Incidence of Transient Ischemic Attack and Association With Long-term Risk of Stroke.

Importance: Accurate estimation of the association between transient ischemic attack (TIA) and risk of subsequent stroke can help to improve preventive efforts and limit the burden of stroke in the population. Objective: To determine population-based incidence of TIA and the timing and long-term trends of stroke risk after TIA. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study (Framingham Heart Study) of prospectively collected data of 14 059 participants with no history of TIA or stroke at baseline, followed up from 1948-December 31, 2017. A sample of TIA-free participants was matched to participants with first incident TIA on age and sex (ratio, 5:1). Exposures: Calendar time (TIA incidence calculation, time-trends analyses), TIA (matched longitudinal cohort). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were TIA incidence rates; proportion of stroke occurring after TIA in the short term (7, 30, and 90 days) vs the long term (>1-10 years); stroke after TIA vs stroke among matched control participants without TIA; and time trends of stroke risk at 90 days after TIA assessed in 3 epochs: 1954-1985, 1986-1999, and 2000-2017. Results: Among 14 059 participants during 66 years of follow-up (366 209 person-years), 435 experienced TIA (229 women; mean age, 73.47 [SD, 11.48] years and 206 men; mean age, 70.10 [SD, 10.64] years) and were matched to 2175 control participants without TIA. The estimated incidence rate of TIA was 1.19/1000 person-years. Over a median of 8.86 years of follow-up after TIA, 130 participants (29.5%) had a stroke; 28 strokes (21.5%) occurred within 7 days, 40 (30.8%) occurred within 30 days, 51 (39.2%) occurred within 90 days, and 63 (48.5%) occurred more than 1 year after the index TIA; median time to stroke was 1.64 (interquartile range, 0.07-6.6) years. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative 10-year hazard of incident stroke for patients with TIA (130 strokes among 435 cases) was 0.46 (95% CI, 0.39-0.55) and for matched control participants without TIA (165 strokes among 2175) was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.08-0.11); fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 4.37 (95% CI, 3.30-5.71; P < .001). Compared with the 90-day stroke risk after TIA in 1948-1985 (16.7%; 26 strokes among 155 patients with TIA), the risk between 1986-1999 was 11.1% (18 strokes among 162 patients) and between 2000-2017 was 5.9% (7 strokes among 118 patients). Compared with the first epoch, the HR for 90-day risk of stroke in the second epoch was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.33-1.12) and in the third epoch was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.14-0.75) (P = .005 for trend). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study from 1948-2017, the estimated crude TIA incidence was 1.19/1000 person-years, the risk of stroke was significantly greater after TIA compared with matched control participants who did not have TIA, and the risk of stroke after TIA was significantly lower in the most recent epoch from 2000-2017 compared with an earlier period from 1948-1985.

Nephrologists' emotional burden regarding decision-making about dialysis initiation in older adults: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Conservative management, an approach to treating end-stage kidney disease without dialysis, while generally associated with shorter life expectancy than treatment with dialysis, is associated with fewer hospitalizations, better functional status and, potentially, better quality of life. Conservative management is a well-established treatment approach in a number of Western countries, including the United Kingdom (U.K.). In contrast, despite clinical practice guidelines in the United States (U.S.) recommending that nephrologists discuss all treatment options, including conservative management, with stage 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease patients, studies suggest that this rarely occurs. Therefore, we explored U.S. nephrologists' approaches to decision-making about dialysis and perspectives on conservative management among older adults. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative research study. We interviewed 20 nephrologists - 15 from academic centers and 5 from community practices - utilizing a semi-structured interview guide containing open-ended questions. Interview transcripts were analyzed using grounded thematic analysis in which codes were generated inductively and iteratively modified, and themes were identified. Transcripts were coded independently by two investigators, and interviews were conducted until thematic saturation. RESULTS: Twenty nephrologists (85% white, 75% male, mean age 50) participated in interviews. We found that decision-making about dialysis initiation in older adults can create emotional burden for nephrologists. We identified four themes that reflected factors that contribute to this emotional burden including nephrologists' perspectives that: 1) uncertainty exists about how a patient will do on dialysis, 2) the alternative to dialysis is death, 3) confronting death is difficult, and 4) patients do not regret initiating dialysis. Three themes revealed different decision-making strategies that nephrologists use to reduce this emotional burden: 1) convincing patients to "just do it" (i.e. dialysis), 2) shifting the decision-making responsibility to patients, and 3) utilizing time-limited trials of dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: A decision not to start dialysis and instead pursue conservative management can be emotionally burdensome for nephrologists for a number of reasons including clinical uncertainty about prognosis on dialysis and discomfort with death. Nephrologists' attempts to reduce this burden may be reflected in different decision-making styles - paternalistic, informed, and shared decision-making. Shared decision-making may relieve some of the emotional burden while preserving patient-centered care.

Nephrologists' perspectives and experiences with hospice among older adults with end-stage kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Hospice care leads to improved patient and family outcomes. Hospice use among older adults with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is markedly lower than among older adults with other serious illnesses, and the majority of those with ESKD who use hospice enroll in the last days of life. Here, our aim was to explore barriers to timely receipt of high-quality hospice care for older adults with ESKD. METHODS: Utilizing a qualitative study design, we conducted a secondary analysis focused on hospice, a theme that we identified in our larger overarching study that involved semi-structured interviews with 20 nephrologists in the United States focused on treatment decision-making in older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease. We analyzed the interview transcripts using emergent thematic analysis to develop an understanding of barriers to high-quality hospice. RESULTS: With a couple notable exceptions, nephrologists voiced general support for the concept of hospice, but few recalled patients of theirs who had received hospice. Nephrologists' interviews revealed two interrelated contributors to the lack of timely access to high-quality hospice care for seriously ill older adults with ESKD: (1) nephrologists view dialysis and hospice as mutually exclusive models of care; (2) nephrologists feel unsure who should manage hospice care for patients with ESKD. The first contributor was rooted in nephrologists' narrow vision of when to consider hospice (informed, in part, by policy barriers) and, in a couple of cases, strong discomfort with hospice. The second stemmed from nephrologists' belief that neither they nor hospice are adequately prepared to provide hospice care for ESKD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, in addition to Medicare policy change, nephrologists need to receive more training in primary palliative care skills including in indications for hospice, initiating conversations about hospice with patients, and collaborating with hospice clinicians to care for these vulnerable patients.