Restriction of Intravenous Fluid in ICU Patients with Septic Shock.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous fluids are recommended for the treatment of patients who are in septic shock, but higher fluid volumes have been associated with harm in patients who are in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: In this international, randomized trial, we assigned patients with septic shock in the ICU who had received at least 1 liter of intravenous fluid to receive restricted intravenous fluid or standard intravenous fluid therapy; patients were included if the onset of shock had been within 12 hours before screening. The primary outcome was death from any cause within 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: We enrolled 1554 patients; 770 were assigned to the restrictive-fluid group and 784 to the standard-fluid group. Primary outcome data were available for 1545 patients (99.4%). In the ICU, the restrictive-fluid group received a median of 1798 ml of intravenous fluid (interquartile range, 500 to 4366); the standard-fluid group received a median of 3811 ml (interquartile range, 1861 to 6762). At 90 days, death had occurred in 323 of 764 patients (42.3%) in the restrictive-fluid group, as compared with 329 of 781 patients (42.1%) in the standard-fluid group (adjusted absolute difference, 0.1 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.7 to 4.9; P = 0.96). In the ICU, serious adverse events occurred at least once in 221 of 751 patients (29.4%) in the restrictive-fluid group and in 238 of 772 patients (30.8%) in the standard-fluid group (adjusted absolute difference, -1.7 percentage points; 99% CI, -7.7 to 4.3). At 90 days after randomization, the numbers of days alive without life support and days alive and out of the hospital were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among adult patients with septic shock in the ICU, intravenous fluid restriction did not result in fewer deaths at 90 days than standard intravenous fluid therapy. (Funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and others; CLASSIC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03668236.).

Haloperidol for the Treatment of Delirium in ICU Patients.

BACKGROUND: Haloperidol is frequently used to treat delirium in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), but evidence of its effect is limited. METHODS: In this multicenter, blinded, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned adult patients with delirium who had been admitted to the ICU for an acute condition to receive intravenous haloperidol (2.5 mg 3 times daily plus 2.5 mg as needed up to a total maximum daily dose of 20 mg) or placebo. Haloperidol or placebo was administered in the ICU for as long as delirium continued and as needed for recurrences. The primary outcome was the number of days alive and out of the hospital at 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 1000 patients underwent randomization; 510 were assigned to the haloperidol group and 490 to the placebo group. Among these patients, 987 (98.7%) were included in the final analyses (501 in the haloperidol group and 486 in the placebo group). Primary outcome data were available for 963 patients (97.6%). At 90 days, the mean number of days alive and out of the hospital was 35.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 32.9 to 38.6) in the haloperidol group and 32.9 (95% CI, 29.9 to 35.8) in the placebo group, with an adjusted mean difference of 2.9 days (95% CI, -1.2 to 7.0) (P = 0.22). Mortality at 90 days was 36.3% in the haloperidol group and 43.3% in the placebo group (adjusted absolute difference, -6.9 percentage points [95% CI, -13.0 to -0.6]). Serious adverse reactions occurred in 11 patients in the haloperidol group and in 9 patients in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in the ICU with delirium, treatment with haloperidol did not lead to a significantly greater number of days alive and out of the hospital at 90 days than placebo. (Funded by Innovation Fund Denmark and others; AID-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03392376; EudraCT number, 2017-003829-15.).

Lower or Higher Oxygenation Targets for Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the intensive care unit (ICU) are treated with supplemental oxygen, but the benefits and harms of different oxygenation targets are unclear. We hypothesized that using a lower target for partial pressure of arterial oxygen (Pao2) would result in lower mortality than using a higher target. METHODS: In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned 2928 adult patients who had recently been admitted to the ICU (≤12 hours before randomization) and who were receiving at least 10 liters of oxygen per minute in an open system or had a fraction of inspired oxygen of at least 0.50 in a closed system to receive oxygen therapy targeting a Pao2 of either 60 mm Hg (lower-oxygenation group) or 90 mm Hg (higher-oxygenation group) for a maximum of 90 days. The primary outcome was death within 90 days. RESULTS: At 90 days, 618 of 1441 patients (42.9%) in the lower-oxygenation group and 613 of 1447 patients (42.4%) in the higher-oxygenation group had died (adjusted risk ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.11; P = 0.64). At 90 days, there was no significant between-group difference in the percentage of days that patients were alive without life support or in the percentage of days they were alive after hospital discharge. The percentages of patients who had new episodes of shock, myocardial ischemia, ischemic stroke, or intestinal ischemia were similar in the two groups (P = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS: Among adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the ICU, a lower oxygenation target did not result in lower mortality than a higher target at 90 days. (Funded by the Innovation Fund Denmark and others; HOT-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03174002.).

Real-world causal evidence for planned predictive enrichment in critical care trials: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Randomised clinical trials in critical care are prone to inconclusiveness due, in part, to undue optimism about effect sizes and suboptimal accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Although causal evidence from rich real-world critical care can help overcome these challenges by informing predictive enrichment, no overview exists. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review, systematically searching 10 general and speciality journals for reports published on or after 1 January 2018, of randomised clinical trials enrolling adult critically ill patients. We collected trial metadata on 22 variables including recruitment period, intervention type and early stopping (including reasons) as well as data on the use of causal evidence from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment. RESULTS: We screened 9020 records and included 316 unique RCTs with a total of 268,563 randomised participants. One hundred seventy-three (55%) trials tested drug interventions, 101 (32%) management strategies and 42 (13%) devices. The median duration of enrolment was 2.2 (IQR: 1.3-3.4) years, and 83% of trials randomised less than 1000 participants. Thirty-six trials (11%) were restricted to COVID-19 patients. Of the 55 (17%) trials that stopped early, 23 (42%) used predefined rules; futility, slow enrolment and safety concerns were the commonest stopping reasons. None of the included RCTs had used causal evidence from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment. CONCLUSION: Work is needed to harness the rich multiverse of critical care data and establish its utility in critical care RCTs. Such work will likely need to leverage methodology from interventional and analytical epidemiology as well as data science.

Albumin use in patients with septic shock-Post-hoc analyses of an international randomised fluid trial.

BACKGROUND: Albumin administration is suggested in patients with sepsis and septic shock who have received large volumes of crystalloids. Given lack of firm evidence, clinical practice variation may exist. To address this, we investigated if patient characteristics or trial site were associated with albumin use in septic shock. METHODS: We conducted a post-hoc study of the CLASSIC international, randomised clinical trial of fluid volumes in septic shock. Associations between selected baseline variables and trial site with albumin use during ICU stay were assessed in Cox models considering death, ICU discharge, and loss-to-follow-up as competing events. Baseline variables were first assessed individually, adjusted for treatment allocation (restrictive vs. standard IV fluid), and then adjusted for allocation and the other baseline variables. Site was assessed in a model adjusted for allocation and baseline variables. RESULTS: We analysed 1541 of 1554 patients randomised in CLASSIC (99.2%). During ICU stay, 36.3% of patients in the restrictive-fluid group and 52.6% in the standard-fluid group received albumin. Gastrointestinal focus of infection and higher doses of norepinephrine were most strongly associated with albumin use (subgroup with highest quartile of norepinephrine doses, hazard ratio (HR) 2.58, 95% CI 1.89 to 3.53). HRs for associations between site and albumin use ranged from 0.11 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.26) to 1.70 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.74); test for overall effect of site: p < .001. CONCLUSIONS: In adults with septic shock, gastrointestinal focus of infection and higher doses of norepinephrine at baseline were associated with albumin use, which also varied substantially between sites.

Long-term cognitive and pulmonary functions following a lower versus a higher oxygenation target in the HOT-ICU and HOT-COVID trials: A protocol update.

BACKGROUND: The Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) trial was a multicentre, randomised, parallel-group trial of a lower oxygenation target (arterial partial pressure of oxygen [PaO2 ] = 8 kPa) versus a higher oxygenation target (PaO2 = 12 kPa) in adult ICU patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure; the Handling Oxygenation Targets in coronavirus disease 2019 (HOT-COVID) tested the same oxygenation targets in patients with confirmed COVID-19. In this study, we aim to evaluate the long-term effects of these oxygenation targets on cognitive and pulmonary function. We hypothesise that a lower oxygenation target throughout the ICU stay may result in cognitive impairment, whereas a higher oxygenation target may result in impaired pulmonary function. METHODS: This is the updated protocol and statistical analysis plan of two pre-planned secondary outcomes, the long-term cognitive function, and long-term pulmonary function, in the HOT-ICU and HOT-COVID trials. Patients enrolled in both trials at selected Danish sites and surviving to 1 year after randomisation are eligible to participate. A Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status score and a full-body plethysmography, including diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, will be obtained. The last patient is expected to be included in the spring of 2024. CONCLUSION: This study will provide important information on the long-term effects of a lower versus a higher oxygenation target on long-term cognitive and pulmonary functions in adult ICU patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure.

Associations between enteral nutrition and outcomes in the SUP-ICU trial: Results of exploratory post hoc analyses.

BACKGROUND: Enteral nutrition may affect risks of gastrointestinal bleeding, pneumonia and mortality in critically ill patients and may also modify the effects of pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis. We undertook post hoc analyses of the stress ulcer prophylaxis in the intensive care unit trial to assess for any associations and interactions between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole. METHODS: Extended Cox models with time-varying co-variates and competing events were used to assess potential associations, adjusted for baseline severity of illness. Potential interactions between daily enteral nutrition and allocation to pantoprazole on outcomes were similarly assessed. RESULTS: Enteral nutrition was associated with lower risk of clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR]: 0.29, 95% confidence interval: [CI] 0.19-0.44, p < .001), higher risk of pneumonia (HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82, p = .003), and lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.18-0.27, p < .001). Enteral nutrition with allocation to pantoprazole was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.21-0.35, p < .001), similar to enteral nutrition with allocation to placebo (HR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.13-0.23, p < .001). Allocation to pantoprazole with no enteral nutrition had little effect on mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.63-1.09, p = .179), whilst allocation to pantoprazole and receipt of enteral nutrition was mostly compatible with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.99-1.64, p = .061). The test of interaction between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole treatment allocation for all-cause mortality was statistically significant (p = .024). CONCLUSIONS: Enteral nutrition was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia and a reduced risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. The interaction between pantoprazole and enteral nutrition suggesting an increased risk of mortality requires further study.

Restrictive versus standard IV fluid therapy in adult ICU patients with septic shock-Bayesian analyses of the CLASSIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The CLASSIC trial assessed the effects of restrictive versus standard intravenous (IV) fluid therapy in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock. This pre-planned study provides a probabilistic interpretation and evaluates heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE). METHODS: We analysed mortality, serious adverse events (SAEs), serious adverse reactions (SARs) and days alive without life-support within 90 days using Bayesian models with weakly informative priors. HTE on mortality was assessed according to five baseline variables: disease severity, vasopressor dose, lactate levels, creatinine values and IV fluid volumes given before randomisation. RESULTS: The absolute difference in mortality was 0.2%-points (95% credible interval: -5.0 to 5.4; 47% posterior probability of benefit [risk difference <0.0%-points]) with restrictive IV fluid. The posterior probabilities of benefits with restrictive IV fluid were 72% for SAEs, 52% for SARs and 61% for days alive without life-support. The posterior probabilities of no clinically important differences (absolute risk difference ≤2%-points) between the groups were 56% for mortality, 49% for SAEs, 90% for SARs and 38% for days alive without life-support. There was 97% probability of HTE for previous IV fluid volumes analysed continuously, that is, potentially relatively lower mortality of restrictive IV fluids with higher previous IV fluids. No substantial evidence of HTE was found in the other analyses. CONCLUSION: We could not rule out clinically important effects of restrictive IV fluid therapy on mortality, SAEs or days alive without life-support, but substantial effects on SARs were unlikely. IV fluids given before randomisation might interact with IV fluid strategy.

Empirical meropenem versus piperacillin/tazobactam for adult patients with sepsis (EMPRESS) trial: Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Piperacillin/tazobactam may be associated with less favourable outcomes than carbapenems in patients with severe bacterial infections, but the certainty of evidence is low. METHODS: The Empirical Meropenem versus Piperacillin/Tazobactam for Adult Patients with Sepsis (EMPRESS) trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-group, randomised, open-label, adaptive clinical trial with an integrated feasibility phase. We will randomise adult, critically ill patients with sepsis to empirical treatment with meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam for up to 30 days. The primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions within 30 days; isolation precautions due to resistant bacteria within 30 days; days alive without life support and days alive and out of hospital within 30 and 90 days; 90- and 180-day all-cause mortality and 180-day health-related quality of life. EMPRESS will use Bayesian statistical models with weak to somewhat sceptical neutral priors. Adaptive analyses will be conducted after follow-up of the primary outcome for the first 400 participants concludes and after every 300 subsequent participants, with adaptive stopping for superiority/inferiority and practical equivalence (absolute risk difference <2.5%-points) and response-adaptive randomisation. The expected sample sizes in scenarios with no, small or large differences are 5189, 5859 and 2570 participants, with maximum 14,000 participants and ≥99% probability of conclusiveness across all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: EMPRESS will compare the effects of empirical meropenem against piperacillin/tazobactam in adult, critically ill patients with sepsis. Due to the pragmatic, adaptive design with high probability of conclusiveness, the trial results are expected to directly inform clinical practice.

Furosemide versus placebo for fluid overload in intensive care patients-The randomised GODIF trial second version: Statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Fluid overload is associated with increased mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The GODIF trial aims to assess the benefits and harms of fluid removal with furosemide versus placebo in stable adult patients with moderate to severe fluid overload in the ICU. This article describes the detailed statistical analysis plan for the primary results of the second version of the GODIF trial. METHODS: The GODIF trial is an international, multi-centre, randomised, stratified, blinded, parallel-group, pragmatic clinical trial, allocating 1000 adult ICU patients with moderate to severe fluid overload 1:1 to furosemide versus placebo. The primary outcome is days alive and out of hospital within 90 days post-randomisation. With a power of 90% and an alpha level of 5%, we may reject or detect an improvement of 8%. The primary analyses of all outcomes will be performed in the intention-to-treat population. For the primary outcome, the Kryger Jensen and Lange method will be used to compare the two treatment groups adjusted for stratification variables supplemented with sensitivity analyses in the per-protocol population and with further adjustments for prognostic variables. Secondary outcomes will be analysed with multiple linear regressions, logistic regressions or the Kryger Jensen and Lange method as suitable with adjustment for stratification variables. CONCLUSION: The GODIF trial data will increase the certainty about the effects of fluid removal using furosemide in adult ICU patients with fluid overload. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: EudraCT identifier: 2019-004292-40 and ClinicalTrials.org: NCT04180397.

Effects of sceptical priors on the performance of adaptive clinical trials with binary outcomes.

It is unclear how sceptical priors impact adaptive trials. We assessed the influence of priors expressing a spectrum of scepticism on the performance of several Bayesian, multi-stage, adaptive clinical trial designs using binary outcomes under different clinical scenarios. Simulations were conducted using fixed stopping rules and stopping rules calibrated to keep type 1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed total sample sizes, event rates, event counts, probabilities of conclusiveness and selecting the best arm, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated treatment effect in the selected arms, and ideal design percentages (IDPs; which combines arm selection probabilities, power, and consequences of selecting inferior arms), with RMSEs and IDPs estimated in conclusive trials only and after selecting the control arm in inconclusive trials. Using fixed stopping rules, increasingly sceptical priors led to larger sample sizes, more events, higher IDPs in simulations ending in superiority, and lower RMSEs, lower probabilities of conclusiveness/selecting the best arm, and lower IDPs when selecting controls in inconclusive simulations. With calibrated stopping rules, the effects of increased scepticism on sample sizes and event counts were attenuated, and increased scepticism increased the probabilities of conclusiveness/selecting the best arm and IDPs when selecting controls in inconclusive simulations without substantially increasing sample sizes. Results from trial designs with gentle adaptation and non-informative priors resembled those from designs with more aggressive adaptation using weakly-to-moderately sceptical priors. In conclusion, the use of somewhat sceptical priors in adaptive trial designs with binary outcomes seems reasonable when considering multiple performance metrics simultaneously.

Effects of duration of follow-up and lag in data collection on the performance of adaptive clinical trials.

Different combined outcome-data lags (follow-up durations plus data-collection lags) may affect the performance of adaptive clinical trial designs. We assessed the influence of different outcome-data lags (0-105 days) on the performance of various multi-stage, adaptive trial designs (2/4 arms, with/without a common control, fixed/response-adaptive randomisation) with undesirable binary outcomes according to different inclusion rates (3.33/6.67/10 patients/day) under scenarios with no, small, and large differences. Simulations were conducted under a Bayesian framework, with constant stopping thresholds for superiority/inferiority calibrated to keep type-1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed multiple performance metrics, including mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, probabilities of conclusiveness, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated effect in the selected arms, and RMSEs between the analyses at the time of stopping and the final analyses including data from all randomised patients. Performance metrics generally deteriorated when the proportions of randomised patients with available data were smaller due to longer outcome-data lags or faster inclusion, that is, mean sample sizes, event counts/probabilities, and RMSEs were larger, while the probabilities of conclusiveness were lower. Performance metric impairments with outcome-data lags ≤45 days were relatively smaller compared to those occurring with ≥60 days of lag. For most metrics, the effects of different outcome-data lags and lower proportions of randomised patients with available data were larger than those of different design choices, for example, the use of fixed versus response-adaptive randomisation. Increased outcome-data lag substantially affected the performance of adaptive trial designs. Trialists should consider the effects of outcome-data lags when planning adaptive trials.

Lower vs Higher Oxygenation Target and Days Alive Without Life Support in COVID-19: The HOT-COVID Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Supplemental oxygen is ubiquitously used in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, but a lower dose may be beneficial. Objective: To assess the effects of targeting a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg vs 90 mm Hg in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia in the intensive care unit (ICU). Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter randomized clinical trial including 726 adults with COVID-19 receiving at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation in 11 ICUs in Europe from August 2020 to March 2023. The trial was prematurely stopped prior to outcome assessment due to slow enrollment. End of 90-day follow-up was June 1, 2023. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg (lower oxygenation group; n = 365) or 90 mm Hg (higher oxygenation group; n = 361) for up to 90 days in the ICU. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support (mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, or kidney replacement therapy) at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included mortality, proportion of patients with serious adverse events, and number of days alive and out of hospital, all at 90 days. Results: Of 726 randomized patients, primary outcome data were available for 697 (351 in the lower oxygenation group and 346 in the higher oxygenation group). Median age was 66 years, and 495 patients (68%) were male. At 90 days, the median number of days alive without life support was 80.0 days (IQR, 9.0-89.0 days) in the lower oxygenation group and 72.0 days (IQR, 2.0-88.0 days) in the higher oxygenation group (P = .009 by van Elteren test; supplemental bootstrapped adjusted mean difference, 5.8 days [95% CI, 0.2-11.5 days]; P = .04). Mortality at 90 days was 30.2% in the lower oxygenation group and 34.7% in the higher oxygenation group (risk ratio, 0.86 [98.6% CI, 0.66-1.13]; P = .18). There were no statistically significant differences in proportion of patients with serious adverse events or in number of days alive and out of hospital. Conclusion and Relevance: In adult ICU patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, targeting a Pao2 of 60 mm Hg resulted in more days alive without life support in 90 days than targeting a Pao2 of 90 mm Hg. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04425031.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation or death: Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early ecological studies have suggested links between air pollution and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but evidence from individual-level cohort studies is still sparse. We examined whether long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with risk of COVID-19 and who is most susceptible. METHODS: We followed 3 721 810 Danish residents aged ≥30 years on 1 March 2020 in the National COVID-19 Surveillance System until the date of first positive test (incidence), COVID-19 hospitalisation or death until 26 April 2021. We estimated residential annual mean particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) in 2019 by the Danish DEHM/UBM model, and used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 outcomes, adjusting for age, sex, individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, and population density. RESULTS: 138 742 individuals were infected, 11 270 were hospitalised and 2557 died from COVID-19 during 14 months. We detected associations of PM2.5 (per 0.53 µg·m-3) and NO2 (per 3.59 µg·m-3) with COVID-19 incidence (hazard ratio (HR) 1.10 (95% CI 1.05-1.14) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.14-1.23), respectively), hospitalisations (HR 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.17) and HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.12-1.27), respectively) and death (HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.04-1.44) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03-1.34), respectively), which were strongest in the lowest socioeconomic groups and among patients with chronic respiratory, cardiometabolic and neurodegenerative diseases. We found positive associations with BC and negative associations with O3. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to air pollution may contribute to increased risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection as well as developing severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalisation or resulting in death.

Atrial Fibrillation (AFIB) in the ICU: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes: The International AFIB-ICU Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ICU and to describe current practice in the management of AF. DESIGN: Multicenter, prospective, inception cohort study. SETTING: Forty-four ICUs in 12 countries in four geographical regions. SUBJECTS: Adult, acutely admitted ICU patients without a history of persistent/permanent AF or recent cardiac surgery were enrolled; inception periods were from October 2020 to June 2021. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We included 1,423 ICU patients and analyzed 1,415 (99.4%), among whom 221 patients had 539 episodes of AF. Most (59%) episodes were diagnosed with continuous electrocardiogram monitoring. The incidence of AF was 15.6% (95% CI, 13.8-17.6), of which newly developed AF was 13.3% (11.5-15.1). A history of arterial hypertension, paroxysmal AF, sepsis, or high disease severity at ICU admission was associated with AF. Used interventions to manage AF were fluid bolus 19% (95% CI 16-23), magnesium 16% (13-20), potassium 15% (12-19), amiodarone 51% (47-55), beta-1 selective blockers 34% (30-38), calcium channel blockers 4% (2-6), digoxin 16% (12-19), and direct current cardioversion in 4% (2-6). Patients with AF had more ischemic, thromboembolic (13.6% vs 7.9%), and severe bleeding events (5.9% vs 2.1%), and higher mortality (41.2% vs 25.2%) than those without AF. The adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio for 90-day mortality by AF was 1.38 (95% CI, 0.95-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: In ICU patients, AF occurred in one of six and was associated with different conditions. AF was associated with worse outcomes while not statistically significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the adjusted analyses. We observed variations in the diagnostic and management strategies for AF.

Early childhood adversity and body mass index in childhood and adolescence: linking registry data on adversities with school health records of 53,401 children from Copenhagen.

OBJECTIVE: We examined whether childhood adversity experienced in early childhood (0-5 years) is related to body mass index (BMI) in childhood (6-7 years) and adolescence (12-15 years). METHODS: This study combined data from the nationwide register-based DANLIFE study on childhood adversities with data on height and weight of school children in Copenhagen. Data were available for 53,401 children born in Denmark between 1980 and 1996. Children were divided into groups of early childhood adversity by applying group-based multi-trajectory modelling using their yearly count of childhood adversity in three dimensions (i.e., material deprivation, loss or threat of loss, and family dynamics) from 0-5 years. Direct and total associations between the early childhood adversity groups and BMI z-scores in childhood and adolescence were estimated using sex-stratified structural equation models. RESULTS: Five exclusive and exhaustive groups of early childhood adversity were identified, which were characterized by low adversity (51%), moderate material deprivation (30%), high material deprivation (14%), loss or threat of loss (3%) and high adversity (2%). Boys and girls exposed to moderate or high material deprivation and loss or threat of loss had a slightly higher BMI z-score, especially in adolescence, compared with those in the low adversity group, with the strongest association found for girls in the loss or threat of loss group (b (95% CI) = 0.18 (0.10, 0.26)). Additionally, boys in the high adversity group had a slightly lower BMI z-score in childhood than boys in the low adversity group (b (95% CI) = -0.12 (-0.22, -0.02)). CONCLUSIONS: Whereas associations with BMI were found for children and adolescents exposed to material deprivation, loss or threat of loss, and high adversity, the effect sizes were generally small. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, weight changes in childhood is probably not a major explanatory mechanism linking early childhood adversity with later-life morbidity.

A predictive paradigm for COVID-19 prognosis based on the longitudinal measure of biomarkers.

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging, rapidly evolving crisis, and the ability to predict prognosis for individual COVID-19 patient is important for guiding treatment. Laboratory examinations were repeatedly measured during hospitalization for COVID-19 patients, which provide the possibility for the individualized early prediction of prognosis. However, previous studies mainly focused on risk prediction based on laboratory measurements at one time point, ignoring disease progression and changes of biomarkers over time. By using historical regression trees (HTREEs), a novel machine learning method, and joint modeling technique, we modeled the longitudinal trajectories of laboratory biomarkers and made dynamically predictions on individual prognosis for 1997 COVID-19 patients. In the discovery phase, based on 358 COVID-19 patients admitted between 10 January and 18 February 2020 from Tongji Hospital, HTREE model identified a set of important variables including 14 prognostic biomarkers. With the trajectories of those biomarkers through 5-day, 10-day and 15-day, the joint model had a good performance in discriminating the survived and deceased COVID-19 patients (mean AUCs of 88.81, 84.81 and 85.62% for the discovery set). The predictive model was successfully validated in two independent datasets (mean AUCs of 87.61, 87.55 and 87.03% for validation the first dataset including 112 patients, 94.97, 95.78 and 94.63% for the second validation dataset including 1527 patients, respectively). In conclusion, our study identified important biomarkers associated with the prognosis of COVID-19 patients, characterized the time-to-event process and obtained dynamic predictions at the individual level.

Traumatic brain injury, stroke, and epilepsy: A mediation study in a Danish nationwide cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and stroke are well-known causes of acquired epilepsy. TBI is also a risk factor for stroke, and injury-induced stroke may indirectly convey a proportion of the epilepsy risk following TBI. We studied the extent to which the effect of TBI on epilepsy operated through intermediary stroke. METHODS: We analyzed a nationwide, matched, register-based cohort of adults ≥ 40 years of age whose first TBI at Danish hospitals was recorded between 2004 and 2016. A matched reference population was sampled for comparison. During follow-up, we recorded all acute strokes. Cox proportional hazard models and the difference method were used to estimate the total and controlled direct effect hazard ratios (HRs) of TBI on epilepsy and the indirect effect HRs of TBI on epilepsy operating through stroke, and to calculate the proportion eliminated. Analyses were stratified by severity of, age at, and time since TBI. RESULTS: We followed 57 900 persons with TBI (48.6% males) from median age 61 years (interquartile range = 51-75), and 561 977 age- and sex-matched references. The total effect of TBI on epilepsy was higher for persons aged 40-59 years (HR = 5.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.65-5.72) than for persons aged ≥ 60 years (HR = 4.55, 95% CI = 4.19-4.95). In contrast, the indirect effect of TBI mediated by stroke was lower for persons aged 40-59 years (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.02-1.03) than for persons aged ≥ 60 years (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.04-1.06). We estimated 2.3% and 5.6% of the risk of epilepsy after TBI to operate through stroke for these age groups, respectively. SIGNIFICANCE: Less than 6% of the risk of epilepsy following TBI operated through intermediary stroke. However, this mechanism seems to play an increasing role with age and for late onset epilepsies. This warrants further investigation.

Coronary and extra-coronary artery calcium scores as predictors of cardiovascular events and mortality in chronic kidney disease stages 1-5: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vascular calcification is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, since there is a lack of studies examining several arterial regions at a time, we aimed to evaluate the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality according to calcium scores in five major arterial sites. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 580 patients from the Copenhagen CKD Cohort. Multidetector computed tomography of the coronary and carotid arteries, the thoracic aorta, the abdominal aorta and the iliac arteries was used to determine vascular calcification at baseline. Calcium scores were divided into categories: 0, 1-100, 101-400 and >400. RESULTS: During the follow-up period of 4.1 years a total of 59 cardiovascular events and 64 all-cause deaths occurred. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia and smoking, only the coronary and carotid arteries, and the thoracic aorta were independent predictors of the designated endpoints. When examining the potential of calcification in the five arterial sites for predicting MACE, the difference in C-statistic was also most pronounced in these three sites, at 0.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16%-0.26%, P < .001], 0.26 (95% CI 0.22%-0.3%, P < .001) and 0.20 (95% CI 0.16%-0.24%, P < .001), respectively. This trend also applied to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The overall results, including data on specificity, suggest that calcium scores of the coronary and carotid arteries have the most potential for identifying patients with CKD at high cardiovascular risk and for evaluating new therapies.

Marginal structural models with monotonicity constraints: A case study in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients.

This paper deals with estimating the probability of a binary counterfactual outcome as a function of a continuous covariate under monotonicity constraints. We are motivated by the study of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients which aims to estimate the counterfactual 30-day survival probability if either all patients had received, or if none of the patients had received bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), as a function of the ambulance response time. It is natural to assume that the counterfactual 30-day survival probability cannot increase with increasing ambulance response time. We model the monotone relationship with a marginal structural model and B-splines. We then derive an estimating equation for the parameters of interest which however further relies on an auxiliary regression model for the observed 30-day survival probabilities. The predictions of the observed 30-day survival probabilities are used as pseudo-values for the unobserved counterfactual 30-day survival status. The methods are illustrated and contrasted with an unconstrained modeling approach in large-scale Danish registry data.