Prediction of biochemical nonresolution in patients with chronic drug-induced liver injury: A large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To clarify high-risk factors and develop a nomogram model to predict biochemical resolution or biochemical nonresolution (BNR) in patients with chronic DILI. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Retrospectively, 3655 of 5326 patients with chronic DILI were enrolled from nine participating hospitals, of whom 2866 underwent liver biopsy. All of these patients were followed up for over 1 year and their clinical characteristics were retrieved from electronic medical records. The endpoint was BNR, defined as alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase >1.5× upper limit of normal or alkaline phosphatase >1.1× ULN, at 12 months from chronic DILI diagnosis. The noninvasive high-risk factors for BNR identified by multivariable logistic regression were used to establish a nomogram, which was validated in an independent external cohort. Finally, 19.3% (707 of 3655) patients presented with BNR. Histologically, with the increase in liver inflammation grades and fibrosis stages, the proportion of BNR significantly increased. The risk of BNR was increased by 21.3-fold in patients with significant inflammation compared to none or mild inflammation (p < 0.001). Biochemically, aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, platelets, prothrombin time, sex, and age were associated with BNR and incorporated to construct a nomogram model (BNR-6) with a concordance index of 0.824 (95% CI, 0.798-0.849), which was highly consistent with liver histology. These results were successfully validated both in the internal cohort and external cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Significant liver inflammation is a robust predictor associated with biochemical nonresolution. The established BNR-6 model provides an easy-to-use approach to assess the outcome of chronic DILI.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence after antiviral therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C Infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence following antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) remains unclear. The current study aims to compare: (1) the HCC occurrence rate following sustained virological response (SVR) versus non-response (NR); (2) the HCC occurrence rate following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy versus interferon (IFN)-based therapy, and (3) the HCC occurrence rate in SVR patients with or without cirrhosis. METHODS: A search was performed for articles published between January 2017 and July 2022. Studies were included if they assessed HCC occurrence rate in CHC patients following anti-HCV therapy. Random effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the results from individual studies. RESULTS: A total of 23 studies including 29,395 patients (IFN-based = 6, DAA = 17; prospective = 10, retrospective = 13) were included in the review. HCC occurrence was significantly lower in CHC with SVR (1.54 per 100 person-years (py, 95% CI 1.52, 1.57) than those in non-responders (7.80 py, 95% CI 7.61, 7.99). Stratified by HCV treatment regimens, HCC occurrence following SVR was 1.17 per 100 py (95% CI 1.11, 1.22) and 1.60 per 100 py (95% CI 1.58, 1.63) in IFN- and DAA treatment-based studies. HCC occurrence was 0.85 per 100 py (95% CI 0.85, 0.86) in the non-cirrhosis population and rose to 2.47 per 100 py (95% CI 2.42, 2.52) in the cirrhosis population. Further meta-regression analysis showed that treatment types were not associated with a higher HCC occurrence rate, while cirrhosis status was an important factor of HCC occurrence rate. CONCLUSION: HCC occurrence was significantly lower in the SVR population than in the NR population. HCC risk following SVR occurred three times more frequently in patients with cirrhosis than patients without cirrhosis. However, we found no significant difference in HCC occurrence risk following SVR between DAA and IFN therapies. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: CRD42023473033.