Physician incomes and work patterns across specialties: 1975 and 1983-84.

Survey data on physician income and work patterns are examined and compared for 1975 and 1983-84. Specialty, hours and weeks worked, location, practice size, and incorporation status are examined. Dollar figures for 1975 are adjusted to show real-dollar income changes over the period. Incomes for surgical specialties were highest. In real-dollar terms, nonsurgical specialties exhibited sluggish growth or even fell. Urban-rural differences in real income and hours worked narrowed over time. Incorporation and group affiliation were positively related to income levels in both surveys, but number of hours worked was not. Limitations and interpretation of these data are discussed last.

The future of Medicare policy reform: priorities for research and demonstrations.

The Medicare program, the largest health insurance program in the United States, is clearly at a crossroads as it enters its third decade. Historical increases in health care expenditures, plus a changing political and economic landscape, have set the groundwork for policy reform. Basic reform strategies, most notably reimbursement arrangements, are discussed. In 1983, Congress enacted the prospective payment system (PPS), which initiated a fundamental change in the way hospitals are paid for care delivered to Medicare beneficiaries. But PPS is only a steppingstone to broader reforms such as capitation and evolving organizational models in the delivery of care. Policymakers' considerations of coverage of services, such as long-term care and organ transplants, are also discussed. Within the context of these policy reforms, the authors shape an agenda for research and demonstrations--the blueprint for taking us from "here to there."

Developing payment refinements and reforms under Medicare for excluded hospitals.

Four classes of specialty hospitals (children's, psychiatric, rehabilitation, and long-term) and two types of distinct-part units in general hospitals (psychiatric and rehabilitation) have been excluded from the Medicare hospital prospective payment system since it was enacted by Congress in 1983. The number of these facilities and the Medicare dollars expended have more than doubled in less than 5 years, prompting renewed policy interest in developing payment reform. In this context, the substantial research and policy development efforts to refine case-mix classification and payment policies for these facilities are reviewed and examined. Findings are discussed relative to possible legislative and regulatory directions.

Exploratory research synthesis--methodological considerations for addressing limitations in data quality.

Exploratory meta-analysis or research synthesis has been advocated as a way of developing important hypotheses for further study. An exploratory research synthesis was conducted on the carotid endarterectomy (CE) literature to illustrate this method. The CE scientific literature is similar to that of many other new medical interventions because it contains numerous limitations to data quality. Exploratory research synthesis of such literature necessitates a number of methodological and statistical considerations to address these limitations, including the problems of missing data, appropriate unit of analysis, nonnormal distribution of outcomes, and lack of controlled studies. Strengths and limitations of the exploratory research synthesis approach are discussed within the context of public policy decisions for assessing medical technologies.

The future of Medicare policy reform.

The Medicare program, the largest health insurance program in the United States, is clearly at a crossroads as it enters its third decade. Historical increases in health care expenditures, plus a changing political and economic landscape, have set the groundwork for policy reform. Two basic reform strategies--reimbursement arrangements and program funding mechanisms--are discussed. In 1983, Congress enacted the Prospective Payment System (PPS) which initiated a fundamental change in the way hospitals are paid for care delivered to Medicare beneficiaries. But the PPS is only a stepping-stone to broader reforms such as capitation. In addition, new methods of program funding may be necessary, especially in light of policymakers' considerations of coverage of services such as long-term care and organ transplants.

Consumer out-of-pocket spending for pharmaceuticals in Kazakhstan: implications for sectoral reform.

What do consumers pay for pharmaceuticals in a transition economy, and who is hit hardest? Kazakhstan is in the midst of emerging from a Soviet Union state to a market economy. It has seen a significant dip in Gross Domestic Product and available revenues for health as a result. New sources of revenues, such as out-of-pocket payments, both formal and informal, have become widespread. In this paper we use the results of a 1996 Living Standards survey jointly sponsored by the World Bank and the Kazakhstan Government to examine patterns of prescribed pharmaceutical spending. We use a two-part regression model that is utilized to adjust for the skewness of non-spenders and heavy utilizers. Results suggest that upper-income groups spend more in absolute terms, but low-income groups pay a higher share of their income for pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceutical expenditure is positively related to poor health status, chronic illness and rural area residence. Our estimates suggest that on average people in rural areas spend 16% more than people in urban areas. The analysis shows that certain types of illnesses impose significant out-of-pocket burden for consumers - gynaecologic as well as intestinal and cardiac. The findings can be used for developing and designing a new 10-year World Bank-financed programme for restructuring the health sector. They also suggest the need for prioritizing rural care, as well as covering pharmaceuticals for specific types of care interventions and certain demographic groups.

Understanding volume: a Medicare primer.

Volume, rather than real fee increases, has been the driving force behind increasing physicians' costs throughout the 1970s and the 1980s, these researchers from the Health Care Financing Administration say. But where has it been growing?

Carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic patients. Assessing results of a quantitative synthesis.

Carotid endarterectomy (CE) surgery for asymptomatic patients remains controversial despite hundreds of published studies and recent randomized trials. Safety and efficacy are assessed using a quantitative synthesis method derived from meta-analysis and a "critical multiplist" inference approach. In addition, multivariate analyses reveal that use of a surgical shunt could further improve CE outcomes. Methods are examined for both their "confirmatory" and "exploratory" value.

Consensus among experts and research synthesis. A comparison of methods.

A comparison of two assessment methods, consensus among experts and research synthesis of the scientific literature, was performed using a surgical procedure, carotid endarterectomy (CE), as an example. These two methods have been widely advocated as being scientifically valid. While the comparison revealed a number of areas of general agreement, important differences between the two methods emerged. For example, 30-day mortality for asymptomatic patients was considered an effective outcome (ranked first) by the synthesis, but only "equivocal" (ranked third) of six major indicators reported by the consensus method. The synthesis results are also consistent with other literature reviews as well as with recent large-scale randomized trial results. A number of factors that could account for differences between the two methods were examined. Overall, use of consensus panels may be appropriate early in the development of an intervention where the evidence is sparse, while quantitative research synthesis is preferable when a number of high-quality studies have been performed.