Sex-specific time trends in first admission to hospital for peripheral artery disease in Scotland 1991-2007.

BACKGROUND: This study examined trends for all first hospital admissions for peripheral artery disease (PAD) in Scotland from 1991 to 2007 using the Scottish Morbidity Record. METHODS: First admissions to hospital for PAD were defined as an admission to hospital (inpatient and day-case) with a principal diagnosis of PAD, with no previous admission to hospital (principal or secondary diagnosis) for PAD in the previous 10 years. RESULTS: From 1991 to 2007, 41,593 individuals were admitted to hospital in Scotland for the first time for PAD. Some 23,016 (55.3 per cent) were men (mean(s.d.) age 65.7(11.7) years) and 18,577 were women (aged 70.4(12.8) years). For both sexes the population rate of first admissions to hospital for PAD declined over the study interval: from 66.7 per 100,000 in 1991-1993 to 39.7 per 100,000 in 2006-2007 among men, and from 43.5 to 29.1 per 100,000 respectively among women. After adjustment, the decline was estimated to be 42 per cent in men and 27 per cent in women (rate ratio for 2007 versus 1991: 0.58 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.55 to 0.62) in men and 0.73 (0.68 to 0.78) in women). The intervention rate fell from 80.8 to 74.4 per cent in men and from 77.9 to 64.9 per cent in women. The proportion of hospital admissions as an emergency or transfer increased, from 23.9 to 40.7 per cent among men and from 30.0 to 49.5 per cent among women. CONCLUSION: First hospital admission for PAD in Scotland declined steadily and substantially between 1991 and 2007, with an increase in the proportion that was unplanned.

Pre-exercise screening and health coaching in CHD secondary prevention: a qualitative study of the patient experience.

Secondary prevention programmes can be effective in reducing morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD). In particular, UK guidelines, including those from the Department of Health, emphasize physical activity. However, the effects of secondary prevention programmes with an exercise component are moderate and uptake is highly variable. In order to explore patients' experiences of a pre-exercise screening and health coaching programme (involving one-to-one consultations to support exercise behaviour change), semi-structured telephone interviews were undertaken with 84 CHD patients recruited from primary care. The interviews focused on patients' experiences of the intervention including referral and any recommendations for improvement. A thematic analysis of transcribed interviews showed that the majority of patients were positive about referral. However, patients also identified a number of barriers to attending and completing the programme, including a belief they were sufficiently active already, the existence of other health problems, feeling unsupported in community-based exercise classes and competing demands. Our findings highlight important issues around the choice of an appropriate point of intervention for programmes of this kind as well as the importance of appropriate patient selection, suggesting that the effectiveness of health coaching may be under-reported as a result of including patients who are not yet ready to change their behaviours.

Defining the research agenda to measure and reduce tuberculosis stigmas.

Crucial to finding and treating the 4 million tuberculosis (TB) patients currently missed by national TB programmes, TB stigma is receiving well-deserved and long-delayed attention at the global level. However, the ability to measure and evaluate the success of TB stigma-reduction efforts is limited by the need for additional tools. At a 2016 TB stigma-measurement meeting held in The Hague, The Netherlands, stigma experts discussed and proposed a research agenda around four themes: 1) drivers: what are the main drivers and domains of TB stigma(s)?; 2) consequences: how consequential are TB stigmas and how are negative impacts most felt?; 3) burden: what is the global prevalence and distribution of TB stigma(s) and what explains any variation? 4): intervention: what can be done to reduce the extent and impact of TB stigma(s)? Each theme was further subdivided into research topics to be addressed to move the agenda forward. These include greater clarity on what causes TB stigmas to emerge and thrive, the difficulty of measuring the complexity of stigma, and the improbability of a universal stigma 'cure'. Nevertheless, these challenges should not hinder investments in the measurement and reduction of TB stigma. We believe it is time to focus on how, and not whether, the global community should measure and reduce TB stigma.

Evidence of improving prognosis in heart failure: trends in case fatality in 66 547 patients hospitalized between 1986 and 1995.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary survival in unselected patients with heart failure and the population impact of newer therapies have not been widely studied. Therefore, we have documented case-fatality rates (CFRs) over a recent 10-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: In Scotland, all hospitalizations and deaths are captured on a single database. We have studied case fatality in all patients admitted with a principal diagnosis of heart failure from 1986 to 1995. A total of 66 547 patients (47% male) were studied. Median age was 72 years in men and 78 years in women. Crude CFRs at 30 days and at 1, 5, and 10 years were 19.9%, 44.5%, 76.5%, and 87.6%, respectively. Median survival was 1.47 years in men and 1.39 years in women (2.47 and 2. 36 years, respectively, in those surviving 30 days). Age had a powerful effect on survival, and sex, comorbidity, and deprivation had modest effects. One-year CF was 24.2% in those aged <55 years and 58.1% in those aged >84 years. After adjustment, 30-day CFRs fell between 1986 and 1995, by 26% (95% CI 15 to 35, P<0.0001) in men and 17% (95% CI 6 to 26, P<0.0001) in women. Longer term CFRs fell by 18% (95% CI 13 to 24, P<0.0001) in men and 15% (95% CI 10 to 20, P<0.0001) in women. Median survival increased from 1.23 to 1. 64 years. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure CF is much higher in the general population than in clinical trials, especially in the elderly. Although survival has increased significantly over the last decade, there is still much room for improvement.

Gender and survival: a population-based study of 201,114 men and women following a first acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypotheses that the effect of gender on short-term case fatality following a first admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) varies with age, and that this effect is offset by differences in the proportion of men and women who survive to reach hospital. BACKGROUND: Evidence is conflicting regarding the effect of gender on prognosis after AMI. METHODS: All 201,114 first AMIs between 1986 and 1995 were studied. Both 30-day and 1-year case fatality were analyzed for the 117,749 patients hospitalized and for all first AMIs, including deaths before hospitalization. The effect of gender and its interaction with age on survival was examined using multivariate modeling. RESULTS: Gender-based differences in survival varied according to age in hospitalized patients, with younger women having higher 30-day case fatality than men (e.g., <55 years, women 6.5% vs. 4.8% men, p < 0.0001). When deaths from first AMI before hospitalization were included in 30-day case fatality, women were less likely to die (adjusted odds ratio 0.9, confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93). Gender was not an independent predictor of one-year survival (p = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: Female gender increases the probability of surviving to reach hospital, and this outweighs the excess risk of death occurring in younger women following hospitalization. Overall, men have a higher 30-day case fatality than women. Women do not fare worse than men after AMI when age and other factors are taken into account. However, men are more likely to die before hospitalization.

More 'malignant' than cancer? Five-year survival following a first admission for heart failure.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic impact of heart failure relative to that of 'high-profile' disease states such as cancer, within the whole population, is unknown. METHODS: All patients with a first admission to any Scottish hospital in 1991 for heart failure, myocardial infarction or the four most common types of cancer specific to men and women were identified. Five-year survival rates and associated loss of expected life-years were then compared. RESULTS: In 1991, 16224 men had an initial hospitalisation for heart failure (n=3241), myocardial infarction (n=6932) or cancer of the lung, large bowel, prostate or bladder (n=6051). Similarly, 14842 women were admitted for heart failure (n=3606), myocardial infarction (n=4916), or cancer of the breast, lung, large bowel or ovary (n=6320). With the exception of lung cancer, heart failure was associated with the poorest 5-year survival rate (approximately 25% for both sexes). On an adjusted basis, heart failure was associated with worse long-term survival than bowel cancer in men (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97; P<0.01) and breast cancer in women (odds ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.55-0.64; P<0.001). The overall population rate of expected life-years lost due to heart failure in men was 6.7 years/1000 and for women 5.1 years/1000. CONCLUSION: With the notable exception of lung cancer, heart failure is as 'malignant' as many common types of cancer and is associated with a comparable number of expected life-years lost.

Referral revisited: community financing schemes and emergency transport in rural Africa.

Referral between first and second levels of care in rural African health systems is an extremely complex problem. Problems that have plagued the process of referral include poor service quality, low availability of trained personnel, inadequate supplies of drugs and medical diagnostic equipment and inadequate communication infrastructure. In this paper, the authors analyse the role of transport costs in the utilization of referral and how community health insurance schemes can help reduce the economic burden of transport costs, thereby improving referral utilization and health outcomes. Following the introduction, the authors provide a conceptual framework of the individual-, household- and community-level factors that affect referral in the rural African context, with particular emphasis on the role of the time and monetary costs of transport and the potential role of community risk-sharing schemes. The paper then presents a detailed case study from Kenya where a community has been experimenting with a health insurance scheme which provides emergency transport for emergency referral. Data from the past eight years of experience in northern Kenya suggests that support for the insurance scheme has depended on the reliability of the health system, as well as the seasons and various external problems, such as political interference, drought and insecurity. Conclusions drawn support the idea of community financing schemes for transport, not merely as a life-saving strategy in remote and resource-poor health infrastructures, but also as a means to help build trust in the health system itself and thus improve sustainability through local institutional support.

Trends in case-fatality in 22968 patients admitted for the first time with atrial fibrillation in Scotland, 1986-1995.

BACKGROUND: Although atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality there is a paucity of data describing hospitalisation rates and case-fatality associated with this common arrhythmia. This study examines recent trends in first-ever hospitalisations for AF in Scotland. METHODS: Using the linked Scottish Morbidity Record Scheme, we identified all 22968 patients admitted to Scottish hospitals for the first time with a principal diagnosis of AF between 1986 and 1995. For each calendar year we calculated short (30-day) and medium (31 day to 2 years) case-fatality rates. Adjusting for each patient's age, sex, deprivation status, concurrent diagnoses and prior hospitalisation status, we examined whether case-fatality rates had significantly improved during this 10-year period. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 1995 the number of men hospitalised for the first time with AF increased by 926 (125%) to 1730 per annum and the number of women and by 875 (105%) to 1712 (both P<0.001). Hospitalisation rates increased from 0.31 to 0.70/1000 men and from 0.32 to 0.65/1000 women (both P<0.001). By the end of this period the proportion of men had increased from 48 to 50%. In both sexes, the median age of patients rose--in men from 66 to 68 years and in women from 74 to 75 years (both P<0.01). Despite the increasing age of patients and greater comorbidity, short-term (30-day) case-fatality declined from 4.0 to 3.1% in men (P<0.001) and 4.1 to 3.8% (P<0.01) in women. Similarly, medium-term (31-day to 2-year) case-fatality fell from 25 to 22% in men and 27 to 25% (both P<0.001) in women. Adjusting for the age, sex, extent of deprivation, secondary diagnoses and prior hospitalisation of hospitalised patients, we found that the risk of short-term case-fatality in the 1995 male and female cohort significantly declined by 21% (P<0.05) and 24% (P<0.05), respectively, in comparison to the 1986 cohort. The adjusted risk of case-fatality in the medium term also declined significantly in men by 30% (P<0.05) over this period and by 20% (P<0.05) in women relative to 1986. CONCLUSION: The number of first-ever hospitalisations for AF has increased twofold during the 10-year period 1986-1995. Although the age of patients has progressively increased during this period, short and medium case-fatality rates have declined, especially in men. This may partly reflect better treatment of AF. However, changing admission thresholds and other factors could also have led to an apparent improvement in prognosis. Nevertheless, medium-term case fatality remains substantial after a first ever admission to hospital with AF.

"It's not what you know, but who you knew": examining the relationship between behavior change and AIDS mortality in Africa.

Until there is an effective vaccine, changing sexual behavior (e.g., use of condoms or fewer partners) is still the only course of action that can slow the spread of HIV for most Africans. But exactly which factors influence behavior change and how are still debated. This article examines the notion that as the HIV/AIDS epidemic strengthens and spreads through communities in Africa, and mortality mounts, behaviors that prevent transmission should be changing. We focus on men in three countries--Uganda, Kenya, and Zambia--examining determinants of their behavior change, and analyze the relative importance of knowing someone who has died of AIDS as compared with other factors such as age, education level, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, economic status, and marital status. Data from three DHS surveys in Uganda (1995), Zambia (1996), and Kenya (1998) are fitted to a model predicting behavior change. Results from this cross-sectional, multinational study suggest that married and working men aged 20-40 are significantly more likely to have changed their behavior. Personal experience of AIDS is a significant predictor of behavior change in Uganda and Zambia, and is marginally significant in Kenya. One implication in the context of the epidemic is that behavior change is partly determined by the high level of mortality experienced by African communities. A second implication is that higher levels of disclosure, or lower levels of denial of AIDS as a cause of death, may help individuals change their behavior.

Long-term outcome of low-risk patients attending a rapid-assessment chest pain clinic.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the long-term outcome of patients evaluated in a rapid assessment chest pain clinic (RACPC): are "low-risk" patients safely reassured? DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Staff grade-led RACPC in an urban teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: 3378 patients (51% male), attending the RACPC between April 1996 and February 2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death, coronary mortality, morbidity and revascularisation over a median follow-up of 6 years. Coronary standardised mortality ratio (SMR). RESULTS: 2036 (60.3%) patients were categorised as "low risk", 957 (28.3%) as having "stable coronary artery disease" and 214 (6.3%) as being an "acute coronary syndrome". During the study, 3.6% of patients in the low risk category, 11.9% in the stable coronary artery disease category and 24.6% in the acute coronary syndrome category died from coronary artery disease or had a myocardial infarction. 5.5%, 18.2% and 18.4%, respectively, died from any cause. Compared to the local population (coronary SMR = 100), our "low risk/non-coronary chest pain" cohort had a coronary SMR of 51 (95% CI 31 to 83), the "stable coronary artery disease" cohort 240 (187 to 308) and the "acute coronary syndrome" cohort 780 (509 to 1196). CONCLUSION: The RACPC was effective at triaging patients with chest pain. Patients identified as at "low risk" were unlikely to have an adverse coronary outcome and were appropriately reassured.

Long-term cardiovascular consequences of obesity: 20-year follow-up of more than 15 000 middle-aged men and women (the Renfrew-Paisley study).

AIMS: To examine the long-term cardiovascular consequences of obesity and project the cardiovascular consequences of the recent increase in prevalence of obesity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1972 and 1976, 15 402 individuals aged 45-64, living in two towns in the west of Scotland underwent comprehensive cardiovascular screening. We analysed all deaths and hospitalizations for cardiovascular reasons occurring over the subsequent 20 years according to baseline body mass index (BMI) category. Compared with normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-24.9), obesity (BMI > or =30) was associated with an increased adjusted risk of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio for death or hospital admission: 1.60, 95% CI 1.45-1.78), heart failure (2.09, 1.68-2.59), stroke (1.41, 1.21-1.65), venous thrombo-embolism (2.29, 1.60-3.30), and atrial fibrillation (1.75, 1.17-2.65). Obesity was associated with nine additional cardiovascular deaths and 36 additional cardiovascular hospital admissions for every 100 affected middle-aged men over the subsequent 20 years (seven deaths and 28 admissions in women). Assuming no change in cardiovascular risk profile and outcomes related to obesity, the increase in prevalence in 1998, when compared with 1972, is projected to lead to an additional four cardiovascular deaths and 14 admissions per 100 middle-aged men and women over the next 20 years. CONCLUSION: Obesity is associated with an increase in a broad range of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Consideration of only coronary, only fatal, and only first events greatly underestimates the cardiovascular consequences of obesity.

A population study of the long-term consequences of Rose angina: 20-year follow-up of the Renfrew-Paisley study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the long-term cardiovascular consequences of angina in a large epidemiological study. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study conducted between 1972 and 1976 with 20 years of follow-up (the Renfrew-Paisley Study). SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, West Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 7048 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 years who underwent comprehensive cardiovascular screening at baseline, including the Rose Angina Questionnaire and electrocardiography (ECG). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All deaths and hospitalisations for cardiovascular reasons occurring over the subsequent 20 years, according to the baseline Rose angina score and baseline ECG. RESULTS: At baseline, 669 (9.5%) men and 799 (9.6%) women had angina on Rose Angina Questionnaire. All-cause mortality for those with Rose angina was 67.7% in men and 43.3% in women at 20 years compared with 45.4% and 30.4%, respectively, in those without angina (p<0.001). Values are expressed as hazards ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI). In a multivariate analysis, men with Rose angina had an increased risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation (1.49 (1.33 to 1.66), myocardial infarction (1.63 (1.41 to 1.85)) or heart failure (1.54 (1.13 to 2.10)) compared with men without angina. The corresponding HR (95% CI) for women were 1.38 (1.23 to 1.55), 1.56 (1.31 to 1.85) and 1.92 (1.44 to 2.56). An abnormality on the electrocardiogram (ECG) increased risk further, and both angina and an abnormality on the ECG increased risk most of all compared with those with neither angina nor ischaemic changes on the ECG. Compared with men, women with Rose angina were less likely to have a cardiovascular event (0.54 (0.46 to 0.64)) or myocardial infarction (0.44 (0.35 to 0.56)), although there was no sex difference in the risk of stroke (1.11 (0.75 to 1.65)), atrial fibrillation (0.84 (0.38 to 1.87)) or heart failure (0.79 (0.51 to 1.21)). CONCLUSIONS: Angina in middle age substantially increases the risk of death, myocardial infarction, heart failure and other cardiovascular events.

Prevalence, incidence, primary care burden and medical treatment of angina in Scotland: age, sex and socioeconomic disparities: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden and treatment of angina in Scotland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 2001 and 31 March 2002. SETTING: 55 primary care practices (362 155 patients). PARTICIPANTS: 9508 patients with angina. RESULTS: The prevalence of angina in Scotland was 28/1000 in men and 25/1000 in women (p < 0.05) and increased with age. The prevalence of angina also increased with increasing socioeconomic deprivation from 18/1000 in the least deprived category to 31/1000 in the most deprived group (p < 0.001 for trend). The incidence of angina was higher in men (1.8/1000) than in women (1.4/1000) (p = 0.004) and increased with increasing age and socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomically deprived patients (0.48 contacts/patient among the most deprived) were less likely than affluent patients (0.58 contacts/patient among the least deprived) to see their general practitioner on an ongoing basis p = 0.006 for trend). Among men, 52% were prescribed beta blockers, 44% calcium channel blockers, 72% aspirin, 54% statins and 36% angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers. The corresponding prescription rates for women were 46% (p < 0.001), 41% (p = 0.02), 69% (p < 0.001), 45% (p < 0.001) and 30% (p < 0.001). Among patients < 75 years old 52% were prescribed a beta blocker and 58% a statin. The corresponding figures for patients >or= 75 years were 42% (p < 0.001) and 31% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Angina is a common condition, more so in men than in women. Socioeconomically deprived patients are more likely to have angina but are less likely to consult their general practitioner. Guideline-recommended treatments for angina are underused in women and older patients. These suboptimal practice patterns, which are worst in older women, are of particular concern, as in Scotland more women (and particularly older women) than men have angina.

Short-term and long-term outcomes in 133,429 emergency patients admitted with angina or myocardial infarction in Scotland, 1990-2000: population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse short- and long-term outcomes and prognostic factors in a large population-based cohort of unselected patients with a first emergency admission for suspected acute coronary syndrome between 1990 and 2000 in Scotland. METHODS: All first emergency admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and all first emergency admissions for angina (the proxy for unstable angina) between 1990 and 2000 in Scotland (population 5.1 million) were identified. Survival to five years was examined by Cox multivariate modelling to examine the independent prognostic effects of diagnosis, age, sex, year of admission, socioeconomic deprivation and co-morbidity. RESULTS: In Scotland between 1990 and 2000, 133,429 individual patients had a first emergency admission for suspected acute coronary syndrome: 96 026 with AMI and 37,403 with angina. After exclusion of deaths within 30 days, crude five-year case fatality was similarly poor for patients with angina and those with AMI (23.9% v 21.6% in men and 23.5% v 26.0% in women). The longer-term risk of a subsequent fatal or non-fatal event in the five years after first hospital admission was high: 54% in men after AMI (53% in women) and 56% after angina (49% in women). Event rates increased threefold with increasing age and 20-60% with different co-morbidities, but were 11-34% lower in women. CONCLUSIONS: Longer-term case fatality was similarly high in patients with angina and in survivors of AMI, about 5% a year. Furthermore, half the patients experienced a fatal or non-fatal event within five years. These data may strengthen the case for aggressive secondary prevention in all patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome.

Reduced between-hospital variation in short term survival after acute myocardial infarction: the result of improved cardiac care?

OBJECTIVES: To re-examine interhospital variation in 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) 10 years on to see whether the appointment of new cardiologists and their involvement in emergency care has improved outcome after AMI. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Acute hospitals in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 61,484 patients with a first AMI over two time periods: 1988-1991; and 1998-2001. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30 day survival. RESULTS: Between 1988 and 1991, median 30 day survival was 79.2% (interhospital range 72.1-85.1%). The difference between highest and lowest was 13.0 percentage points (age and sex adjusted, 12.1 percentage points). Between 1998 and 2001, median survival rose to 81.6% (and range decreased to 78.0-85.6%) with a difference of 7.6 (adjusted 8.8) percentage points. Admission hospital was an independent predictor of outcome at 30 days during the two time periods (p < 0.001). Over the period 1988-1991, the odds ratio for death ranged, between hospitals, from 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 0.88) to 1.50 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.89) and for the period 1998-2001 from 0.82 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.13) to 1.46 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.99). The adjusted risk of death was significantly higher than average in nine of 26 hospitals between 1988 and 1991 but in only two hospitals between 1998 and 2001. CONCLUSIONS: The average 30 day case fatality rate after admission with an AMI has fallen substantially over the past 10 years in Scotland. Between-hospital variation is also considerably less notable because of better survival in the previously poorly performing hospitals. This suggests that the greater involvement of cardiologists in the management of AMI has paid dividends.

Patient care appraisal as a method of continuing education.

Patient care appraisal (PCA) is a type of medical audit specifically designed for educational purposes. It can be instituted in solo or group practices. A subject is selected (preferably a commonly treated condition), criteria for care are established (the most educational element of PCA), records of cases are searched to see if these criteria are met, results are reviewed, and corrective action is planned. A follow up audit is then done. This method of CME is currently under study at Dalhousie University's Division of Continuing Medical Education as a possible alternative to formal courses.