Characteristics of heterosexually-acquired compared to homosexually-acquired HIV and implications for clinical practice: results from the Australian HIV Observational Database.

Heterosexuals living with HIV report feeling additional HIV stigma compared to homosexual men, which may affect clinical outcomes. Yet, beyond routinely collected surveillance data, little is known about the characteristics of individuals who acquire HIV heterosexually and clinical outcomes by mode of sexual acquisition have not been directly compared. Using data from the Australian HIV Observational Database, we compared clinical characteristics of those with heterosexually-acquired (Het-HIV) to homosexually-acquired HIV (Hom-HIV) to investigate any differences and their implications for clinical management. 513 Het-HIV and 1467 Hom-HIV patients were included and contributed 3,127 and 9,457 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Compared with Hom-HIV, Het-HIV were more often born outside Australia (62.5% vs 39.9%, p<0.001), less likely to have Hepatitis C (4.8% vs 7.8%, p=0.029) and had lower median CD4 counts at diagnosis (292 vs 450 cells/µL, p<0.001) and cART initiation (270 vs 340 cells/µL, p<0.001). Despite these lower CD4 counts, there were no significant differences between groups for time to the major clinical endpoints of cART initiation, viral suppression, virological failure or all-cause mortality. Het-HIV had a lower risk of loss-to-follow-up than Hom-HIV (aHR 0.78; 95% CI 0.64-0.95). Further studies examining factors associated with, and interventions to inform retention in care are required.

'Breast Cosmesis After Breast-Conserving Therapy' Who is the Judge, Patient or Surgeon?

INTRODUCTION: More than 80% of newly diagnosed breast cancers are managed with breast-conserving therapy (BCT). Preservation of cosmetically acceptable breasts is an inherent aim of all breast-conserving efforts-this can, however, be difficult to assess objectively. Compounding this is the difference in perception of breast cosmesis between patients and surgeons. This study compares the concordance of a new subscale-based cosmetic score (TCS) with the patient's perception. METHOD: Eastern Health Breast and Cancer Centre conducted this study on patients who had completed their BCT and radiotherapy. Participation was voluntary and involved permitting an assessor (breast surgery fellow or consultant) to grade cosmetic outcomes to generate a Total Cosmesis Score (TCS). The patients blinded to this assessment were then asked to complete the postoperative segment of the BCT module of the Breast-Q questionnaire. TCS from surgeon assessment was compared against patient assessment (questions BQ1i and BQ1k specifically). Cohen's kappa was calculated to define the strength of the inter-rater agreement. RESULTS: One hundred twelve patients with a mean age of 59 (range 27-89) participated in the study. TCS was low in 26% and high in 74% of participants. 76% and 69% of participants were satisfied when answering Breast-Q questions 'How your lumpectomy breast looks?' and 'How you look in the mirror unclothed?' respectively (Cohen's k = 0.464, 95% CI 0.337-0.591, p < 0.01). The agreement between the TCS and the patient assessment was poor (Cohen's k = 0.172, 95% CI - 0.020-2.093, p = 0.067). CONCLUSION: Cosmetic outcomes scored using TCS by surgeons do not match patient's own assessment of the cosmetic result.

Polygenic risk score as a determinant of risk of keratinocyte cancer in an Australian population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Keratinocyte cancer (KC) risk is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Genetic risk can be quantified by polygenic risk scores (PRS), which sum the combined effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). OBJECTIVES: Our objective here was to evaluate the contribution of the summed genetic score to predict the KC risk in the phenotypically well-characterized Nambour population. METHODS: We used PLINK v1.90 to calculate PRS for 432 cases, 566 controls, using 78 genome-wide independent SNPs that are associated with KC risk. We assessed the association between PRS and KC using logistic regression, stratifying the cohort into three risk groups (high 20%, intermediate 60%, low 20%). RESULTS: The fully adjusted model including traditional risk factors (phenotypic and sun exposure-related), showed a significant 50% increase in odds of KC per standard deviation of PRS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-1.76, P = 5.75 × 10-8 ). Those in the top 20% PRS had over three times the risk of KC of those in the lowest 20% (OR = 3.45; 95% CI = 2.18-5.50, P = 1.5 × 10-7 ) and higher absolute risk of KC per 100 person-years of 2.96 compared with 1.34. Area under the ROC curve increased from 0.72 to 0.74 on adding PRS to the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that PRS can enhance the prediction of KC above traditional risk factors.

Virological failure and HIV drug resistance among adults living with HIV on second-line antiretroviral therapy in the Asia-Pacific.

OBJECTIVES: To assess second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) virological failure and HIV drug resistance-associated mutations (RAMs), in support of third-line regimen planning in Asia. METHODS: Adults > 18 years of age on second-line ART for ≥ 6 months were eligible. Cross-sectional data on HIV viral load (VL) and genotypic resistance testing were collected or testing was conducted between July 2015 and May 2017 at 12 Asia-Pacific sites. Virological failure (VF) was defined as VL > 1000 copies/mL with a second VL > 1000 copies/mL within 3-6 months. FASTA files were submitted to Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database and RAMs were compared against the IAS-USA 2019 mutations list. VF risk factors were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 1378 patients, 74% were male and 70% acquired HIV through heterosexual exposure. At second-line switch, median [interquartile range (IQR)] age was 37 (32-42) years and median (IQR) CD4 count was 103 (43.5-229.5) cells/µL; 93% received regimens with boosted protease inhibitors (PIs). Median duration on second line was 3 years. Among 101 patients (7%) with VF, CD4 count > 200 cells/µL at switch [odds ratio (OR) = 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.17-0.77 vs. CD4 ≤ 50) and HIV exposure through male-male sex (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.17-0.64 vs. heterosexual) or injecting drug use (OR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.12-0.49) were associated with reduced VF. Of 41 (41%) patients with resistance data, 80% had at least one RAM to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 63% to NRTIs, and 35% to PIs. Of those with PI RAMs, 71% had two or more. CONCLUSIONS: There were low proportions with VF and significant RAMs in our cohort, reflecting the durability of current second-line regimens.

Risk factors for melanoma by anatomical site: an evaluation of aetiological heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma aetiology has been proposed to have two pathways, which are determined by naevi and type of sun exposure and related to the anatomical site where melanoma develops. OBJECTIVES: We examined associations with melanoma by anatomical site for a comprehensive set of risk factors including pigmentary and naevus phenotypes, ultraviolet radiation exposure and polygenic risk. METHODS: We analysed harmonized data from 2617 people with incident first invasive melanoma and 975 healthy controls recruited through two population-based case-control studies in Australia and the UK. Questionnaire data were collected by interview using a single protocol, and pathway-specific polygenic risk scores were derived from DNA samples. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression that compared melanoma cases at each anatomical site with all controls. RESULTS: When cases were compared with control participants, there were stronger associations for many naevi vs. no naevi for melanomas on the trunk, and upper and lower limbs than on the head and neck (P-heterogeneity < 0·001). Very fair skin (vs. olive/brown skin) was more weakly related to melanoma on the trunk than to melanomas at other sites (P-heterogeneity = 0·04). There was no significant difference by anatomical site for polygenic risk. Increased weekday sun exposure was positively associated with melanoma on the head and neck but not on other sites. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of aetiological heterogeneity for melanoma, supporting the dual pathway hypothesis. These findings enhance understanding of risk factors for melanoma and can guide prevention and skin examination education and practices.

Early mortality after late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Asia-Pacific.

OBJECTIVES: Early mortality among those still initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with advanced stages of HIV infection in resource-limited settings remains high despite recommendations for universal HIV treatment. We investigated risk factors associated with early mortality in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting ART at low CD4 levels in the Asia-Pacific. METHODS: PLHIV enrolled in the Therapeutics, Research, Education and AIDS Training in Asia (TREAT Asia) HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) who initiated ART with a CD4 count < 100 cells/µL between 2003 and 2018 were included in the study. Early mortality was defined as death within 1 year of ART initiation. PLHIV in follow-up for > 1 year were censored at 12 months. Competing risk regression was used to analyse risk factors with loss to follow-up as a competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 1813 PLHIV were included in the study, of whom 74% were male. With 73 (4%) deaths, the overall first-year mortality rate was 4.27 per 100 person-years (PY). Thirty-eight deaths (52%) were AIDS-related, 10 (14%) were immune reconstituted inflammatory syndrome (IRIS)-related, 13 (18%) were non-AIDS-related and 12 (16%) had an unknown cause. Risk factors included having a body mass index (BMI) < 18.5 [sub-hazard ratio (SHR) 2.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-5.32] compared to BMI 18.5-24.9, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≥ 5 times its upper limit of normal (ULN) (SHR 6.14; 95% CI 1.62-23.20) compared to ALT < 5 times its ULN. A higher CD4 count (51-100 cells/µL: SHR 0.28; 95% CI 0.14-0.55; and > 100 cells/µL: SHR 0.12; 95% CI 0.05-0.26) was associated with reduced hazard for mortality compared to CD4 count ≤ 25 cells/µL. CONCLUSIONS: Fifty-two per cent of early deaths were AIDS-related. Efforts to initiate ART at CD4 counts > 50 cell/µL are associated with improved short-term survival rates, even in those with late stages of HIV disease.

Is there a causal relationship between vitamin D and melanoma risk? A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Several preclinical studies have identified the antiproliferative effects of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D; vitamin D]. Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is essential for vitamin D synthesis yet increases the risk of melanoma. Observational studies on the association of vitamin D levels with melanoma risk have reported inconclusive results, and are difficult to interpret owing to the potential confounding from the dual role of UVR. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there is a causal association between genetically predicted 25(OH)D concentrations and melanoma using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. METHODS: We performed MR using summary data from a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of melanoma risk, consisting of 12 874 cases and 23 203 controls. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with 25(OH)D concentration - rs12785878, rs10741657, rs2282679, rs6013897 and rs116970203 - were selected as instrumental variables. An inverse variance weighted method was used to access the evidence for causality. MR results from the melanoma meta-analysis were combined with results from an MR study based on a melanoma risk GWAS using UK Biobank data. RESULTS: A 20 nmol L-1 decrease in 25(OH)D was not associated with melanoma risk [odds ratio (OR) 1·06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·95-1·19]. Results from the UK Biobank were concordant with this, with meta-analysis of our and UK Biobank-derived MR causal estimates showing no association (OR 1·02, 95% CI 0·92-1·13 for a 20 nmol L-1 decrease). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that vitamin D levels may not be causally associated with the risk of melanoma. What's already known about this topic? Antitumour activity of vitamin D has been identified in preclinical studies. Observational studies link vitamin D deficiency with an increased risk of a range of cancers. There is a growing public interest for vitamin D supplementation. Observational studies of melanoma are fraught with difficulties because while higher ultraviolet radiation levels increase vitamin D levels, such exposure is also associated with increased melanoma risk. Results from observational studies are inconclusive regarding the effect of vitamin D on melanoma risk. What does this study add? Using Mendelian randomization, an approach to causal inference, which is analogous to a natural randomized controlled trial, we found no causal association between vitamin D levels and melanoma.

Does polygenic risk influence associations between sun exposure and melanoma? A prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma develops as the result of complex interactions between sun exposure and genetic factors. However, data on these interactions from prospective studies are scant. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the association between ambient and personal ultraviolet exposure and incident melanoma in a large population-based prospective study of men and women residing in a setting of high ambient ultraviolet radiation, and to examine potential gene-environment interactions. METHODS: Data were obtained from the QSkin Sun and Health Study, a prospective cohort study of men and women aged 40-69 years, randomly sampled from the Queensland population in 2011. Participants were genotyped and assessed for ultraviolet exposure. RESULTS: Among participants with genetic data (n = 15 373), 420 (2·7%) developed cutaneous melanoma (173 invasive, 247 in situ) during a median follow-up time of 4·4 years. Country of birth, age at migration, having > 50 sunburns in childhood or adolescence, and a history of keratinocyte cancer or actinic lesions were significantly associated with melanoma risk. CONCLUSIONS: An interaction with polygenic risk was suggested: among people at low polygenic risk, markers of cumulative sun exposure (as measured by actinic damage) were associated with melanoma. In contrast, among people at high polygenic risk, markers of high-level early-life ambient exposure (as measured by place of birth) were associated with melanoma (hazard ratio for born in Australia vs. overseas 3·16, 95% confidence interval 1·39-7·22). These findings suggest interactions between genotype and environment that are consistent with divergent pathways for melanoma development. What's already known about this topic? The relationship between sun exposure and melanoma is complex, and exposure effects are highly modified by host factors and behaviours. The role of genotype on the relationship between ultraviolet radiation exposure and melanoma risk is poorly understood. What does this study add? We found that country of birth, age at migration, sunburns in childhood or adolescence, and history of keratinocyte cancer or actinic lesions were significantly associated with melanoma risk, while other measures of continuous or more intermittent patterns of sun exposure were not. We found evidence for gene-environment interactions that are consistent with divergent pathways for melanoma development. Linked Comment: Cust. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:205-206. Plain language summary available online.

A risk prediction model for the development of subsequent primary melanoma in a population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for follow-up of patients with melanoma are based on limited evidence. OBJECTIVES: To guide skin surveillance, we developed a risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using demographic, phenotypical, histopathological, sun exposure and genomic risk factors. METHODS: Using Cox regression frailty models, we analysed data for 2613 primary melanomas from 1266 patients recruited to the population-based Genes, Environment and Melanoma study in New South Wales, Australia, with a median of 14 years' follow-up via the cancer registry. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. RESULTS: The median time to diagnosis of a subsequent primary melanoma decreased with each new primary melanoma. The final model included 12 risk factors. Harrell's C-statistic was 0·73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·68-0·77], 0·65 (95% CI 0·62-0·68) and 0·65 (95% CI 0·61-0·69) for predicting second, third and fourth primary melanomas, respectively. The risk of a subsequent primary melanoma was 4·75 times higher (95% CI 3·87-5·82) for the highest vs. the lowest quintile of the risk score. The mean absolute risk of a subsequent primary melanoma within 5 years was 8·0 ± SD 4.1% after the first primary melanoma, and 46·8 ± 15·0% after the second, but varied substantially by risk score. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing a subsequent primary melanoma varies considerably between individuals and is particularly high for those with two or more primary melanomas. The risk prediction model and its associated nomograms enable estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanoma, on the basis of on an individual's risk factors, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate risk and provide patient education. What's already known about this topic? Current guidelines for the frequency and length of follow-up to detect new primary melanomas in patients with one or more previous primary melanomas are based on limited evidence. People with one or more primary melanomas have, on average, a higher risk of developing another primary invasive melanoma, compared with the general population, but an accurate way of estimating individual risk is needed. What does this study add? We provide a comprehensive risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using data from 1266 participants with melanoma (2613 primary melanomas), over a median 14 years' follow-up. The model includes 12 risk factors comprising demographic, phenotypical, histopathological and genomic factors, and sun exposure. It enables estimation of the absolute risk of subsequent primary melanomas, and can be used to tailor surveillance intensity, communicate individual risk and provide patient education.

Cardiovascular disease and diabetes in HIV-positive and HIV-negative gay and bisexual men over the age of 55 years in Australia: insights from the Australian Positive & Peers Longevity Evaluation Study.

OBJECTIVES: As HIV-positive people age, diagnosis and management of comorbidities associated with ageing are of increasing concern. In this study, we aimed to compare the self-reported prevalences of heart disease, stroke, thrombosis and diabetes in older Australian HIV-positive and HIV-negative gay and bisexual men (GBM). METHODS: We analysed data from the Australian Positive & Peers Longevity Evaluation Study (APPLES), a study of a prospectively recruited cross-sectional sample of 228 (51.1%) HIV-positive and 218 (48.9%) HIV-negative GBM, aged ≥ 55 years. Regression methods were used to assess the association of HIV status with self-reported comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 446 patients, 389 [200 (51.4%) HIV-positive] reported their disease history. The reported prevalence of comorbidities was higher in the HIV-positive group than in the HIV-negative group: heart disease, 19.5 versus 12.2%; stroke, 7.5 versus 4.2%; thrombosis, 10.5 versus 4.2%; and diabetes, 15.0 versus 9.0%, respectively. In adjusted analyses, HIV-positive GBM had significantly increased odds of reporting heart disease [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.99; P = 0.03] and thrombosis (aOR 2.87; P = 0.01). In our analysis, HIV status was not significantly associated with either age at diagnosis of heart disease (median 53 years for HIV-positive GBM versus 55 years for HIV-negative GBM; P = 0.64) or 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimated using the Framingham risk score. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive GBM more commonly reported heart disease and thrombosis compared with their HIV-negative peers. These results further highlight the need to understand the impact of HIV on age-related comorbidities in GBM, to guide optimal screening and treatment strategies to reduce the risk of these comorbidities among the HIV-positive population.

Diabetes, mortality and glucose monitoring rates in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database Low Intensity Transfer (TAHOD-LITE) study.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetes is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated the association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels and mortality, and factors associated with FPG monitoring rates in Asia. METHODS: Patients from the Therapeutics Research, Education, and AIDS Training in Asia (TREAT Asia) HIV Observational Database Low Intensity Transfer (TAHOD-LITE) cohort were included in the present study if they had initiated ART. Competing risk and Poisson regression were used to analyse the association between FPG and mortality, and assess risk factors for FPG monitoring rates, respectively. FPG was categorized as diabetes (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L), prediabetes (FPG 5.6-6.9 mmol/L) and normal FPG (FPG < 5.6 mmol/L). RESULTS: In total, 33 232 patients were included in the analysis. Throughout follow-up, 59% had no FPG test available. The incidence rate for diabetes was 13.7 per 1000 person-years in the 4649 patients with normal FPG at ART initiation. Prediabetes [sub-hazard ratio (sHR) 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.64] and diabetes (sHR 1.90; 95% CI 1.52-2.38) were associated with mortality compared to those with normal FPG. FPG monitoring increased from 0.34 to 0.78 tests per person-year from 2012 to 2016 (P < 0.001). Male sex [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12], age > 50 years (IRR 1.14; 95% CI 1.09-1.19) compared to ≤ 40 years, and CD4 count ≥ 500 cells/µL (IRR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.09) compared to < 200 cells/µL were associated with increased FPG monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes and prediabetes were associated with mortality. FPG monitoring increased over time; however, less than half of our cohort had been tested. Greater resources should be allocated to FPG monitoring for early diabetic treatment and intervention and to optimize survival.

Long-term loss to follow-up in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

OBJECTIVES: With earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, time spent in HIV care is expected to increase. We aimed to investigate loss to follow-up (LTFU) in Asian patients who remained in care 5 years after ART initiation. METHODS: Long-term LTFU was defined as LTFU occurring after 5 years on ART. LTFU was defined as (1) patients not seen in the previous 12 months; and (2) patients not seen in the previous 6 months. Factors associated with LTFU were analysed using competing risk regression. RESULTS: Under the 12-month definition, the LTFU rate was 2.0 per 100 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.2 among 4889 patients included in the study. LTFU was associated with age > 50 years [sub-hazard ratio (SHR) 1.64; 95% CI 1.17-2.31] compared with 31-40 years, viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL (SHR 1.86; 95% CI 1.16-2.97) compared with viral load < 1000 copies/mL, and hepatitis C coinfection (SHR 1.48; 95% CI 1.06-2.05). LTFU was less likely to occur in females, in individuals with higher CD4 counts, in those with self-reported adherence ≥ 95%, and in those living in high-income countries. The 6-month LTFU definition produced an incidence rate of 3.2 per 100 PY (95% CI 2.9-3.4 and had similar associations but with greater risks of LTFU for ART initiation in later years (2006-2009: SHR 2.38; 95% CI 1.93-2.94; and 2010-2011: SHR 4.26; 95% CI 3.17-5.73) compared with 2003-2005. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term LTFU rate in our cohort was low, with older age being associated with LTFU. The increased risk of LTFU with later years of ART initiation in the 6-month analysis, but not the 12-month analysis, implies that there was a possible move towards longer HIV clinic scheduling in Asia.

Association between exposure to antiretroviral drugs and the incidence of hypertension in HIV-positive persons: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have suggested that hypertension in HIV-positive individuals is associated primarily with traditional risk factors such as older age, diabetes and dyslipidaemia. However, controversy remains as to whether exposure to antiretroviral (ARV) drugs poses additional risk, and we investigated this question in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hypertension [systolic blood pressure (BP) > 140 and/or diastolic BP > 90 mmHg and/or initiation of antihypertensive treatment] was determined overall and in strata defined by demographic, metabolic and HIV-related factors, including cumulative exposure to each individual ARV drug. Predictors of hypertension were identified using uni- and multivariable Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Of 33 278 included persons, 7636 (22.9%) developed hypertension over 223 149 person-years (PY) [incidence rate: 3.42 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.35-3.50) per 100 PY]. In univariable analyses, cumulative exposure to most ARV drugs was associated with an increased risk of hypertension. After adjustment for demographic, metabolic and HIV-related factors, only associations for nevirapine [rate ratio 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.13) per 5 years] and indinavir/ritonavir [rate ratio 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04-1.20) per 5 years] remained statistically significant, although effects were small. The strongest independent predictors of hypertension were male gender, older age, black African ethnicity, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, use of lipid-lowering drugs, high body mass index (BMI), renal impairment and a low CD4 count. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence for any strong independent association between exposure to any of the individual ARV drugs and the risk of hypertension. Findings provide reassurance that screening policies and preventative measures for hypertension in HIV-positive persons should follow algorithms used for the general population.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and survival among people with hepatitis C: An international study.

This study evaluates trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and survival in three settings, prior to introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. HCV notifications from British Columbia (BC), Canada; New South Wales (NSW), Australia; and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to HCC diagnosis data via hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively) and mortality (1995-2013/2014/2015, respectively). Age-standardized HCC incidence rates were evaluated, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and median survival time after HCC diagnosis was calculated. Among 58 487, 84 529 and 31 924 people with HCV in BC, NSW and Scotland, 734 (1.3%), 1045 (1.2%) and 345 (1.1%) had an HCC diagnosis. Since mid-2000s, HCC diagnosis numbers increased in all jurisdictions. Age-standardized HCC incidence rates remained stable in BC and Scotland and increased in NSW. The strongest predictor of HCC diagnosis was older age [birth <1945, aHR in BC 5.74, 95% CI 4.84, 6.82; NSW 9.26, 95% CI 7.93, 10.82; Scotland 12.55, 95% CI 9.19, 17.15]. Median survival after HCC diagnosis remained stable in BC (0.8 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2011) and NSW (0.9 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2013) and improved in Scotland (0.7 years in 2001-2006 to 1.5 years in 2007-2014). Across the settings, HCC burden increased, individual-level risk of HCC remained stable or increased, and HCC survival remained extremely low. These findings highlight the minimal impact of HCC prevention and management strategies during the interferon-based HCV treatment era and form the basis for evaluating the impact of DAA therapy in the coming years.

Life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting combination antiretroviral therapy: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Life expectancy is an important indicator informing decision making in policies relating to HIV-infected people. Studies estimating life expectancy after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) have noted differences between income regions. The objective of our study was to perform a meta-analysis to assess life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART, and to quantify differences between low/middle- and high-income countries. METHODS: Eight cohort studies estimating life expectancy in HIV-positive people initiating cART aged ≥ 14 years using the abridged life table method were identified. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimated outcomes, overall and by income region. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with the I2 statistic. We estimated additional years of life expected after starting cART at ages 20 and 35 years. RESULTS: Overall life expectancy in high-income countries was an additional 43.3 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 42.5-44.2 years] and 32.2 years (95% CI 30.9-33.5 years) at ages 20 and 35 years, respectively, and 28.3 (95% CI 23.3-33.3) and 25.6 (95% CI 22.1-29.2) additional years, respectively, in low/middle-income countries. In low/middle-income countries, life expectancy after starting cART at age 20 years was an additional 22.9 years (95% CI 18.4-27.5 years) for men and 33.0 years (95% CI 30.4-35.6 years) for women, but was similar in the two sexes in high-income countries. In all income regions, life expectancy after starting cART increased over calendar time. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART has improved over time. Monitoring life expectancy into the future is important to assess how changes to cART guidelines will affect patient long-term outcomes.

Chronic hepatitis C infection and liver disease in HIV-coinfected patients in Asia.

Data on markers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients in resource-limited settings are scarce. We assessed HCV RNA, HCV genotype (GT), IL28B GT and liver fibrosis (FibroScan® ) in 480 HIV-infected patients with positive HCV antibody in four HIV treatment centres in South-East Asia. We enrolled 165 (34.4%) patients in Jakarta, 158 (32.9%) in Bangkok, 110 (22.9%) in Hanoi and 47 (9.8%) in Kuala Lumpur. Overall, 426 (88.8%) were male, the median (IQR) age was 38.1 (34.7-42.5) years, 365 (76.0%) reported HCV exposure through injecting drug use, and 453 (94.4%) were on combination antiretroviral therapy. The median (IQR) CD4 count was 446 (325-614) cells/mm3 and 208 (94.1%) of 221 patients tested had HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/mL. A total of 412 (85.8%) had detectable HCV RNA, at a median (IQR) of 6.2 (5.4-6.6) log10 IU/mL. Among 380 patients with HCV GT, 223 (58.7%) had GT1, 97 (25.5%) had GT3, 43 (11.3%) had GT6, eight (2.1%) had GT4, two (0.5%) had GT2, and seven (1.8%) had indeterminate GT. Of 222 patients with IL28B testing, 189 (85.1%) had rs12979860 CC genotype, and 199 (89.6%) had rs8099917 TT genotype. Of 380 patients with FibroScan® , 143 (37.6%) had no/mild liver fibrosis (F0-F1), 83 (21.8%) had moderate fibrosis (F2), 74 (19.5%) had severe fibrosis (F3), and 79 (20.8%) had cirrhosis (F4). One patient (0.3%) had FibroScan® failure. In conclusion, a high proportion of HIV-HCV-coinfected patients had chronic HCV infection. HCV GT1 was predominant, and 62% of patients had liver disease warranting prompt treatment (≥F2).

Misspecification of at-risk periods and distributional assumptions in estimating COPD exacerbation rates: The resultant bias in treatment effect estimation.

In trials comparing the rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation between treatment arms, the rate is typically calculated on the basis of the whole of each patient's follow-up period. However, the true time a patient is at risk should exclude periods in which an exacerbation episode is occurring, because a patient cannot be at risk of another exacerbation episode until recovered. We used data from two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease randomized controlled trials and compared treatment effect estimates and confidence intervals when using two different definitions of the at-risk period. Using a simulation study we examined the bias in the estimated treatment effect and the coverage of the confidence interval, using these two definitions of the at-risk period. We investigated how the sample size required for a given power changes on the basis of the definition of at-risk period used. Our results showed that treatment efficacy is underestimated when the at-risk period does not take account of exacerbation duration, and the power to detect a statistically significant result is slightly diminished. Correspondingly, using the correct at-risk period, some modest savings in required sample size can be achieved. Using the proposed at-risk period that excludes recovery times requires formal definitions of the beginning and end of an exacerbation episode, and we recommend these be always predefined in a trial protocol.

Hospitalisation rates and associated factors in community-based cohorts of HIV-infected and -uninfected gay and bisexual men.

OBJECTIVES: There is evidence that HIV-positive patients are suffering from a greater burden of morbidity as they age due to nonAIDS-related complications. To date it has been difficult to determine what part of this excess risk is due to the health effects of HIV, its treatment or to lifestyle factors common to gay and bisexual men (GBM). We calculated overall and cause-specific hospitalisation rates and risk factors for hospitalisations in HIV-negative and HIV-positive cohorts of GBM and compare these with rates in the general male population. METHODS: We conducted a record linkage study, linking two cohorts of HIV-negative (n = 1325) and HIV-positive (n = 557) GBM recruited in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia with the NSW hospital discharge data register. We compared rates of hospitalisation in the two cohorts and risk factors for hospitalisation using random-effects Poisson regression methods. Hospitalisation rates for each cohort were further compared with those in the general male population using indirect standardisation. RESULTS: We observed 2032 hospitalisations in the HIV-negative cohort during 13,016 person-years (PYs) [crude rate: 15.6/100 PYs (95% CI: 14.9-16.3)] and 2130 hospitalisations in the HIV-positive cohort during 5571 PYs [crude rate: 38.2/100 PYs (95% CI: 36.6-39.9)]. HIV-positive individuals had an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with the HIV-negative individuals [adjusted-IRR: 2.34 (95% CI: 1.91-2.86)] and the general population [SHR: 1.45 (95% CI: 1.33-1.59)]. Hospitalisation rates were lower in the HIV-negative cohort compared with the general population [SHR: 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78)]. The primary causes of hospitalisation differed between groups. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive GBM continue to experience excess morbidity compared with HIV-negative GBM men and the general population. HIV-negative GBM had lower morbidity compared with the general male population suggesting that GBM identity does not confer excess risk.