Comparison of Colonoscopy, Fecal Immunochemical Test, and Risk-Adapted Approach in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial (TARGET-C).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The screening yield and related cost of a risk-adapted screening approach compared with established screening strategies in population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are not clear. METHODS: We randomly allocated 19,373 participants into 1 of the 3 screening arms in a 1:2:2 ratio: (1) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3883); (2) annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (n = 7793); (3) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7697), in which, based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk participants were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. Three consecutive screening rounds were conducted for both the FIT and the risk-adapted screening arms. Follow-up to trace the health outcome for all the participants was conducted over the 3-year study period. The detection rate of advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRC and advanced precancerous lesions) was the main outcome. The trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (number: ChiCTR1800015506). RESULTS: In the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening arms over 3 screening rounds, the participation rates were 42.4%, 99.3%, and 89.2%, respectively; the detection rates for advanced neoplasm (intention-to-treat analysis) were 2.76%, 2.17%, and 2.35%, respectively, with an odds ratio (OR)colonoscopy vs FIT of 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99-1.63; P = .056), an ORcolonoscopy vsrisk-adapted screening of 1.17 (95% CI, 0.91-1.49; P = .218), and an ORrisk-adapted screeningvs FIT of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.88-1.35; P = .438); the numbers of colonoscopies needed to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 15.4, 7.8, and 10.2, respectively; the costs for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm from a government perspective using package payment format were 6928 Chinese Yuan (CNY) ($1004), 5821 CNY ($844), and 6694 CNY ($970), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-adapted approach is a feasible and cost-favorable strategy for population-based CRC screening and therefore could complement the well-established one-time colonoscopy and annual repeated FIT screening strategies. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; ChiCTR1800015506).

Medical expenditure for lung cancer in China: a multicenter, hospital-based retrospective survey.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the most prevalent cancer, and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical expenditure incurred for lung cancer care and analyze the trend therein for the period 2002-2011 using nationally representative data in China METHODS: This study was based on 10-year, multicenter retrospective expenditure data collected from hospital records, covering 15,437 lung cancer patients from 13 provinces diagnosed during the period 2002-2011. All expenditure data were adjusted to 2011 to eliminate the effects of inflation using China's annual consumer price index. RESULTS: The direct medical expenditure for lung cancer care (in 2011) was 39,015 CNY (US$6,041) per case, with an annual growth rate of 7.55% from 2002 to 2011. Drug costs were the highest proportionally in the total medical expenditure (54.27%), followed by treatment expenditure (14.32%) and surgical expenditure (8.10%). Medical expenditures for the disease varied based on region, hospital level, type, and stage. CONCLUSION: The medical expenditure for lung cancer care is substantial in China. Drug costs and laboratory test are the main factors increasing medical costs.

Health-related quality of life of patients with colorectal neoplasms in China: A multicenter cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study aimed to clarify health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with colorectal precancer and colorectal cancer (CRC) in China and to better understand related utility scores. METHODS: A hospital-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in precancer and CRC patients from 2012 to 2014, covering 12 provinces in China. HRQoL was assessed with EuroQol 5-Dimensions 3-Levels. Utility scores were derived using Chinese value set. A multivariate regression model was established to explore potential predictors of utility scores. RESULTS: A total of 376 precancer (mean age 58.7 years, 61.2% men) and 2470 CRC patients (mean age 58.6 years, 57.6% men) were included. In five dimensions, there was a certain percentage of problem reported among precancer (range: 12.0% to 36.7%) and CRC (range: 32.4% to 50.3%) patients, with pain/discomfort being the most serious dimension. Utility scores of precancer and CRC patients were 0.870 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.855-0.886) and 0.751 (95% CI, 0.742-0.759), both of which were lower than those of general Chinese population (0.960 [95% CI, 0.960-0.960]). Utilities for patients at stage I to stage IV were 0.742 (95% CI, 0.715-0.769), 0.722 (95% CI, 0.705-0.740), 0.756 (95% CI, 0.741-0.772), and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.742-0.767), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that therapeutic regimen, time point of the interview, education, occupation, annual household income, and geographic region were associated with utilities of CRC patients. CONCLUSION: Health-related quality of life of both precancer and CRC patients in China declined considerably. Utility scores differed by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and findings of these utilities may facilitate implementation of further cost-utility evaluations.

Comparing EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L performance in common cancers: suggestions for instrument choosing.

PURPOSE: To compare the performance of three-level EuroQol five-dimensions (EQ-5D-3L) and five-level EuroQol five-dimensions (EQ-5D-5L) among common cancer patients in urban China. METHODS: A hospital-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three provinces from 2016 to 2018 in urban China. Patients with breast cancer, colorectal cancer, or lung cancer were recruited to complete the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L questionnaires. Response distribution, discriminatory power (indicator: Shannon index [H'] and Shannon evenness index [J']), ceiling effect (the proportion of full health state), convergent validity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were compared between the two instruments. RESULTS: A total of 1802 cancer patients (breast cancer: 601, colorectal cancer: 601, lung cancer: 600) were included, with the mean age of 55.6 years. The average inconsistency rate was 4.4%. Compared with EQ-5D-3L (average: H' = 1.100, J' = 0.696), an improved discriminatory power was observed in EQ-5D-5L (H' = 1.473, J' = 0.932), especially contributing to anxiety/depression dimensions. The ceiling effect was diminished in EQ-5D-5L (26.5%) in comparison with EQ-5D-3L (34.5%) (p < 0.001), mainly reflected in the pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression dimensions. The overall utility score was 0.790 (95% CI 0.778-0.801) for EQ-5D-3L and 0.803 (0.790-0.816) for EQ-5D-5L (p < 0.001). A similar pattern was also observed in the detailed cancer-specific analysis. CONCLUSIONS: With greater discriminatory power, convergent validity and lower ceiling, EQ-5D-5L may be preferable to EQ-5D-3L for the assessment of HRQoL among cancer patients. However, higher utility scores derived form EQ-5D-5L may also lead to lower QALY gains than those of 3L potentially in cost-utility studies and underestimation in the burden of disease.

Comparative Evaluation of Participation and Diagnostic Yield of Colonoscopy vs Fecal Immunochemical Test vs Risk-Adapted Screening in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Interim Analysis of a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial (TARGET-C).

INTRODUCTION: In colorectal cancer screening, implementing risk-adapted screening might be more effective than traditional screening strategies. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of a risk-adapted screening strategy with colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) in colorectal cancer screening. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in 6 centers in China since May 2018. Nineteen thousand five hundred forty-six eligible participants aged 50-74 years were recruited and randomly allocated into 1 of the 3 screening groups in a 1:2:2 ratio: (i) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3,916), (ii) annual FIT (n = 7,854), and (iii) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7,776). Based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk subjects were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. All subjects with positive FIT were referred for diagnostic colonoscopy. The detection rate of advanced neoplasm was the primary outcome. The study is registered with the China Clinical Trial Registry (www.chictr.org.cn Identifier: ChiCTR1800015506). RESULTS: For baseline screening, the participation rates of the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening groups were 42.5% (1,665/3,916), 94.0% (7,386/7,854), and 85.2% (6,628/7,776), respectively. For the intention-to-screen analysis, the detection rates of advanced neoplasm were 2.40% (94/3,916), 1.13% (89/7,854), and 1.66% (129/7,776), with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.16 (1.61-2.90; P < 0.001) for colonoscopy vs FIT, 1.45 (1.10-1.90; P < 0.001) for colonoscopy vs risk-adapted screening, and 1.49 (1.13-1.97; P < 0.001) for risk-adapted screening vs FIT, respectively. The numbers of subjects who required a colonoscopic examination to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 18 in the colonoscopy group, 10 in the FIT group, and 11 in the risk-adapted screening group. DISCUSSION: For baseline screening, the risk-adapted screening approach showed a high participation rate, and its diagnostic yield was superior to that of FIT at a similarly low load of colonoscopy.

Initial results from a multi-center population-based cluster randomized trial of esophageal and gastric cancer screening in China.

BACKGROUND: We initiated the first multi-center cluster randomized trial of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer and gastric cancer in China. The objective of the study was to report the baseline screening findings in this trial. METHODS: We recruited a total of 345 eligible clusters from seven screening centers. In the intervention group, participants from high-risk areas were screened by endoscopy; in non-high-risk areas, high-risk individuals were identified using a questionnaire and advised for endoscopy. Lugol's iodine staining in esophagus and indigo carmine dye in stomach were performed to aid in the diagnosis of suspicious lesions. The primary outcomes of this study were the detection rate (proportion of positive cases among individuals who underwent endoscopic screening) and early detection rate (the proportion of positive cases with stage 0/I among all positive cases). RESULTS: A total of 149,956 eligible subjects were included. The detection rate was 0.7% in esophagus and 0.8% in stomach, respectively. Compared with non-high-risk areas, the detection rates in high-risk areas were higher, both in esophagus (0.9% vs. 0.1%) and in stomach (0.9% vs. 0.3%). The same difference was found for early-detection rate (esophagus: 92.9% vs. 53.3%; stomach: 81.5% vs. 33.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic yield of both esophagus and stomach were higher in high-risk areas than in non-high-risk areas, even though in non-high-risk areas, only high-risk individuals were screened. Our study may provide important clues for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of upper-endoscopic screening in China. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Protocol Registration System in Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-EOR-16008577. Registered 01 June 2016-Retrospectively registered, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=14372.

Health-related quality of life and health utility score of patients with gastric cancer: A multi-centre cross-sectional survey in China.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and health state utility scores of gastric cancer patients in daily life at different clinical stages after treatment, and to explore influencing factors associated with HRQoL. METHODS: Gastric cancer patients discharged from hospitals and healthy controls identified by screening were recruited. The three-level EQ-5D was employed to assess HRQoL and was scored using two Chinese-specific tariffs published in 2014 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 1,399 patients and 2,179 healthy controls were recruited. The likelihood of reporting problems in the five dimensions for patients was 4.0-23.8 times higher than controls. Based on the 2014/2018 tariff, the mean EQ-5D utility score was 0.321/0.163 lower than controls, and the mean utility scores of each patient subgroup were 0.077/0.039 (high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia/carcinoma in situ), 0.254/0.121 (Stage I), 0.249/0.123 (Stage II), 0.353/0.182 (Stage III) and 0.591/0.309 (Stage IV) lower than controls (all statistically significant). Age, occupation, duration of illness, other chronic disease status and therapeutic regimen had a significant impact upon different aspects of HRQoL in patients. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric cancer significantly impaired patients' HRQoL in daily life after treatment. More advanced cancer stages were associated with larger decrements on health state utility.

Short-term impact of breast cancer screening intervention on health-related quality of life in China: A multicentre cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of participating in breast cancer screening programmes on health-related quality of life (HRQoL)is poorly understood. METHODS: Based on a national breast cancer screening programme in China, a multicentre cross-sectional survey was conducted covering 12 provinces from September 2013 to December 2014. HRQoL of participants in the screening population and general population was evaluated by the three-levelEuroQol-five-Dimensions (EQ-5D-3L) instrument, and utility scores were generated through the Chinese value set. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to explore determinants of utility scores and anxiety/depression problems. RESULTS: For screening group and general population (n = 4756, mean age = 51.6 year old), the corresponding utility scores were 0.937 (95% CI, 0.933-0.941) and 0.953 (0.949-0.957) (P < .001). Pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression were the most common reported in both groups (51.4% and 34.3%, P < .001). Utility scores at prescreening, in-screening, and postscreening interview timings were 0.928 (0.921-0.935), 0.958 (0.948-0.969), and 0.938 (0.933-0.943), respectively (P < .001); the corresponding proportions of anxiety/depression reporting were 25.9%, 16.3%, and 21.1%, respectively (P = .004). Interview timing, geographical region, and insurance status were associated with HRQoL and anxiety/depression in women at high-risk of breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Utility scores of screening participants were significantly lower than that of general population in China, but the difference may be clinically insignificant. Further cohort studies using HRQoL measurements are needed.

Medical expenditures for colorectal cancer diagnosis and treatment: A 10-year high-level-hospital-based multicenter retrospective survey in China, 2002-2011.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) causes a substantial burden of disease in China and the evidence of economic burden triggered is fundamental for priority setting. The aim of this survey was to quantify medical expenditures and the time trends for CRC diagnosis and treatment in China. METHODS: From 2012 to 2014, a hospital-based multicenter retrospective survey was conducted in 13 provinces across China. For each eligible CRC patient diagnosed from 2002 to 2011, clinical information and expenditure data were extracted using a uniform questionnaire. All expenditure data were reported in Chinese Yuan (CNY) using 2011 values. RESULTS: Of the 14,536 CRC patients included, the average age at diagnosis was 58.2 years and 15.8% were stage-I cases. The average medical expenditure per patient was estimated at 37,902 CNY [95 % confidence interval (95% CI): 37,282-38,522], and the annual average increase rate was 9.2% from 2002 to 2011 (P for trend <0.001), with a cumulative increase of 2.4 times (from 23,275 CNY to 56,010 CNY). The expenditure per patient in stages I, II, III and IV were 31,698 CNY, 37,067 CNY, 38,918 CNY and 42,614 CNY, respectively (P<0.001). Expenditure significantly differed within various subgroups. Expenses for drugs contributed the largest proportion (52.6%). CONCLUSIONS: These conservative estimates illustrated that medical expenditures for CRC diagnosis and treatment in tertiary hospitals in China were substantial and increased rapidly over the 10 years, with drugs continually being the main expense by 2011. Relatively, medical expenditures are lower for CRC in the earlier stages. These findings will facilitate the economic evaluation of CRC prevention and control in China.

Medical expenses of urban Chinese patients with stomach cancer during 2002-2011: a hospital-based multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: In China, stomach cancer is the third most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer death. Few studies have examined Chinese stomach cancer patients' medical expenses and their associated trends. The Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) is a Major Public Health Project funded by the central government. Through this project, we have extracted patients' medical expenses from hospital billing data to examine the costs of the first course treatments (which refers to 2 months before and 10 months after the date of cancer diagnosis) in Chinese patients with stomach cancer and the associated trends. METHODS: The expense data of 14,692 urban Chinese patients with stomach cancer were collected from 40 hospitals in 13 provinces. We estimated the inflation-adjusted medical expenses per patient during 2002-2011. We described the time trends of medical expenses at the country-level, and those trends by subgroup, and analyzed the compositions of medical expenses. We constructed the Generalized Linear Mixed (GLM) regression model with Poisson distribution to examine the factors that were associated with medical expenses per patient. RESULTS: The average medical expenses of the first course treatments were about 43,249 CNY (6851 USD) in 2011, more than twice of that in 2002. The expenses increased by an average annual rate of 7.4%. Longer stay during hospitalization and an increased number of episodes of care are the two main contributors to the expense increase. The upward trend of medical expenses was observed in almost all patient subgroups. Drug expenses accounted for over half of the medical expenses. CONCLUSIONS: The average medical expenses of the first course (2 months before and 10 months after the date of cancer diagnosis) treatments per stomach cancer patient in urban China in 2011 were doubled during the previous 10 years, and about twice as high as the per capita disposable income of urban households in the same year. Such high expenses indicate that it makes economic sense to invest in cancer prevention and control in China.

Annual cost of illness of stomach and esophageal cancer patients in urban and rural areas in China: A multi-center study.

OBJECTIVE: Stomach and esophageal cancer are imposing huge threats to the health of Chinese people whereas there were few studies on the financial burden of the two cancers. METHODS: Costs per hospitalization of all patients with stomach or esophageal cancer discharged between September 2015 and August 2016 in seven cities/counties in China were collected, together with their demographic information and clinical details. Former patients in the same hospitals were sampled to collect information on annual direct non-medical cost, indirect costs and annual number of hospitalization. Annual direct medical cost was obtained by multiplying cost per hospitalization by annual number of hospitalization. Annual cost of illness (ACI) was obtained by adding the average value of annual direct medical cost, direct non-medical cost and indirect cost, stratified by sex, age, clinical stage, therapy and pathologic type in urban and rural areas. Costs per hospitalization were itemized into eight parts to calculate the proportion of each part. All costs were converted to 2016 US dollars (1 USD=6.6423 RMB). RESULTS: Totally 19,986 cases were included, predominately male. Mean ages of stomach cancer and urban patients were lower than that of esophageal cancer and rural patients. ACI of stomach and esophageal cancer patients were $10,449 and $13,029 in urban areas, and $2,927 and $3,504 in rural areas, respectively. Greater ACI was associated with male, non-elderly patients as well as those who were in stage I and underwent surgeries. Western medicine fee took the largest proportion of cost per hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: The ACI of stomach and esophageal cancer was tremendous and varied substantially among the population in China. Preferential policies of medical insurance should be designed to tackle with this burden and further reduce the health care inequalities.

[Acceptance and willingness-to-pay for colorectal colonoscopy screening among high-risk populations for colorectal cancer in urban China].

OBJECTIVE: To survey the acceptance and willingness-to-pay for colorectal cancer colonoscopy screening among high risk populations in urban China. METHODS: From 2012 to 2013, a Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) was initiated in 9 provinces, the current survey was conducted among those participants who were evaluated as "high risk for colorectal cancer" by a risk-factor-evaluation-model (community-based) and then went through a colonoscopy screening procedure (hospital-based). All the data were obtained through a questionnaire-based interview (face-to-face or self-completed), mainly focusing on the acceptance and willingness-to-pay of the participants for colorectal colonoscopy screening. RESULTS: The current analysis included a total of 1 624 participants, with an median age of 55.0 years (P25 = 49.0, P75 = 61.0 years) and an annual income per capita of 17 thousand (range: 10-25 thousand) Chinese Yuan (CNY), 42.8% (695/1 624) of whom were males. Of all the participants, 87.0% (1 414/1 624) could totally or substantially accept the colonoscopy screening, particularly in those at higher education level (junior high school: OR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.22-0.52; high school OR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.26-0.66; college or over OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.20-0.59). Of all the participants, 13.0% (210/1 624) could not or hardly accept it, particularly in those with older age (60-69 years) (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.06-2.07), not in marriage (OR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.25-3.70) or with family member(s) to raise (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.17-2.20). 1 388 (85.5%) of all the participants had willingness-to-pay for a long-term colonoscopy screening service, particularly in those working in public (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.44-0.84) or enterprise sectors (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.38-0.94), but 82.3% (1 141/1 386) of whom would only pay less than 100 CNY; 14.5% (236/1 624) of total had no willingness-to-pay, particularly in those living in areas with moderate (OR = 4.08, 95% CI: 2.75-6.33) or high GDP per capita (OR = 3.26, 95% CI: 2.11-4.92), or with an absence of willingness-to-pay for colonoscopy screening (OR = 3.98, 95% CI: 2.81-5.65). CONCLUSIONS: Although a larger community-based colorectal cancer screening program was warranted to examine the extrapolation of these findings, it suggested that the acceptance for colorectal cancer colonoscopy screening among the selected high-risk populations was considerable. The willing-to-pay was relatively high but the amount of payment was limited, the indicated subgroups with potentially less acceptance or willingness need to be more focused in the future to reach a higher participation rate. The data will also be informative in integrating the screening service into the local health insurance system.

Development and validation of tumor-size-stratified prognostic nomograms for patients with uterine sarcoma: A SEER database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumor-size-stratified analysis on the prognosis of uterine sarcoma is insufficient. This study aimed to establish the tumor-size-stratified nomograms to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients with uterine sarcoma. METHODS: The data analyzed in this study were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We collected data from patients with uterine sarcoma diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. According to the median tumor size of 7.8 cm, the enrolled patients were divided into two tumor size (TS) groups: TS <7.8 cm and TS ≥7.8 cm. Patients in each group were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts with a ratio of 7:3. Chi-square test was used to compare differences between categorical variables. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify significant predictors. We calculated the concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) to validate the nomograms. RESULTS: Compared with TS <7.8 cm group, TS ≥7.8 cm group had more patients of 45-64 years group, higher black race prevalence, higher proportion of myometrium tumor, higher stage, and higher grade; In the TS <7.8 cm training cohort, six variables (age, race, marital status, tumor primary site, stage, and grade) were identified as significantly associated with OS in multivariate analysis. However in the TS ≥7.8 cm training cohort, only four variables (surgery on primary site, tumor size, stage, and grade) were significantly identified; The C-index of two nomograms were 0.80 and 0.73 in training cohorts, respectively, and the AUC values for 3- and 5-year OS predictions in training cohorts were all above 0.80. Similar results were observed in validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the significant prognostic factors were different between two tumor size groups of uterine sarcoma patients. The tumor-size-stratified nomograms, which we constructed and validated, might be useful to predict the probability of survival for patients with uterine sarcoma.

One-off low-dose CT screening of positive nodules in lung cancer: A prospective community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To improve the early stage diagnosis and reduce the lung cancer (LC) mortality for positive nodule (PN) population, data on effectiveness of PN detection using one-off low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) screening are needed to improve the PN management protocol. We evaluate the effectiveness of PN detection and developed a nomogram to predict LC risk for PNs. METHODS: A prospective, community-based cohort study was conducted. We recruited 292,531 eligible candidates during 2012-2018. Individuals at high risk of LC based on risk assessment underwent LDCT screening and were divided into PN and non-PN groups. The effectiveness of PN detection was evaluated in LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality. We performed subgroup analysis of characteristic variables for the association between PN and LC risk. A competing risk model was used to develop the nomogram. RESULTS: Participants (n = 14901) underwent LDCT screening; PNs were detected in 1193 cases (8·0%). After a median follow-up of 6·1 years, 193 were diagnosed with LC (1·3%). Of these, 94 were in the PN group (8·0%). LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality were significantly higher in the PN group (adjusted hazard ratios: 10.60 (7.91-14.20), 7.97 (5.20-12.20), and 1.94 (1.51-2.50), respectively). Additionally, various PN characteristics were associated with an increased probability of developing LC. The C-index value of the nomogram for predicting LC risk of PN individuals was 0·847. CONCLUSIONS: The protocol of PNs management for improvement could focus on specific characteristic population and high-risk PN individuals by nomogram assessment.

Projection of Premature Cancer Mortality in Hunan, China, Through 2030: Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions. METHODS: We used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030. RESULTS: The cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Existing targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

Clinicopathological and surgical comparisons of differentiated thyroid cancer between China and the USA: A multicentered hospital-based study.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC), was the fastest-rising tumor of all malignancies in the world and China, predominantly differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, evidence on TC stage distribution and influencing factors of late-stage were limited in China. Methods: We carried out a retrospective study and enrolled TC patients who were first diagnosed and hospitalized in 8 hospitals in China in 2017. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between influencing factors and DTC stage. We extracted eligible primary DTC records newly diagnosed in 2017 from the USA's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We compared clinicopathological features and surgical treatment between our DTC records and those from the SEER database. Results: A total of 1970 eligible patients were included, with 1861 DTC patients with known stage. Among patients ≥45 years old, males (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.17-2.65) and those with new rural cooperative medical scheme insurance (NCMS) (OR = 1.99, 95%CI 1.38-2.88) had higher risks of late-stage DTC (stage III-IV). Compared with SEER database, over-diagnosis is more common in China [more DTC patients with onset age< 45 years old (50.3 vs. 40.7%, P < 0.001), with early-stage (81.2 vs. 76.0%, P < 0.001), and with tumors<2cm (74.9 vs. 63.7%, P < 0.001)]. Compared with the USA, TC treatment is more conservative in China. The proportion of lobectomy in our database was significantly higher than that in the SEER database (41.3 vs. 17.0%, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Unique risk factors are found to be associated with late-stage DTC in China. The differences in the aspect of clinicopathological features and surgical approaches between China and the USA indicate that potential over-diagnosis and over-surgery exist, and disparities on surgery extent may need further consideration. The findings provided references for other countries with similar patterns.

Optimizing Positivity Thresholds for a Risk-Adapted Screening Strategy in Colorectal Cancer Screening.

INTRODUCTION: Risk-adapted screening combining the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score, fecal immunochemical test (FIT), and colonoscopy improved the yield of colorectal cancer screening than FIT. However, the optimal positivity thresholds of risk scoring and FIT of such a strategy warrant further investigation. METHODS: We included 3,407 participants aged 50-74 years undergoing colonoscopy from a colorectal cancer screening trial. For the risk-adapted screening strategy, subjects were referred for subsequent colonoscopy or FIT according to their risk scores. Diagnostic performance was evaluated for FIT and the risk-adapted screening method with various positivity thresholds. Furthermore, a modeled screening cohort was established to compare the yield and cost using colonoscopy, FIT, and the risk-adapted screening method in a single round of screening. RESULTS: Risk-adapted screening method had higher sensitivity for advanced neoplasm (AN) (27.6%-76.3% vs 13.8%-17.3%) but lower specificity (46.6%-90.8% vs 97.4%-98.8%) than FIT did. In a modeled screening cohort, FIT-based screening would be slightly affected because the threshold varied with a reduction of 76.0%-80.9% in AN detection and 82.0%-84.4% in cost when compared with colonoscopy. By contrast, adjusting the threshold of Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score from 3 to 5 points for risk-adapted screening varied from an increase of 12.6%-14.1% to a decrease of 55.6%-60.1% in AN detection, with the reduction of cost from 4.2%-5.3% rising to 66.4%-68.5%. DISCUSSION: With an appropriate positivity threshold tailored to clinical practice, the risk-adapted screening could save colonoscopy resources and cost compared with the colonoscopy-only and FIT-only strategies.

Results of the cancer screening feasibility study in China: a multicentered randomized controlled trial of lung and colorectal cancer screening.

Background: To provide an understanding of important aspects of the participant recruitment and data collection, become aware of any potential problems, and obtain necessary information in order to design a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) for lung cancer and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in China. Methods: This feasibility study was a multicentered, open-label, pilot randomized trial. A total of 2696 participants who were at high risk of lung cancer were recruited from three screening centers and randomly allocated to arm 1 (n = 894), annual low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) plus a baseline colonoscopy; arm 2 (n = 902), biennial LDCT plus annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) with OC-Sensor (OC-FIT); and arm 3 (n = 900), annual Insure-FIT plus Septin 9 blood test. Information on randomization, compliance, positivity rate, cancer case detection, and contamination with screening for lung cancer and CRC were collected. Results: Participant characteristics were similar across study arms. The compliance rate of annual LDCT screening in arm 1 was 86.4% (95% CI: 83.9%, 88.5%) at baseline (T0), and 69.0% (95% CI: 65.8%, 72.0%) and 70.7% (95% CI: 67.6%, 73.7%) at the following two rounds (T1 and T2). The compliance rates of biennial LDCT screening in arm 2 were similar to those in arm 1 in the corresponding rounds. The compliance rate was 55.5% (95% CI: 52.2%, 58.8%) for colonoscopy in arm 1, while the compliance rates of OC-FIT, Insure-FIT, and the Septin 9 test in arms 2 and 3 were all approximately 90% at T0, decreasing to 65%-80% at T1 and T2. The positivity rate, cancer case detection rate, and contamination rate of screening for lung cancer and CRC were also reported. Conclusion: In this pilot study, the feasibility of an RCT in China of lung cancer and CRC screening was demonstrated.

Menstrual factors, reproductive history, and risk of lung cancer: a multi-center population-based cohort study in Chinese females.

BACKGROUND: Female menstrual and reproductive factors, as remarkable indicators of hormone effect, were hypothesized to be associated with lung cancer risk, whereas the existed epidemiological evidence was inconsistent. Our study aims to investigate the association between menstrual and reproductive factors and lung cancer risk based on the Chinese Lung Cancer Screening Program. METHODS: This study was based on a large-scale multi-center population cohort across China recruiting individuals aged 40-74 years old between 2013-2018. Cox regression model was applied to estimate the HRs and 95% CIs. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was used to estimate dose-response relationships and test for nonlinear associations. RESULTS: Among 553,434 female participants, 1,529 incident lung cancer cases were identified with a median follow-up of 3.61 years. With adjustment for multiple covariates and all significant hormonal factors, elevated lung cancer risk was associated with later age (15, or ≥16 years) at menarche (HR =1.27, 95% CI: 1.04-1.56; HR =1.45, 95% CI: 1.19-1.76), later age (25-29, or ≥30 years) at first live birth (HR =1.27, 95% CI: 1.13-1.43; HR =1.23, 95% CI: 1.00-1.51), and benign breast disease history (HR =1.25, 95% CI: 1.10-1.41). For postmenopausal females specifically, surgical menopause (HR =1.62; 95% CI: 1.29-2.05) and other surgeries on the reproductive system (HR =1.19; 95% CI: 1.01-1.40) both appeared to be predictive of elevated lung cancer risk. Concerning age at menopause, a nonlinear association was observed (P-nonlinear =0.0126). Increased lung cancer risk was observed among females with age at menopause especially above 50. Although we observed no significant associations between longer time (≥13 months) of breastfeeding and lung cancer risk among all participants (HR =0.86; 95% CI: 0.71-1.04), significant decreased adenocarcinoma risk (HR =0.65; 95% CI: 0.53-0.81) was noted among nonsmoking females. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add some support for the role of menstrual and reproductive factors in lung carcinogenesis. However, these relationships were complex, and required further investigations addressing the biological mechanisms.

Development and external validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions in a non-high-incidence area.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions (UGPL) is the major preventable disease in non-high-incidence area. A prognostic nomogram was constructed to predict and identity susceptible population of UGPL before endoscope screening. METHODS: We recruited 300 ,016 eligible participants for upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) screening aged 40-74 years from two cities in Hunan province from 2012 to 2019. Individuals at high risk of UGC on basis of questionnaire estimation underwent endoscopic screening. Participants in two cities accepting endoscopy were used as training and external validation cohorts, respectively. A nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors of UGPL determined in multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 35, 621 with high risk for UGC, 10, 364 subjects undertook endoscopy (participation rate of 29.1%). The detection rate for UGPL was 4.55%. The nomogram showed that age, gender, mental trama, picked food, and atrophic gastritis history in a descending order were significant contributors to UGPL risk. The C-index value of internal and external validation of the model is 0.612 and 0.670, respectively. The calibration data for UGPL showed optimal agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. Furthermore, high-risk and low-risk group divided based on score from the nomogram predicted a significantly distinct detection rate. CONCLUSION: The nomogram provides screening workers a simple and accurate tool for identifying individuals at a higher risk of UGPL as primary screening before endoscopy among Chinese population in non-high-risk areas, thus reducing the incidence of UGC by improving the UGPL detection.