Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.

Gender and ethnic differences in the health practices of the elderly poor.

Gender and ethnic differences in personal health practices were examined with a sample of 1021 Medicaid recipients aged 65 years and older. Six different health practices were examined including smoking, drinking, weight control, exercise, and social networks. Although gender differences were noted with respect to all of the health practices examined, neither men nor women were consistently favored in adhering to desired health practices. Perhaps most importantly, women were more apt than men to refrain from smoking and drinking which have been strongly linked to major health consequences. Ethnicity was also a factor in all of the health practices examined. Whereas Hispanic and Black elderly were very similar to White elderly, Asian elderly generally adhered to more desired health practices than did either Whites, Blacks, or Hispanics. The implications of these findings could benefit health promotion programs for the elderly.

Patient-related predictors of rehabilitation use for community-dwelling older Americans.

OBJECTIVE: To determine patient factors that predict use of physical or occupational therapy (PT/OT) services by elderly people. DESIGN: Time-series study of the relationship of PT/OT use to a variety of characteristics present at baseline. PARTICIPANTS: Eight-hundred nine community-dwelling men and women aged 65 and older. SETTING: The Medicare Screening and Health Promotion Trial at UCLA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Use of PT/OT services, as reported in a telephone survey 1 year after initial information was obtained on the same subjects by the baseline telephonic survey. RESULTS: Fifteen percent of the sample used PT/OT within 12 months of baseline. In multiple logistic regression analysis, PT/OT use was significantly less frequent among racial minorities, less well educated groups, and the oldest age group. PT/OT use was higher among those who had both functional disability and the presence of arthritis, heart or lung disease, or a prior history of stroke. However, neither functional disability alone nor the presence of arthritis, cardiovascular or lung disease, in the absence of limited functioning, was associated with PT/OT use. Patients who had obtained a pneumococcal vaccination or used transportation services were also more likely to receive PT/OT. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that there may be important sociodemographic inequalities in the use of rehabilitation services and raise the possibility of inappropriate underuse in certain subgroups. Additional studies are needed to determine whether similar inequalities of PT/OT use are found in other populations and whether rehabilitation is effective in various subgroups.

Hypertension in elderly people in a preventive health program.

Control of hypertension is increasingly being recognized as a significant component of any preventive health care program for the elderly because of the high prevalence of hypertension in this group and its impact on health, particularly cardiovascular diseases. This study evaluates the hypertension screening component in one of the oldest and largest health promotion programs for the elderly in the United States, the Preventive Health Care for the Aging Program (PHCAP) in California. Our findings show that 26.7% of PHCAP participants had hypertensive readings on examination. Of these, 20% had mild hypertension, 5.6% moderate hypertension, and 1.1% severe hypertension. Urban participants were more likely than rural participants to have hypertension. Of those with severe hypertension, living alone was a significant factor when controlling for other variables. Overall, 40.2% of the hypertensive patients were not aware of their hypertension, and whites and Hispanics were less aware than blacks of their hypertensive status. Men were also less aware than women. These findings suggest ways to improve hypertension control programs for healthy elderly people who are self-referred to community-based preventive health care programs.

Health promotion and disease prevention for older adults: opportunity for change or preaching to the converted?

Health promotion and disease prevention for the elderly offer the potential for improving the quality of life for the growing population of older adults, while reducing the economic burden on the health system. Whether this potential can be realized depends, in part, on whether those older adults whose health behaviors put them at risk actually use preventive services when offered the opportunity. In 1988 the Health Care Financing Administration began a series of health promotion demonstrations to address health issues related to older adults. This article reports on program participation at one of the five demonstration sites. Over 1,900 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who receive their health care through fee-for-service providers were enrolled in the demonstration. These enrollees were randomly assigned to control and experimental groups, with the latter offered health screening and promotion services. Nine hundred-seventy-three of the experimental subjects and 938 of the control subjects completed a lengthy telephone interview, which determined each person's use of preventive services and practices. Although all 973 experimental subjects were invited by letter and follow-up telephone calls to attend these free-of-charge, Medicare-provided sessions, not everyone attended. We analyzed 17 health behaviors of those who attended the first session and those who did not. Those engaging in these preventive behaviors were neither more nor less likely to attend the screening services. Thus, we found neither "favorable" nor "unfavorable" selection bias in the use of these preventive services.

Mammography use in older women with regular physicians: what are the predictors?

Results of a longitudinal study of 1,050 women 65 years of age and older under the care of faculty internists demonstrate that individual and sociodemographic factors predict mammography use. The majority of the sample (79%) had received a mammogram within the past two years. Multiple logistic regression analyses of findings from a telephone survey showed that mammographic screening was significantly higher among women who had recently received a Pap smear, whose annual household incomes exceeded $30,000, and whose personal health care habits were preventively oriented; they used more preventive services such as routine dental care and engaged in more preventive behaviors such as seat-belt use and routine exercise. Mammography use was significantly higher among those 75 or younger. These findings suggest that enhancing patient preventive orientations should be part of interventions designed to increase screening. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH): appropriateness review, preventive health services, utilization, aged, Medicare.

Awareness and utilization of community long-term care services by elderly Korean and non-Hispanic white Americans.

This article presents a comparative analysis of the level of awareness and utilization of 15 community-based long-term care services by 213 elderly Korean and 201 non-Hispanic White Americans. We found extremely low levels of awareness and utilization of long-term health and social services among Korean Americans, in both absolute and relative terms. This finding challenges the success of the Older Americans Act, an important funding source of those services, in meeting its stated objectives to increase service availability and delivery to minority elders and socioeconomically disadvantaged elders. Strategies for effective outreach and public education efforts are also discussed.

Predictors of use of traditional Korean healers among elderly Koreans in Los Angeles.

Many ethnic groups are known to use traditional healers often in conjunction with Western biomedical medicine, thus combining treatment regimens and medical advice as they see fit. Awareness of the use of traditional healers is an increasingly salient issue due to the growing diversity and aging of the U.S. population. To explore the determinants of use of traditional healers, we studied demographics, health status, and social support networks of a representative sample of elderly Koreans in Los Angeles County, California. The results revealed that chronic conditions such as arthritis, lung disease, and stomach pain, fewer depressive symptoms, availability of health insurance, and stronger social networks were significant predictors of use of traditional healers. Better understanding reasons for and patterns of health care use may enhance the delivery of care to the heterogeneous elderly population by preventing potential treatment complications and increasing health providers' cultural sensitivity.

Sexual activity and satisfaction among very old adults: results from a community-dwelling Medicare population survey.

This article explores the relationship between sociopsychological factors, sexual activity, and sexual satisfaction in a sample of 1,216 elderly people (mean age = 77.3). Almost 30% had participated in sexual activity in the past month and 67% were satisfied with current level of sexual activity. Men are more likely to be sexually active, but less apt than women to be satisfied with their level of sexual activity. Regarding predictors of sexual activity, for men the strongest predictors were being younger and having more education. For women, the strongest predictor by far was being married. For both men and women the strongest predictors for satisfaction were being sexually active and having positive mental health scores. In summary, the main variables predicting sexual activity were being married, having more education, being younger, being male, and having good social networks. The main predictors for satisfaction with sexual activity were, in addition to being sexually active, being female, having good mental health, and better functional status.

A statewide preventive health care program for the aged.

Because of the rising percentage of elderly in the population and the cost of health care expenditures, interest has increased in preventive health care services for the aging. Although the effectiveness of such programs is still being discussed by policy makers, the number of preventive health programs for the elderly is increasing. One of the oldest and largest preventive health programs for the elderly in the United States, the California Preventive Health Care for the Aging Program (PHCAP) is analyzed. The typical PHCAP participant was white, female, between 70 and 79 years of age, and living in an urban area. More than half (59 percent) of the PHCAP participants had some kind of private medical insurance in addition to Medicare coverage. Seventy-seven percent of the participants had seen a physician within the previous year. The most frequently reported chronic conditions were arthritis (31 percent), hypertension (24 percent), cardiovascular problems (13 percent), and vision and hearing problems (18 and 11 percent). Twenty-seven percent of the population were hypertensive; 7 percent of these had moderate to severe hypertension. Eighty percent of the participants were identified as having at least one problem; 40 percent were referred to a physician. Frequently, public health programs need to be evaluated without the benefit of a controlled trial design. This analysis of a statewide preventive health care program for the aging, PHCAP, shows the program's effectiveness in detecting a large number of health problems and making extensive referrals to other health professionals, particularly physicians. These findings should be useful to health practitioners and policy makers developing similar statewide programs for the elderly.

Enrolling community physicians and their patients in a study of prevention in the elderly.

Enrollment of senior citizens in a community Medicare demonstration project to explore the efficacy of preventive health screening and health education was accomplished by using a two-stage process. This process consisted of initial communication with community physicians through the University of California at Los Angeles Clinical Faculty Association to establish credibility for the program. Physicians who agreed to participate then selected potential participants to receive, by mail, a description of the study and an introductory letter from their own physician. Followup and actual enrollment of participants was then handled by the study team. A total of 57.6 percent of the elderly people approached agreed to participate in the study.

Differences in drinking behavior among three Asian-American groups.

This article challenges the commonly held beliefs that there are few if any heavy drinkers among Asian-Americans and that different groups of Asians exhibit similar patterns of drinking. To explore these stereotypes, alcohol consumption patterns were compared in a survey of 298 Chinese, 295 Japanese and 280 Koreans in Los Angeles. Heavy drinking was found in each of the Asian groups. Gender specific logistic regression models were used to illustrate the differences in the drinking patterns of the Asian-American groups and to clarify the determinants of drinking. The greatest proportion of heavy drinking was found among the Japanese and the lowest among the Chinese. Having friends who drank was the only social factor consistently related to Asian drinking behavior.

Exploring Filipino American drinking behavior.

The purpose of this article was to explore characteristics distinguishing levels of drinking by Filipino Americans. A sample of 298 adult Filipinos was interviewed using a schedule based on a national study of drinking behavior and attitudes. Approximately 50% of the female sample were abstainers while 80% of the men were drinkers. Heavy drinking was almost exclusively a male activity. Thus, two models of Filipino drinking were examined. Logistic regression was used to identify social factors distinguishing female drinkers from abstainers. A second model clarified the influence of similar characteristics on male Filipinos who drank limited amounts of alcohol and those who drank heavily. The only variable significant in both models was regular participation in religious service.

Male Chinese drinking behavior in Los Angeles.

The purpose of this research was to identify the characteristics that distinguish male Chinese drinkers from abstainers and to clarify differences between Chinese men who drink limited amounts of alcohol and those who drink more heavily. A random sample of 218 adult Chinese men was interviewed using a schedule based on a national study of drinking behavior. The stereotype of Chinese as limited drinkers was partially supported by the data. Approximately 22% of the sample were abstainers whereas only 14% were heavy drinkers. Light drinkers were the modal category. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relative importance of the significant characteristics of drinkers and abstainers. Parents' drinking behavior influenced respondent's drinking behavior, and drinkers tended to like to go to parties. Chinese men with higher education were more apt to be drinkers. A second logistic regression model was used to identify the predictive variables related to the level of drinking. Chinese men who go to bars and who have friends who drink were the most likely to be heavy drinkers.

Norms and alcohol consumption: Japanese in Japan, Hawaii and California.

The study compared age/sex norms and alcohol consumption of a sample of Japanese from Japan and Japanese Americans in Hawaii and California. Age norms included acceptable drinking levels for the following age groups: 16, 21, 40 and 60, both male and female. There were significant differences in norms across the sites with the Japanese in Japan holding the most tolerant views of heavier drinking for men, followed by California and Hawaii. The Japanese-American samples were more tolerant of female drinking than were the Japanese. There was a high degree of similarity between Hawaii and California, whereas Japanese respondents in Japan differed in their responses. A correlation between drinking and norms by site indicated a high degree of congruence between drinking and more tolerant norms for drinking in all of the samples: Those who drank the most also had the most permissive norms toward drinking. The differences in norms between Japanese in Japan and Japanese Americans were explained in terms of enculturation and acculturation.

Health promotion for the rural elderly.

There has been increased interest in developing health promotion programs for the rural elderly as a means to foster successful aging. The present study describes one such program and identifies rural and urban differences in health promotion activities. Data come from the California Preventive Health Care for the Aging Program (PHCAP) which is one of the oldest and largest such programs in the United States. A sample of over 5,000 PHCAP clients was drawn from rural, semi-rural and urban projects. Though the rural and urban clients differed significantly with respect to demographic characteristics, differences in health promotion practices were relatively minor. However, the health promotion practices of semi-rural residents differed considerably from that in rural projects. Though less disabled, semi-rural clients received a greater scope of health promotion activities than rural clients. The authors discuss possible site, practitioner and client factors which may have accounted for rural health promotion activities being more restricted. Regardless of project site, the California PHCAP detected many health problems and a majority of clients were referred to other health professionals for treatment.

Perceptions of health and use of ambulatory care: differences between Korean and White elderly.

This study identifies whether culturally based differences in perceptions of health resulted in differences in ambulatory care use among the elderly. METHODS. The authors conducted stratified Poisson regressions on data from a 1992 survey of older Koreans and Whites in Los Angeles County. The models included measures of demographics, health, functioning, income, insurance, social support, and culture (perceptions of health or other beliefs). RESULTS. Descriptive findings showed older Koreans had more ambulatory physician visits, poorer functioning, and poorer perceptions of their health than Whites. Multivariate findings showed that positive perceptions of health independently reduced office visits for both Koreans and Whites, but the effect was significantly smaller for Koreans. Other cultural differences also affected use. DISCUSSION. The findings highlight differences between older Koreans and Whites' responses to physical and socioeconomic conditions and the importance of cultural sensitivity in the health care delivery system.

Factors affecting self-ratings of oral health.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of self-rated oral health to a comprehensive battery of clinical, sociodemographic, physical health, and mental health measures in a well-elderly urban population. METHODS: Results are based on telephone interviews and clinical assessments of 550 subjects over 65 years of age participating in a Los Angeles-based Medicare project during 1990. Subjects were mostly female, white (89%), with above-average income. RESULTS: Findings show that: (1) the DMF measure is not as strongly related to self-rated oral health as was a single measure of missing teeth; (2) the major predictors of self-rated oral health were "worry about teeth" and "appearance of teeth" followed by total missing teeth, race, education, and depression scores; and (3) self-rated general health is related to self-rated oral health. CONCLUSION: Self-rated oral health may be, for older adults, a better measure of "health" than of "morbidity".

Comparison of oral health ratings by dentists and dentate elders.

Previous studies suggest a discrepancy between the way dentists and patients measure oral health. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between a dentist's rating of an older dentate person's oral health and the patient self-rating using a single-item indicator, and to compare the clinical (i.e., number of teeth, caries, etc.) and subjective (problems with function, pain, etc.) factors that influence the rating. The study sample consisted of 776 older dentate people. Results showed that dentists judged subjects' oral health significantly more positively than the self-ratings. Approximately 30 percent of the elders rated their oral health identically to the dentist and half rated their oral health lower than the dentist. Bivariate comparisons showed that similar clinical and subjective variables were associated with the dentist and patient ratings. Multiple regression findings, however, highlighted differences in the factors that influenced the ratings. In addition, the proportion of variance accounted for by the clinical factors as opposed to the subjective factors was greater for the dentist rating (R2 = .28 of .33) than the subject self-rating (R2 = .18 of .43).

The relationship between dental utilization and preventive participation among a well-elderly sample.

Previous studies have shown that dental utilization by older people is lower than for the general population. This study hypothesizes that an elder's tendency toward participating in preventive health activities may be an important factor in explaining the likelihood of accessing the dentist. Subjects included 1,911 older individuals who enrolled in the UCLA Medicare Screening and Health Promotion Trial. All were interviewed about their utilization of preventive health services and participation in preventive behaviors. A recent dental visit was positively associated with all sociodemographic variables examined except age and sex. It was also related to health status questions and utilization of the preventive health services and health behaviors studied. Logistic regression analysis showed that both summary preventive health behavior and preventive service utilization variables were important factors in explaining a recent dental visit (model chi-square = 221.4, P = .001) along with income, not having a removable prosthesis, and perceiving the need for dental care. This study showed that dental utilization is related to older people's participation in other preventive activities. When in contact with older people, health care professionals should consider current oral and general preventive health status and encourage appropriate referral for preventive activities.