Endomysial fibrosis, rather than overall connective tissue content, is the main determinant of conduction disturbances in human atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Although in persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) a complex AF substrate characterized by a high incidence of conduction block has been reported, relatively little is known about AF complexity in paroxysmal AF (pAF). Also, the relative contribution of various aspects of structural alterations to conduction disturbances is not clear. In particular, the contribution of endomysial fibrosis to conduction disturbances during progression of AF has not been studied yet. METHODS AND RESULTS: During cardiac surgery, epicardial high-density mapping was performed in patients with acutely induced (aAF, n = 11), pAF (n = 12), and longstanding persistent AF (persAF, n = 9) on the right atrial (RA) wall, the posterior left atrial wall (pLA) and the LA appendage (LAA). In RA appendages, overall and endomysial (myocyte-to-myocyte distances) fibrosis and connexin 43 (Cx43) distribution were quantified. Unipolar AF electrogram analysis showed a more complex pattern with a larger number of narrower waves, more breakthroughs and a higher fractionation index (FI) in persAF compared with aAF and pAF, with no differences between aAF and pAF. The FI was consistently higher at the pLA compared with the RA. Structurally, Cx43 lateralization increased with AF progression (aAF = 7.5 ± 8.9%, pAF = 24.7 ± 11.1%, persAF = 35.1 ± 11.4%, P < 0.001). Endomysial but not overall fibrosis correlated with AF complexity (r = 0.57, P = 0.001; r = 0.23, P = 0.20; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial fibrillation complexity is highly variable in patients with pAF, but not significantly higher than in patients with acutely induced AF, while in patients with persistent AF complexity is higher. Among the structural alterations studied, endomysial fibrosis, but not overall fibrosis, is the strongest determinant of AF complexity.

Hybrid ablation of atrial fibrillation: A unilateral left-sided thoracoscopic approach.

BACKGROUND: Hybrid ablation (HA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) combines minimally invasive thoracoscopic epicardial ablation with transvenous endocardial electrophysiologic validation and touch-up of incomplete epicardial lesions if needed. While studies have reported on a bilateral thoracoscopic HA approach, data on a unilateral left-sided approach are scarce. AIM: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of a unilateral left-sided thoracoscopic approach. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively gathered cohort of all consecutive patients undergoing a unilateral left-sided HA for AF between 2015 and 2018 in the Maastricht University Medical Centre. RESULTS: One-hundred nineteen patients were analyzed (mean age 64 ± 8, 28% female, mean body mass index 28 ± 4 kg/m2 , median CHA2 DS2 -VASc Score 2 [1-3], [longstanding]-persistent AF 71%, previous catheter ablation 44%). In all patients, a unilateral left-sided HA consisting of pulmonary vein (PV) isolation, posterior left atrial (LA) wall isolation, and LA appendage exclusion was attempted. Epicardial (n = 59) and/or endocardial validation (n = 81) was performed and endocardial touch-up was performed in 33 patients. Major peri-operative complications occurred in 5% of all patients. After 12 and 24 months, the probability of being free from supraventricular tachyarrhythmia recurrence was 80% [73-87] and 67% [58-76], respectively, when allowing antiarrhythmic drugs. CONCLUSION: Unilateral left-sided hybrid AF ablation is an efficacious and safe approach to treat patients with paroxysmal and (longstanding) persistent AF. Future studies should compare a unilateral with a bilateral approach to determine whether a left-sided approach is as efficacious as a bilateral approach and allows for less complications.

A hybrid approach to complex arrhythmias.

Despite many years of research, the different aspects of the mechanism of atrial fibrillation (AF) are still incompletely understood. And although the latest guidelines recommend catheter ablation with pulmonary vein isolation as a rhythm control strategy, long-term results in persistent and long-standing persistent AF are suboptimal. Historically, a mechanistic-based patient-tailored approach for the treatment of AF was impossible because of the lack real-time mapping techniques and advanced ablation tools. Therefore, surgeons created lesion sets based upon the anatomy of both atria and the safety of the incisions made by the knife. These complex open-heart procedures had to be performed through a sternotomy on the arrested heart and where therefore not generally adopted. The use of controlled energy sources such as cryothermy and radiofrequency where the first step to make the creation of these lesions less complex. With the development and improvement of electrophysiology techniques and catheters, this invasive and solely anatomical approach could again be partially redesigned. Now less invasive, it prepared the way for collaboration between electrophysiologists working on the endocardial side of the heart and cardiac surgeons providing epicardial access. The introduction of video-assisted technology and hybrid procedures has further increased the possibilities of new successful therapies. Now more than 40 years since the beginning of this exciting maze of AF procedures and still working towards a less aggressive and more comprehensive approach we give an overview of the history of the different minimally invasive surgical solutions and of the hybrid approach.

Incidence, prevalence, and trajectories of repetitive conduction patterns in human atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Repetitive conduction patterns in atrial fibrillation (AF) may reflect anatomical structures harbouring preferential conduction paths and indicate the presence of stationary sources for AF. Recently, we demonstrated a novel technique to detect repetitive patterns in high-density contact mapping of AF. As a first step towards repetitive pattern mapping to guide AF ablation, we determined the incidence, prevalence, and trajectories of repetitive conduction patterns in epicardial contact mapping of paroxysmal and persistent AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A 256-channel mapping array was used to record epicardial left and right AF electrograms in persistent AF (persAF, n = 9) and paroxysmal AF (pAF, n = 11) patients. Intervals containing repetitive conduction patterns were detected using recurrence plots. Activation movies, preferential conduction direction, and average activation sequence were used to characterize and classify conduction patterns. Repetitive patterns were identified in 33/40 recordings. Repetitive patterns were more prevalent in pAF compared with persAF [pAF: median 59%, inter-quartile range (41-72) vs. persAF: 39% (0-51), P < 0.01], larger [pAF: = 1.54 (1.15-1.96) vs. persAF: 1.16 (0.74-1.56) cm2, P < 0.001), and more stable [normalized preferentiality (0-1) pAF: 0.38 (0.25-0.50) vs. persAF: 0.23 (0-0.33), P < 0.01]. Most repetitive patterns were peripheral waves (87%), often with conduction block (69%), while breakthroughs (9%) and re-entries (2%) occurred less frequently. CONCLUSION: High-density epicardial contact mapping in AF patients reveals frequent repetitive conduction patterns. In persistent AF patients, repetitive patterns were less frequent, smaller, and more variable than in paroxysmal AF patients. Future research should elucidate whether these patterns can help in finding AF ablation targets.

Role of pre-operative transthoracic echocardiography in predicting post-operative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis.

AIMS: This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to evaluate the role of pre-operative transthoracic echocardiography in predicting post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting on pre-operative echocardiographic predictors of POAF in PubMed, Cochrane library, and Embase. A meta-analysis of echocardiographic predictors of POAF that were identified by at least five different publications was performed. Forty-three publications were included in this systematic review. Echocardiographic predictors for POAF included surrogate parameters for total atrial conduction time (TACT), structural cardiac changes, and functional disturbances. Meta-analysis showed that prolonged pre-operative PA-TDI interval [5 studies, Cohen's d = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.9], increased left atrial volume indexed for body surface area (LAVI) (23 studies, Cohen's d = 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0), and reduced peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) (5 studies, Cohen's d = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8), were associated with POAF incidence. Left atrial volume indexed for body surface was the most important predicting factor in patients without a history of AF. These parameters remained important predictors of POAF in heterogeneous populations with variable age and comorbidities such as coronary artery disease and valvular disease. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis shows that increased TACT, increased LAVI, and reduced PALS are valuable parameters for predicting POAF in the early post-operative phase in a large variety of patients.

Clinical and electrophysiological predictors of device-detected new-onset atrial fibrillation during 3 years after cardiac surgery.

AIMS: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery is an independent predictor of stroke and mortality late after discharge. We aimed to determine the burden and predictors of early (up to 5th postoperative day) and late (after 5th postoperative day) new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) using implantable loop recorders (ILRs) in patients undergoing open chest cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seventy-nine patients without a history of AF undergoing cardiac surgery underwent peri-operative high-resolution mapping of electrically induced AF and were followed 36 months after surgery using an ILR (Reveal XT™). Clinical and electrophysiological predictors of late POAF were assessed. POAF occurred in 46 patients (58%), with early POAF detected in 27 (34%) and late POAF in 37 patients (47%). Late POAF episodes were short-lasting (mostly between 2 min and 6 h) and showed a circadian rhythm pattern with a peak of episode initiation during daytime. In POAF patients, electrically induced AF showed more complex propagation patterns than in patients without POAF. Early POAF, right atrial (RA) volume, prolonged PR time, and advanced age were independent predictors of late POAF. CONCLUSIONS: Late POAF occurred in 47% of patients without a history of AF. Patients who develop early POAF, with higher age, larger RA, or prolonged PR time have a higher risk of developing late POAF and may benefit from intensified rhythm follow-up after cardiac surgery. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV NUMBER: NCT01530750.

Urgent transcatheter aortic valve implantation in an all-comer population: a single-centre experience.

BACKGROUND: When compared with older reports of untreated symptomatic aortic valve stenosis (AoS), urgent transcatheter aortic valve implantation (u-TAVI) seems to improve mortality rates. We performed a single centre, retrospective cohort analysis to characterize our u-TAVI population and to identify potential predictors of worse outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 631 consecutive TAVI patients between 2013 and 2018. Of these patients, 53 were categorized as u-TAVI. Data was collected from the local electronic database. RESULTS: Urgent patients had more often a severely decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF < 30%) and increased creatinine levels (115.5 [88-147] vs 94.5 [78-116] mmol/l; p = 0.001). Urgent patients were hospitalised for 18 [10-28] days before and discharged 6 [4-9] days after the implantation. The incidence of peri-procedural complications and apical implantations was comparable among the study groups. Urgent patients had higher in-hospital (11.3% vs 3.1%; p = 0.011) and 1-year mortality rates (28.2% vs 8.5%, p < 0.001). An increased risk of one-year mortality was associated with urgency (HR 3.5; p < 0.001), apical access (HR 1.9; p = 0.016) and cerebrovascular complications (HR 4.3; p = 0.002). Within the urgent group, the length of pre-hospital admission was the only significant predictor of 1-year mortality (HR 1.037/day; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to elective procedures, u-TAVI led to increased mortality and comparable complication rates. This detrimental effect is most likely related to the length of pre-procedural hospitalisation of urgent patients.

In vivo preliminary test of a new biparietal bidirectional bipolar radiofrequency magnetic coupling system.

BACKGROUND: To test in vivo a new design prototype for radio frequency (RF) ablation. METHODS: A prototype based on a concept of endo-epicardial biparietal bipolar RF ablation with the atrial tissue interposed and consisting of two specular endocardial-epicardial catheters was tested in four pigs (80±5 kg). The endocardial catheter was introduced into the left atrium through the left atrial appendage on the beating heart. The epicardial counterpart was placed manually on the atrial epicardial surface. The coupling of the two catheters was achieved using a neodymium magnet around the gold plate electrode, and RF was applied to the interposed tissue. The hearts were excised, and the lesions were examined using morphometric evaluation. RESULTS: The RF application resulted in transmural lesions in all of the four animals tested. In these animals the maximum endocardial width (Wendo ) was 6.34 ± 0.25, 6.54 ± 0.33, 6.36 ± 0.57, and 6.49 ± 0.96 mm. The pericardial width (Wepi ) was similar: 6.37 ± 0.47, 6.58 ± 0.32, 6.35 ± 0.56 and 6.53 ± 0.94 mm. The lesion area was 924.78, 949.25, 944.25, and 926.05 mm2 , and the lesion volume was 92.47, 94.92, 94.42, and 92.60 mm3 , respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The idea of an endocardial-epicardial bidirectional biparietal bipolar radiofrequency tool such that the atrial tissue is fully interposed between the two RF poles might be promising for future clinical applications. Further research is warranted.

Left Atrial Appendage Management with the Watchman Device during Hybrid Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: In the recent ESC/EACTS guidelines, left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion or exclusion in patients undergoing (thoracoscopic) atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation surgery is recommended. The Watchman device (WD, Boston Scientific, Minnesota) has proved to reduce the risk of thromboembolic events by closing of the LAA, yet no data exist on WD implantation during surgical AF ablation. The objective is to determine if WD implantation is safe and feasible in a hybrid AF ablation setting (i.e., combination of thoracoscopic epicardial surgical and endocardial catheter ablation) and could become subject of further testing to serve as a bail-out in cases in which surgical LAA occlusion methods cannot be applied, due to, for example, severe adhesions. METHODS: In this prospective, single center, pilot study, 10 consecutive patients undergoing a hybrid ablation qualifying for LAA exclusion (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 1) were included. At the end of the hybrid ablation, the LAA was occluded endocardially using the WD. The feasibility endpoint was successful implantation. The safety endpoint concerned major complications. RESULTS: One patient was excluded and replaced because the LAA was insufficiently visible on transesophageal echocardiography. In 10/11 patients, device delivery was successful (mean time: 35 minutes). No major complications occurred. Transesophageal echocardiography after 6 weeks and 6 months showed successful occlusion of the LAA without significant peridevice flow. CONCLUSION: Implantation of the WD seems to be feasible and safe in the setting of hybrid AF ablation and could be an alternative to epicardial occlusion in surgical AF ablation procedures. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings. This trial is registered with NCT02471131.

Clinical Predictors of Device-Detected Atrial Fibrillation During 2.5 Years After Cardiac Surgery: Prospective RACE V Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication after cardiac surgery that is associated with late atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences (late-POAF) and increased morbidity and long-term mortality. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine device-detected POAF incidence and to identify clinical variables associated with POAF, both in patients with and without preoperative AF history. METHODS: A total of 133 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery were prospectively enrolled and continuously monitored with an implantable loop recorder for 2.5 years after surgery. Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography, 12-lead electrocardiogram, blood biomarkers, and clinical data were analyzed to develop prediction models for early- and late-POAF. RESULTS: In patients without preoperative AF history, early-POAF within the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 41 (47.1%) of 87 patients. Late-POAF after the first 90 postoperative days occurred in 22 (25%) of 87 patients, and 20 of these patients also had early-POAF during the first 90 days (20 of 22 [91%]). Increased right atrial minimum volume indexed for body surface area (RAVImin) and early-POAF were independently associated with late-POAF. A prediction model for late-POAF, which included RAVImin >11 mL/m2, age >65 years, and early-POAF, achieved an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For patients with preoperative AF-history, late-POAF recurrences were frequent (22 of 33 [67%]). Increased RAVImin was independently associated with a higher incidence of late-POAF. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with and without AF history, late-POAF recurrences are frequent, including in patients undergoing surgical AF ablation. In patients with no history of AF, late-POAF might be predicted with excellent accuracy by using a combination of preoperative variables. In patients with a history of AF, signs of advanced AF substrate (eg, increased right atrial volumes) were associated with long-term AF recurrences. [Reappraisal of Atrial Fibrillation: Interaction Between Hypercoagulability, Electrical Remodeling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF; NCT03124576].

Left atrial function of patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing thoracoscopic hybrid ablation.

OBJECTIVES: Thoracoscopic hybrid ablation is an effective and safe rhythm control strategy for patients with complex forms of atrial fibrillation. Its effect on left atrial function has not yet been studied. METHODS: In a retrospective single-centre analysis of patients undergoing thoracoscopic hybrid ablation, the left atrial emptying fraction was calculated using the biplane modified Simpson method in the apical 2- and 4-chamber views on transthoracic echocardiography. Left atrial strain (reservoir, conduction and contractility) was quantified using dedicated software. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients were included (mean age 64 years, long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation in 69%, median atrial fibrillation history duration 64 months). At baseline, left atrial function and contractility were poor. The reservoir and contractile strain improved postprocedure compared to baseline [15 (standard deviation (SD): 8) and 17 (SD: 6); P = 0.013; 3 (SD: 5) and 4 (SD: 4), P = 0.008], whereas the left atrial volume indexed to the body surface area was reduced [51 ml/m2 (SD: 14) and 47 ml/m2 (SD: 18), P = 0.0024]. In patients with preoperative (long-standing) persistent atrial fibrillation and in patients with rhythm restoration, improvements in the emptying fraction, (reservoir and contractile) strain and the left ventricular ejection fraction were observed, whereas the left atrial volume decreased (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with severely diseased left atria, improvement in left atrial contractility and in the emptying fraction after thoracoscopic hybrid ablation for atrial fibrillation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation is mainly due to rhythm restoration. Interestingly, the procedure itself also results in improved left atrial reservoir strain and reversed left atrial remodelling by reducing left atrial volume.

Circulating BMP10 Levels Associate With Late Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation and Left Atrial Endomysial Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Serum bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10) blood levels are a marker for history of atrial fibrillation (AF) and for major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with AF, including stroke, AF recurrences after catheter ablations, and mortality. The predictive value of BMP10 in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and association with morphologic properties of atrial tissues are unknown. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to study the correlation between BMP10 levels and preoperative clinical traits, occurrence of early and late postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF), and atrial fibrosis in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS: Patients with and without preoperative AF history undergoing first cardiac surgery were included (RACE V, n = 147). Preoperative blood biomarkers were analyzed, left (n = 114) and right (n = 125) atrial appendage biopsy specimens were histologically investigated after WGA staining, and postoperative rhythm was monitored continuously with implantable loop recorders (n = 133, 2.5 years). RESULTS: Adjusted multinomial logistic regression indicated that BMP10 accurately reflected a history of persistent AF (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.10-1.40, P = 0.001), similar to NT-pro-BNP. BMP10 levels were associated with increased late POAF90 occurrence after adjustment for age, sex, AF history, and early POAF occurrence (HR: 1.07 [per 0.1 ng/mL increase], 95% CI: 1.00-1.14, P = 0.041). Left atrial endomysial fibrosis (standardized ß = 0.22, P = 0.041) but not overall fibrosis (standardized Β = 0.12, P = 0.261) correlated with circulating BMP10 after adjustment for age, sex, AF history, reduced LVF, and valvular surgery indication. CONCLUSIONS: Increased BMP10 levels were associated with persistent AF history, increased late POAF incidence, and LAA endomysial fibrosis in a diverse sample of patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Hybrid atrial fibrillation ablation.

In this state-of-the art review on hybrid atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation, we briefly focus on the pathophysiology of AF, the rationale for the hybrid approach, its technical aspects and the efficacy and safety outcomes after hybrid AF ablation, both from meta-analyses and randomized control trial data. Also, we performed a systematic search to provide a provisional overview of real-world hybrid AF ablation efficacy and safety outcomes. Furthermore, we give an insight into the 'Maastricht approach', an approach that allows us to tailor the ablation procedure to the individual patient. Finally, we reflect on future perspectives with the objective to continue improving our thoracoscopic hybrid AF ablation approach. Based on the review of the available literature, we believe it is fair to state that thoracoscopic hybrid AF ablation is a valid alternative to catheter ablation for the treatment of patients with more persistent forms of AF.

Surgical Coronary Revascularization in Patients With Underlying Atrial Fibrillation: State-of-the-Art Review.

The number of individuals referred for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with preoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is reported to be 8% to 20%. Atrial fibrillation is a known marker of high-risk patients as it was repeatedly found to negatively influence survival. Therefore, when performing surgical revascularization, consideration should be given to the concomitant treatment of the arrhythmia, the clinical consequences of the arrhythmia itself, and the selection of adequate surgical techniques. This state-of-the-art review aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current understanding of, advancements in, and optimal strategies for CABG in patients with underlying AF. The following topics are considered: stroke prevention, prophylaxis and occurrence of postoperative AF, the role of surgical ablation and left atrial appendage occlusion, and an on-pump vs off-pump strategy. Multiple acute complications can occur in patients with preexisting AF undergoing CABG, each of which can have a significant effect on patient outcomes. Long-term results in these patients and the future perspectives of this scientific area were also addressed. Preoperative arrhythmia should always be considered for surgical ablation because such an approach improves prognosis without increasing perioperative risk. While planning a revascularization strategy, it should be noted that although off-pump coronary artery bypass provides better short-term outcomes, conventional on-pump approach may be beneficial at long-term follow-up. By collecting the current evidence, addressing knowledge gaps, and offering practical recommendations, this state-of-the-art review serves as a valuable resource for clinicians involved in the management of patients with AF undergoing CABG, ultimately contributing to improved outcomes and enhanced patient care.

Additional bypass graft or concomitant surgical ablation? Insights from the HEIST registry.

BACKGROUND: Surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation at the time of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting is reluctantly attempted. Meanwhile, complete revascularization is not always possible in these patients. We attempted to counterbalance the long-term benefits of surgical ablation against the risks of incomplete revascularization. METHODS: Atrial fibrillation patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting for multivessel disease between 2012 to 2022 and included in the HEart surgery In atrial fibrillation and Supraventricular Tachycardia registry were divided into complete revascularization, complete revascularization with additional grafts, and incomplete revascularization cohorts; these were further split into surgical ablation and non-surgical ablation subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 8,405 patients (78% men; age 69.3 ± 7.9) were included; of those, 5,918 (70.4%) had complete revascularization, and 556 (6.6%) had surgical ablation performed. Number of anastomoses was 2.7 ± 1.2. The median follow-up was 5.1 [interquartile range 2.1-8.8] years. In patients in whom complete revascularization was achieved, surgical ablation was associated with long-term survival benefit: hazard ratio 0.69; 95% confidence intervals (0.50-0.94); P = .020 compared with grafting additional lesions. Similarly, in patients in whom complete revascularization was not achieved, surgical ablation was associated with a long-term survival benefit of 0.68 (0.49-0.94); P = .019. When comparing surgical ablation on top of incomplete revascularization against complete revascularization without additional grafts or surgical ablation, there was no difference between the 2: 0.84 (0.61-1.17); P = .307, which was also consistent in the propensity score-matched analysis: 0.75 (0.39-1.43); P = .379. CONCLUSION: To achieve complete revascularization is of utmost importance. However, when facing incomplete revascularization at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting in a patient with underlying atrial fibrillation, concomitant surgical ablation on top of incomplete revascularization is associated with similar long-term survival as complete revascularization without surgical ablation.

Machine Learning to Identify Patients at Risk of Developing New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to get an effective machine learning (ML) prediction model of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to highlight the most relevant clinical factors. METHODS: Four ML algorithms were employed to analyze 394 patients undergoing CABG, and their performances were compared: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline, Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. Each algorithm was applied to the training data set to choose the most important features and to build a predictive model. The better performance for each model was obtained by a hyperparameters search, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve metric was selected to choose the best model. The best instances of each model were fed with the test data set, and some metrics were generated to assess the performance of the models on the unseen data set. A traditional logistic regression was also performed to be compared with the machine learning models. RESULTS: Random Forest model showed the best performance, and the top five predictive features included age, preoperative creatinine values, time of aortic cross-clamping, body surface area, and Logistic Euro-Score. CONCLUSIONS: The use of ML for clinical predictions requires an accurate evaluation of the models and their hyperparameters. Random Forest outperformed all other models in the clinical prediction of POAF following CABG.

Stroke reduction by cerebral embolic protection devices in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The use of cerebral embolic protection (CEP) during transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been studied in several randomised trials. We aimed to perform a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised CEP trials, focusing on a clinically relevant reduction in disabling stroke. METHODS: A systematic search was applied to three electronic databases, including trials that randomised TAVI patients to CEP versus standard treatment. The primary outcome was the risk of disabling stroke. Outcomes were presented as relative risk (RR), absolute risk differences (ARDs), numbers needed to treat (NNTs) and the 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The minimal clinically important difference was determined at 1.1% ARD, per expert consensus (NNT 91). The principal Bayesian meta-analysis was performed under a vague prior, and secondary analyses were performed under two informed literature-based priors. RESULTS: Seven randomised studies were included for meta-analysis (n=3996: CEP n=2126, control n=1870). Under a vague prior, the estimated median RR of CEP use for disabling stroke was 0.56 (95% CrI 0.28 to 1.19, derived ARD 0.56% and NNT 179, I2=0%). Although the estimated posterior probability of any benefit was 94.4%, the probability of a clinically relevant effect was 0-0.1% under the vague and informed literature-based priors. Results were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: There is a high probability of a beneficial CEP treatment effect, but this is unlikely to be clinically relevant. These findings suggest that future trials should focus on identifying TAVI patients with an increased baseline risk of stroke, and on the development of new generation devices. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023407006.