liquid cultures lacking spatial structure, which is known to affect many evolutionary and ecological processes. Here we visualize spatial patterns of gene transfer mediated by F plasmid conjugation in a colony of Escherichia coli growing on solid agar, and we develop a quantitative understanding by spatial extension of traditional mass-action models. We found that spatial structure suppresses conjugation in surface-associated growth because strong genetic drift leads to spatial isolation of donor and recipient cells, restricting conjugation to rare boundaries between donor and recipient strains. These results suggest that ecological strategies, such as enforcement of spatial structure and enhancement of genetic drift, could complement molecular strategies in slowing the spread of antibiotic resistance genes.