An analytical framework to assess SDG targets within the context of WEFE nexus in the Mediterranean region.

Understanding the complex relationships amongst Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystems (WEFE nexus) together with the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is critical for the development of a sustainable and secure future in the Mediterranean area. In this study, we analysed 29 case studies across the Mediterranean region which describe potential success stories for the implementation of good nexus practices. We developed an analytical framework for investigating the impacts on 15 SDG targets and we also explicitly quantified the magnitude of interconnection of nexus pillars with SDGs. Our findings showed that renewable energies have a predominant role on sustainability. Moreover, to achieve the highest positive impacts on economy, environment and society, it is necessary to ensure that both people and ecosystems benefit from a minimum amount of goods/qualities as expected by specific targets like SDG 6.1-4 (clean water and sanitation) and 15.1-3 (life on land), as well as 7.2-3 (affordable and clean energy) that are strongly linked with 13.1 (climate action). We showed also that the strongest interconections between SDG and WEFE are present for the categories of renewable energy system (RED and REW). However, the analysis showed that there is a tendency to focus on a specific sector (e.g. agriculture) and that the good nexus practices implementation is not enough to understand the achievement and progress towards the SDGs. For that reason, we recommended that a more holistic nexus approach including end of supply chain options should be systematically integrated into the project design or evaluation.

River and lake nutrient targets that support ecological status: European scale gap analysis and strategies for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

Eutrophication caused by an excessive presence of nutrients is affecting large portions of European waters with more than 60% of the surface water bodies failing to achieve the primary ambition of water management in Europe, that of good ecological status (GES) with diffuse emission from agriculture being the second most important pressure affecting surface waters. We developed EU wide and regional nutrient targets that define the boundary concentrations between good and moderate status for river and lake total P (TP) and total N (TN) and assessed the gap between actual nutrient concentrations and these targets and considered strategies of nutrient reductions necessary to achieve GES and deliver ecosystem services. The nutrient targets established for rivers ranged from 0.5-3.5 mg/L TN and 11-105 µg/L TP and for lakes 0.5-1.8 mg/L TN and 10-60 µg/L TP. Based on the EU wide targets, 59% of the TN and 57% of the TP river monitoring sites and 64% of the TN and 61% of the TP lake monitoring sites exceed these value and are thus at less than GES. The PCA and step-wise regression for EU basins clearly showed that the basin nutrient export is predominantly related to agricultural inputs. In addition, the step-wise regression models for TN and TP provided the ability to extrapolate the results and quantify the input reductions necessary for reaching the nutrient targets at the EU level. The results suggest that a dual water management strategy would be beneficial and should focus a) on those less polluted rivers and lakes that can easily attain the GES goal and b) on the more highly polluted systems that will improve the delivery of ecosystem services.

Modelling nutrient fluxes into the Mediterranean Sea.

STUDY REGION: Mediterranean River Basins. STUDY FOCUS: Human activities and consequent pollution have put the freshwater and marine ecosystems of the Mediterranean region under pressure, with high risk of eutrophication phenomena. In this study, an extended version of the Geospatial Regression Equation for European Nutrient losses model (GREEN), originally developed for estimating nutrient loads from diffuse and point sources in Europe, was extended to include additional nutrient sources using a grid cell discretization. The spatial resolution is 5 arc minute and the model inputs consist of the latest and best available global data. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION: The results of this study show that during 2003-2007 (baseline), 1.87 Tg/y of total nitrogen (TN), 1.22 Tg/y of nitrates (N-NO3), 0.11 Tg/y of total phosphorus (TP) and 0.03 Tg/y of orthophosphate (P-PO4) were discharged in the Mediterranean Sea. The source apportionment analysis showed that the main contributor to total nitrogen and nitrate loads is agriculture followed by natural background, while for orthophosphate dominant sources include wastewater and scattered dwellings. Two scenarios were investigated to assess sustainable water and nutrient management options, showing that the reduction of 50% of nitrogen surplus leads to a significant reduction of nitrogen emission in regions characterized by high intensity agriculture, while the upgrading of wastewater treatment plants to tertiary level was more efficient for TP reduction.

Identifying efficient agricultural irrigation strategies in Crete.

Water scarcity and droughts are a major concern in most Mediterranean countries. Agriculture is a major user of water in the region and releases significant amounts of surface and ground waters, endangering the sustainable use of the available resources. Best Management Practices (BMPs) can mitigate the agriculture impacts on quantity of surface waters in agricultural catchments. However, identification of efficient BMPs strategies is a complex task, because BMPs costs and effectiveness can vary significantly within a basin. In this study, sustainable agricultural practices were studied based on optimal allocation of irrigation water use for dominant irrigated crops in the island of Crete, Greece. A decision support tool that integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model, an economic model, and multi-objective optimization routines, was used to identify and locate optimal irrigation strategies by considering crop water requirements, impact of irrigation changes on crop productivity, management strategies costs, and crop market prices. Three spatial scales (crop type, fields, and administrative regions) were considered to point out different approaches of efficient management. According to the analysis, depending on the spatial scale and complexity of spatial optimization, water irrigation volumes could be reduced by 32%-70% while preserving current agricultural benefit. Specific management strategies also looked at ways to relocate water between administrative regions (4 prefectures in the case of Crete) to optimize crop benefit while reducing global water use. It was estimated that an optimal reallocation of water could reduce irrigation water volumes by 52% (148 Mm3/y) at the cost of a 7% (48 M€) loss of agricultural income, but maintaining the current agricultural benefit (626.9 M€). The study showed how the identification of optimal, cost-effective irrigation management strategies can potentially address the water scarcity issue that is becoming crucial for the viability of agriculture in the Mediterranean region.

Uncertainty of modelled flow regime for flow-ecological assessment in Southern Europe.

Sustainable water basin management requires characterization of flow regime in river networks impacted by anthropogenic pressures. Flow regime in ungauged catchments under current, future, or natural conditions can be assessed with hydrological models. Developing hydrological models is, however, resource demanding such that decision makers might revert to models that have been developed for other purposes and are made available to them ('off-the-shelf' models). In this study, the impact of epistemic uncertainty of flow regime indicators on flow-ecological assessment was assessed at selected stations with drainage areas ranging from about 400 to almost 90,000km2 in four South European basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava). For each basin, at least two models were employed. Models differed in structure, data input, spatio-temporal resolution, and calibration strategy, reflecting the variety of conditions and purposes for which they were initially developed. The uncertainty of modelled flow regime was assessed by comparing the modelled hydrologic indicators of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and rate of change to those obtained from observed flow. The results showed that modelled flow magnitude indicators at medium and high flows were generally reliable, whereas indicators for flow timing, duration, and rate of change were affected by large uncertainties, with correlation coefficients mostly below 0.50. These findings mirror uncertainty in flow regime indicators assessed with other methods, including from measured streamflow. The large indicator uncertainty may significantly affect assessment of ecological status in freshwater systems, particularly in ungauged catchments. Finally, flow-ecological assessments proved very sensitive to reference flow regime (i.e., without anthropogenic pressures). Model simulations could not adequately capture flow regime in the reference sites comprised in this study. The lack of reliable reference conditions may seriously hamper flow-ecological assessments. This study shows the pressing need for improving assessment of natural flow regime at pan-European scale.

Modelling water and nutrient fluxes in the Danube River Basin with SWAT.

This study provides an innovative process-based modelling approach using the SWAT model and shows its application to support the implementation of the European environmental policies in large river basins. The approach involves several pioneering modelling aspects: the inclusion of current management practices; an innovative calibration and validation methodology of streamflow and water quality; a sequential calibration starting from crop yields, followed by streamflow and nutrients; and the use of concentrations instead of loads in the calibration. The approach was applied in the Danube River Basin (800,000km2), the second largest river basin in Europe, that is under great nutrients pressure. The model was successfully calibrated and validated at multiple gauged stations for the period 1995-2009. About 70% and 61% of monthly streamflow stations reached satisfactory performances in the calibration and validation datasets respectively. N-NO3 monthly concentrations were in good agreement with the observations, albeit SWAT could not represent accurately the spatial variability of the denitrification process. TN and TP concentrations were also well captured. Yet, local discrepancies were detected across the Basin. Baseflow and surface runoff were the main pathways of water pollution. The main sinks of TN and TP diffuse emissions were plant uptake which captured 58% of TN and 92% of TP sources, then soil retention (35% of TN and 2% of TP), riparian filter strips (2% both for TN and TP) and river retention (2% of TN and 4% of TP). Nitrates in the aquifer were estimated to be around 3% of TN sources. New reliable "state-of-the-art" knowledge of water and nutrients fluxes in the Danube Basin were thus provided to be used for assessing the impact of best management practices and for providing support to the implementation of the European Environmental Directives.

Modelling sediment fluxes in the Danube River Basin with SWAT.

Sediment management is of prior concern in the Danube Basin for provision of economic and environmental services. This study aimed at assessing current (1995-2009) sediment fluxes of the Danube Basin with SWAT model and identifying sediment budget knowledge gaps. After hydrologic calibration, hillslope gross erosion and sediment yields were broadly calibrated using ancillary data (measurements in plots and small catchments, and national and European erosion maps). Mean annual sediment concentrations (SSC) from 269 gauging stations (2968 station-year entries; median 19mg/L, interquartile range IQR 10-36mg/L) were used for calibrating in-stream sediments. SSC residuals (simulations-observations) median was 2mg/L (IQR -14; +22mg/L). In the validation dataset (172 gauging stations; 1457 data-entries, median 17mg/L, IQR 10-28), median residual was 9mg/L (IQR -9; +39mg/L). Percent bias in an independent dataset of annual sediment yields (SSY; 689 data-entries in 95 stations; median 52t/km2/y, IQR 20-151t/km2/y) was -21.5%. Overall, basin-wide model performance was considered satisfactory. Sediment fluxes appeared overestimated in some regions (Sava and Velika Morava), and underestimated in others (Siret-Prut and Romanian Danube), but unbiased elsewhere. According to the model, most sediments were generated by hillslope erosion. Streambank degradation contributed about 5% of sediments, and appeared important in high stream power Alpine reaches. Sediment trapping in reservoirs and floodplain deposition was probably underestimated and counterbalanced by high stream deposition. Factor analysis showed that model underestimations were correlated to Alpine and karst areas, whereas underestimations occurred in high seismicity areas of the Lower Danube. Contemporary sediment fluxes were about one third of values reported for the 1980s for several tributaries of the Middle and Lower Danube. Knowledge gaps affecting the sediment budget were identified in the contributions of some erosion processes (glacier erosion, gully erosion and mass movements), and in-stream sediment dynamics.

Adapting SWAT hillslope erosion model to predict sediment concentrations and yields in large Basins.

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used worldwide for water quality assessment and planning. This paper aimed to assess and adapt SWAT hillslope sediment yield model (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, MUSLE) for applications in large basins, i.e. when spatial data is coarse and model units are large; and to develop a robust sediment calibration method for large regions. The Upper Danube Basin (132,000km(2)) was used as case study representative of large European Basins. The MUSLE was modified to reduce sensitivity of sediment yields to the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) size, and to identify appropriate algorithms for estimating hillslope length (L) and slope-length factor (LS). HRUs gross erosion was broadly calibrated against plot data and soil erosion map estimates. Next, mean annual SWAT suspended sediment concentrations (SSC, mg/L) were calibrated and validated against SSC data at 55 gauging stations (622 station-years). SWAT annual specific sediment yields in subbasin reaches (RSSY, t/km(2)/year) were compared to yields measured at 33 gauging stations (87station-years). The best SWAT configuration combined a MUSLE equation modified by the introduction of a threshold area of 0.01km(2) where L and LS were estimated with flow accumulation algorithms. For this configuration, the SSC residual interquartile was less than +/-15mg/L both for the calibration (1995-2004) and the validation (2005-2009) periods. The mean SSC percent bias for 1995-2009 was 24%. RSSY residual interquartile was within +/-10t/km(2)/year, with a mean RSSY percent bias of 12%. Residuals showed no bias with respect to drainage area, slope, or spatial distribution. The use of multiple data types at multiple sites enabled robust simulation of sediment concentrations and yields of the region. The MUSLE modifications are recommended for use in large basins. Based on SWAT simulations, we present a sediment budget for the Upper Danube Basin.