No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation.

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Mapping an alien invasive shrub within conservation corridors using super-resolution satellite imagery.

Alien invasive plant species are one of the main drivers of global biodiversity loss. Methods for monitoring the spread of alien invasive plants are needed to improve management and mitigate impact on local biodiversity. Recent advances in deep learning and image fusion holds great potential for mapping and managing alien invasive plants. One such method is super-resolution image reconstruction, where a neural network learns to downscale images from coarse to fine resolution. Within the commercial timber production landscape of KwaZulu-Natal, endangered grassland corridors are threatened by American bramble invasion, impacting plants, birds, arthropods, and soil restoration. Here we aim to improve our understanding of bramble invasion dynamics through using super-resolved satellite mosaics. Bramble was classified with very high accuracies (85%) from the super-resolved satellite mosaic, compared to other conventional satellite imagery with different spectral and spatial resolutions. Using landscape analyses, we identified plantation tree harvesting and prescribed burning to be major drivers increasing bramble cover within the landscape. Bramble cover was highest one year following plantation tree harvesting. Continuous prescribed burning positively influenced bramble. Bramble cover was also high close to streams, and under future invasion projections, bramble will severely impact Ensifera species alongside low priority grasshopper species habitat. Results also indicate that bramble has a significant negative impact on intermediate priority grasshoppers and plant species richness. For controlling bramble invasion within commercial timber production landscapes, we recommend the adoption rotational harvesting, as harvesting entire plantation blocks throughout the landscape will dramatically increase invasion potential of bramble. Current bramble removal programmes should prioritize riparian areas. Special attention is needed to control bramble one year after timber harvesting, as this is when bramble cover is highest. We show the benefits of using super-resolved mosaics to gain new insights into alien invasive species dynamics, while further development of this technique will aid in managing invasive alien plant species at local scales.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech.

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Harmonised statistics and maps of forest biomass and increment in Europe.

Forest biomass is an essential resource in relation to the green transition and its assessment is key for the sustainable management of forest resources. Here, we present a forest biomass dataset for Europe based on the best available inventory and satellite data, with a higher level of harmonisation and spatial resolution than other existing data. This database provides statistics and maps of the forest area, biomass stock and their share available for wood supply in the year 2020, and statistics on gross and net volume increment in 2010-2020, for 38 European countries. The statistics of most countries are available at a sub-national scale and are derived from National Forest Inventory data, harmonised using common reference definitions and estimation methodology, and updated to a common year using a modelling approach. For those counties without harmonised statistics, data were derived from the State of Europe's Forest 2020 Report at the national scale. The maps are coherent with the statistics and depict the spatial distribution of the forest variables at 100 m resolution.

Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth.

The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.

Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests.

The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.

Reverse and conventional chemical ecology approaches for the development of oviposition attractants for Culex mosquitoes.

Synthetic mosquito oviposition attractants are sorely needed for surveillance and control programs for Culex species, which are major vectors of pathogens causing various human diseases, including filariasis, encephalitis, and West Nile encephalomyelitis. We employed novel and conventional chemical ecology approaches to identify potential attractants, which were demonstrated in field tests to be effective for monitoring populations of Cx. p. quinquefasciatus in human dwellings. Immunohistochemistry studies showed that an odorant-binding protein from this species, CquiOBP1, is expressed in trichoid sensilla on the antennae, including short, sharp-tipped trichoid sensilla type, which house an olfactory receptor neuron sensitive to a previously identified mosquito oviposition pheromone (MOP), 6-acetoxy-5-hexadecanolide. CquiOBP1 exists in monomeric and dimeric forms. Monomeric CquiOBP1 bound MOP in a pH-dependent manner, with a change in secondary structure apparently related to the loss of binding at low pH. The pheromone antipode showed higher affinity than the natural stereoisomer. By using both CquiOBP1 as a molecular target in binding assays and gas chromatography-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD), we identified nonanal, trimethylamine (TMA), and skatole as test compounds. Extensive field evaluations in Recife, Brazil, a region with high populations of Cx. p. quinquefasciatus, showed that a combination of TMA (0.9 microg/l) and nonanal (0.15 ng/microl) is equivalent in attraction to the currently used infusion-based lure, and superior in that the offensive smell of infusions was eliminated in the newly developed synthetic mixture.