Estimating the future global dose demand for measles-rubella microarray patches.

Background: Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs. Methods: Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty. Results: For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR. Conclusions: Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.

Immunisation program reviews in East and Southern Africa (2012-2018): key lessons.

INTRODUCTION: the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends that countries conduct comprehensive national immunisation program reviews regularly to help them identify systems wide-barriers or gaps and monitor performance against the set targets. METHODS: we reviewed reports from the latest national immunisation program reviews conducted in the 20 countries in the sub-region in the course of 2012-2018. We generated descriptive analysis of the findings across the sub-region. RESULTS: the 20 program reviews included field observations to the subnational levels as well as interviews with program staff and stakeholders. At the time of the reviews, only 11 countries had functional National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups. Operational funding was inadequate in half of the countries. The reviews documented the cancellation of outreach services, supportive supervision visits and maintenance of cold chain equipment due to the lack of fuel or operational funding. Immunisation programs in 10 countries had major human resource gaps. Vaccine stock management tools were not effectively used in 10 countries, and stock out of vaccines and supplies was documented in 9 countries during the review. The full components of the RED strategy were implemented in only 3 of the 20 countries. Twelve countries reported challenges with the availability and accuracy of target populations. Four countries had documented the presence of vaccine hesitant groups at the time of the reviews. CONCLUSION: the reviews demonstrated challenges in various aspects of the programs in different countries. The implementation of the review recommendations should be built into the annual program plans, as well as into coasted multi-year plans, in order to address the gaps and helps the program to attain the set targets. With the rapid evolution of the scope and complexity of the immunisation programs in recent years, countries should invest their efforts in building the capacity of their human resources as well as updating their logistics and data systems.

Immunisation program training needs in 9 countries in the African Region.

INTRODUCTION: regular in-service training of healthcare workers within the immunization program is critical to address the program needs created by the introduction of new vaccines and technologies, as well as the expanding scope of immunisation programmes beyond infant immunization and towards a life-course approach. National immunization programs conduct in-service training of health workers depending on program needs and particularly when new program elements are introduced. METHODS: we conducted a survey of national and provincial level immunization program staff in 9 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region to determine the perceived needs and preferred training methods for capacity building in immunisation. RESULTS: nearly all of the respondents (98.3%) stated that there are skill gaps at their respective levels in the immunization program which require training, with 88% indicating that mid-level program management (MLM) training was needed to train new program staff, while 78% indicated program performance gaps and 60% of the respondents stated that refresher training is needed. Program areas identified as top priorities for training included immunisation monitoring and data quality, sustainable immunization financing, adverse events monitoring and community mobilization. More than three quarters of the respondents (78%) think that online MLM training is adequate to address program gaps. Only four of the 9 immunization program managers indicated that they regularly monitor the number of MLM trained staff within their national program. CONCLUSION: there is a strong need for in-service training of immunization program officers in the countries surveyed, especially at the subnational levels. Program managers should conduct regular monitoring of the training status of staff, as well as conduct detailed training needs assessments in order to tailor the training approaches and topics. Online training provides an acceptable approach for capacity building of immunization program staff.

Implementation of integrated supportive supervision in the context of coronavirus 19 pandemic: its effects on routine immunization and vaccine preventable surveillance diseases indicators in the East and Southern African countries.

INTRODUCTION: the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) global pandemic has caused serious disruption to almost all aspect of human endeavor forcing countries to implement unprecedented public health measures aimed at mitigating its effects, such as total lockdown (inter and intra), travel bans, quarantine, social distancing in an effort to contain the spread of the virus. Supportive supervision is a functional component of the immunization systems that allows identification of existing gaps, provides an opportunity for onsite training, and document real-time findings for improvement of the program. The control measures of COVID-19 pandemic have also resulted in limitation of operations of the immunization system including supportive supervision. This has limited many aspects of supportive supervision for surveillance and routine immunization monitoring system in the East and Southern African countries. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of COVID-19 on Integrated Supportive Supervision visits for expanded programme on immunization (EPI) and how it influences the immunization and vaccine preventable disease (VPD) surveillance indicators, and its short-term effect towards notification of increase or decrease morbidity and mortality. METHODS: we reviewed the integrated supportive supervision (ISS) data and the routine administrative coverage from 19 countries in the East and Southern Africa (ESA) for the period January to August 2019 to analyze the trends in the number of visits, vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD), and routine immunization (RI) indicators using t-test, and compare with the period January to August 2020 during the months of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: thirteen countries out of the 19 considered, had shown a decline in the number of integrated supportive supervision (ISS) visits, with 10 (77%) having more than 59% decrease during the January-August 2020 as compared to the same period 2019. Eleven (57%) of the countries have shown a decrease (p-value < 0.05). Ethiopia and Kenya had the highest drop (p-value < 0.000). Six (32%) had an increase in the number of visits, with Madagascar, Zambia, and Zimbabwe having >100% increase in the number of visits. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of the countries that have decreased in the number of ISS visits have equally witnessed a drop in DPT3 administrative coverage. Countries with a low proportion of outreach sessions conducted in the period of January - August 2020, have all had sessions interruption, with more than 40% of the reasons associated with the lockdown. CONCLUSION: countries have experienced a decrease in the number of supportive supervision visits conducted, during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and, this has influenced the routine immunization and vaccine-preventable diseases surveillance (VPD) process indicators monitored through the conduct of the visits. Continuous decrease in these performance indicators pose a great threat to the performance sustained and the functionality of the surveillance and immunization system, and consequently on increased surveillance sensitivity to promptly detect outbreaks and aiming to reducing morbidity and mortality in the sub-region.

Immunisation program reviews in East and Southern Africa: 2012-2018; key lessons.

INTRODUCTION: World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends that countries conduct comprehensive national immunisation programme reviews regularly to help them identify systems wide-barriers or gaps and monitor performance against the set targets. METHODS: we reviewed reports from the latest national immunisation program reviews conducted in the 20 countries in the subregion in the course of 2012-2018. We generated descriptive analysis of the findings across the subregion. RESULTS: the 20 program reviews included field observations to the subnational levels as well as interviews with program staff and stakeholders. At the time of the reviews, only 11 countries had functional National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups. Operational funding was inadequate in half of the countries. The reviews documented the cancellation of outreach services, supportive supervision visits and maintenance of cold chain equipment due to the lack of fuel or operational funding. Immunisation programs in 10 countries had major human resource gaps. Vaccine stock management tools were not effectively used in 10 countries, and stockout of vaccines and supplies was documented in 9 countries during the review. The full components of the Reaching Every District (RED) Strategy were implemented in only 3 of the 20 countries. Twelve countries reported challenges with the availability and accuracy of target populations. Four countries had documented the presence of vaccine hesitant groups at the time of the reviews. CONCLUSION: the reviews demonstrated challenges in various aspects of the programs in different countries. The implementation of the review recommendations should be built into the annual program plans, as well as into costed multi-year plans, in order to address the gaps and helps the program to attain the set targets. With the rapid evolution of the scope and complexity of the immunisation programs in recent years, countries should invest their efforts in building the capacity of their human resources as well as updating their logistics and data systems.

The distribution and use of feedback bulletins among national immunization program management teams in East and Southern Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Immunization program monitoring includes numerous activities, some of which include monitoring of vaccination coverage, surveillance performance and epidemiological patterns. The provision of timely, high quality and actionable feedback is an essential component of strengthening health systems. Within the African region of the WHO, various bulletins are produced and disseminated regularly to provide feedback on the performance of immunization programs and vaccine preventable disease control initiatives. METHODS: The 2019 annual national immunization program managers' meeting for countries in the eastern and southern African subregion was held in Asmara from 18 - 20 March 2019. A survey questionnaire was administered to the participants representing the national programs and in-country partners across the 20 countries. RESULTS: On average, the 75 respondents receive 1.8 e-mailed feedback bulletins monthly. Twenty-three (31%) respondents receive 3 or more written feedback bulletins per month, and 72% receive the bulletins regularly. On a scale of 1 - 5 (from lowest to highest), 87% participants rated the relevance of the bulletins they receive at 4 - 5. Only 19% of the respondents responded that the results are discussed within the national immunization program, and 14% stated that action points are generated based on the feedback received. Fifty-nine (79%) respondents want to receive more frequent feedback on routine immunization performance. Among the EPI program managers and the EPI program data managers, the access to these feedback bulletins was quite limited. Even though the primary objective of the bulletins is to initiate discussions and action based on the provided feedback, such discussions do not happen regularly at country level. The programmatic use and advocacy value of the bulletins is not optimal. CONCLUSION: We recommend integrating program feedback, regularly updating the distribution lists, the additional use of instant messaging platforms for distribution, as well as online posting of the bulletins for wider availability.

The impact of a prolonged ebola outbreak on measles elimination activities in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia have attained significant reduction in measles incidence between 2004 and 2013. The Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015 in West Africa caused significant disruption of the health service delivery in the three worst affected countries. The magnitude of the impact on the immunization program has not been well documented. METHODS: We reviewed national routine immunization administrative coverage data as well as measles surveillance performance and measles epidemiology in the years before, during and after the EVD outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone. RESULTS: Both Liberia and Guinea experienced a sharp decline of more than 25% in the monthly number of children vaccinated against measles in 2014 and 2015 as compared to the previous years, while there was no reported decline in Sierra Leone. Guinea and Liberia experienced a decline in measles surveillance activity and performance indicators in 2014 and 2015. During this period, there was an increase in measles incidence and a decline in the mean age of measles cases reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Guinea started reporting high measles incidence in 2016. All three countries organized measles supplemental immunization activities by June 2015. Liberia achieved 99% administrative coverage, while Guinea and Sierra Leone attained 90.6% and 97.2% coverage respectively. There were no severe adverse events reported during these mass vaccination activities. The disruptive effect of the Ebola outbreak on immunization services was especially evident in Guinea and Liberia. Our review of the reported administrative vaccination coverage at national level does not show significant decline in measles first dose vaccination coverage in Sierra Leone as compared to other reports. This may be due to inaccuracies in coverage monitoring and data quality problems. The increases in measles transmission and incidence in these three countries can be explained by the rapid accumulation of susceptible children. Despite the organization of mass vaccination activities, measles incidence through 2017 has remained higher than the pre-Ebola period in all three countries. CONCLUSION: The Ebola outbreak in West Africa significantly affected measles vaccination coverage rates in two of the three worst affected countries, and led to persistent gaps in coverage, along with high measles incidence that was documented until two years after the end of the Ebola outbreak. Liberia and Sierra Leone have demonstrated coverage improvements after the end of the Ebola outbreak.

The performance of routine immunization in selected African countries during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: following the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic on 11 March 2020, countries started implementing strict control measures, health workers were re-deployed and health facilities re-purposed to assist COVID-19 control efforts. These measures, along with the public concerns of getting COVID-19, led to a decline in the utilization of regular health services including immunization. METHODS: we reviewed the administrative routine immunization data from 15 African countries for the period from January 2018 to June 2020 to analyze the trends in the monthly number of children vaccinated with specific antigens, and compare the changes in the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: thirteen of the 15 countries showed a decline in the monthly average number of vaccine doses provided, with 6 countries having more than 10% decline. Nine countries had a lower monthly mean of recipients of first dose measles vaccination in the second quarter of 2020 as compared to the first quarter. Guinea, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Gabon, and South Sudan experienced a drop in the monthly number of children vaccinated for DPT3 and/or MCV1 of greater than 2 standard deviations at some point in the second quarter of 2020 as compared to the mean for the months January-June of 2018 and 2019. CONCLUSION: countries with lower immunization coverage in the pre-COVID period experienced larger declines in the number of children vaccinated immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic was declared. Prolonged and significant reduction in the number of children vaccinated poses a serious risk for outbreaks such as measles. Countries should monitor coverage trends at national and subnational levels, and undertake catch-up vaccination activities to ensure that children who have missed scheduled vaccines receive them at the earliest possible time.