Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas.

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve 'health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot.

Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the presatellite era. Here, we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitized historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a fivefold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This is at least threefold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data are available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics.

Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests.

The response of terrestrial vegetation to a globally changing environment is central to predictions of future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The role of tropical forests is critical because they are carbon-dense and highly productive. Inventory plots across Amazonia show that old-growth forests have increased in carbon storage over recent decades, but the response of one-third of the world's tropical forests in Africa is largely unknown owing to an absence of spatially extensive observation networks. Here we report data from a ten-country network of long-term monitoring plots in African tropical forests. We find that across 79 plots (163 ha) above-ground carbon storage in live trees increased by 0.63 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) between 1968 and 2007 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.94; mean interval, 1987-96). Extrapolation to unmeasured forest components (live roots, small trees, necromass) and scaling to the continent implies a total increase in carbon storage in African tropical forest trees of 0.34 Pg C yr(-1) (CI, 0.15-0.43). These reported changes in carbon storage are similar to those reported for Amazonian forests per unit area, providing evidence that increasing carbon storage in old-growth forests is a pan-tropical phenomenon. Indeed, combining all standardized inventory data from this study and from tropical America and Asia together yields a comparable figure of 0.49 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (n = 156; 562 ha; CI, 0.29-0.66; mean interval, 1987-97). This indicates a carbon sink of 1.3 Pg C yr(-1) (CI, 0.8-1.6) across all tropical forests during recent decades. Taxon-specific analyses of African inventory and other data suggest that widespread changes in resource availability, such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, may be the cause of the increase in carbon stocks, as some theory and models predict.

Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests.

*The rich ecology of tropical forests is intimately tied to their moisture status. Multi-site syntheses can provide a macro-scale view of these linkages and their susceptibility to changing climates. Here, we report pan-tropical and regional-scale analyses of tree vulnerability to drought. *We assembled available data on tropical forest tree stem mortality before, during, and after recent drought events, from 119 monitoring plots in 10 countries concentrated in Amazonia and Borneo. *In most sites, larger trees are disproportionately at risk. At least within Amazonia, low wood density trees are also at greater risk of drought-associated mortality, independent of size. For comparable drought intensities, trees in Borneo are more vulnerable than trees in the Amazon. There is some evidence for lagged impacts of drought, with mortality rates remaining elevated 2 yr after the meteorological event is over. *These findings indicate that repeated droughts would shift the functional composition of tropical forests toward smaller, denser-wooded trees. At very high drought intensities, the linear relationship between tree mortality and moisture stress apparently breaks down, suggesting the existence of moisture stress thresholds beyond which some tropical forests would suffer catastrophic tree mortality.

The species-area relationship and confounding variables in a threatened monkey community.

This study investigates the species-area relationship (SAR) for forest monkeys in a biodiversity hotspot. The Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania are well-suited to investigate the SAR, with seven monkey species in a range of fragment sizes (0.06-526 km(2)). We test the relationship between species richness and forest fragment size, relative to human and environmental factors. We distinguish resident and transitory species because the latter have an "effective patch size" beyond the area of forest. Forest area was the strongest (log-linear) predictor of species richness. However, forest area, elevation range and annual moisture index were intercorrelated. Previous knowledge of the relationship between elevation and tree communities suggests that the SAR is largely a result of habitat heterogeneity. Isolation by farmland (matrix habitat) also had a significant negative effect on species richness, probably exacerbated by hunting in small forests. The effect of area and isolation was less for transitory species. The human influence on species' presence/absence was negatively related to the extent of occurrence. Weaker relationships with temperature and precipitation suggest underlying climatic influences, and give some support for the influence of productivity. A reduced area relationship for smaller forests suggests that fragment sizes below 12-40 km(2) may not be reliable for determining SAR in forest monkeys. Further practical implications are for management to encourage connectivity, and for future SAR research to consider residency, matrix classification and moisture besides precipitation.

Dealing with pollution from conflict: Analysis of discourses around the 2006 Lebanon oil spill.

In July 2006 a war between Lebanon and Israel resulted in severe environmental damage in Lebanon from Israeli bombing raids. An attack on the Lebanese Jiyyeh Power Plant released 15,000 tons of heavy fuel oil into the Mediterranean Sea. Remarkably, a clean-up operation was effected despite a continued state of war and lack of capacity in the Lebanese government. Civil society environmentalists played a key role in dealing with the pollution and complying with pollution-control legislation. In this study we use Q-methodology to analyse discourses on the effectiveness of pollution legislation during times of conflict using the Jiyyeh oil spill as an example. We interviewed 35 people from eight different stakeholder groups involved in environmental issues. Five distinct discourses were generated covering compensation schemes, need for new legislation, role of stakeholders during wartime and strengthening government ministries.

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants.

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

Selection of line-transect methods for estimating the density of group-living animals: lessons from the primates.

We review the four major contemporary methods for estimating density of group-living animals from line-transect sampling: perpendicular modelling of group centers, perpendicular modelling of center of measurable individuals, strip transects and animal-observer distance. The efficacy of each method is evaluated to produce a simple selection guide. We review the literature and use field data from the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania. The review is relevant to all group-living animals; however, examples are drawn from the primates. Perpendicular methods have better mathematical justification than non-perpendicular methods. For perpendicular methods using detection function models, it is preferable to measure group location using center of measurable individuals, as group centers are hard to estimate. The assumptions of detection function models are often broken in poor visibility habitats or with unhabituated animals. Alternatively strip transects may be used where there are reliable data on group spread and/or visibility. Strip transects are also the most practical, along with the animal-observer method; however, the latter lacks mathematical justification. We conclude that there are arguments for continued use of all four methods. In certain situations the use of raw encounter rates may also be considered. The appropriate method is determined by minimizing bias and considering time, resources and field conditions.

Assessing sustainability in North America's ecosystems using criticality and information theory.

Sustainability is a key concept in economic and policy debates. Nevertheless, it is usually treated only in a qualitative way and has eluded quantitative analysis. Here, we propose a sustainability index based on the premise that sustainable systems do not lose or gain Fisher Information over time. We test this approach using time series data from the AmeriFlux network that measures ecosystem respiration, water and energy fluxes in order to elucidate two key sustainability features: ecosystem health and stability. A novel definition of ecosystem health is developed based on the concept of criticality, which implies that if a system's fluctuations are scale invariant then the system is in a balance between robustness and adaptability. We define ecosystem stability by taking an information theory approach that measures its entropy and Fisher information. Analysis of the Ameriflux consortium big data set of ecosystem respiration time series is contrasted with land condition data. In general we find a good agreement between the sustainability index and land condition data. However, we acknowledge that the results are a preliminary test of the approach and further verification will require a multi-signal analysis. For example, high values of the sustainability index for some croplands are counter-intuitive and we interpret these results as ecosystems maintained in artificial health due to continuous human-induced inflows of matter and energy in the form of soil nutrients and control of competition, pests and disease.

Correction to: Quantifying and understanding carbon storage and sequestration within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

Upon publication of the original article [1], the authors noticed that the figure labelling for Fig. 4 in the online version was processed wrong. The top left panel should be panel a, with the panels to its right being b and c. d and e should be the panels on the lower row, and f is correct. The graphs themselves are all correct. It is simply the letter labels that are wrong.

Quantifying and understanding carbon storage and sequestration within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

BACKGROUND: The carbon stored in vegetation varies across tropical landscapes due to a complex mix of climatic and edaphic variables, as well as direct human interventions such as deforestation and forest degradation. Mapping and monitoring this variation is essential if policy developments such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) are to be known to have succeeded or failed. RESULTS: We produce a map of carbon storage across the watershed of the Tanzanian Eastern Arc Mountains (33.9 million ha) using 1,611 forest inventory plots, and correlations with associated climate, soil and disturbance data. As expected, tropical forest stores more carbon per hectare (182 Mg C ha(-1)) than woody savanna (51 Mg C ha(-1)). However, woody savanna is the largest aggregate carbon store, with 0.49 Pg C over 9.6 million ha. We estimate the whole landscape stores 1.3 Pg C, significantly higher than most previous estimates for the region. The 95% Confidence Interval for this method (0.9 to 3.2 Pg C) is larger than simpler look-up table methods (1.5 to 1.6 Pg C), suggesting simpler methods may underestimate uncertainty. Using a small number of inventory plots with two censuses (n = 43) to assess changes in carbon storage, and applying the same mapping procedures, we found that carbon storage in the tree-dominated ecosystems has decreased, though not significantly, at a mean rate of 1.47 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (c. 2% of the stocks of carbon per year). CONCLUSIONS: The most influential variables on carbon storage in the region are anthropogenic, particularly historical logging, as noted by the largest coefficient of explanatory variable on the response variable. Of the non-anthropogenic factors, a negative correlation with air temperature and a positive correlation with water availability dominate, having smaller p-values than historical logging but also smaller influence. High carbon storage is typically found far from the commercial capital, in locations with a low monthly temperature range, without a strong dry season, and in areas that have not suffered from historical logging. The results imply that policy interventions could retain carbon stored in vegetation and likely successfully slow or reverse carbon emissions.

Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests.

We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus-AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes.

Towards regional, error-bounded landscape carbon storage estimates for data-deficient areas of the world.

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as 'lowland tropical forest' are often used, termed 'Tier 1 type' analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC 'Tier 2' reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92-6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ∼50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.

Exploring discourses on international environmental regime effectiveness with Q methodology: a case study of the Mediterranean Action Plan.

Extensive research has been done on the 'high politics' of negotiations of international environmental agreements. However, little attention has been paid to the effectiveness of their implementation after coming into force. Effectiveness cannot be easily measured, since different stakeholders use different criteria as the basis of their opinion. The purpose of this study is to investigate discourses on the effectiveness of an international environmental regime. The regime chosen is the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) - and its legal framework, the Barcelona Convention - which was established in 1975 under the aegis of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Q methodology was used to reveal discourses on the effectiveness of UNEP/MAP. After collecting relevant literature and identifying the stakeholders, 25 in-depth interviews were conducted. The stakeholders were from the Secretariat of the Convention, academia, NGO workers, and others that studied or knew the subject well. From these interviews 294 statements were extracted, from which 44 were finally selected to be used in the Q study. The interviewees were approached for the second time to complete the Q sorts. This study revealed four distinct discourses concerning the effectiveness of international environmental regimes. It concludes that there is no one 'right' way of defining effectiveness and that no approach can provide more than a partial evaluation of the overall effectiveness of a regime.

Design principles and common pool resource management: an institutional approach to evaluating community management in semi-arid Tanzania.

This paper analyses the role of institutions in the management of common pool resources (CPRs) in semi-arid Tanzania. Common property regimes have often been considered inadequate for the management of CPRs because of the problems of excludability, but they are becoming more widely supported as the way forward to overcome the problems of resource use and degradation in developing countries. A series of design principles for long enduring common property institutions have been proposed by Ostrom, but there is concern that they are not applicable to a wide range of real life situations or that they may be specific to certain types of CPR. Here, we compare these principles to the situation prevailing in 12 villages in six districts in semi-arid Tanzania. Data on management institutions were collected through semi-structured interviews and meetings at district and village level. The combined information was used to make a qualitative assessment of the strength with which each design principle appeared to operate in the management of forest, pasture and water resources. Boundaries, conflict and negotiation in CPR management are of key importance in semi-arid regions. However, the need for flexibility in order to deal with ecological uncertainty means that many management institutions would be considered weak or absent according to the design principle approach. This supports the view that the design principles should not be used as a 'blueprint to be imposed on resource management regimes' rather that they provide a framework for investigating common property regimes with the proviso that, certainly for semi-arid regions, they may highlight where management cannot be explained by institutional theory alone.

Transaction costs and community-based natural resource management in Nepal.

Transaction costs in community-based resource management are incurred by households attempting to enforce property right rules over common resources similar to those inherent in private property rights. Despite their importance, transaction costs of community-based management of common pool resources (CPRs) are often not incorporated into the economic analysis of participatory resource management. This paper examines the transaction costs incurred by forest users in community forestry (CF) based on a survey of 309 households belonging to eight different forest user groups (FUGs) in the mid hills of Nepal. The analysis reveals that the average 'poor' household incurred Nepalese rupees (NRS) 1265 in transaction costs annually, while wealthier 'rich' households incurred an average of NRS 2312 per year. Although richer households bear higher proportions of such costs, transaction costs for CF management as a percentage of resource appropriation costs are higher for poorer households (26%) than those of middle-wealth (24%) or rich households (14%). There are also village differences in the level of transaction costs. The results show that transaction costs are a major component of resource management costs and vary according to socio-economic status of resource users and characteristics of the community.

Fire assisted pastoralism vs. sustainable forestry--the implications of missing markets for carbon in determining optimal land use in the wet-dry tropics of Australia.

Using Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Australia as a case study, this paper combines field sampling of woody vegetation with cost-benefit analysis to compare the social optimality of fire-assisted pastoralism with sustainable forestry. Carbon sequestration is estimated to be significantly higher in the absence of fire. Integration of carbon sequestration benefits for mitigating future costs of climate change into cost-benefit analysis demonstrates that sustainable forestry is a more socially optimal land use than fire-assisted pastoralism. Missing markets for carbon, however, imply that fire-assisted pastoralism will continue to be pursued in the absence of policy intervention. Creation of markets for carbon represents a policy solution that has the potential to drive land use away from fire-assisted pastoralism towards sustainable forestry and environmental conservation.

Local perceptions of risk to livelihood in semi-arid Tanzania.

This paper examines variation in local perceptions of risk in semi-arid Tanzania, identifying factors that influence local perceptions of problems and testing the feasibility of risk mapping as a technique. Twelve villages in six districts were visited between February and April 2001. Villagers were asked about their worries and concerns in providing for themselves and their families using a risk questionnaire. The responses were grouped into 21 categories of problem and incidence and severity indices were calculated for each category. Most problems were associated with the availability of natural resources on which livelihoods depend but others related to human and social capital assets. In addition to environmental factors, livelihood strategy and gender both influenced people's perceptions of risk. Problems of irrigation and weather, for example, were important for agricultural communities while problems relating to livestock diseases, access to land and hunger were more important in pastoral communities. The risks cited by men and women generally reflected their traditional roles in society. Very broadly, the risks associated with natural capital tended to be seen as higher by men while women mentioned more problems relating to human and social capital. However, this was not always the case. Problems linked to finance, traditionally the concern of men, were ranked similarly by men and women. In projects designed to facilitate community management and control over common pool resources, the identification of common interests is particularly important. Risk mapping can provide a cost-effective way of gaining insights to help improve research design and to inform policy development.