A new approach to Health Benefits Package design: an application of the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi.

An efficient allocation of limited resources in low-income settings offers the opportunity to improve population-health outcomes given the available health system capacity. Efforts to achieve this are often framed through the lens of "health benefits packages" (HBPs), which seek to establish which services the public healthcare system should include in its provision. Analytic approaches widely used to weigh evidence in support of different interventions and inform the broader HBP deliberative process however have limitations. In this work, we propose the individual-based Thanzi La Onse (TLO) model as a uniquely-tailored tool to assist in the evaluation of Malawi-specific HBPs while addressing these limitations. By mechanistically modelling-and calibrating to extensive, country-specific data-the incidence of disease, health-seeking behaviour, and the capacity of the healthcare system to meet the demand for care under realistic constraints on human resources for health available, we were able to simulate the health gains achievable under a number of plausible HBP strategies for the country. We found that the HBP emerging from a linear constrained optimisation analysis (LCOA) achieved the largest health gain-∼8% reduction in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2023 and 2042 compared to the benchmark scenario-by concentrating resources on high-impact treatments. This HBP however incurred a relative excess in DALYs in the first few years of its implementation. Other feasible approaches to prioritisation were assessed, including service prioritisation based on patient characteristics, rather than service type. Unlike the LCOA-based HBP, this approach achieved consistent health gains relative to the benchmark scenario on a year- to-year basis, and a 5% reduction in DALYs over the whole period, which suggests an approach based upon patient characteristics might prove beneficial in the future.

Health workforce needs in Malawi: analysis of the Thanzi La Onse integrated epidemiological model of care.

BACKGROUND: To make the best use of health resources, it is crucial to understand the healthcare needs of a population-including how needs will evolve and respond to changing epidemiological context and patient behaviour-and how this compares to the capabilities to deliver healthcare with the existing workforce. Existing approaches to planning either rely on using observed healthcare demand from a fixed historical period or using models to estimate healthcare needs within a narrow domain (e.g., a specific disease area or health programme). A new data-grounded modelling method is proposed by which healthcare needs and the capabilities of the healthcare workforce can be compared and analysed under a range of scenarios: in particular, when there is much greater propensity for healthcare seeking. METHODS: A model representation of the healthcare workforce, one that formalises how the time of the different cadres is drawn into the provision of units of healthcare, was integrated with an individual-based epidemiological model-the Thanzi La Onse model-that represents mechanistically the development of disease and ill-health and patients' healthcare seeking behaviour. The model was applied in Malawi using routinely available data and the estimates of the volume of health service delivered were tested against officially recorded data. Model estimates of the "time needed" and "time available" for each cadre were compared under different assumptions for whether vacant (or established) posts are filled and healthcare seeking behaviour. RESULTS: The model estimates of volume of each type of service delivered were in good agreement with the available data. The "time needed" for the healthcare workforce greatly exceeded the "time available" (overall by 1.82-fold), especially for pharmacists (6.37-fold) and clinicians (2.83-fold). This discrepancy would be largely mitigated if all vacant posts were filled, but the large discrepancy would remain for pharmacists (2.49-fold). However, if all of those becoming ill did seek care immediately, the "time needed" would increase dramatically and exceed "time supply" (2.11-fold for nurses and midwives, 5.60-fold for clinicians, 9.98-fold for pharmacists) even when there were no vacant positions. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that services are being delivered in less time on average than they should be, or that healthcare workers are working more time than contracted, or a combination of the two. Moreover, the analysis shows that the healthcare system could become overwhelmed if patients were more likely to seek care. It is not yet known what the health consequences of such changes would be but this new model provides-for the first time-a means to examine such questions.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

A qualitative study on the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing health technology assessment in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.

User fee exemption and maternal health care utilisation at mission health facilities in Malawi: An application of disequilibrium theory of demand and supply.

The literature on health care utilisation has focussed on the interaction of supply and demand factors in determining utilisation. At the aggregate level, studies have modelled the simultaneity of demand and supply, and different methods have been used. This study proposes an alternative framework for modelling utilisation, which yet separates demand and supply factors, the disequilibrium theory of demand and supply. This theory is useful in modelling data that reflect that not all health care demand is met by health care providers and not all health care supply is taken by consumers. Such disequilibrium arises due to rigid prices and quantity rationing. We use the theory to model maternal health care utilisation and user fee exemption at mission health care facilities in Malawi. The study uses switching regression methods and data from the Malawi Health Management Information System. Results show that user fee exemption is associated with increased utilisation of maternal health care. Demand and supply regime classification shows that many of the health facilities met much of the demand, whereas the rest only provided as much maternal care as their maximum capacity. In the latter case, intended maternal health care utilisation targets may not have been met.

Revision of Malawi's Health Benefits Package: A Critical Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation.

OBJECTIVES: Health benefits packages (HBPs), which define specific health services that can be offered for free or at a reduced cost to fit within public revenues, have been recommended for over 30 years to maximize population health in resource-limited settings. However, there remain gaps in defining and operationalizing HBPs. We propose a combination of design and prioritization methods along with practical strategies to improve the implementation of future iterations of the HBP in Malawi. METHODS: For HBP development for Malawi's Third Health Sector Strategic Plan, we combined cost-effectiveness analysis with a quantitative, consultative multicriteria decision analysis. Throughout the process of development, we documented challenges and opportunities to improve HBP design and application. RESULTS: The primary and secondary HBP included 115 interventions. However, the definition of an HBP is just one step toward focusing limited resources, with functional operationalization as the most critical component. Full implementation of previous HBPs has been limited by challenges in aid coordination with the misalignment of nonfungible vertical donor funding for the HBP without accounting for the complexity and interconnectedness of the health system. Opportunities for improved application include creation of a complementary minimum health service package to guide overall resource inputs through an integrative approach. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that expanded participatory HBP methods that consider value, equity, and social considerations, along with a shift to providing integrated health service packages at all levels of care, will improve the efficiency of using scarce resources along the journey to universal health coverage.

The economic costs of orthopaedic services: a health system cost analysis of tertiary hospitals in a low-income country.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic injuries are rising globally, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries, constituting 88% of the burden of surgically treatable conditions. While contributing to the highest burden, LMICs also have the least availability of resources to address this growing burden effectively. Studies on the cost-of-service provision in these settings have concentrated on the most common traumatic injuries, leaving an evidence gap on other traumatic injuries. This study aimed to address the gap in understanding the cost of orthopaedic services in low-income settings by conducting a comprehensive costing analysis in two tertiary-level hospitals in Malawi. METHODS: We used a mixed costing methodology, utilising both Top-Down and Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing approaches. Data on resource utilisation, personnel costs, medicines, supplies, capital costs, laboratory costs, radiology service costs, and overhead costs were collected for one year, from July 2021 to June 2022. We conducted a retrospective review of all the available patient files for the period under review. Assumptions on the intensity of service use were based on utilisation patterns observed in patient records. All costs were expressed in 2021 United States Dollars. RESULTS: We conducted a review of 2,372 patient files, 72% of which were male. The median length of stay for all patients was 9.5 days (8-11). The mean weighted cost of treatment across the entire pathway varied, ranging from $195 ($136-$235) for Supracondylar Fractures to $711 ($389-$931) for Proximal Ulna Fractures. The main cost components were personnel (30%) and medicines and supplies (23%). Within diagnosis-specific costs, the length of stay was the most significant cost driver, contributing to the substantial disparity in treatment costs between the two hospitals. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the critical role of orthopaedic care in LMICs and the need for context-specific cost data. It highlights the variation in cost drivers and resource utilisation patterns between hospitals, emphasising the importance of tailored healthcare planning and resource allocation approaches. Understanding the costs of surgical interventions in LMICs can inform policy decisions and improve access to essential orthopaedic services, potentially reducing the disease burden associated with trauma-related injuries. We recommend that future studies focus on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of orthopaedic interventions, particularly those that have not been analysed within the existing literature.

Donor coordination to support universal health coverage in Malawi.

Development assistance is a major source of financing for health in least developed countries. However, persistent aid fragmentation has led to inefficiencies and health inequities and constrained progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Malawi is a case study for this global challenge, with 55% of total health expenditure funded by donors and fragmentation across 166 financing sources and 265 implementing partners. This often leads to poor coordination and misalignment between government priorities and donor projects. To address these challenges, the Malawi Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed and implemented an architecture of aid coordination tools and processes. Using a case study approach, we documented the iterative development, implementation and institutionalization of these tools, which was led by the MoH with technical assistance from the Clinton Health Access Initiative. We reviewed the grey literature, including relevant policy documents, planning tools and databases of government/partner funding commitments, and drew upon the authors' experiences in designing, implementing and scaling up these tools. Overall, the iterative use and revision of these tools by the Government of Malawi across the national and subnational levels, including integration with the government's public financial management system, was critical to successful uptake. The tools are used to inform government and partner resource allocation decisions, assess financing and gaps for national and district plans and inform donor grant applications. As Malawi has launched the Health Sector Strategic Plan 2023-2030, these tools are being adapted for the 'One Plan, One Budget and One Report' approach. However, while the tools are an incremental mechanism to strengthen aid alignment, success has been constrained by the larger context of power imbalances and misaligned incentives between the donor community and the Government of Malawi. Reform of the aid architecture is therefore critical to ensure that these tools achieve maximum impact in Malawi's journey towards UHC.

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care. METHODS: We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi. Two datasets were prepared: unadjusted and adjusted; for the latter, unreported monthly data entries for a facility were filled in through systematic rules based on reported mean values of that facility or facility type and considering both reporting rates and comparability with published data. Using statistical descriptive methods, we first described the patterns of service utilisation in pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). We then tested for evidence of departures from this routine pattern, i.e., service volume delivered being below recent average by more than two standard deviations was viewed as a substantial reduction, and calculated the cumulative net differences of service volume during the pandemic period (2020-2021), in aggregate and within each specific facility. RESULTS: Evidence of disruptions were found: from April 2020 to December 2021, services delivered of several types were reduced across primary and secondary levels of care-including inpatient care (-20.03% less total interactions in that period compared to the recent average), immunisation (-17.61%), malnutrition treatment (-34.5%), accidents and emergency services (-16.03%), HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses) tests (-27.34%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations for adults (-33.52%), and ART treatment for paediatrics (-41.32%). Reductions of service volume were greatest in the first wave of the pandemic during April-August 2020, and whereas some service types rebounded quickly (e.g., outpatient visits from -17.7% to +3.23%), many others persisted at lower level through 2021 (e.g., under-five malnutrition treatment from -15.24% to -42.23%). The total reduced service volume between April 2020 and December 2021 was 8 066 956 (-10.23%), equating to 444 units per 1000 persons. CONCLUSION: We have found substantial evidence for reductions in health service delivered in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic which may have potential health consequences, the effect of which should inform how decisions are taken in the future to maximise the resilience of healthcare system during similar events.

Factors associated with medical consumable availability in level 1 facilities in Malawi: a secondary analysis of a facility census.

BACKGROUND: Medical consumable stock-outs negatively affect health outcomes not only by impeding or delaying the effective delivery of services but also by discouraging patients from seeking care. Consequently, supply chain strengthening is being adopted as a key component of national health strategies. However, evidence on the factors associated with increased consumable availability is limited. METHODS: In this study, we used the 2018-19 Harmonised Health Facility Assessment data from Malawi to identify the factors associated with the availability of consumables in level 1 facilities, ie, rural hospitals or health centres with a small number of beds and a sparsely equipped operating room for minor procedures. We estimate a multilevel logistic regression model with a binary outcome variable representing consumable availability (of 130 consumables across 940 facilities) and explanatory variables chosen based on current evidence. Further subgroup analyses are carried out to assess the presence of effect modification by level of care, facility ownership, and a categorisation of consumables by public health or disease programme, Malawi's Essential Medicine List classification, whether the consumable is a drug or not, and level of average national availability. FINDINGS: Our results suggest that the following characteristics had a positive association with consumable availability-level 1b facilities or community hospitals had 64% (odds ratio [OR] 1·64, 95% CI 1·37-1·97) higher odds of consumable availability than level 1a facilities or health centres, Christian Health Association of Malawi and private-for-profit ownership had 63% (1·63, 1·40-1·89) and 49% (1·49, 1·24-1·80) higher odds respectively than government-owned facilities, the availability of a computer had 46% (1·46, 1·32-1·62) higher odds than in its absence, pharmacists managing drug orders had 85% (1·85, 1·40-2·44) higher odds than a drug store clerk, proximity to the corresponding regional administrative office (facilities greater than 75 km away had 21% lower odds [0·79, 0·63-0·98] than facilities within 10 km of the district health office), and having three drug order fulfilments in the 3 months before the survey had 14% (1·14, 1·02-1·27) higher odds than one fulfilment in 3 months. Further, consumables categorised as vital in Malawi's Essential Medicine List performed considerably better with 235% (OR 3·35, 95% CI 1·60-7·05) higher odds than other essential or non-essential consumables and drugs performed worse with 79% (0·21, 0·08-0·51) lower odds than other medical consumables in terms of availability across facilities. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence on the areas of intervention with potential to improve consumable availability. Further exploration of the health and resource consequences of the strategies discussed will be useful in guiding investments into supply chain strengthening. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund (Thanzi La Onse; reference MR/P028004/1), the Wellcome Trust (Thanzi La Mawa; reference 223120/Z/21/Z), the UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, and the EU (reference MR/R015600/1).

Proposing the "Value- and Evidence-Based decision making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework for Priority-Setting and knowledge translation in low and Middle-Income Countries: A novel framework for Decision-Making in Low-and middle income countries like Malawi.

The existence and availability of evidence on its own does not guarantee that the evidence will be demanded and used by decision and policy makers. Decision and policy-makers, especially in low-income settings, often confront ethical dilemmas about determining the best available evidence and its utilization. This dilemma can be in the form of conflict of evidence, scientific and ethical equipoise and competing evidence or interests. Consequently, decisions are made based on convenience, personal preference, donor requirements, and political and social considerations which can result in wastage of resources and inefficiency. To mitigate these challenges, the use of "Value- and Evidence-Based Decision Making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework is proposed. This framework was developed by Joseph Mfutso-Bengo in 2017 through a desk review. It was pretested through a scoping study under the Thanzi la Onse (TLO) Project which assessed the feasibility and acceptability of using the VEDMAP as a priority setting tool for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. The study used mixed methods whereby it conducted a desk review to map out and benchmark normative values of different countries in Africa and HTA; focus group discussion and key informant interviews to map out the actual (practised) values in Malawi. The results of this review confirmed that the use of VEDMAP framework was feasible and acceptable and can bring efficiency, traceability, transparency and integrity in decision- policy making process and implementation.

Assessing the potential of HTA to inform resource allocation decisions in low-income settings: The case of Malawi.

Health technology assessment (HTA) offers a set of analytical tools to support health systems' decisions about resource allocation. Although there is increasing interest in these tools across the world, including in some middle-income countries, they remain rarely used in low-income countries (LICs). In general, the focus of HTA is narrow, mostly limited to assessments of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. However, the principles of HTA can be used to support a broader series of decisions regarding new health technologies. We examine the potential for this broad use of HTA in LICs, with a focus on Malawi. We develop a framework to classify the main decisions on health technologies within health systems. The framework covers decisions on identifying and prioritizing technologies for detailed assessment, deciding whether to adopt an intervention, assessing alternative investments for implementation and scale-up, and undertaking further research activities. We consider the relevance of the framework to policymakers in Malawi and we use two health technologies as examples to investigate the main barriers and enablers to the use of HTA methods. Although the scarcity of local data, expertise, and other resources could risk limiting the operationalisation of HTA in LICs, we argue that even in highly resource constrained health systems, such as in Malawi, the use of HTA to support a broad range of decisions is feasible and desirable.

Cost of wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: Evidence from pilot sites in Blantyre, Malawi and Kathmandu, Nepal.

Environmental surveillance of rivers and wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 detection has been explored as an innovative way to surveil the pandemic. This study estimated the economic costs of conducting wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 to inform decision making if countries consider continuing these efforts. We estimated the cost of two SARS-CoV-2 environmental surveillance pilot studies conducted in Blantyre, Malawi, and Kathmandu, Nepal. The cost estimation accounted for the consumables, equipment, and human resource time costs used for environmental surveillance from sample selection until pathogen detection and overhead costs for the projects. Costs are reported in 2021 US$ and reported as costs per month, per sample and person per year. The estimated costs for environmental surveillance range from $6,175 to $8,272 per month (Blantyre site) and $16,756 to $30,050 (Kathmandu site). The number of samples processed per month ranged from 84 to 336 at the Blantyre site and 96 to 250 at the Kathmandu site. Consumables costs are variable costs influenced by the number of samples processed and are a large share of the monthly costs for ES (ranging from 39% to 72%). The relatively higher costs per month for the Kathmandu site were attributable to the higher allocation of dedicated human resources and equipment to environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 compared to the Blantyre site where these resources were shared with other activities. The average cost per sample ranged from $25 to $74 (Blantyre) and $120 to $175 (Kathmandu). There were associated economies of scale for human resources and equipment costs with increased sample processing and sharing of resources with other activities. The cost per person in the catchment area per year ranged from $0.07 to $0.10 in Blantyre and $0.07 to $0.13 in Kathmandu. Environmental surveillance may be a low-cost early warning signal for SARS-CoV-2 that can complement other SARS-CoV2 monitoring efforts.

Costing and cost-effectiveness of Cepheid Xpert HIV -1 Qual Assay using whole blood protocol versus PCR by Abbott Systems in Malawi.

Background: Timely diagnosis of HIV in infants and children is an urgent priority. In Malawi, 40,000 infants annually are HIV exposed. However, gold standard polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) based testing requires centralised laboratories, causing turn-around times (TAT) of 2 to 3 months and significant loss to follow-up. If feasible and acceptable, minimising diagnostic delays through HIV Point-of-care-testing (POCT) may be cost-effective. We assessed whether POCT Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay whole blood (XpertHIV) was more cost-effective than PCR. Methods: From July-August 2018, 700 PCR Abbott tests using dried blood spots (DBS) were performed on 680 participants who enrolled on the feasibility, acceptability and performance of the XpertHIV study. Newly identified HIV-positive We conducted a cost-minimisation and cost-effectiveness analysis of XpertHIV against PCR, as the standard of care. A random sample of 200 caregivers from the 680 participants had semi-structured interviews to explore costs from a societal perspective of XpertHIV at Mulanje District Hospital, Malawi. Analysis used TAT as the primary outcome measure. Results were extrapolated from the study period (29 days) to a year (240 working days). Sensitivity analyses characterised individual and joint parameter uncertainty and estimated patient cost per test. Results: During the study period, XpertHIV was cost-minimising at $42.34 per test compared to $66.66 for PCR. Over a year, XpertHIV remained cost-minimising at $16.12 compared to PCR at $27.06. From the patient perspective (travel, food, lost productivity), the cost per test of XpertHIV was $2.45. XpertHIV had a mean TAT of 7.10 hours compared to 153.15 hours for PCR. Extrapolates accounting for equipment costs, lab consumables and losses to follow up estimated annual savings of $2,193,538.88 if XpertHIV is used nationally, as opposed to PCR. Conclusions: This preliminary evidence suggests that adopting POCT XpertHIV will save time, allowing HIV-exposed infants to receive prompt care and may improve outcomes. The Malawi government will pay less due to XpertHIV's cost savings and associated benefits.

Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear. METHODS: We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents. RESULTS: Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22-58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model. CONCLUSIONS: Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

Developing Malawi's Universal Health Coverage Index.

The inclusion of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in the Sustainable Development Goals (target 3.8) cemented its position as a key global health priority and highlighted the need to measure it, and to track progress over time. In this study, we aimed to develop a summary measure of UHC for Malawi which will act as a baseline for tracking UHC index between 2020 and 2030. We developed a summary index for UHC by computing the geometric mean of indicators for the two dimensions of UHC; service coverage (SC) and financial risk protection (FRP). The indicators included for both the SC and FRP were based on the Government of Malawi's essential health package (EHP) and data availability. The SC indicator was computed as the geometric mean of preventive and treatment indicators, whereas the FRP indicator was computed as a geometric mean of the incidence of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, and the impoverishing effect of healthcare payments indicators. Data were obtained from various sources including the 2015/2016 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS); the 2016/2017 fourth integrated household survey (IHS4); 2018/2019 Malawi Harmonized Health Facility Assessment (HHFA); the MoH HIV and TB data, and the WHO. We also conducted various combinations of input indicators and weights as part of sensitivity analysis to validate the results. The overall summary measure of UHC index was 69.68% after adjusting for inequality and unadjusted measure was 75.03%. As regards the two UHC components, the inequality adjusted summary indicator for SC was estimated to be 51.59% and unadjusted measure was 57.77%, whereas the inequality adjusted summary indicator for FRP was 94.10% and unweighted 97.45%. Overall, with the UHC index of 69.68%, Malawi is doing relatively well in comparison to other low income countries, however, significant gaps and inequalities still exist in Malawi's quest to achieve UHC especially in the SC indicators. It is imperative that targeted health financing and other health sector reforms are made to achieve this goal. Such reforms should be focused on both SC and FRP rather than on only either, of the dimensions of UHC.

Health Sector Resource Mapping in Malawi: Sharing the Collection and Use of Budget Data for Evidence-Based Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, the Ministry of Health in Malawi developed and institutionalized a resource-tracking process, known as resource mapping (RM), to collect information on planned funding flows across the health sector to support resource allocation and mobilization decisions. We analyze the RM process and tools and describe key uses of the data for health financing decision making to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). METHODS: We applied a case study approach, written as a collaboration between policy makers who have led the RM process in Malawi and the implementation team who have developed tools, collected data, and reported results over the period. It draws on our experiences in conducting RM in Malawi to document the RM process and data, key uses of data, implementation challenges, and lessons learned. We conducted a gray literature review to understand rounds of RM in which we did not participate. Finally, we conducted a search of published literature to situate our work in the international health resource-tracking literature. RESULTS: The RM exercise in Malawi is iteratively designed around the needs of the end users and policy priorities of the government, which in turn drives institutionalization of the exercise. We describe 4 ways in which RM data has been used, including national and district planning and budgeting; prioritization and coordination of existing funds by estimating resource availability; mobilization of new resources by conducting financial gap analysis against costed national strategic plans; and generation of evidence to support the national response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. DISCUSSION: To achieve UHC goals in Malawi, RM has equipped the government and development partners with critical data used for resource mobilization and coordination decisions. Lessons learned from RM in Malawi may be applicable to other countries starting or refining their own health resource-tracking exercise.

Palliative care and catastrophic costs in Malawi after a diagnosis of advanced cancer: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inclusive universal health coverage requires access to quality health care without financial barriers. Receipt of palliative care after advanced cancer diagnosis might reduce household poverty, but evidence from low-income and middle-income settings is sparse. METHODS: In this prospective study, the primary objective was to investigate total household costs of cancer-related health care after a diagnosis of advanced cancer, with and without the receipt of palliative care. Households comprising patients and their unpaid family caregiver were recruited into a cohort study at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Malawi, between Jan 16 and July 31, 2019. Costs of cancer-related health-care use (including palliative care) and health-related quality-of-life were recorded over 6 months. Regression analysis explored associations between receipt of palliative care and total household costs on health care as a proportion of household income. Catastrophic costs, defined as 20% or more of total household income, sale of assets and loans taken out (dissaving), and their association with palliative care were computed. FINDINGS: We recruited 150 households. At 6 months, data from 89 (59%) of 150 households were available, comprising 89 patients (median age 50 years, 79% female) and 64 caregivers (median age 40 years, 73% female). Patients in 55 (37%) of the 150 households died and six (4%) were lost to follow-up. 19 (21%) of 89 households received palliative care. Catastrophic costs were experienced by nine (47%) of 19 households who received palliative care versus 48 (69%) of 70 households who did not (relative risk 0·69, 95% CI 0·42 to 1·14, p=0·109). Palliative care was associated with substantially reduced dissaving (median US$11, IQR 0 to 30 vs $34, 14 to 75; p=0·005). The mean difference in total household costs on cancer-related health care with receipt of palliative care was -36% (95% CI -94 to 594; p=0·707). INTERPRETATION: Vulnerable households in low-income countries are subject to catastrophic health-related costs following a diagnosis of advanced cancer. Palliative care might result in reduced dissaving in these households. Further consideration of the economic benefits of palliative care is justified. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust; National Institute for Health Research; and EMMS International.

Simple versus composite indicators of socioeconomic status in resource allocation formulae: the case of the district resource allocation formula in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The district resource allocation formula in Malawi was recently reviewed to include stunting as a proxy measure of socioeconomic status. In many countries where the concept of need has been incorporated in resource allocation, composite indicators of socioeconomic status have been used. In the Malawi case, it is important to ascertain whether there are differences between using single variable or composite indicators of socioeconomic status in allocations made to districts, holding all other factors in the resource allocation formula constant. METHODS: Principal components analysis was used to calculate asset indices for all districts from variables that capture living standards using data from the Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006. These were normalized and used to weight district populations. District proportions of national population weighted by both the simple and composite indicators were then calculated for all districts and compared. District allocations were also calculated using the two approaches and compared. RESULTS: The two types of indicators are highly correlated, with a spearman rank correlation coefficient of 0.97 at the 1% level of significance. For 21 out of the 26 districts included in the study, proportions of national population weighted by the simple indicator are higher by an average of 0.6 percentage points. For the remaining 5 districts, district proportions of national population weighted by the composite indicator are higher by an average of 2 percentage points. Though the average percentage point differences are low and the actual allocations using both approaches highly correlated (rho of 0.96), differences in actual allocations exceed 10% for 8 districts and have an average of 4.2% for the remaining 17. For 21 districts allocations based on the single variable indicator are higher. CONCLUSIONS: Variations in district allocations made using either the simple or composite indicators of socioeconomic status are not statistically different to recommend one over the other. However, the single variable indicator is favourable for its ease of computation.

Squaring the cube: Towards an operational model of optimal universal health coverage.

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has become a key goal of health policy in many developing countries. However, implementing UHC poses tough policy choices about: what treatments to provide (the depth of coverage); to what proportion of the population (the breadth of coverage); at what price to patients (the height of coverage). This paper uses a theoretical mathematical programming model to derive analytically the optimal balance between the range of services provided and the proportion of the population covered under UHC, using the general principles of cost-effectiveness analysis. In contrast to most CEA, the model allows for variations in both the costs of provision and the social benefits of treatments, depending on the deprivation level of the population. We illustrate empirically the optimal trade-off between the size of the benefits package and the proportion of the population securing access to each treatment for a hypothetical East African country, based on WHO data on the costs and benefits of treatments at different coverage levels. We begin with a scenario allowing coverage levels to vary, then apply differential equity weights to the benefits of coverage, and finally illustrate a scenario where interventions are either provided at 95% coverage or not at all (as is usually done in health benefits package design) for comparison. The results present the optimal trade-off between the social benefits of pursuing full population coverage, at the expense of expanding the benefits package for 'easier to reach' populations.