Limited intraspecific variation in drought resistance along a pronounced tropical rainfall gradient.

Assessing within-species variation in response to drought is crucial for predicting species' responses to climate change and informing restoration and conservation efforts, yet experimental data are lacking for the vast majority of tropical tree species. We assessed intraspecific variation in response to water availability across a strong rainfall gradient for 16 tropical tree species using reciprocal transplant and common garden field experiments, along with measurements of gene flow and key functional traits linked to drought resistance. Although drought resistance varies widely among species in these forests, we found little evidence for within-species variation in drought resistance. For the majority of functional traits measured, we detected no significant intraspecific variation. The few traits that did vary significantly between drier and wetter origins of the same species all showed relationships opposite to expectations based on drought stress. Furthermore, seedlings of the same species originating from drier and wetter sites performed equally well under drought conditions in the common garden experiment and at the driest transplant site. However, contrary to expectation, wetter-origin seedlings survived better than drier-origin seedlings under wetter conditions in both the reciprocal transplant and common garden experiment, potentially due to lower insect herbivory. Our study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of intraspecific variation in tropical tree species' responses to water availability. Our findings suggest that while drought plays an important role in shaping species composition across moist tropical forests, its influence on within-species variation is limited.

Increased mortality of tropical tree seedlings during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño.

As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought-sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.

Turgor loss point predicts survival responses to experimental and natural drought in tropical tree seedlings.

Identifying key traits that can serve as proxies for species drought resistance is crucial for predicting and mitigating the effects of climate change in diverse plant communities. Turgor loss point (πtlp ) is a recently emerged trait that has been linked to species distributions across gradients of water availability. However, a direct relationship between πtlp and species ability to survive drought has yet to be established for woody species. Using a manipulative field experiment to quantify species drought resistance (i.e., their survival response to drought), combined with measurements of πtlp for 16 tree species, we show a negative relationship between πtlp and seedling drought resistance. Using long-term forest plot data, we also show that πtlp predicts seedling survival responses to a severe El Niño-related drought, although additional factors are clearly also important. Our study demonstrates that species with lower πtlp exhibit higher survival under both experimental and natural drought. These results provide a missing cornerstone in the assessment of the traits underlying drought resistance in woody species and strengthen πtlp as a proxy for evaluating which species will lose or win under projections of exacerbating drought regimes.

Local adaptation to herbivory within tropical tree species along a rainfall gradient.

In tropical forests, insect herbivores exert significant pressure on plant populations. Adaptation to such pressure is hypothesized to be a driver of high tropical diversity, but direct evidence for local adaptation to herbivory in tropical forests is sparse. At the same time, herbivore pressure has been hypothesized to increase with rainfall in the tropics, which could lead to differences among sites in the degree of local adaptation. To assess the presence of local adaptation and its interaction with rainfall, we compared herbivore damage on seedlings of local vs. nonlocal populations at sites differing in moisture availability in a reciprocal transplant experiment spanning a rainfall gradient in Panama. For 13 native tree species, seeds collected from multiple populations along the rainfall gradient were germinated in a shadehouse and then transplanted to experimental sites within the species range. We tracked the proportion of seedlings attacked over 1.5 yr and quantified the percentage of leaf area damaged at the end of the study. Seedlings originating from local populations were less likely to be attacked and experienced lower amounts of herbivore damage than those from nonlocal populations, but only on the wetter end of the rainfall gradient. However, overall herbivore damage was higher at the drier site compared to wetter sites, contrary to expectation. Taken together, these findings support the idea that herbivory can result in local adaptation within tropical tree species; however, the likelihood of local adaptation varies among sites because of environmentally driven differences in investment in defense or herbivore specialization or both.