The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.

Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.

Maternal lipids are associated with newborn adiposity, independent of GDM status, obesity and insulin resistance: a prospective observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between maternal lipaemia and neonatal anthropometrics in Malaysian mother-offspring pairs. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Single tertiary multidisciplinary antenatal clinic in Malaysia. POPULATION: A total of 507 mothers: 145 with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); 94 who were obese with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) (pre-gravid body mass index, BMI ≥ 27.5 kg/m2 ), and 268 who were not obese with NGT. METHODS: Maternal demographic, anthropometric, and clinical data were collected during an interview/examination using a structured questionnaire. Blood was drawn for insulin, C-peptide, triglyceride (Tg), and non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) during the 75-g 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) screening, and again at 36 weeks of gestation. At birth, neonatal anthropometrics were assessed and data such as gestational weight gain (GWG) were extracted from the records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Macrosomia, large-for-gestational-age (LGA) status, cohort-specific birthweight (BW), neonatal fat mass (NFM), and sum of skinfold thickness (SSFT) > 90th centile. RESULTS: Fasting Tg > 95th centile (3.6 mmol/L) at screening for OGTT was independently associated with LGA (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 10.82, 95% CI 1.26-93.37) after adjustment for maternal glucose, pre-gravid BMI, and insulin sensitivity. Fasting glucose was independently associated with a birthweight ratio (BWR) of >90th centile (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.17-3.64), but not with LGA status, in this well-treated GDM cohort with pre-delivery HbA1c of 5.27%. In all, 45% of mothers had a pre-gravid BMI of <23 kg/m2 and 61% had a pre-gravid BMI of ≤ 25 kg/m2 , yet a GWG of >10 kg was associated with a 4.25-fold risk (95% CI 1.71-10.53) of BWR > 90th centile. CONCLUSION: Maternal lipaemia and GWG at a low threshold (>10 kg) adversely impact neonatal adiposity in Asian offspring, independent of glucose, insulin resistance and pre-gravid BMI. These may therefore be important modifiable metabolic targets in pregnancy. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Maternal lipids are associated with adiposity in Asian babies independently of pre-gravid BMI, GDM status, and insulin resistance.

Continuous glucose monitoring results in lower HbA1c in Malaysian women with insulin-treated gestational diabetes: a randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To determine if therapeutic, retrospective continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) improves HbA1c with less hypoglycaemia in women with insulin-treated gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: This prospective, randomized controlled, open-label trial evaluated 50 women with insulin-treated GDM randomized to either retrospective CGM (6-day sensor) at 28, 32 and 36 weeks' gestation (Group 1, CGM, n = 25) or usual antenatal care without CGM (Group 2, control, n = 25). All women performed seven-point capillary blood glucose (CBG) profiles at least 3 days per week and recorded hypoglycaemic events (symptomatic and asymptomatic CBG < 3.5 mmol/l; non-fasting < 4.0 mmol/l). HbA1c was measured at 28, 33 and 37 weeks. In Group 1, both CGM and CBG data were used to manage diabetes, whereas mothers in Group 2 were managed based on CBG data alone. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics (age, pre-pregnancy BMI, HbA1c , total insulin dose) were similar between groups. There was a lower increase in HbA1c from 28 to 37 weeks' gestation in the CGM group [∆HbA1c : CGM + 1 mmol/mol (0.09%), control + 3mmol/mol (0.30%); P = 0.024]. Mean HbA1c remained unchanged throughout the trial in the CGM group, but increased significantly in controls as pregnancy advanced. Mean HbA1c in the CGM group was lower at 37 weeks compared with controls [33 ± 4 mmol/mol (5.2 ± 0.4%) vs. 38 ± 7 mmol/mol (5.6 ± 0.6%), P < 0.006]. Some 92% of the CGM group achieved an HbA1c ≤ 39 mmol/mol (≤ 5.8%) at 37 weeks compared with 68% of the control group (P = 0.012). Neither group experienced severe hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSION: CGM use may be beneficial in insulin-treated GDM because it improves HbA1c compared with usual antenatal care without increasing severe hypoglycaemia. (Clinical Trials Registry No.: NCT02204657).

Hypothalamic pituitary dysfunction amongst nasopharyngeal cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: Radiation fields for nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) include the base of skull, which places the hypothalamus and pituitary at risk of damage. We aimed to establish the prevalence, pattern and severity of hypothalamic pituitary (HP) dysfunction amongst NPC survivors. METHODS: We studied 50 patients (31 males) with mean age 57 ± 12.2 years who had treatment for NPC between 3 and 21 years (median 8 years) without pre-existing HP disorder from other causes. All patients had a baseline cortisol, fT4, TSH, LH, FSH, oestradiol/testosterone, prolactin and renal function. All patients underwent dynamic testing with insulin tolerance test to assess the somatotroph and corticotroph axes. Baseline blood measurements were used to assess thyrotroph, gonadotroph and lactotroph function. RESULTS: Hypopituitarism was present in 82% of patients, 30% single axis, 28% two axes, 18% three axes and 6% four axes deficiencies. Somatotroph deficiency was most common (78%) while corticotroph, gonadotroph and thyrotroph deficiencies were noted in 40% (4 complete/16 partial), 22 and 4% of the patients respectively. Hyperprolactinaemia was present in 30% of patients. The development of HP dysfunction was significantly associated with the time elapsed from irradiation, OR 2.5 (1.2, 5.3), p = 0.02, for every 2 years post treatment. The use of concurrent chemo-irradiation (CCRT) compared to those who had radiotherapy alone was also significantly associated with HP dysfunction, OR 14.5 (2.4, 87.7), p < 0.01. CONCLUSION: Despite low awareness and detection rates, HP dysfunction post-NPC irradiation is common. Use of CCRT may augment time related pituitary damage. As these endocrinopathies result in significant morbidity and mortality we recommend periodic assessment of pituitary function amongst NPC survivors.

Indicators of dental anxiety in children just prior to treatment.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the relationship between child dental anxiety and selected child and parental characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: Children and their parents were interviewed at the New York University, College of Dentistry, Pediatric Dentistry Clinic. The Children's Fear Survey Schedule - Dental Subscale (CFSS-DS) evaluated child self-reported anxiety; the Modified Dental Anxiety Scale (MDAS) measured self-reported parental anxiety when the parent received dental treatment. RESULTS: Ninety-three children and their parents completed the questionnaires. Mean CFSS-DS scores were higher for girls than boys (32.5 vs. 26.3, p=0.003) and for children whose accompanying parents had MDAS scores of 11+ vs. ≥ 11 (32.8 vs. 26.6, p=0.001). There was little difference in mean CFSS-DS scores among those aged 6-10 yrs. vs. 11-14 yrs. (30.1 vs. 29.3). Significant correlations were found between CFSS-DS and both gender (Spearman's rho, rs=0.31) and MDAS scores (rs=0.33), but not between CFSS-DS and child age (rs=-0.05). Controlling simultaneously for gender, MDAS score and child age, a high CFSS-DS score (38+ vs. ≥ 38) was positively associated with girls (ORadj=3.76, 95% CI: 1.13-12.54) and an MDAS score of ≤ 15 vs. ≥ 11 (ORadj=2.50, 0.73-8.54), but weakly and inversely associated with age (ORadj=0.80, 0.25-2.52). CONCLUSION: Child gender and parental anxiety are indicators of child dental anxiety.

Childhood adrenocortical carcinoma as a sentinel cancer for detecting families with germline TP53 mutations.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a highly penetrant, autosomal dominant disorder where affected individuals carry a 50% risk of developing cancer before 30 years of age. It is most commonly associated with mutations in the tumour suppressor gene, TP53. Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a very rare paediatric cancer, and up to 80% of affected children are found to carry germline TP53 mutations. Hence, we propose using childhood ACC incidence as selection criteria for referral for TP53 mutation testing, independent of familial cancer history. Under the auspices of the Malaysian Society of Paediatric Haematology-Oncology, four eligible children diagnosed with ACC over a 30-month study period were referred for mutation testing. Three had a germline TP53 mutation. Subsequent TP53 testing in relatives showed two inherited mutations and one de novo mutation. These findings strongly support paediatric ACC as a useful sentinel cancer for initiating a germline TP53/LFS detection programme, particularly in countries where the lack of structured oncogenetic practice precludes the identification of families with LFS features.

Validity of self-reported abdominal obesity in Thai adults: a comparison of waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-stature ratio.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR), being common proxy measures of abdominal obesity, are useful tools in epidemiologic studies, but little is known about their validity when the indices are derived from self-reported measurements. We determine and compare the validity of self-reported WC, WHR and WSR in order to identify the optimal index for use in epidemiologic surveys. METHODS AND RESULTS: Technician- and self-reported measurements of height, waist and hip circumference were obtained from 613 Thai adults (mean age 35 years). Regarding technician-reported measurements as reference, diagnostic test properties were derived and performances of the indices compared using receiver-operator-characteristic curves and the area-under-the-curve (AUC) analyses. There was good agreement between technician- and self-reported measurements for WC and WSR (concordance correlation coefficients ranged from 0.84 to 0.90) but not for WHR (0.50 in men, 0.45 in women). The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported WC and self-reported WSR as measures of abdominal obesity were superior to those of self-reported WHR in both sexes. AUCs for WC and WSR were comparable (0.93 and 0.92, respectively, in men; 0.88 and 0.87 in women) and significantly higher than for WHR (0.80 in men; 0.76 in women; p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: WC and WSR derived from self-reported waist and height measurements are valid methods for determining abdominal obesity. Self-reported measurements should not be used to derive the WHR. In Asian populations, WSR may be the optimal index of abdominal obesity when measurements are derived from self-reports in epidemiologic surveys.

Urgent endoscopy is associated with lower mortality in high-risk but not low-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The role of urgent endoscopy in high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) performed sooner than the currently recommended 24 h in high-risk patients presenting with NVUGIB is associated with lower all-cause in-hospital mortality. METHODS: All adult patients undergoing EGD for the indications of coffee-grounds vomitus, hematemesis or melena at a university hospital over an 18-month period were enrolled. Patients with variceal and lower gastrointestinal bleeding were excluded. Data were prospectively collected. RESULTS: A total of 934 patients were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) was 0.813 for predicting all-cause in-hospital mortality, with a cut-off score of ≥ 12 resulting in 90 % specificity. In low-risk patients with GBS < 12, presentation-to-endoscopy time in those who died and in those who survived was similar. In high-risk patients with GBS of ≥ 12, presentation-to-endoscopy time was significantly longer in those who died than in those who survived. Multivariate analysis of the high-risk cohort showed presentation-to-endoscopy time to be the only factor associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality. For high-risk patients, the AUROC for presentation-to-endoscopy time in predicting all-cause in-hospital mortality was 0.803, with a sensitivity of 100 % at the cut-off time of 13 h. All-cause in-hospital mortality in high-risk patients was significantly higher in those with presentation-to-endoscopy time of > 13 h compared with those undergoing endoscopy in < 13 h from presentation (44 % vs. 0 %; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopy within 13 h of presentation was associated with lower mortality in high-risk but not low-risk NVUGIB.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation.

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO2 emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO2 emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m-2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m-2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2-14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3-4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO2 on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO2 effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a 'hydrogen economy' develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO2 impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.

Recurrent lower gastrointestinal bleeding secondary to cytomegalovirus-associated colonic ulcer in a non human immunodeficiency virus infected patient: timely diagnosis and treatment averted surgery.

Mr C, a 68-year-old Chinese male with diabetes mellitus, previous stroke and ischaemic cardiomyopathy on clopidogrel, presented with haematochezia. Colonoscopy showed a sigmoid ulcer, which was treated endoscopically. Histology of the biopsy from the ulcer revealed non-specific changes. However, he presented with recurrent bleeding from this non-healing sigmoid ulcer. A review of the histologic specimen revealed CMV intranuclear inclusion bodies. He was treated with intravenous ganciclovir, with no further hematochezia.

Increased atherosclerosis in myeloperoxidase-deficient mice.

Myeloperoxidase (MPO), a heme enzyme secreted by activated phagocytes, generates an array of oxidants proposed to play critical roles in host defense and local tissue damage. Both MPO and its reaction products are present in human atherosclerotic plaque, and it has been proposed that MPO oxidatively modifies targets in the artery wall. We have now generated MPO-deficient mice, and show here that neutrophils from homozygous mutants lack peroxidase and chlorination activity in vitro and fail to generate chlorotyrosine or to kill Candida albicans in vivo. To examine the potential role of MPO in atherosclerosis, we subjected LDL receptor-deficient mice to lethal irradiation, repopulated their marrow with MPO-deficient or wild-type cells, and provided them a high-fat, high-cholesterol diet for 14 weeks. White cell counts and plasma lipoprotein profiles were similar between the two groups at sacrifice. Cross-sectional analysis of the aorta indicated that lesions in MPO-deficient mice were about 50% larger than controls. Similar results were obtained in a genetic cross with LDL receptor-deficient mice. In contrast to advanced human atherosclerotic lesions, the chlorotyrosine content of aortic lesions from wild-type as well as MPO-deficient mice was essentially undetectable. These data suggest an unexpected, protective role for MPO-generated reactive intermediates in murine atherosclerosis. They also identify an important distinction between murine and human atherosclerosis with regard to the potential involvement of MPO in protein oxidation.

Hypopituitarism in a Dengue Shock Syndrome Survivor without known Pituitary Adenoma.

Dengue infection is endemic in South East Asia and parts of the Americas. Dengue hemorrhagic fever is characterized by vascular permeability, coagulation-disorders and thrombocytopenia, which can culminate in hypotension i.e. dengue shock syndrome. Hypopituitarism arising as a complication of dengue is extremely rare. Hemorrhagic pituitary apoplexy of pre-existing pituitary adenomas has been rarely reported in dengue. We describe an uncommon case of hypopituitarism in a dengue shock syndrome survivor without known pituitary adenoma. A 49 years old nulliparous lady (from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia) presented with typical symptoms of hypocortisolism. Postural hypotension was evident with normal secondary sexual characteristics. Further history revealed that she survived an episode of dengue shock syndrome 6 years ago where premature menopause developed immediately after discharge, and subsequently insidious onset of multiple hormonal deficiencies indicative of panhypopituitarism. There were no neuro-ophthalmological symptoms suggestive of pituitary apoplexy during hospitalization for severe dengue. Magnetic resonance imaging of the pituitary 6 years later revealed an empty sella. Autoimmune screen and anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies were negative. We describe a rare possible causative association of severe dengue with panhypopituitarism without known pituitary adenoma, postulating pituitary infarction secondary to hypotension (mimicking Sheehan's syndrome), or a direct viral cytopathic effect. Subclinical pituitary apoplexy secondary to asymptomatic pituitary hemorrhage however cannot be excluded. Future research is required to determine the need for and timing of pituitary axis assessment among dengue shock syndrome survivors.

Recovery of precious metals by an electrochemical deposition method.

Conversion of soluble precious metals into a solid form for further reuse was studied by using an electrochemical deposition approach. It was found that the metal recovery followed a first-order reaction kinetics. The distance between the electrodes had no much impact on the recovery, while higher mixing led to faster kinetics. The presence of humic acid (HA) with lower concentration (<20mg l (-1)) did not have impact on the recovery. When its concentration was increased to 50 mg l (-1), it decreased the metal reduction. Presence of ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA) and ionic strength slightly reduced the copper recovery rate. Around 50% removal of for HA and EDTA was achieved. In the competing environment, metal recovery was in the following order: silver>lead>copper. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic and scanning electronic microscopic analysis of the reduced metals demonstrated that the depositions were composed of mainly elemental metals together with their oxides which were due to the oxidation.

Prophylactic lamivudine prevents hepatitis B reactivation in chemotherapy patients.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B virus carriers receiving chemotherapy develop a high hepatitis B virus reactivation rate (38-53%) with a high mortality (37-60%). Few studies have characterized the efficacy of lamivudine in the treatment of chemotherapy-induced hepatitis B virus reactivation. AIM: To determine whether lamivudine prophylaxis reduces chemotherapy-induced hepatitis B virus reactivation and mortality. METHODS: The medical records of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive patients with malignancy treated with chemotherapy since 1995 at the National University Hospital of Singapore were identified, and divided into those who received lamivudine prophylaxis before chemotherapy (P) and those who did not (NP). The parameters examined included gender, age, malignancy type, steroid usage, number of chemotherapy courses and regimens, follow-up duration and hepatitis B virus status. The outcome measures were hepatitis B virus reactivation (abrupt rise of serum alanine aminotransferase to > 200 IU/L) and reactivation death. Patients with primary hepatoma or liver metastasis were excluded. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients were identified: 16 in the P group and 19 in the NP group. The baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. Seven of the 19 patients in the NP group and none of the 16 patients in the P group developed reactivation (36.8% vs. 0%, P=0.009). Six of the seven patients in the NP group who developed reactivation received lamivudine at that time, but five died (mortality, 71.4%), whilst no patient in the P group died from reactivation (P=0.064). CONCLUSIONS: Prophylactic lamivudine appears to prevent hepatitis B virus reactivation and its associated mortality in patients treated with chemotherapy. This should be confirmed with prospective studies.

Accuracy of administrative data to assess comorbidity in patients with heart disease. an Australian perspective.

The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of administrative data (by use of hospital discharge codes) for measuring comorbidity in patients with heart disease. One thousand seven hundred and sixty-five medical records of subjects admitted to hospital for AMI, unstable angina, angina pectoris, chronic IHD or heart failure were reviewed. The number and types of comorbidities were determined from the medical records (regarded as the "gold standard"). These were compared with the 10 discharge codes obtained from the hospital administrative records (referred to as the "administrative data"). The rate of false-negative and false-positive comorbidity diagnoses were determined. Twenty of the 21 comorbidities studied were underreported in the administrative data. For these 20 comorbidities, the median false-negative rate was 49.5% and ranged from 11% for diabetes to 100% for dementia. False-positive rates were low, less than 1.5%, except for chronic arrythmia (4.8%) and hypertension (4.2%). Mean percent agreement was high, ranging from 88% for hypertension to 100% for AIDS/HIV. Administrative data based on hospital discharge codes consistently underestimate the presence of comorbid conditions in our population. This has implications for administrators when estimating mortality, length of stay and disability. Researchers also need to be aware when using administrative data based on hospital discharge codes to assess subject's comorbidities that they may be widely underreported.

Quality of life: an index for identifying high-risk cardiac patients.

A sample of 945 cardiac patients admitted under emergency conditions completed a quality of life questionnaire 4 months post-discharge. Half (471) were randomly allocated to a group used to develop a logistic regression model to predict mortality and cardiovascular morbidity 8 months later. Age 65-85 years, ever having heart failure, experiencing another cardiovascular event since discharge, and low global quality of life (QOL) score were found to be predictive of these outcomes; an interaction between QOL and heart failure was also found. The model was used to formulate a risk index which was validated in the remaining 474 patients. The index defines four levels of increasing risk of adverse outcomes, with rates in the development and validation groups, respectively, of: low risk 4% and 9%; moderate risk 13% and 15%; high risk 31% and 33%; very high risk 52% and 40%. Scores in the emotional, physical and social QOL domains were also found to be predictive of adverse outcomes, suggesting that interventions in any of these areas may prove beneficial. The index may be useful for follow-up evaluation of cardiac patients.

A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke.

The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5 degrees C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted

Where do developing World clinicians obtain evidence for practice: a case study on pneumonia.

There are few data on the practice of evidence based medicine in the developing world, nor on the actual sources of evidence that clinicians use in practice. To test the hypothesis that there was variation between and within developing countries in the proposed management of a patient with hospital acquired pneumonia, and that part of the variation can be explained by the sources of evidence used. Questionnaire responses to hypothetical case history. Investigators from 6 centres within the International Clinical Epidemiology Network (INCLEN) in China, Thailand, India, Egypt, and Kenya. Doctors chosen to represent primary and secondary hospital practice in the regions of the study centres. Investigations and initial treatments which would be ordered for a hypothetical 60-year-old woman who develops pneumonia 5 days after hospital admission, whether local data on antibiotic sensitivities are available and where information would be obtained to guide management. Chest x-ray and sputum gram stain/culture were consistently the most commonly ordered investigations, there being much greater variation in the initial treatment choices with either penicillin, a third-generation cephalosporin or aminoglycoside being the most popular choice. Textbooks were the commonest form of information source, and access to a library, textbooks and journals were statistically significantly associated with appropriate choice of investigations, but not treatment. Access to local antibiotic sensitivities was associated with appropriate initial treatment choice. Improving access to information in the literature and to local data may increase the practice of evidence-based medicine in the developing world.