Nutrient enrichment and phytoplankton toxicity influence a diversity of complex dynamics in a fear-induced plankton-fish model.

In this paper, we contemplate the dynamics of an aquatic system consisting of three interacting species, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish. We assume that the evading risk of fish predation induces fear in zooplankton species, which affects its growth dynamics radically. On the other hand, zooplankton develop an anti-predator defense by taking temporary refuge. Interestingly, the system potentially exhibits multi-stable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including multiple saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations with varying levels of nutrients, strength of phytoplankton toxicity, zooplankton refuge size and the cost of fear imposed by fish population. Further, by adding Gaussian white noise, we have extended the deterministic system to its stochastic version. We find that white noise appears to regulate the survival and extinction of model species. Comprehensive numerical simulations are consistent with mathematical results prognosticated by linear analysis. Overall, our study may provide a new insight into the mechanisms of emergence and mitigation of plankton blooms.

Toxicity-mediated regime shifts in a contaminated nutrient-plankton system.

In this article, we contemplate the dynamics of a three-tier system of nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton with a gestation delay of discrete type and a distributed delay in nutrient recycling. Phytoplankton secretion-mediated alteration in the grazing pattern of zooplankton is encapsulated by a Monod-Haldane functional response. We carry out global sensitivity analysis for identifying the crucial model parameters having a significant impact on zooplankton density. The system potentially exhibits bistable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including multiple saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations with varying input rates of nutrients and inhibitory effects of phytoplankton against zooplankton. We observe that the gestation delay in zooplankton is responsible for the emergence of noxious bloom events. Interestingly, when the delay parameter crosses a threshold, the system experiences chaotic disorder, which prognosticates the onset of irregular bloom. Furthermore, by adding Gaussian white noise, we have extended the deterministic model to its stochastic counterpart. We found that white noise appears to regulate the survival and extinction of interacting populations. Comprehensive numerical simulations are consistent with mathematical results prognosticated by linear analysis.

Catastrophic and noncatastrophic population crashes in a bitrophic system with dynamic additional food provision to cooperative predators.

In this article we contemplate the dynamics of an additional food-provided prey-predator system. We assume that the behavior of cooperative predators induces fear in prey, which radically affects the prey's birth and death rates. We observe that the structural instability imposed by strong cooperative hunting among predators goes away with higher intensities of fear levels affecting the prey's reproductive output and mortality. High levels of prey refuge are not conducive to the survival of predators. In such a situation, adequate supply of high-quality additional food is favorable regarding the persistence and stability of the system. Interestingly, the system potentially exhibits two stable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including saddle-node and backward bifurcations, and associated hysteresis effects with prey refuge along with additional food quantity and quality. In the stochastic environment, the system experiences critical transitions through bifurcation-induced tipping events with time-varying additional food for predators. Enhanced disturbance events promote noise-induced switching and tipping events. Finally, our investigation explores whether impending population crashes resulting from the variability of additional food quantity and quality can reliably be predicted using early warning signals in the context of redshifted noise. Overall, our results may provide insights for finding control strategies in the context of community ecology.

Seasonal refuge patterns of phytoplankton trigger irregular bloom events in a contaminated environment.

Several experimental evidences and field data documented that zooplankton may alter its behavioral response in the presence of toxic phytoplankton, reducing its consumption to the point of starvation. This paper is devoted to the mathematical study of such interactions of toxic phytoplankton with grazer zooplankton. The non-toxic phytoplankton is assumed to adopt a density-dependent refuge strategy to avoid over-predation by zooplankton. Both groups of phytoplankton are assumed to suffer direct harm from anthropogenic toxicants, while zooplankton is affected indirectly by ingesting contaminated phytoplankton. We calibrate the proposed model with the field data from Talsari and Digha Mohana, India, and estimate some crucial model parameters consistent with the behavior of the observed data. Our results demonstrate that zooplankton grazing on toxic phytoplankton plays a key role in the emergence or mitigation of plankton blooms. We also highlight the system's potential to exhibit multiple stable configurations under the same ecological conditions. The plankton system experiences significant regime shifts, which are explored through various bifurcation scenarios, such as transcritical and saddle-node bifurcations. These shifts are influenced by changes in refuge capacity, species growth rates, and environmental carrying capacity. Furthermore, we incorporate environmental variations due to seasonal periodic or almost periodic changes, allowing the refuge parameter to be time-dependent. We observe that the forced system exhibits double periodic solutions. Moreover, stronger seasonal variations in the refuge pattern lead to irregular chaotic blooms. In conclusion, the results offer valuable insights into the sustainability of biodiversity, potentially shedding light on the origin of diverse plankton bloom phenomena.