Atmospheric escape from the TRAPPIST-1 planets and implications for habitability.

The presence of an atmosphere over sufficiently long timescales is widely perceived as one of the most prominent criteria associated with planetary surface habitability. We address the crucial question of whether the seven Earth-sized planets transiting the recently discovered ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 are capable of retaining their atmospheres. To this effect, we carry out numerical simulations to characterize the stellar wind of TRAPPIST-1 and the atmospheric ion escape rates for all of the seven planets. We also estimate the escape rates analytically and demonstrate that they are in good agreement with the numerical results. We conclude that the outer planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system are capable of retaining their atmospheres over billion-year timescales. The consequences arising from our results are also explored in the context of abiogenesis, biodiversity, and searches for future exoplanets. In light of the many unknowns and assumptions involved, we recommend that these conclusions must be interpreted with due caution.

Enhanced interplanetary panspermia in the TRAPPIST-1 system.

We present a simple model for estimating the probability of interplanetary panspermia in the recently discovered system of seven planets orbiting the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 and find that panspermia is potentially orders of magnitude more likely to occur in the TRAPPIST-1 system compared with the Earth-to-Mars case. As a consequence, we argue that the probability of abiogenesis is enhanced on the TRAPPIST-1 planets compared with the solar system. By adopting models from theoretical ecology, we show that the number of species transferred and the number of life-bearing planets are also likely to be higher because of the increased rates of immigration. We propose observational metrics for evaluating whether life was initiated by panspermia on multiple planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system. These results are also applicable to habitable exoplanets and exomoons in other planetary systems.

Information Transmission via Molecular Communication in Astrobiological Environments.

The ubiquity of information transmission via molecular communication between cells is comprehensively documented on Earth; this phenomenon might even have played a vital role in the origin(s) and early evolution of life. Motivated by these considerations, a simple model for molecular communication entailing the diffusion of signaling molecules from transmitter to receiver is elucidated. The channel capacity C (maximal rate of information transmission) and an optimistic heuristic estimate of the actual information transmission rate ℐ are derived for this communication system; the two quantities, especially the latter, are demonstrated to be broadly consistent with laboratory experiments and more sophisticated theoretical models. The channel capacity exhibits a potentially weak dependence on environmental parameters, whereas the actual information transmission rate may scale with the intercellular distance d as ℐ ∝ d-4 and could vary substantially across settings. These two variables are roughly calculated for diverse astrobiological environments, ranging from Earth's upper oceans (C ∼ 3.1 × 103 bits/s; ℐ ∼ 4.7 × 10-2 bits/s) and deep sea hydrothermal vents (C ∼ 4.2 × 103 bits/s; ℐ ∼ 1.2 × 10-1 bits/s) to the hydrocarbon lakes and seas of Titan (C ∼ 3.8 × 103 bits/s; ℐ ∼ 2.6 × 10-1 bits/s).

A Bayesian Analysis of the Probability of the Origin of Life Per Site Conducive to Abiogenesis.

The emergence of life from nonlife, or abiogenesis, remains a fundamental question in scientific inquiry. In this article, we investigate the probability of the origin of life (per conducive site) by leveraging insights from Earth's environments. If life originated endogenously on Earth, its existence is indeed endowed with informative value, although the interpretation of the attendant significance hinges critically upon prior assumptions. By adopting a Bayesian framework, for an agnostic prior, we establish a direct connection between the number of potential locations for abiogenesis on Earth and the probability of life's emergence per site. Our findings suggest that constraints on the availability of suitable environments for the origin(s) of life on Earth may offer valuable insights into the probability of abiogenesis and the frequency of life in the universe.

Planetary Scale Information Transmission in the Biosphere and Technosphere: Limits and Evolution.

Information transmission via communication between agents is ubiquitous on Earth, and is a vital facet of living systems. In this paper, we aim to quantify this rate of information transmission associated with Earth's biosphere and technosphere (i.e., a measure of global information flow) by means of a heuristic order-of-magnitude model. By adopting ostensibly conservative values for the salient parameters, we estimate that the global information transmission rate for the biosphere might be ∼1024 bits/s, and that it may perhaps exceed the corresponding rate for the current technosphere by ∼9 orders of magnitude. However, under the equivocal assumption of sustained exponential growth, we find that information transmission in the technosphere can potentially surpass that of the biosphere ∼90 years in the future, reflecting its increasing dominance.

The Possible Role of Body Temperature in Modulating Brain and Body Sizes in Hominin Evolution.

Many models have posited that the concomitant evolution of large brains and body sizes in hominins was constrained by metabolic costs. In such studies, the impact of body temperature has arguably not been sufficiently addressed despite the well-established fact that the rates of most physiological processes are manifestly temperature-dependent. Hence, the potential role of body temperature in regulating the number of neurons and body size is investigated by means of a heuristic quantitative model. It is suggested that modest deviations in body temperature (i.e., by a couple of degrees Celsius) might allow for substantive changes in brain and body parameters. In particular, a higher body temperature may prove amenable to an increased number of neurons, a higher brain-to-body mass ratio and fewer hours expended on feeding activities, while the converse could apply when the temperature is lowered. Future studies should, therefore, endeavor to explore and incorporate the effects of body temperature in metabolic theories of hominin evolution, while also integrating other factors such as foraging efficiency, diet, and fire control in tandem.

Theoretical Constraints Imposed by Gradient Detection and Dispersal on Microbial Size in Astrobiological Environments.

The capacity to sense gradients efficiently and acquire information about the ambient environment confers many advantages such as facilitating movement toward nutrient sources or away from toxic chemicals. The amplified dispersal evinced by organisms endowed with motility is possibly beneficial in related contexts. Hence, the connections between information acquisition, motility, and microbial size are explored from an explicitly astrobiological standpoint. By using prior theoretical models, the constraints on organism size imposed by gradient detection and motility are elucidated in the form of simple heuristic scaling relations. It is argued that environments such as alkaline hydrothermal vents, which are distinguished by the presence of steep gradients, might be conducive to the existence of "small" microbes (with radii of ≳0.1 µm) in principle, when only the above two factors are considered; other biological functions (e.g., metabolism and genetic exchange) could, however, regulate the lower bound on microbial size and elevate it. The derived expressions are potentially applicable to a diverse array of settings, including those entailing solvents other than water; for example, the lakes and seas of Titan. The article concludes with a brief exposition of how this formalism may be of practical and theoretical value to astrobiology.

Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life.

We estimate the relative likelihood of success in the searches for primitive versus intelligent life on other planets. Taking into account the larger search volume for detectable artificial electromagnetic signals, we conclude that both searches should be performed concurrently, albeit with significantly more funding dedicated to primitive life. Based on the current federal funding allocated to the search for biosignatures, our analysis suggests that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) may merit a federal funding level of at least $10 million per year, assuming that the average lifetime of technological species exceeds a millennium.

Implications of Tides for Life on Exoplanets.

As evident from the nearby examples of Proxima Centauri and TRAPPIST-1, Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone of low-mass stars are common. Here, we focus on such planetary systems and argue that their (oceanic) tides could be more prominent due to stronger tidal forces. We identify the conditions under which tides may exert a significant positive influence on biotic processes including abiogenesis, biological rhythms, nutrient upwelling, and stimulating photosynthesis. We conclude our analysis with the identification of large-scale algal blooms as potential temporal biosignatures in reflectance light curves that can arise indirectly as a consequence of strong tidal forces. Key Words: Tidal effects-Abiogenesis-Biological clocks-Planetary habitability-Temporal biosignatures. Astrobiology 18, 967-982.

Interstellar Travel and Galactic Colonization: Insights from Percolation Theory and the Yule Process.

UNLABELLED: In this paper, percolation theory is employed to place tentative bounds on the probability p of interstellar travel and the emergence of a civilization (or panspermia) that colonizes the entire Galaxy. The ensuing ramifications with regard to the Fermi paradox are also explored. In particular, it is suggested that the correlation function of inhabited exoplanets can be used to observationally constrain p in the near future. It is shown, by using a mathematical evolution model known as the Yule process, that the probability distribution for civilizations with a given number of colonized worlds is likely to exhibit a power-law tail. Some of the dynamical aspects of this issue, including the question of timescales and generalizing percolation theory, were also studied. The limitations of these models, and other avenues for future inquiry, are also outlined. KEY WORDS: Complex life-Extraterrestrial life-Panspermia-Life detection-SETI. Astrobiology 16, 418-426.