Separating the effects of early and later life adiposity on colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants. RESULTS: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer.

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Circulating adipokine concentrations and risk of five obesity-related cancers: A Mendelian randomization study.

Obesity is considered a chronic inflammatory state characterized by continued secretion of adipokines and cytokines. Experimental and epidemiological evidence indicates that circulating adipokines may be associated with the development of obesity-related cancers, but it is unclear if these associations are causal or confounded. We examined potential causal associations of specific adipokines (adiponectin, leptin, soluble leptin receptor [sOB-R] and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 [PAI-1]) with five obesity-related cancers (colorectal, pancreatic, renal cell carcinoma [RCC], ovarian and endometrial) using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. We used summary-level data from large genetic consortia for 114 530 cancer cases and 245 284 controls. We constructed genetic instruments using 18 genetic variants for adiponectin, 2 for leptin and 4 for both sOB-R and PAI-1 (P value for inclusion<5 × 10-8 ). Causal estimates were obtained using two-sample MR methods. In the inverse-variance weighted models, we found an inverse association between adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer (odds ratio per 1 µg/mL increment in adiponectin concentration: 0.90 [95% confidence interval = 0.84-0.97]; P = .01); but, evidence of horizontal pleiotropy was detected and the association was not present when this was taken into consideration. No association was found for adiponectin and risks of pancreatic cancer, RCC, ovarian cancer and endometrial cancer. Leptin, sOB-R and PAI-1 were also similarly unrelated to risk of obesity-related cancers. Despite the large sample size, our MR analyses do not support causal effects of circulating adiponectin, leptin, sOB-R and PAI-1 concentrations on the development of five obesity-related cancers.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and the Risk of Parkinson Disease.

RATIONALE: A complete picture of the associations of the most common lipid fractions, including total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglycerides, and apolipoproteins, with the risk of Parkinson disease (PD), is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of lipids and apolipoproteins with the future risk of PD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk) Study, we enrolled ≈600 000 participants during 1985 to 1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with repeated measurements of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, ApoB (apolipoprotein B), and ApoA-I (apolipoprotein A-I). The cohort was followed until the end of 2011, and incident cases of PD were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. We first used Cox models to estimate the associations of these biomarkers with later risk of PD. We further applied a Mendelian randomization analysis for TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides using the GWAS (Genome-wide association study) summary statistics from the public PD GWAS data and 23andMe PD cohorts with >800 000 individuals. One SD increase of TC was associated with a lower hazard of PD (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). Similar associations were observed for LDL-C (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98), triglycerides (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and ApoB (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.97). A clear dose-response relation was also noted when using these biomarkers as categorical variables. A causal inverse association of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides with PD risk was further suggested by the Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce that higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides are associated with a lower future risk of PD and further suggest that these associations may be causal. The findings for ApoB in relation to PD risk are novel, and whether such association is causal needs to be examined.

Peripheral immune biomarkers and neurodegenerative diseases: A prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of several blood immune biomarkers with the future risks of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in a prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: The Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk study is a longitudinal cohort study including 812,073 participants with repeated blood biomarker measurements between 1985 and 1996 and a follow-up until 2011. Using a Cox model, we first estimated hazard ratios of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in relation to leukocytes, immunoglobulin G, haptoglobin, and uric acid. We further described the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years prior to the diagnosis of these diseases. RESULTS: A total of 585 incident cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 3,769 incident cases of Parkinson disease were identified during the follow-up. Increasing concentrations of leukocytes, haptoglobin, and uric acid were associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. No statistically significant association was, however, noted between the studied biomarkers and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson disease patients appeared to have lower levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin between 20 and 10 years before diagnosis and lower levels of uric acid during the 20 years before diagnosis, compared to controls, although statistically significant differences were only noted during parts of the respective time intervals after multivariable adjustment. No clear differences were noted between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and controls. INTERPRETATION: If verified in studies of independent populations, our findings may suggest a different role of systemic inflammation on the risk of Parkinson disease compared to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:913-926.

The influence of obesity-related factors in the etiology of renal cell carcinoma-A mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Several obesity-related factors have been associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but it is unclear which individual factors directly influence risk. We addressed this question using genetic markers as proxies for putative risk factors and evaluated their relation to RCC risk in a mendelian randomization (MR) framework. This methodology limits bias due to confounding and is not affected by reverse causation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Genetic markers associated with obesity measures, blood pressure, lipids, type 2 diabetes, insulin, and glucose were initially identified as instrumental variables, and their association with RCC risk was subsequently evaluated in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 10,784 RCC patients and 20,406 control participants in a 2-sample MR framework. The effect on RCC risk was estimated by calculating odds ratios (ORSD) for a standard deviation (SD) increment in each risk factor. The MR analysis indicated that higher body mass index increases the risk of RCC (ORSD: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-1.70), with comparable results for waist-to-hip ratio (ORSD: 1.63, 95% CI 1.40-1.90) and body fat percentage (ORSD: 1.66, 95% CI 1.44-1.90). This analysis further indicated that higher fasting insulin (ORSD: 1.82, 95% CI 1.30-2.55) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; ORSD: 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.47), but not systolic blood pressure (ORSD: 0.98, 95% CI 0.84-1.14), increase the risk for RCC. No association with RCC risk was seen for lipids, overall type 2 diabetes, or fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel evidence for an etiological role of insulin in RCC, as well as confirmatory evidence that obesity and DBP influence RCC risk.

Blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A more than 20-year follow-up of the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms with the future risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). METHODS: In the Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk study, we enrolled 636,132 men and women during 1985-1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with measurements of serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (apoB), and apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I). Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were either directly measured or calculated from total cholesterol, triglycerides, and apoA-I. The cohort was followed until the end of 2011. We used Cox models and mixed-effects models to, first, estimate the associations between these biomarkers and ALS incidence and, second, to assess the changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years before ALS diagnosis. RESULTS: One-unit increase of LDL-C (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.27), apoB (HR = 1.68; 95% CI = 1.17-2.42), and apoB/apoA-I ratio (HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.29-2.78) was associated with a higher incidence of ALS. High glucose level (≥6.11mmol/L) was associated with a lower incidence (HR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.42-0.93), whereas high LDL-C/HDL-C (≥3.50; HR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.15-1.96) and high apoB/apoA-I (≥0.90 for men, ≥0.8 for women; HR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.04-1.90) ratios were associated with a higher incidence. During the 10 years before diagnosis, ALS patients had increasing levels of LDL-C, HDL-C, apoB, and apoA-I, whereas gradually decreasing levels of LDL-C/HDL-C and apoB/apoA-I ratios. INTERPRETATION: Alterations in the carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms are associated with ALS risk and may serve as prodromal symptoms decades before ALS diagnosis. The imbalance between apoB and apoA-I as well as between LDL-C and HDL-C may be an etiological mechanism for ALS and needs to be further studied. Ann Neurol 2017;81:718-728.

Blood Lead, Bone Turnover, and Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

Blood lead and bone turnover may be associated with the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We aimed to assess whether these factors were also associated with time from ALS diagnosis to death through a survival analysis of 145 ALS patients enrolled during 2007 in the National Registry of Veterans with ALS. Associations of survival time with blood lead and plasma biomarkers of bone resorption (C-terminal telopeptides of type I collagen (CTX)) and bone formation (procollagen type I amino-terminal peptide (PINP)) were estimated using Cox models adjusted for age at diagnosis, diagnostic certainty, diagnostic delay, site of onset, and score on the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale. Hazard ratios were calculated for each doubling of biomarker concentration. Blood lead, plasma CTX, and plasma PINP were mutually adjusted for one another. Increased lead (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.84) and CTX (HR = 2.03; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.89) were both associated with shorter survival, whereas higher PINP was associated with longer survival (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.83), after ALS diagnosis. No interactions were observed between lead or bone turnover and other prognostic indicators. Lead toxicity and bone metabolism may be involved in ALS pathophysiology.

Body Mass Index and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Study of US Military Veterans.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) may be associated with low body mass index (BMI) at the time of diagnosis. However, the role of premorbid BMI in the development of ALS and survival after diagnosis remains unclear. In 2005-2010, we interviewed 467 patients with ALS from the US National Registry of Veterans with ALS and 975 frequency-matched veteran controls. In this sample, we evaluated the association of BMI and BMI change at different ages with ALS risk using unconditional logistic models and with survival after ALS diagnosis using Cox proportional hazards models. After adjustment for confounders, compared with a moderate increase in BMI between ages 25 and 40 years, stable or decreasing BMI was positively associated with ALS risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20, 2.16). A 1-unit increase in BMI at age 40 years (OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98) but not at age 25 years (OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.03) was inversely associated with ALS. These associations were similar for bulbar and spinal ALS but stronger for those with a delay of less than 1 year between symptom onset and diagnosis. We found no association between prediagnosis BMI and survival. A decreasing BMI from early to middle age and a low BMI in middle age may be positively associated with ALS risk.

A prospective cohort study of the combined effects of physical activity and anthropometric measures on the risk of post-menopausal breast cancer.

Although keeping a healthy weight and being physically active are among the few modifiable risk factors for post-menopausal breast cancer, the possible interaction between these two risk factors remains to be established. We analyzed prospectively a cohort of 19,196 women who provided detailed self-report on anthropometric measures, physical activity and possible confounders at enrollment in 1997. We achieved complete follow-up through 2010 and ascertained 609 incident cases of post-menopausal invasive breast cancer. We calculated metabolic energy turnover (MET h/day) per day and fitted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). The incidence of post-menopausal breast cancer among obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) was 58 % higher (HR 1.58, CI 1.16-2.16) than in women of normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25). Women in the lowest tertile of total physical activity (< 31.2 MET h/day) had 40 % higher incidence of post-menopausal breast cancer (HR 1.40, CI 1.11-1.75) than those in the highest tertile (≥ 38.2 MET h/day). The excess incidence linked to these two factors seemed to combine in an approximately additive manner; the incidence among the most obese and sedentary women was doubled (HR 2.07, CI 1.31-3.25) compared with the most physically active women with normal weight. No heterogeneity of the physical activity-linked risk ratios across strata of BMI was detected (p value for interaction = 0.98). This prospective study revealed dose-dependent, homogenous inverse associations between post-menopausal breast cancer incidence and physical activity across all strata of BMI, and between post-menopausal breast cancer incidence and BMI across all strata of physical activity, with no evidence of additive or multiplicative interaction between the two, suggesting independent effects.

A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing partial stomach partitioning gastrojejunostomy versus conventional gastrojejunostomy for malignant gastroduodenal obstruction.

PURPOSE: Partial stomach partitioning gastrojejunostomy (PSPGJ) was introduced as a palliative treatment for malignant gastric outlet obstruction (MGO) caused by unresectable gastric or periampullary cancers and suggested to offer advantages over conventional gastrojejunostomy (CGJ) in reducing the risk for delayed gastric emptying (DGE). However, insufficient evidence is available to allow a comprehensive view of the true value of PSPGJ. The present study aimed to show the advantages of PSPGJ in terms of alleviating DGE and improving postoperative recovery compared to CGJ. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed, and studies comparing DGE and other perioperative and postoperative data including operation time, blood loss, total postoperative complications, anastomotic leak, postoperative period before oral intake, and/or hospital stay between PSPGJ and CGJ for MGO were incorporated. Risk ratio (RR) for binary variables and weighted mean difference (WMD) for continuous variables were calculated, and meta-analyses were performed. RESULTS: Seven studies containing 207 patients were included. The risk for DGE was significantly lower after PSPGJ (RR 0.32; 95%CI 0.17 to 0.60; P < 0.001). PSPGJ significantly reduced the postoperative hospital stay (WMD -6.1 days; 95%CI -8.9 to -3.3 days; P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed in the other variables between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: PSPGJ for MGO seems to offer significant advantages in terms of alleviating DGE and improving postoperative recovery compared to CGJ.

Physical activity and body mass index as predictors of prostate cancer risk.

PURPOSE: Physical activity and body mass index (BMI) are involved in prostate cancer etiology; possible biologic mechanisms include their effects on hormonal levels. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between physical activity, obesity, and prostate cancer. METHODS: We followed a cohort of 13,109 Swedish men for 13 years and investigated the association of self-reported physical activity and BMI at baseline with prostate cancer incidence. We further analyzed whether BMI could modulate effects of physical activity. Occupational, recreational, and total physical activity were analyzed in relation to overall, localized, and advanced prostate cancer. RESULTS: During the study follow-up, we observed a total of 904 cases of prostate cancer (429 localized, 407 advanced, and 68 unclassified). High levels of occupational physical activity were associated with a nonsignificantly decreased risk of overall (HR 0.81, 95 % CI 0.61-1.07), localized (HR 0.75, 95 % CI 0.51-1.12), and advanced (HR 0.85, 95 % CI 0.55-1.31) prostate cancer. We found no association between high BMI and risk of prostate cancer incidence: We observed, however, a significant interaction between BMI and leisure physical activity. CONCLUSION: No association was confirmed between total physical activity and localized or advanced prostate cancer. The highest, relative to the lowest, level of occupational physical activity tended to be linked to a lower risk of prostate cancer, with a suggested dose-response relationship. We found no association between high BMI and risk of prostate cancer incidence; however, our analyses suggested an interaction between BMI and physical activity during recreational time that merits further investigation in future studies.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk of subsequent cancer is also increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer. METHODS: We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate causal associations between genetic liability to VTE and risk of 18 different cancers. RESULTS: We found no conclusive evidence that genetic liability to VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice versa. We observed an association between liability to VTE and pancreatic cancer risk [odds ratio for pancreatic cancer: 1.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.40) per log-odds increase in VTE risk, P = 0.002]. However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence to suggest a causal relationship. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetic liability to VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesize evidence for these mechanisms.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Genetically proxied impaired GIPR signaling and risk of 6 cancers.

Preclinical and genetic studies suggest that impaired glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor (GIPR) signaling worsens glycemic control. The relationship between GIPR signaling and the risk of cancers influenced by impaired glucose homeostasis is unclear. We examined the association of a variant in GIPR, rs1800437 (E354Q), shown to impair long-term GIPR signaling and lower circulating glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide concentrations, with risk of 6 cancers influenced by impaired glucose homeostasis (breast, colorectal, endometrial, lung, pancreatic, and renal) in up to 235,698 cases and 333,932 controls. Each copy of E354Q was associated with a higher risk of overall and luminal A-like breast cancer and this association was consistent in replication and colocalization analyses. E354Q was also associated with higher postprandial glucose concentrations but diminished insulin secretion and lower testosterone concentrations. Our human genetics analysis suggests an adverse effect of the GIPR E354Q variant on breast cancer risk, supporting further evaluation of GIPR signaling in breast cancer prevention.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis.

Background: People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Additionally, risk of subsequent cancer is increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer. Methods: We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bi-directional Mendelian randomisation analyses to estimate causal associations between genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE and risk of 18 different cancers. Results: We found no conclusive evidence that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice-versa. We observed an association between VTE and pancreatic cancer risk (odds ratio for pancreatic cancer 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.08 - 1.40) per log-odds increase in risk of VTE, P = 0.002). However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence from Mendelian randomisation to suggest a causal relationship. Conclusions: These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesise evidence for these mechanisms.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,162 cancer cases and up to 824,556 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 x 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e. in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") < 0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) > 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Results: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, q-value=0.033, PPH4=84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.69, q-value=0.055, PPH4=73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, q-value=0.067, PPH4=81.8%), macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23, q-value=0.072, PPH4=76.1%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, q-value=0.15), PPH4=85.6%). For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥ 0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. Conclusion: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 5 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 5 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. METHODS: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07-1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06-1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03-1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02-1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99-1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99-1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95-1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98-1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. INTERPRETATION: The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Cancer Resesrch UK (C52724/A20138, C18281/A19169). UK Medical Research Council (MR/P014054/1). National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411). UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4). National Cancer Institute (R00 CA215360). National Institutes of Health (U01 CA164973, R01 CA60987, R01 CA72520, U01 CA74806, R01 CA55874, U01 CA164973 and U01 CA164973).

Design and quality control of large-scale two-sample Mendelian randomization studies.

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to metadata errors (e.g. incorrect specification of the effect allele column) and other analytical issues that can introduce substantial bias into analyses. We developed a quality control (QC) pipeline for the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration (FAMRC) that can be used to identify and correct for such errors. Methods: We collated summary association statistics from fatty acid and cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and subjected the collated data to a comprehensive QC pipeline. We identified metadata errors through comparison of study-specific statistics to external reference data sets (the National Human Genome Research Institute-European Bioinformatics Institute GWAS catalogue and 1000 genome super populations) and other analytical issues through comparison of reported to expected genetic effect sizes. Comparisons were based on three sets of genetic variants: (i) GWAS hits for fatty acids, (ii) GWAS hits for cancer and (iii) a 1000 genomes reference set. Results: We collated summary data from 6 fatty acid and 54 cancer GWAS. Metadata errors and analytical issues with the potential to introduce substantial bias were identified in seven studies (11.6%). After resolving metadata errors and analytical issues, we created a data set of 219 842 genetic associations with 90 cancer types, generated in analyses of 566 665 cancer cases and 1 622 374 controls. Conclusions: In this large MR collaboration, 11.6% of included studies were affected by a substantial metadata error or analytical issue. By increasing the integrity of collated summary data prior to their analysis, our protocol can be used to increase the reliability of downstream MR analyses. Our pipeline is available to other researchers via the CheckSumStats package (https://github.com/MRCIEU/CheckSumStats).