Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration.

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.

Economic Valuation of Bee Pollination Services for Passion Fruit (Malpighiales: Passifloraceae) Cultivation on Smallholding Farms in São Paulo, Brazil, Using the Avoided Cost Method.

This paper estimates the economic value of ecosystem services provided by Brazilian native bee, Xylocopa spp. Latreille (Hymenoptera: Apidae), pollination on a scale relevant to individual smallholder farmers that produce yellow passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims). The study areas are located in the vicinity of Pedro de Toledo and Itariri (Sao Paulo State-Brazil), in the Atlantic Forest region. The local economy is based on family farms, small stores, and ecotourism. The value was obtained using the ecological economics Avoided Cost Method, also known as replacement cost. Farms from this region informally hire temporary day laborers to supplement natural pollination with manual pollination of passion fruit flowers, so the cost of contracting temporary laborers was used to estimate the economic value of bee pollination. The value of pollination services was estimated at US$ 2,583.00 per hectare over 2 yr of P. edulis farming. Our estimates based on passion fruit farmer surveys and ecological valuation over 2 yr suggest that manual pollination accounts for 44-48% of production costs and results in a loss of ~58% of profits when wild bee pollination services are not available and manual pollination is required. We suggest that smallholder farmers follow the suggestions of previous studies and conserve adequate forest habitat for bee nesting and foraging, plan pesticide use around flowering and pollination, and supplement bee populations to maximize the benefit of the pollination ecosystem service and profits.

Multiscale analysis of Hymenocallis coronaria (Amaryllidaceae) genetic diversity, genetic structure, and gene movement under the influence of unidirectional stream flow.

Understanding gene movement patterns in unidirectional flow environments and their effect on patterns of genetic diversity and genetic structure is necessary to manage these systems. Hypotheses and models to explain genetic patterns in streams are rare, and the results of macrophyte studies are inconsistent. This study addresses Ritland's (Canadian Journal of Botany 67: 2017-2024) unidirectional diversity hypothesis, the one-dimensional stepping stone model, and the metapopulation model within and among populations. Hymenocallis coronaria, an aquatic macrophyte of rocky river shoals of the SE USA, was sampled in four river basins. Within populations and among populations <16.2 km apart had significant isolation by distance. However, the rate of gene flow decay was not consistent with a one-dimensional stepping stone model, nor was evidence strong or consistent for Ritland's hypothesis. Some evidence indicates that localized metapopulation processes may be affecting genetic diversity and structure; however, gene flow patterns inconsistent with the assumptions of the linear and unidirectional models are also a possible influence. We discuss three variants on the one-dimensional stepping stone model. Future research in linear environments should examine the expectations of these models. This study is also one of the first efforts to calculate population genetic parameters using a new program, TETRASAT.