The Solling roof revisited--slow recovery from acidification observed and modeled despite a decade of "clean-rain" treatment.

Soil chemistry under the Solling clean-rain roof was simulated using the dynamic multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE, including sulfate adsorption. Soil was sampled in order to parameterize the pH and sulfate concentration dependent sulfate adsorption isotherm used in SAFE. Modeled soil solution chemistry was compared to the 14 year long time-series of monthly measurements of soil solution data at 10 and 100cm depth. The deposition of N and S under the roof has been reduced by 68% and 53%, respectively, compared to the surrounding area. Despite this the soil solution concentrations of sulfate are still high (a median of 420mumol(c)/L at 100cm depth between 2000 and 2002) and the soil base saturation low (approximately 3% in the whole profile in 1998). Sulfate adsorption is an important process in Solling. The soil capacity to adsorb sulfate is large, the modeled adsorbed pool in 2003 down to 100cm was 1030kg S/ha, and the measured sulfate concentration is high, due to release of adsorbed sulfate. The addition of sulfate adsorption improved the modeled sulfate dynamics although the model still slightly underestimated the sulfate concentration at 100cm. Model predictions show no recovery, based on the criteria of Bc/Al ratio above 1 in the rooting zone, before the year 2050, independent of future deposition cuts.

Modelling future soil chemistry at a highly polluted forest site at Istebna in Southern Poland using the "SAFE" model.

The multi-layer dynamic model SAFE was applied to the forested catchment Istebna (Southern Poland), to study recovery from acidification. Environmental pollution in the area has been historically high. The model uses data from an intensive monitoring plot established in 1999 in a spruce stand, which was planted in 1880. Observations showed that the soil was depleted of base cations. The measured base saturation in 1999 was between 5 and 8% in the different soil layers. Model predictions assuming full implementation of the UNECE 1999 Gothenburg Protocol and present day base cation deposition show that the base saturation will slowly increase to 20% by 2100. Despite large emission reductions, Istebna still suffers from the very high loads of acidifying input during the past decades. Soil recovery depends on future emissions especially on base cation deposition. The recovery will be even slower if the base cation deposition decreases further.

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification.

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.

Parameterization and evaluation of sulfate adsorption in a dynamic soil chemistry model.

Sulfate adsorption was implemented in the dynamic, multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE. The process is modeled by an isotherm in which sulfate adsorption is considered to be fully reversible and dependent on sulfate concentration as well as pH in soil solution. The isotherm was parameterized by a site-specific series of simple batch experiments at different pH (3.8-5.0) and sulfate concentration (10-260 micromol 1(-1)) levels. Application of the model to the Lake Gardsj6n roof covered site shows that including sulfate adsorption improves the dynamic behavior of the model and sulfate adsorption and desorption delay acidification and recovery of the soil. The modeled adsorbed pool of sulfate at the site reached a maximum level of 700 mmol/m(2) in the late 1980s, well in line with experimental data.