Moderating effects of past wildfire on reburn severity depend on climate and initial severity in Western US forests.

Rising global fire activity is increasing the prevalence of repeated short-interval burning (reburning) in forests worldwide. In forests that historically experienced frequent-fire regimes, high-severity fire exacerbates the severity of subsequent fires by increasing prevalence of shrubs and/or by creating drier understory conditions. Low- to moderate-severity fire, in contrast, can moderate future fire behavior by reducing fuel loads. The extent to which previous fires moderate future fire severity will powerfully affect fire-prone forest ecosystem trajectories over the next century. Further, knowing where and when a wildfire may act as a landscape-scale fuel treatment can help direct pre- and post-fire management efforts. We leverage satellite imagery and fire progression mapping to model reburn dynamics within forests that initially burned at low/moderate severity in 726 unique fire pair events over a 36-year period across four large fire-prone Western US ecoregions. We ask (1) how strong are the moderating effects of low- to moderate-severity fire on future fire severity, (2) how long do moderating effects last, and (3) how does the time between fires (a proxy for fuel accumulation) interact with initial fire severity, day-of-burning weather conditions, and climate to influence reburn severity. Short-interval reburns primarily occurred in dry- and moist-mixed conifer forests with historically frequent-fire regimes. Previous fire moderated reburn severity in all ecoregions with the strongest effects occurring in the California Coast and Western Mountains and the average duration of moderating effects ranging from 13 years in the Western Mountains to >36 years in the California Coast. The strength and duration of moderating effects depended on climate and initial fire severity in some regions, reflecting differences in post-fire fuel accumulation. In the California Coast, moderating effects lasted longer in cooler and wetter forests. In the Western Mountains, moderating effects were stronger and longer lasting in forests that initially burned at higher severity. Moderating effects were largely robust to fire weather, suggesting that previous fire can mediate future fire severity even under extreme conditions. Our findings demonstrate that low- to moderate-severity fire buffers future fire severity in historically frequent-fire forests, underlining the importance of wildfire as a restoration tool for adapting to global change.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios.

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Wildfire facilitates upslope advance in a shade-intolerant but not a shade-tolerant conifer.

Wildfires may facilitate climate tracking of forest species moving upslope or north in latitude. For subalpine tree species, for which higher elevation habitat is limited, accelerated replacement by lower elevation montane tree species following fire may hasten extinction risk. We used a dataset of postfire tree regeneration spanning a broad geographic range to ask whether the fire facilitated upslope movement of montane tree species at the montane-to-subalpine ecotone. We sampled tree seedling occurrence in 248 plots across a fire severity gradient (unburned to >90% basal area mortality) and spanning ~500 km of latitude in Mediterranean-type subalpine forest in California, USA. We used logistic regression to quantify differences in postfire regeneration between resident subalpine species and the seedling-only range (interpreted as climate-induced range extension) of montane species. We tested our assumption of increasing climatic suitability for montane species in subalpine forest using the predicted difference in habitat suitability at study plots between 1990 and 2030. We found that postfire regeneration of resident subalpine species was uncorrelated or weakly positively correlated with fire severity. Regeneration of montane species, however, was roughly four times greater in unburned relative to burned subalpine forest. Although our overall results contrast with theoretical predictions of disturbance-facilitated range shifts, we found opposing postfire regeneration responses for montane species with distinct regeneration niches. Recruitment of shade-tolerant red fir declined with fire severity and recruitment of shade-intolerant Jeffrey pine increased with fire severity. Predicted climatic suitability increased by 5% for red fir and 34% for Jeffrey pine. Differing postfire responses in newly climatically available habitats indicate that wildfire disturbance may only facilitate range extensions for species whose preferred regeneration conditions align with increased light and/or other postfire landscape characteristics.

Climate explains population divergence in drought-induced plasticity of functional traits and gene expression in a South African Protea.

Long-term environmental variation often drives local adaptation and leads to trait differentiation across populations. Additionally, when traits change in an environment-dependent way through phenotypic plasticity, the genetic variation underlying plasticity will also be under selection. These processes could create a landscape of differentiation across populations in traits and their plasticity. Here, we performed a dry-down experiment under controlled conditions to measure responses in seedlings of a shrub species from the Cape Floristic Region, the common sugarbush (Protea repens). We measured morphological and physiological traits, and sequenced whole transcriptomes of leaf tissues from eight populations that represent both the climatic and the geographical distribution of this species. We found that there is substantial variation in how populations respond to drought, but we also observed common patterns such as reduced leaf size and leaf thickness, and up-regulation of stress-related and down-regulation of growth-related gene groups. Both high environmental heterogeneity and milder source site climates were associated with higher plasticity in various traits and co-expression gene networks. Associations between traits, trait plasticity, gene networks and the source site climate suggest that temperature may play a greater role in shaping these patterns when compared to precipitation, in line with recent changes in the region due to climate change. We also found that traits respond to climatic variation in an environment-dependent manner: some associations between traits and climate were apparent only under certain growing conditions. Together, our results uncover common responses of P. repens populations to drought, and climatic drivers of population differentiation in functional traits, gene expression and their plasticity.

Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests.

A 'resilient' forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine-scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long-lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire-induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.

Post-fire forest regeneration shows limited climate tracking and potential for drought-induced type conversion.

Disturbance such as wildfire may create opportunities for plant communities to reorganize in response to climate change. The interaction between climate change and disturbance may be particularly important in forests, where many of the foundational plant species (trees) are long-lived and where poor initial tree establishment can result in conversion to shrub- or graminoid-dominated systems. The response of post-disturbance vegetation establishment to post-disturbance weather conditions, particularly to extreme weather, could therefore provide useful information about how forest communities will respond to climate change. We examined the effect of post-fire weather conditions on post-fire tree, shrub, and graminoid recruitment in fire-adapted forests in northern California, USA, by surveying regenerating vegetation in severely burned areas 4-5 yr after 14 different wildfires that burned between 2004 and 2012. This time period (2004-2016) encompassed a wide range of post-fire weather conditions, including a period of extreme drought. For the most common tree species, we observed little evidence of disturbance-mediated community reorganization or range shifts but instead either (1) low sensitivity of recruitment to post-fire weather or (2) weak but widespread decreases in recruitment under unusually dry post-fire conditions, depending on the species. The occurrence of a single strong drought year following fire was more important than a series of moderately dry years in explaining tree recruitment declines. Overall, however, post-fire tree recruitment patterns were explained more strongly by long-term climate and topography and local adult tree species abundance than by post-fire weather conditions. This observation suggests that surviving adult trees can contribute to a "biological inertia" that restricts the extent to which tree community composition will track changes in climate through post-disturbance recruitment. In contrast to our observations in trees, we observed substantial increases in shrub and graminoid establishment under post-fire drought, suggesting that shifts in dominance between functional groups may become more likely in a future with more frequent and intense drought.

Towards connecting biodiversity and geodiversity across scales with satellite remote sensing.

ISSUE: Geodiversity (i.e., the variation in Earth's abiotic processes and features) has strong effects on biodiversity patterns. However, major gaps remain in our understanding of how relationships between biodiversity and geodiversity vary over space and time. Biodiversity data are globally sparse and concentrated in particular regions. In contrast, many forms of geodiversity can be measured continuously across the globe with satellite remote sensing. Satellite remote sensing directly measures environmental variables with grain sizes as small as tens of metres and can therefore elucidate biodiversity-geodiversity relationships across scales. EVIDENCE: We show how one important geodiversity variable, elevation, relates to alpha, beta and gamma taxonomic diversity of trees across spatial scales. We use elevation from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and c. 16,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots to quantify spatial scaling relationships between biodiversity and geodiversity with generalized linear models (for alpha and gamma diversity) and beta regression (for beta diversity) across five spatial grains ranging from 5 to 100 km. We illustrate different relationships depending on the form of diversity; beta and gamma diversity show the strongest relationship with variation in elevation. CONCLUSION: With the onset of climate change, it is more important than ever to examine geodiversity for its potential to foster biodiversity. Widely available satellite remotely sensed geodiversity data offer an important and expanding suite of measurements for understanding and predicting changes in different forms of biodiversity across scales. Interdisciplinary research teams spanning biodiversity, geoscience and remote sensing are well poised to advance understanding of biodiversity-geodiversity relationships across scales and guide the conservation of nature.

Seed banks of native forbs, but not exotic grasses, increase during extreme drought.

Extreme droughts such as the one that affected California in 2012-2015 have been linked to severe ecological consequences in perennial-dominated communities such as forests. In annual communities, drought impacts are difficult to assess because many species persist through facultative multiyear seed dormancy, which leads to the development of seed banks. Impacts of extreme drought on the abundance and composition of the seed banks of whole communities are little known. In 80 heterogeneous grassland plots where cover is dominated by ~15 species of exotic annual grasses and diversity is dominated by ~70 species of native annual forbs, we grew out seeds from soil cores collected early in the California drought (2012) and later in the multiyear drought (2014), and analyzed drought-associated changes in the seed bank. Over the course of the study we identified more than 22,000 seedlings to species. We found that seeds of exotic annual grasses declined sharply in abundance during the drought while seeds of native annual forbs increased, a pattern that resembled but was even stronger than the changes in aboveground cover of these groups. Consistent with the expectation that low specific leaf area (SLA) is an indicator of drought tolerance, we found that the community-weighted mean SLA of annual forbs declined both in the seed bank and in the aboveground community, as low-SLA forbs increased disproportionately. In this system, seed dormancy reinforces the indirect benefits of extreme drought to the native forb community.

Climate-driven diversity change in annual grasslands: Drought plus deluge does not equal normal.

Climate forecasts agree that increased variability and extremes will tend to reduce the availability of water in many terrestrial ecosystems. Increasingly severe droughts may be exacerbated both by warmer temperatures and by the relative unavailability of water that arrives in more sporadic and intense rainfall events. Using long-term data and an experimental water manipulation, we examined the resilience of a heterogeneous annual grassland community to a prolonged series of dry winters that led to a decline in plant species richness (2000-2014), followed by a near-record wet winter (2016-2017), a climatic sequence that broadly resembles the predicted future in its high variability. In our 80, 5-m2 observational plots, species richness did not recover in response to the wet winter, and the positive relationship of richness to annual winter rainfall thus showed a significant weakening trend over the 18-year time period. In experiments on 100, 1-m2 plots, wintertime water supplementation increased and drought shelters decreased the seedling survival and final individual biomass of native annual forbs, the main functional group contributing to the observed long-term decline in richness. Water supplementation also increased the total cover of native annual forbs, but only increased richness within nested subplots to which seeds were also added. We conclude that prolonged dry winters, by increasing seedling mortality and reducing growth of native forbs, may have diminished the seedbank and thus the recovery potential of diversity in this community. However, the wet winter and the watering treatment did cause recovery of the community mean values of a key functional trait (specific leaf area, an indicator of drought intolerance), suggesting that some aggregate community properties may be stabilized by functional redundancy among species.

Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests.

In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin subalpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine-dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above-treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Although limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully "leap-frogging" over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early-stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal and establishment may result in future communities with very different specific composition.

Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa.

Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080-2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally.

Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought.

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km2 , rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.

Transcriptome sequencing reveals population differentiation in gene expression linked to functional traits and environmental gradients in the South African shrub Protea repens.

Understanding the environmental and genetic mechanisms underlying locally adaptive trait variation across the ranges of species is a major focus of evolutionary biology. Combining transcriptome sequencing with common garden experiments on populations spanning geographical and environmental gradients holds promise for identifying such mechanisms. The South African shrub Protea repens displays diverse phenotypes in the wild along drought and temperature gradients. We grew plants from seeds collected at 19 populations spanning this species' range, and sequenced the transcriptomes of these plants to reveal gene pathways associated with adaptive trait variation. We related expression in co-expressed gene networks to trait phenotypes measured in the common garden and to source population climate. We found that expression in gene networks correlated with source-population environment and with plant traits. In particular, the activity of gene networks enriched for growth related pathways correlated strongly with source site minimum winter temperature and with leaf size, stem diameter and height in the garden. Other gene networks with enrichments for photosynthesis related genes showed associations with precipitation. Our results strongly suggest that this species displays population-level differences in gene expression that have been shaped by source population site climate, and that are reflected in trait variation along environmental gradients.

Snowpack, fire, and forest disturbance: interactions affect montane invasions by non-native shrubs.

Montane regions worldwide have experienced relatively low plant invasion rates, a trend attributed to increased climatic severity, low rates of disturbance, and reduced propagule pressure relative to lowlands. Manipulative experiments at elevations above the invasive range of non-native species can clarify the relative contributions of these mechanisms to montane invasion resistance, yet such experiments are rare. Furthermore, global climate change and land use changes are expected to cause decreases in snowpack and increases in disturbance by fire and forest thinning in montane forests. We examined the importance of these factors in limiting montane invasions using a field transplant experiment above the invasive range of two non-native lowland shrubs, Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) and Spanish broom (Spartium junceum), in the rain-snow transition zone of the Sierra Nevada of California. We tested the effects of canopy closure, prescribed fire, and winter snow depth on demographic transitions of each species. Establishment of both species was most likely at intermediate levels of canopy disturbance, but at this intermediate canopy level, snow depth had negative effects on winter survival of seedlings. We used matrix population models to show that an 86% reduction in winter snowfall would cause a 2.8-fold increase in population growth rates in Scotch broom and a 3.5-fold increase in Spanish broom. Fall prescribed fire increased germination rates, but decreased overall population growth rates by reducing plant survival. However, at longer fire return intervals, population recovery between fires is likely to keep growth rates high, especially under low snowpack conditions. Many treatment combinations had positive growth rates despite being above the current invasive range, indicating that propagule pressure, disturbance, and climate can all strongly affect plant invasions in montane regions. We conclude that projected reductions in winter snowpack and increases in forest disturbance are likely to increase the risk of invasion from lower elevations.

Quantifying how fine-grained environmental heterogeneity and genetic variation affect demography in an annual plant population.

The ability of plant species to colonize new habitats and persist in changing environments depends on their ability to respond plastically to environmental variation and on the presence of genetic variation, thus allowing adaptation to new conditions. For invasive species in particular, the relationship between phenotypic trait expression, demography, and the quantitative genetic variation that is available to respond to selection are likely to be important determinants of the successful establishment and persistence of populations. However, the magnitude and sources of individual demographic variation in exotic plant populations remain poorly understood. How important is plasticity versus adaptability in populations of invasive species? Among environmental factors, is temperature, soil nutrients, or competition most influential, and at what scales and life stages do they affect the plants? To investigate these questions we planted seeds of the exotic annual plant Erodium brachycarpum into typical pasture habitat in a spatially nested design. Seeds were drawn from 30 inbred lines to enable quantification of genetic effects. Despite a positive population growth rate, a few plants (0.1 %) produced >50 % of the seeds, suggesting a low effective population size. Emergence and early growth varied by genotype, but as in previous studies on native plants, environmental effects greatly exceeded genetic effects, and survival was unrelated to genotype. Environmental influences shifted from microscale soil compaction and litter depth at emergence through to larger-scale soil nutrient gradients during growth and to competition during later survival and seed production. Temperature had no effect. Most demographic rates were positively correlated, but emergence was negatively correlated with other rates.

Mechanical reproductive isolation facilitates parallel speciation in western North American scincid lizards.

Mechanical reproductive barriers have been dismissed as a major driver of animal speciation, yet the extent to which such barriers cause reproductive isolation in most animal groups is largely unknown and rarely tested. In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian modeling of mate compatibility experiments to show that body size divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus complex contributes to reproductive isolation in at least three ways: males preferably court females that are more similar in size, females reject males that are highly divergent in size, and the size difference of a male and female in copula constrains the ability to align the genitalia for intromission. We used a predictive model to estimate the contributions of behavioral and mechanical barriers to reproductive isolation between populations with differing degrees of size divergence. This model shows that the mechanical barrier is more important than behavioral barriers at small and intermediate degrees of size divergence, suggesting that it acts earlier during speciation when body morphology is more similar between diverging lineages. Given that correlated divergence in size and ecology is common in animals, similar constraints imposed by the geometry of the mating posture may apply to a variety of major animal lineages and merit further attention in speciation research.

Can entropy maximization use functional traits to explain species abundances? A comprehensive evaluation.

Entropy maximization (EM) is a method that can link functional traits and community composition by predicting relative abundances of each species in a community using limited trait information. We developed a complementary suite of tests to examine the strengths and limitations of EM and the community-aggregated traits (CATs; i.e., weighted averages) on which it depends that can be applied to virtually any plant community data set. We show that suites of CATs can be used to differentiate communities and that EM can address the classic problem of characterizing ecological niches by quantifying constraints (CATs) on complex trait relationships in local communities. EM outperformed null models and comparable regression models in communities with different levels of dominance, diversity, and trait similarity. EM predicted well the abundance of the dominant species that drive community-level traits; it typically identified rarer species as such, although it struggled to predict the abundances of the rarest species in some cases. Predictions were sensitive to choice of traits, were substantially improved by using informative priors based on null models, and were robust to variation in trait measurement due to intraspecific variability or measurement error. We demonstrate how similarity in species' traits confounds predictions and provide guidelines for applying EM.

Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality.

The recent Californian hot drought (2012-2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km2, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

Invasive species interact with climatic variability to reduce success of natives.

Plants have evolved resource-conservative and resource-acquisitive strategies to deal with variability in rainfall, but interactions with dominant invasive species may undermine these adaptations. To investigate the relative effect of invaders on species with these two strategies, we manipulated rainfall and invasive grass presence and measured demographic rates in three resource-acquisitive and three resource-conservative native annual forbs. We found that invasive grasses were harmful to all of the target species, but especially the resource-acquisitive ones, and that these effects were stronger under experimental drought. Invasive grass presence under drought lowered per capita population growth rates of acquisitive natives through increased mortality and decreased seed set. While invasive grasses also decreased per capita growth rates of resource-conservative natives, they did so by increasing mortality under experimental watering and by limiting the production of seed under experimental drought. Invasive species can thus interact with climatic fluctuations to make bad years worse for resource-acquisitive natives and good years less good for resource-conservative natives, and they may generally tend to undermine the acquisitive strategy more than the conservative one.