Measuring homoplasy I: comprehensive measures of maximum and minimum cost under parsimony across discrete cost matrix character types.

Here, we propose, prove mathematically and discuss maximum and minimum measures of maximum parsimony evolution across 12 discrete phylogenetic character types, classified across 4467 morphological and molecular datasets. Covered character types are: constant, binary symmetric, multistate unordered (non-additive) symmetric, multistate linear ordered symmetric, multistate non-linear ordered symmetric, binary irreversible, multistate irreversible, binary Dollo, multistate Dollo, multistate custom symmetric, binary custom asymmetric and multistate custom asymmetric characters. We summarize published solutions and provide and prove a range of new formulae for the algebraic calculation of minimum (m), maximum (g) and maximum possible (gmax) character cost for applicable character types. Algorithms for exhaustive calculation of m, g and gmax applicable to all classified character types (within computational limits on the numbers of taxa and states) are also provided. The general algorithmic solution for minimum steps (m) is identical to a minimum spanning tree on the state graph or minimum weight spanning arborescence on the state digraph. Algorithmic solutions for character g and gmax are based on matrix mathematics equivalent to optimization on the star tree, respectively for given state frequencies and all possible state frequencies meeting specified numbers of taxa and states. We show that maximizing possible cost (gmax) with given transition costs can be equivalent to maximizing, across all possible state frequency combinations, the lowest implied cost of state transitions if any one state is ancestral on the star tree, via the solution of systems of linear equations. The methods we present, implemented in the Claddis R package, extend to a comprehensive range, the fundamental character types for which homoplasy may be measured under parsimony using m, g and gmax, including extra cost (h), consistency index (ci), retention index (ri) or indices based thereon.

Extant species fail to estimate ancestral geographical ranges at older nodes in primate phylogeny.

A clade's evolutionary history is shaped, in part, by geographical range expansion, sweepstakes dispersal and local extinction. A rigorous understanding of historical biogeography may therefore yield insights into macroevolutionary dynamics such as adaptive radiation. Modern historical biogeographic analyses typically fit statistical models to molecular phylogenies, but it remains unclear whether extant species provide sufficient signal or if well-sampled phylogenies of extinct and extant taxa are necessary to produce meaningful estimates of past ranges. We investigated the historical biogeography of Primates and their euarchontan relatives using a novel meta-analytical phylogeny of over 900 extant (n= 419) and extinct (n = 483) species spanning their entire evolutionary history. Ancestral range estimates for young nodes were largely congruent with those derived from molecular phylogeny. However, node age exerts a significant effect on ancestral range estimate congruence, and the probability of congruent inference dropped below 0.5 for nodes older than the late Eocene, corresponding to the origins of higher-level clades. Discordance was not observed in analyses of extinct taxa alone. Fossils are essential for robust ancestral range inference and biogeographic analyses of extant clades originating in the deep past should be viewed with scepticism without them.

A Total-Group Phylogenetic Metatree for Cetacea and the Importance of Fossil Data in Diversification Analyses.

Phylogenetic trees provide a powerful framework for testing macroevolutionary hypotheses, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that inferences derived from extant species alone can be highly misleading. Trees incorporating living and extinct taxa are needed to address fundamental questions about the origins of diversity and disparity but it has proved challenging to generate robust, species-rich phylogenies that include large numbers of fossil taxa. As a result, most studies of diversification dynamics continue to rely on molecular phylogenies. Here, we extend and apply a recently developed meta-analytic approach for synthesizing previously published phylogenetic studies to infer a well-resolved set of species level, time-scaled phylogenetic hypotheses for extinct and extant cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and allies). Our trees extend sampling from the $\sim 90$ extant species to over 500 living and extinct species, and therefore allow for more robust inference of macroevolutionary dynamics. While the diversification scenarios, we recover are broadly concordant with those inferred from molecular phylogenies they differ in critical ways, notably in the relative contributions of extinction and speciation rate shifts in driving rapid radiations. The metatree approach provides the most immediate route for generating higher level phylogenies of extinct taxa and opens the door to re-evaluation of macroevolutionary hypotheses derived only from extant taxa.[Extinction; macroevolution; matrix representation with parsimony; morphology; supertree.].

The patterns and modes of the evolution of disparity in Mesozoic birds.

The origin of birds from non-avian theropod dinosaurs is one of the greatest transitions in evolution. Shortly after diverging from other theropods in the Late Jurassic, Mesozoic birds diversified into two major clades-the Enantiornithes and Ornithuromorpha-acquiring many features previously considered unique to the crown group along the way. Here, we present a comparative phylogenetic study of the patterns and modes of Mesozoic bird skeletal morphology and limb proportions. Our results show that the major Mesozoic avian groups are distinctive in discrete character space, but constrained in a morphospace defined by limb proportions. The Enantiornithines, despite being the most speciose group of Mesozoic birds, are much less morphologically disparate than their sister clade, the Ornithuromorpha-the clade that gave rise to living birds, showing disparity and diversity were decoupled in avian history. This relatively low disparity suggests that diversification of enantiornithines was characterized in exhausting fine morphologies, whereas ornithuromorphs continuously explored a broader array of morphologies and ecological opportunities. We suggest this clade-specific evolutionary versatility contributed to their sole survival of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

Disparities in the analysis of morphological disparity.

Analyses of morphological disparity have been used to characterize and investigate the evolution of variation in the anatomy, function and ecology of organisms since the 1980s. While a diversity of methods have been employed, it is unclear whether they provide equivalent insights. Here, we review the most commonly used approaches for characterizing and analysing morphological disparity, all of which have associated limitations that, if ignored, can lead to misinterpretation. We propose best practice guidelines for disparity analyses, while noting that there can be no 'one-size-fits-all' approach. The available tools should always be used in the context of a specific biological question that will determine data and method selection at every stage of the analysis.

Near-Stasis in the Long-Term Diversification of Mesozoic Tetrapods.

How did evolution generate the extraordinary diversity of vertebrates on land? Zero species are known prior to ~380 million years ago, and more than 30,000 are present today. An expansionist model suggests this was achieved by large and unbounded increases, leading to substantially greater diversity in the present than at any time in the geological past. This model contrasts starkly with empirical support for constrained diversification in marine animals, suggesting different macroevolutionary processes on land and in the sea. We quantify patterns of vertebrate standing diversity on land during the Mesozoic-early Paleogene interval, applying sample-standardization to a global fossil dataset containing 27,260 occurrences of 4,898 non-marine tetrapod species. Our results show a highly stable pattern of Mesozoic tetrapod diversity at regional and local levels, underpinned by a weakly positive, but near-zero, long-term net diversification rate over 190 million years. Species diversity of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods less than doubled over this interval, despite the origins of exceptionally diverse extant groups within mammals, squamates, amphibians, and dinosaurs. Therefore, although speciose groups of modern tetrapods have Mesozoic origins, rates of Mesozoic diversification inferred from the fossil record are slow compared to those inferred from molecular phylogenies. If high speciation rates did occur in the Mesozoic, then they seem to have been balanced by extinctions among older clades. An apparent 4-fold expansion of species richness after the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary deserves further examination in light of potential taxonomic biases, but is consistent with the hypothesis that global environmental disturbances such as mass extinction events can rapidly adjust limits to diversity by restructuring ecosystems, and suggests that the gradualistic evolutionary diversification of tetrapods was punctuated by brief but dramatic episodes of radiation.

Little evidence for enhanced phenotypic evolution in early teleosts relative to their living fossil sister group.

Since Darwin, biologists have been struck by the extraordinary diversity of teleost fishes, particularly in contrast to their closest "living fossil" holostean relatives. Hypothesized drivers of teleost success include innovations in jaw mechanics, reproductive biology and, particularly at present, genomic architecture, yet all scenarios presuppose enhanced phenotypic diversification in teleosts. We test this key assumption by quantifying evolutionary rate and capacity for innovation in size and shape for the first 160 million y (Permian-Early Cretaceous) of evolution in neopterygian fishes (the more extensive clade containing teleosts and holosteans). We find that early teleosts do not show enhanced phenotypic evolution relative to holosteans. Instead, holostean rates and innovation often match or can even exceed those of stem-, crown-, and total-group teleosts, belying the living fossil reputation of their extant representatives. In addition, we find some evidence for heterogeneity within the teleost lineage. Although stem teleosts excel at discovering new body shapes, early crown-group taxa commonly display higher rates of shape evolution. However, the latter reflects low rates of shape evolution in stem teleosts relative to all other neopterygian taxa, rather than an exceptional feature of early crown teleosts. These results complement those emerging from studies of both extant teleosts as a whole and their sublineages, which generally fail to detect an association between genome duplication and significant shifts in rates of lineage diversification.

Diversity change during the rise of tetrapods and the impact of the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'.

The Carboniferous and early Permian were critical intervals in the diversification of early four-limbed vertebrates (tetrapods), yet the major patterns of diversity and biogeography during this time remain unresolved. Previous estimates suggest that global tetrapod diversity rose continuously across this interval and that habitat fragmentation following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse' (CRC) drove increased endemism among communities. However, previous work failed to adequately account for spatial and temporal biases in sampling. Here, we reassess early tetrapod diversity and biogeography with a new global species-level dataset using sampling standardization and network biogeography methods. Our results support a tight relationship between observed richness and sampling, particularly during the Carboniferous. We found that subsampled species richness initially increased into the late Carboniferous, then decreased substantially across the Carboniferous/Permian boundary before slowly recovering in the early Permian. Our analysis of biogeography does not support the hypothesis that the CRC drove endemism; instead, we found evidence for increased cosmopolitanism in the early Permian. While a changing environment may have played a role in reducing diversity in the earliest Permian, our results suggest that the CRC was followed by increased global connectivity between communities, possibly reflecting both reduced barriers to dispersal and the diversification of amniotes.

Modeling Character Change Heterogeneity in Phylogenetic Analyses of Morphology through the Use of Priors.

The Mk model was developed for estimating phylogenetic trees from discrete morphological data, whether for living or fossil taxa. Like any model, the Mk model makes a number of assumptions. One assumption is that transitions between character states are symmetric (i.e., the probability of changing from 0 to 1 is the same as 1 to 0). However, some characters in a data matrix may not satisfy this assumption. Here, we test methods for relaxing this assumption in a Bayesian context. Using empirical data sets, we perform model fitting to illustrate cases in which modeling asymmetric transition rates among characters is preferable to the standard Mk model. We use simulated data sets to demonstrate that choosing the best-fit model of transition-state symmetry can improve model fit and phylogenetic estimation.

Rates of morphological evolution are heterogeneous in Early Cretaceous birds.

The Early Cretaceous is a critical interval in the early history of birds. Exceptional fossils indicate that important evolutionary novelties such as a pygostyle and a keeled sternum had already arisen in Early Cretaceous taxa, bridging much of the morphological gap between Archaeopteryx and crown birds. However, detailed features of basal bird evolution remain obscure because of both the small sample of fossil taxa previously considered and a lack of quantitative studies assessing rates of morphological evolution. Here we apply a recently available phylogenetic method and associated sensitivity tests to a large data matrix of morphological characters to quantify rates of morphological evolution in Early Cretaceous birds. Our results reveal that although rates were highly heterogeneous between different Early Cretaceous avian lineages, consistent patterns of significantly high or low rates were harder to pinpoint. Nevertheless, evidence for accelerated evolutionary rates is strongest at the point when Ornithuromorpha (the clade comprises all extant birds and descendants from their most recent common ancestors) split from Enantiornithes (a diverse clade that went extinct at the end-Cretaceous), consistent with the hypothesis that this key split opened up new niches and ultimately led to greater diversity for these two dominant clades of Mesozoic birds.

Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs.

Whereas living representatives of Pseudosuchia, crocodylians, number fewer than 30 species, more than 700 pseudosuchian species are known from their 250-million-year fossil record, displaying far greater ecomorphological diversity than their extant counterparts. With a new time-calibrated tree of >500 species, we use a phylogenetic framework to reveal that pseudosuchian evolutionary history and diversification dynamics were directly shaped by the interplay of abiotic and biotic processes over hundreds of millions of years, supported by information theory analyses. Speciation, but not extinction, is correlated with higher temperatures in terrestrial and marine lineages, with high sea level associated with heightened extinction in non-marine taxa. Low lineage diversity and increased speciation in non-marine species is consistent with opportunities for niche-filling, whereas increased competition may have led to elevated extinction rates. In marine lineages, competition via increased lineage diversity appears to have driven both speciation and extinction. Decoupling speciation and extinction, in combination with ecological partitioning, reveals a more complex picture of pseudosuchian evolution than previously understood. As the number of species threatened with extinction by anthropogenic climate change continues to rise, the fossil record provides a unique window into the drivers that led to clade success and those that may ultimately lead to extinction.

Taxonomic structure of the fossil record is shaped by sampling bias.

Understanding biases that affect how species are partitioned into higher taxa is critical for much of paleobiology, as higher taxa are commonly used to estimate species diversity through time. We test the validity of using higher taxa as a proxy for species diversity for the first time by examining one of the best fossil records we have, that of deep-sea microfossils. Using a new, taxonomically standardized, data set of coccolithophorid species and genera recorded from 143 deep-sea drilling sites in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and Mediterranean, we show that there is a two-stepped change in the ratio of species to genera over the last 150 myr. This change is highly unexpected and correlates strongly with changes in both the number of deep-sea sites yielding coccolithophorids that have been studied and with the number of taxonomists who have published on those sections. The same pattern is present in both structurally complex heterococcoliths and the simpler nannoliths, suggesting that increasing complexity is not the driving factor. As a stepped species-to-genus ratio exists even after subsampling to standardize either the numbers of sites or numbers of papers, both factors must be contributing substantially to the observed pattern. Although some limited biological signature from major extinction events can be recognized from changes in the species-to-genus ratio, the numbers of sites and the numbers of taxonomists combined explain some 82% of the observed variation over long periods of geological time. Such a strong correlation argues against using raw species-to-genus ratios to infer biological processes without taking sampling into account and suggests that higher taxa cannot be taken as unbiased proxies for species diversity.

Derived faunivores are the forerunners of major synapsid radiations.

Evolutionary radiations generate most of Earth's biodiversity, but are there common ecomorphological traits among the progenitors of radiations? In Synapsida (the mammalian total group), 'small-bodied faunivore' has been hypothesized as the ancestral state of most major radiating clades, but this has not been quantitatively assessed across multiple radiations. To examine macroevolutionary patterns in a phylogenetic context, we generated a time-calibrated metaphylogeny ('metatree') comprising 1,888 synapsid species from the Carboniferous through the Eocene (305-34 Ma) based on 269 published character matrices. We used comparative methods to investigate body size and dietary evolution during successive synapsid radiations. Faunivory is the ancestral dietary regime of each major synapsid radiation, but relatively small body size is only established as the common ancestral state of radiations near the origin of Mammaliaformes in the Late Triassic. The faunivorous ancestors of synapsid radiations typically have numerous novel characters compared with their contemporaries, and these derived traits may have helped them to survive faunal turnover events and subsequently radiate.

Phanerozoic marine diversity: rock record modelling provides an independent test of large-scale trends.

Sampling bias created by a heterogeneous rock record can seriously distort estimates of marine diversity and makes a direct reading of the fossil record unreliable. Here we compare two independent estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversity that explicitly take account of variation in sampling-a subsampling approach that standardizes for differences in fossil collection intensity, and a rock area modelling approach that takes account of differences in rock availability. Using the fossil records of North America and Western Europe, we demonstrate that a modelling approach applied to the combined data produces results that are significantly correlated with those derived from subsampling. This concordance between independent approaches argues strongly for the reality of the large-scale trends in diversity we identify from both approaches.

A refined modelling approach to assess the influence of sampling on palaeobiodiversity curves: new support for declining Cretaceous dinosaur richness.

Modelling has been underdeveloped with respect to constructing palaeobiodiversity curves, but it offers an additional tool for removing sampling from their estimation. Here, an alternative to subsampling approaches, which often require large sample sizes, is explored by the extension and refinement of a pre-existing modelling technique that uses a geological proxy for sampling. Application of the model to the three main clades of dinosaurs suggests that much of their diversity fluctuations cannot be explained by sampling alone. Furthermore, there is new support for a long-term decline in their diversity leading up to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event. At present, use of this method with data that includes either Lagerstätten or 'Pull of the Recent' biases is inappropriate, although partial solutions are offered.

Dinosaurs and the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution.

The observed diversity of dinosaurs reached its highest peak during the mid- and Late Cretaceous, the 50 Myr that preceded their extinction, and yet this explosion of dinosaur diversity may be explained largely by sampling bias. It has long been debated whether dinosaurs were part of the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution (KTR), from 125-80 Myr ago, when flowering plants, herbivorous and social insects, squamates, birds and mammals all underwent a rapid expansion. Although an apparent explosion of dinosaur diversity occurred in the mid-Cretaceous, coinciding with the emergence of new groups (e.g. neoceratopsians, ankylosaurid ankylosaurs, hadrosaurids and pachycephalosaurs), results from the first quantitative study of diversification applied to a new supertree of dinosaurs show that this apparent burst in dinosaurian diversity in the last 18 Myr of the Cretaceous is a sampling artefact. Indeed, major diversification shifts occurred largely in the first one-third of the group's history. Despite the appearance of new clades of medium to large herbivores and carnivores later in dinosaur history, these new originations do not correspond to significant diversification shifts. Instead, the overall geometry of the Cretaceous part of the dinosaur tree does not depart from the null hypothesis of an equal rates model of lineage branching. Furthermore, we conclude that dinosaurs did not experience a progressive decline at the end of the Cretaceous, nor was their evolution driven directly by the KTR.

Well-Annotated microRNAomes Do Not Evidence Pervasive miRNA Loss.

microRNAs are conserved noncoding regulatory factors implicated in diverse physiological and developmental processes in multicellular organisms, as causal macroevolutionary agents and for phylogeny inference. However, the conservation and phylogenetic utility of microRNAs has been questioned on evidence of pervasive loss. Here, we show that apparent widespread losses are, largely, an artefact of poorly sampled and annotated microRNAomes. Using a curated data set of animal microRNAomes, we reject the view that miRNA families are never lost, but they are rarely lost (92% are never lost). A small number of families account for a majority of losses (1.7% of families account for >45% losses), and losses are associated with lineages exhibiting phenotypic simplification. Phylogenetic analyses based on the presence/absence of microRNA families among animal lineages, and based on microRNA sequences among Osteichthyes, demonstrate the power of these small data sets in phylogenetic inference. Perceptions of widespread evolutionary loss of microRNA families are due to the uncritical use of public archives corrupted by spurious microRNA annotations, and failure to discriminate false absences that occur because of incomplete microRNAome annotation.

A supertree of temnospondyli: cladogenetic patterns in the most species-rich group of early tetrapods.

As the most diverse group of early tetrapods, temnospondyls provide a unique opportunity to investigate cladogenetic patterns among basal limbed vertebrates. We present five species-level supertrees for temnospondyls, built using a variety of methods. The standard MRP majority rule consensus including minority components shows slightly greater resolution than other supertrees, and its shape matches well several currently accepted hypotheses of higher-level phylogeny for temnospondyls as a whole. Also, its node support is higher than those of other supertrees (except the combined standard plus Purvis MRP supertree). We explore the distribution of significant as well as informative changes (shifts) in branch splitting employing the standard MRP supertree as a reference, and discuss the temporal distribution of changes in time-sliced, pruned trees derived from this supertree. Also, we analyse those shifts that are most relevant to the end-Permian mass extinction. For the Palaeozoic, shifts occur almost invariably along branches that connect major Palaeozoic groups. By contrast, shifts in the Mesozoic occur predominantly within major groups. Numerous shifts bracket narrowly the end-Permian extinction, indicating not only rapid recovery and extensive diversification of temnospondyls over a short time period after the extinction event (possibly less than half a million years), but also the role of intense cladogenesis in the late part of the Permian (although this was counteracted by numerous 'background' extinctions).

Mass extinctions drove increased global faunal cosmopolitanism on the supercontinent Pangaea.

Mass extinctions have profoundly impacted the evolution of life through not only reducing taxonomic diversity but also reshaping ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. In particular, they are considered to have driven increased biogeographic cosmopolitanism, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis are rare and have not explicitly incorporated information on evolutionary relationships. Here we quantify faunal cosmopolitanism using a phylogenetic network approach for 891 terrestrial vertebrate species spanning the late Permian through Early Jurassic. This key interval witnessed the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions, the onset of fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangaea, and the origins of dinosaurs and many modern vertebrate groups. Our results recover significant increases in global faunal cosmopolitanism following both mass extinctions, driven mainly by new, widespread taxa, leading to homogenous 'disaster faunas'. Cosmopolitanism subsequently declines in post-recovery communities. These shared patterns in both biotic crises suggest that mass extinctions have predictable influences on animal distribution and may shed light on biodiversity loss in extant ecosystems.Mass extinctions are thought to produce 'disaster faunas', communities dominated by a small number of widespread species. Here, Button et al. develop a phylogenetic network approach to test this hypothesis and find that mass extinctions did increase faunal cosmopolitanism across Pangaea during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic.

Evidence for a Mid-Jurassic Adaptive Radiation in Mammals.

A series of spectacular discoveries have transformed our understanding of Mesozoic mammals in recent years. These finds reveal hitherto-unsuspected ecomorphological diversity that suggests that mammals experienced a major adaptive radiation during the Middle to Late Jurassic. Patterns of mammalian macroevolution must be reinterpreted in light of these new discoveries, but only taxonomic diversity and limited aspects of morphological disparity have been quantified. We assess rates of morphological evolution and temporal patterns of disparity using large datasets of discrete characters. Rates of morphological evolution were significantly elevated prior to the Late Jurassic, with a pronounced peak occurring during the Early to Middle Jurassic. This intense burst of phenotypic innovation coincided with a stepwise increase in apparent long-term standing diversity and the attainment of maximum disparity, supporting a "short-fuse" model of early mammalian diversification. Rates then declined sharply, and remained significantly low until the end of the Mesozoic, even among therians. This supports the "long-fuse" model of diversification in Mesozoic therians. Our findings demonstrate that sustained morphological innovation in Triassic stem-group mammals culminated in a global adaptive radiation of crown-group members during the Early to Middle Jurassic.