Assessing the Fiscal Burden of Obesity in Canada by Applying a Public Economic Framework.

INTRODUCTION: Rising obesity prevalence is a health priority for many governments because of its impact on population health and economic consequences. We sought to estimate the broader consequences of obesity in Canada by applying a government perspective framework that captures lost tax revenues and increased government spending on social benefit programs. METHODS: An age-specific prevalence-based model was built to quantify the fiscal burden of disease for government attributed to people living with obesity. The model was populated with age-specific wages, employment activity and government benefits received to estimate taxes and transfer costs. A targeted literature search was conducted to identify modifiers of employment status, wages and disability status attributed to people with obesity, and applied to employment and epidemiological projections which enabled us to estimate government costs and tax losses. Government tax revenue and costs attributed to obesity were projected over a 10-year period and discounted at 3%. RESULTS: The fiscal burden of obesity in Canada is estimated at CAD$22,974 million (2021). This figure consists of obesity-attributed revenue losses of CAD$9404 million from direct taxes due to decreased employment activity and CAD$2374 million from indirect tax revenue losses due to reduced consumption taxes. Healthcare costs are estimated at CAD$7881 million annually and disability costs of CAD$3686 million annually. This fiscal burden of disease distributed amongst taxpayers in 2021 is estimated to be CAD$752 per capita. We estimate for every 1% reduction in obesity prevalence, CAD$229.7 million net fiscal gains can be achieved annually. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is associated with substantial clinical and economic burden not only to the healthcare system but also to wider government budgets as demonstrated using fiscal analysis. Reductions in obesity prevalence are likely to have positive fiscal gains for government from reduced spending on public benefits and increased tax revenue attributed to employment changes.

Fiscal analysis of the pediatric immunization program in Belgium applying a lifetime government perspective framework.

OBJECTIVES: A public economic framework was used to explore lifetime government costs and benefits in relation to the Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP) in Belgium based on cases and deaths averted. METHODS: To estimate changes in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from Belgium's Pediatric Immunization Program (PIP). The model considered differences in incidence rates with vaccines included in Belgium's PIP: compared with the pre-vaccine era. Changes in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to PIP on the Belgium 2020 birth cohort were used to estimate gross lifetime earnings changes, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoidance, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine. RESULTS: Vaccinating a single birth cohort according to the PIP gives rise to fiscal gains of €56 million in averted tax revenue loss, €8 million disability savings, and €6 million special education cost-savings. Based on the costs of implementing the PIP, we estimate the fiscal benefit-cost ratio (fBCR) of €2.2 investment return for the government from every €1 invested excluding longevity costs. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing vaccine-preventable conditions generates tax revenue for the government, providing fiscal justification for sustained immunization investments.

Assessing the fiscal consequences of novel and existing treatments for triple negative breast cancer in Switzerland by applying a government perspective framework.

BACKGROUND: Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer that can impact patients' employment and workforce participation. This study estimates how the employment effects of TNBC impact government tax revenue and public benefits expenditure in Switzerland, representing the fiscal burden of disease (FBoD), and likely consequences of introducing new treatment options. METHODS: A four-state cohort model was used to calculate fiscal effects for two treatments: Neoadjuvant pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy followed by adjuvant pembrolizumab monotherapy (P + C→P) and neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (C). Lifetime present values of tax revenue, social benefit payments, and healthcare costs were calculated for the average population and those undergoing treatment to assess the FBoD. RESULTS: An average TNBC patient treated with C and P + C→P is expected to generate CHF128,999 and CHF97,008 less tax than the average population, respectively, and require increased social benefit payments. Compared to C, 75% of the incremental healthcare costs of P + C→P are estimated to be offset through tax revenue gains. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates that 75% of the additional costs of a new TNBC treatment option can be offset by gains in tax revenue. Fiscal analysis can be a useful tool to complement existing methods for evaluating new treatments.

Estimating Public Economic Gains from Early Breast Cancer and Curative Treatment: A Case Study in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (HER-2) Positive Targeted Therapies.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer diagnosis influences the choices that patients make regarding current and future labor market activity. These choices have implications for governments based on resulting changes in taxes paid and benefits received. In this analysis we explore how human growth receptor 2 (HER2)-positive residual invasive breast cancer and different treatments influence government accounts excluding health costs. METHODS: HER2-positive early breast cancer (eBC) health states from a published disease model were used to establish likelihood of working and wage impact at different stages of disease. The indirect productivity losses for an average woman aged 49 years were translated into fiscal consequences to government by applying an established government perspective-modeling framework. The fiscal projections (discounted) include gross tax revenue by disease stage, government transfer costs related to time off work and early retirement ,and net fiscal balance (e.g., gross taxes-transfers) in three countries Canada, Portugal, and Brazil. RESULTS: The net fiscal balance in Canada for a healthy woman was C$109,551 compared with a HER2-positive eBC woman treated with trastuzumab emtansine (C$69,767) or trastuzumab (C$62,971). A similar pattern was observed in the three countries but reflecting the overall tax burden in each country, labor force activity, and available public benefits. Age at diagnosis was an important determinant of the likely net fiscal balance, as this influences the remaining working years. DISCUSSION: Women diagnosed with HER2-positive eBC were estimated to pay less lifetime gross taxes and receive more in sickness benefits compared with healthy women. Treatments that improve outcomes are likely to offer fiscal gains for government from improved work force participation.

Estimating the broader fiscal consequences of acute hepatic porphyria (AHP) with recurrent attacks in Belgium using a public economic analytic framework.

BACKGROUND: Acute hepatic porphyria (AHP) is a rare, debilitating disease characterized by potentially life-threatening attacks often resulting in chronic symptoms that negatively impact daily functioning and quality of life. Symptoms of AHP prevent many individuals from working and achieving lifetime work averages. The aim of this study was to apply a public economic framework to evaluate AHP in Belgium, taking into consideration a broad range of costs that are relevant to government in relation to social benefit payments and lifetime taxes paid. METHODOLOGY: A public economic framework was developed exploring lifetime costs for government attributed to an individual with AHP and recurrent attacks in Belgium. Work-activity and lifetime direct taxes paid, indirect consumption taxes and requirements for public benefits were estimated based on established clinical pathways for AHP and compared to the general population (GP). The model includes AHP-related healthcare costs and non-AHP healthcare costs for the GP. RESULTS: Lifetime earnings are reduced in an individual with AHP by €347,802 per person (p.p.), translating to reduced lifetime taxes paid of €183,187 for an AHP individual compared to the GP. We estimate increased lifetime disability benefit support of €247,242 for an AHP individual compared to GP. Lifetime healthcare costs for a person with AHP were estimated to be €3,030,316 due to frequent hospitalisations associated with porphyria attacks compared to the GP. The lifetime costs for a person with 12 attacks per annum factoring in transfers, taxes and healthcare costs are estimated to be €3,460,745 p.p. Eliminating AHP attacks after 10 years of active disease, thus, enabling a person to return to work increases lifetime earnings by €224,575 p.p. Increased work activity in such individuals would generate an estimated €118,284 p.p. over their lifetime. The elimination of AHP attacks could also lead to reductions in disability payments of €179,184 p.p. and healthcare cost savings of €1,511,027 p.p. CONCLUSIONS: Due to severe disability resulting from constant attacks, AHP patients with recurrent attacks incur significant public costs. Lifetime taxes paid are reduced as these attacks occur during peak earning and working years. In those patients, reducing AHP attacks can confer significant fiscal benefits for government, including reduced healthcare costs, reduced disability payments and improved tax revenue.

Comparing the Fiscal Consequences of Controlled and Uncontrolled Osteoarthritis Pain Applying a UK Public Economic Perspective.

Background: Individuals experiencing osteoarthritis (OA) pain can pose significant costs for governments due to reduced work activity in these individuals and increasing reliance on public support benefits. In this analysis we capture the broader economic impact of OA pain by applying a government perspective, public economic framework to assess controlled and uncontrolled pain. Methods: We used a Markov model to compare labour market participation in people with uncontrolled OA hip or knee pain compared to a cohort with controlled OA pain. The likelihood of employment, long-term sickness, disability, and early retirement in those with controlled pain used publicly available UK data. The relative effect of uncontrolled OA pain on fiscal outcomes is drawn from peer reviewed publications reporting reduced work activity and reliance on public benefits for people with uncontrolled OA pain. Lost tax revenue was derived using UK tax rates and national insurance contributions applied to annual earnings. Social benefit rules were applied to calculate government financial support to individuals. Health-care costs were calculated based on estimates from an UK observational study. The base case analysis compared the projected lost tax revenue and transfer payments for a 50-year-old cohort with severe OA pain, retiring at age 65. Results: For a 50-year-old individual with moderate uncontrolled OA pain with 15-years remaining work expectancy, the model estimated a £62 383 reduction in employment earnings, a £24 307 reduction in tax contributions and a need for £16 034 in government benefits, compared to a person with controlled OA pain. In people with severe uncontrolled OA pain incremental foregone earnings were estimated to be £126 384, £44 925 were not paid through taxation and £25 829 were received in public benefits, compared to the controlled pain cohort. Health-care costs represented 13% and 12% of all OA-related fiscal cost in the moderate uncontrolled OA pain and severe uncontrolled OA pain comparison, respectively. Conclusions: For governments, maintaining an active workforce is paramount to maintaining economic growth and reducing spending on government programs. The approach described here can be used to augment cost-effectiveness models to inform a range of stakeholders of benefits attributed to controlled OA pain.

Mobile Cardiac Outpatient Telemetry Patch vs Implantable Loop Recorder in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients in the US - Cost-Minimization Model.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare costs and outcomes of mobile cardiac outpatient telemetry (MCOT) patch followed by implantable loop recorder (ILR) compared to ILR alone in cryptogenic stroke patients from the US health-care payors' perspective. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A quantitative decision tree cost-minimization simulation model was developed. Eligible patients were 18 years of age or older and were diagnosed with having a cryptogenic stroke, without previously documented atrial fibrillation (AF). All patients were assigned first to one then to the alternative monitoring strategies. Following AF detection, patients were initiated on oral anticoagulants (OAC). The model assessed direct costs for one year attributed to MCOT patch followed by ILR or ILR alone using a monitoring duration of 30 days post-cryptogenic stroke. RESULTS: In the base case modeling, the MCOT patch arm detected 4.6 more patients with AFs compared to the ILR alone arm in a cohort of 1000 patients (209 vs 45 patients with detected AFs, respectively). Using MCOT patch followed by ILR in half of the patients initially undiagnosed with AF leads to significant cost savings of US$4,083,214 compared to ILR alone in a cohort of 1000 patients. Cost per patient with detected AF was significantly lower in the MCOT patch arm $29,598 vs $228,507 in the ILR only arm. CONCLUSION: An initial strategy of 30-day electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring with MCOT patch in diagnosis of AF in cryptogenic stroke patients realizes significant cost-savings compared to proceeding directly to ILR only. Almost 8 times lower costs were achieved with improved detection rates and reduction of secondary stroke risk due to new anticoagulant use in subjects with MCOT patch detected AF. These results strengthen emerging recommendations for prolonged ECG monitoring in secondary stroke prevention.

Modeling the fiscal costs and benefits of alternative treatment strategies in the United Kingdom for chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes substantial direct health costs, but also impacts broader societal and governmental costs, such as tax revenue and social protection benefits. This study investigated the broader fiscal costs and benefits of curative interventions for chronic Hepatitis C (CHC) that allow individuals to avoid long-term HCV attributed health conditions. METHODS: A prospective cohort model, assessing the long-term fiscal consequences of policy decisions, was developed for HCV infected individuals, following the generational accounting analytic framework that combines age-specific lifetime gross taxes paid and governmental transfers received (i.e. healthcare and social support costs). The analysis assessed the burden of a theoretical cohort of untreated HCV infected patients with the alternative of treating these patients with a highly efficacious curative intervention (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir [LDV/SOF]). It also compared treating patients at all fibrosis stages (Stages F0-F4) compared to late treatment (Stage F4). RESULTS: Based on projected lifetime work activity and taxes paid, the treated cohort paid an additional £5,900 per patient compared to the untreated cohort. Lifetime government disability costs of £97,555 and £125,359 per patient for treated cohort vs no treatment cohort were estimated, respectively. Lifetime direct healthcare costs in the treated cohort were £32,235, compared to non-treated cohort of £26,424, with an incremental healthcare costs increase of £5,901 per patient. The benefit cost ratio (BCR) of total government benefits and savings relative to government treatment costs (including LDV/SOF) ranged from 1.8-5.6. Treating patients early resulted in 77% less disability costs, 43% lower healthcare costs, and 33% higher tax revenue. CONCLUSION: The ability to cure Hepatitis C offers considerable fiscal benefits beyond direct medical costs and savings attributed to reduced disability costs, public allowances, and improved tax revenue. Changes in parameters, such as productivity, wage growth, and tax rates, can influence the conclusions described here.

Cost-effectiveness of extended-release methylphenidate in children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder sub-optimally treated with immediate release methylphenidate.

BACKGROUND: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a common psychiatric disorder in children and adolescents. Immediate-release methylphenidate (IR-MPH) is the medical treatment of first choice. The necessity to use several IR-MPH tablets per day and associated potential social stigma at school often leads to reduced compliance, sub-optimal treatment, and therefore economic loss. Replacement of IR-MPH with a single-dose extended release (ER-MPH) formulation may improve drug response and economic efficiency. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective of a switch from IR-MPH to ER-MPH in patients who are sub-optimally treated. METHODS: A daily Markov-cycle model covering a time-span of 10 years was developed including four different health states: (1) optimal response, (2) sub-optimal response, (3) discontinued treatment, and (4) natural remission. ER-MPH options included methylphenidate osmotic release oral system (MPH-OROS) and Equasym XL/Medikinet CR. Both direct costs and indirect costs were included in the analysis, and effects were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Univariate, multivariate as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted and the main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Switching sub-optimally treated patients from IR-MPH to MPH-OROS or Equasym XL/Medikinet CR led to per-patient cost-savings of €4200 and €5400, respectively, over a 10-year treatment span. Sensitivity analysis with plausible variations of input parameters resulted in cost-savings in the vast majority of estimations. CONCLUSIONS: This study lends economic support to switching patients with ADHD with suboptimal response to short-acting IR-MPH to long-acting ER-MPH regimens.