A systematic review and network meta-analysis of topical pharmacological, oral pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for acne vulgaris.

BACKGROUND: Various treatments for acne vulgaris exist, but little is known about their comparative effectiveness in relation to acne severity. OBJECTIVES: To identify best treatments for mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe acne, as determined by clinician-assessed morphological features. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing topical pharmacological, oral pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe acne, published up to May 2020. Outcomes included percentage change in total lesion count from baseline, treatment discontinuation for any reason, and discontinuation owing to side-effects. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool and bias adjustment models. Effects for treatments with ≥ 50 observations each compared with placebo are reported below. RESULTS: We included 179 RCTs with approximately 35 000 observations across 49 treatment classes. For mild-to-moderate acne, the most effective options for each treatment type were as follows: topical pharmacological - combined retinoid with benzoyl peroxide (BPO) [mean difference 26·16%, 95% credible interval (CrI) 16·75-35·36%]; physical - chemical peels, e.g. salicylic or mandelic acid (39·70%, 95% CrI 12·54-66·78%) and photochemical therapy (combined blue/red light) (35·36%, 95% CrI 17·75-53·08%). Oral pharmacological treatments (e.g. antibiotics, hormonal contraceptives) did not appear to be effective after bias adjustment. BPO and topical retinoids were less well tolerated than placebo. For moderate-to-severe acne, the most effective options for each treatment type were as follows: topical pharmacological - combined retinoid with lincosamide (clindamycin) (44·43%, 95% CrI 29·20-60·02%); oral pharmacological - isotretinoin of total cumulative dose ≥ 120 mg kg-1 per single course (58·09%, 95% CrI 36·99-79·29%); physical - photodynamic therapy (light therapy enhanced by a photosensitizing chemical) (40·45%, 95% CrI 26·17-54·11%); combined - BPO with topical retinoid and oral tetracycline (43·53%, 95% CrI 29·49-57·70%). Topical retinoids and oral tetracyclines were less well tolerated than placebo. The quality of included RCTs was moderate to very low, with evidence of inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence. Uncertainty in findings was high, in particular for chemical peels, photochemical therapy and photodynamic therapy. However, conclusions were robust to potential bias in the evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Topical pharmacological treatment combinations, chemical peels and photochemical therapy were most effective for mild-to-moderate acne. Topical pharmacological treatment combinations, oral antibiotics combined with topical pharmacological treatments, oral isotretinoin and photodynamic therapy were most effective for moderate-to-severe acne. Further research is warranted for chemical peels, photochemical therapy and photodynamic therapy for which evidence was more limited. What is already known about this topic? Acne vulgaris is the eighth most common disease globally. Several topical, oral, physical and combined treatments for acne vulgaris exist. Network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesizes direct and indirect evidence and allows simultaneous inference for all treatments forming an evidence network. Previous NMAs have assessed a limited range of treatments for acne vulgaris and have not evaluated effectiveness of treatments for moderate-to-severe acne. What does this study add? For mild-to-moderate acne, topical treatment combinations, chemical peels, and photochemical therapy (combined blue/red light; blue light) are most effective. For moderate-to-severe acne, topical treatment combinations, oral antibiotics combined with topical treatments, oral isotretinoin and photodynamic therapy (light therapy enhanced by a photosensitizing chemical) are most effective. Based on these findings, along with further clinical and cost-effectiveness considerations, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance recommends, as first-line treatments, fixed topical treatment combinations for mild-to-moderate acne and fixed topical treatment combinations, or oral tetracyclines combined with topical treatments, for moderate-to-severe acne.

Cost-effectiveness of topical pharmacological, oral pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for acne vulgaris.

BACKGROUND: Acne vulgaris is a common skin condition that may cause psychosocial distress. There is evidence that topical treatment combinations, chemical peels and photochemical therapy (combined blue/red light) are effective for mild-to-moderate acne, while topical treatment combinations, oral antibiotics combined with topical treatments, oral isotretinoin and photodynamic therapy are most effective for moderate-to-severe acne. Effective treatments have varying costs. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England considers cost-effectiveness when producing national clinical, public health and social care guidance. AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of treatments for mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe acne to inform relevant NICE guidance. METHODS: A decision-analytical model compared costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of effective topical pharmacological, oral pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe acne, from the perspective of the National Health Service in England. Effectiveness data were derived from a network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published sources, supplemented by expert opinion. RESULTS: All of the assessed treatments were more cost-effective than treatment with placebo (general practitioner visits without active treatment). For mild-to-moderate acne, topical treatment combinations and photochemical therapy (combined blue/red light) were most cost-effective. For moderate-to-severe acne, topical treatment combinations, oral antibiotics combined with topical treatments, and oral isotretinoin were the most cost-effective. Results showed uncertainty, as reflected in the wide confidence intervals around mean treatment rankings. CONCLUSION: A range of treatments are cost-effective for the management of acne. Well-conducted studies are needed to examine the long-term clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the full range of acne treatments.

The cost-effectiveness of antenatal and postnatal education and support interventions for women aimed at promoting breastfeeding in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding is associated with health benefits to mothers and babies and cost-savings to the health service. Breastfeeding rates in the UK are low for various reasons including cultural barriers, inadequate support to initiate and sustain breastfeeding, lack of information, or choice not to breastfeed. Education and support interventions have been developed aiming at promoting breastfeeding rates. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions for women, initiated antenatally or in the first 8 weeks postnatally, aiming at improving breastfeeding rates, in the UK. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of a breastfeeding intervention from the perspective of health and personal social services in England. Data on intervention effectiveness and the benefits of breastfeeding were derived from systematic reviews. Other model input parameters were obtained from published sources, supplemented by expert opinion. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the modelled intervention added on standard care versus standard care was £51,946/QALY, suggesting that the intervention is not cost-effective under National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria in England. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the cost-effectiveness of the intervention improved as its effectiveness increased and intervention cost decreased. At the base-case effect (increase in breastfeeding rates 16-26 weeks after birth by 19%), the intervention was cost-effective (<£20,000/QALY) if its cost per woman receiving the intervention became ≈£40-£45. At the base-case cost (£84), the intervention was cost-effective if it increased breastfeeding rates by at least 35-40%. CONCLUSIONS: Available breastfeeding interventions do not appear to be cost-effective under NICE criteria in England. Future breastfeeding interventions need to have higher effectiveness or lower cost compared with currently available interventions in order to become cost-effective. Public health and other societal interventions that protect, promote and support breastfeeding may be key in improving breastfeeding rates in the UK.

Psychological treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder in adults: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a potentially chronic and disabling disorder affecting a significant minority of people exposed to trauma. Various psychological treatments have been shown to be effective, but their relative effects are not well established. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and network meta-analyses of psychological interventions for adults with PTSD. Outcomes included PTSD symptom change scores post-treatment and at 1-4-month follow-up, and remission post-treatment. RESULTS: We included 90 trials, 6560 individuals and 22 interventions. Evidence was of moderate-to-low quality. Eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR) [standardised mean difference (SMD) -2.07; 95% credible interval (CrI) -2.70 to -1.44], combined somatic/cognitive therapies (SMD -1.69; 95% CrI -2.66 to -0.73), trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT) (SMD -1.46; 95% CrI -1.87 to -1.05) and self-help with support (SMD -1.46; 95% CrI -2.33 to -0.59) appeared to be most effective at reducing PTSD symptoms post-treatment v. waitlist, followed by non-TF-CBT, TF-CBT combined with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), SSRIs, self-help without support and counselling. EMDR and TF-CBT showed sustained effects at 1-4-month follow-up. EMDR, TF-CBT, self-help with support and counselling improved remission rates post-treatment. Results for other interventions were either inconclusive or based on limited evidence. CONCLUSIONS: EMDR and TF-CBT appear to be most effective at reducing symptoms and improving remission rates in adults with PTSD. They are also effective at sustaining symptom improvements beyond treatment endpoint. Further research needs to explore the long-term comparative effectiveness of psychological therapies for adults with PTSD and also the impact of severity and complexity of PTSD on treatment outcomes.

Research Review: Psychological and psychosocial treatments for children and young people with post-traumatic stress disorder: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a potentially chronic and disabling disorder that affects a significant minority of youth exposed to trauma. Previous studies have concluded that trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT) is an effective treatment for PTSD in youth, but the relative strengths of different psychological therapies are poorly understood. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and network meta-analyses of psychological and psychosocial interventions for children and young people with PTSD. Outcomes included PTSD symptom change scores post-treatment and at 1-4-month follow-up, and remission post-treatment. RESULTS: We included 32 trials of 17 interventions and 2,260 participants. Overall, the evidence was of moderate-to-low quality. No inconsistency was detected between direct and indirect evidence. Individual forms of TF-CBT showed consistently large effects in reducing PTSD symptoms post-treatment compared with waitlist. The order of interventions by descending magnitude of effect versus waitlist was as follows: cognitive therapy for PTSD (SMD -2.94, 95%CrI -3.94 to -1.95), combined somatic/cognitive therapies, child-parent psychotherapy, combined TF-CBT/parent training, meditation, narrative exposure, exposure/prolonged exposure, play therapy, Cohen TF-CBT/cognitive processing therapy (CPT), eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR), parent training, group TF-CBT, supportive counselling and family therapy (SMD -0.37, 95%CrI -1.60 to 0.84). Results for parent training, supportive counselling and family therapy were inconclusive. Cohen TF-CBT/CPT, group TF-CBT and supportive counselling had the largest evidence base. Results regarding changes in PTSD symptoms at follow-up and remission post-treatment were uncertain due to limited evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy, in particular individual forms, appears to be most effective in the management of PTSD in youth. EMDR is effective but to a lesser extent. Supportive counselling does not appear to be effective. Results suggest a large positive effect for emotional freedom technique, child-parent psychotherapy, combined TF-CBT/parent training, and meditation, but further research is needed to confirm these findings as they were based on very limited evidence.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions for children and young people with post-traumatic stress disorder.

BACKGROUND: PTSD in youth may lead to long-lasting psychological implications, educational difficulties and increased healthcare costs. Psychological interventions have been shown to be effective in its management. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological interventions for children and young people with PTSD. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 10 psychological interventions and no treatment for children and young people with PTSD, from the perspective of the National Health Service and personal social services in England. Effectiveness data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published sources, supplemented by expert opinion. RESULTS: Cognitive therapy for PTSD, a form of individual trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT), appeared to be the most cost-effective intervention for children and young people with PTSD (with a probability of .78 amongst the 11 evaluated options at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000/QALY), followed by narrative exposure (another form of individual TF-CBT), play therapy, and other forms of individual TF-CBT. After excluding cognitive therapy from the analysis, narrative exposure appeared to be the most cost-effective option with a .40 probability of being cost-effective amongst the remaining 10 options. EMDR, parent training and group TF-CBT occupied middle cost-effectiveness rankings. Family therapy and supportive counselling were less cost-effective than other active interventions. There was limited evidence for some interventions, in particular cognitive therapy for PTSD and parent training. CONCLUSIONS: Individual forms of TF-CBT and, to a lesser degree, play therapy appear to be cost-effective in the treatment of children and young people with PTSD. Family therapy and supportive counselling are unlikely to be cost-effective relative to other interventions. There is a need for well-conducted studies that examine the long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological treatments for children and young people with PTSD.

Treatments for bulimia nervosa: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Bulimia nervosa (BN) is a severe eating disorder that can be managed using a variety of treatments including pharmacological, psychological, and combination treatments. We aimed to compare their effectiveness and to identify the most effective for the treatment of BN in adults. METHODS: A search was conducted in Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, and Central from their inception to July 2016. Studies were included if they reported on treatments for adults who fulfilled diagnostic criteria for BN. Only randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that examined available psychological, pharmacological, or combination therapies licensed in the UK were included. We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) of RCTs. The outcome analysed was full remission at the end of treatment. RESULTS: We identified 21 eligible trials with 1828 participants involving 12 treatments, including wait list. The results of the NMA suggested that individual cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) (specific to eating disorders) was most effective in achieving remission at the end of treatment compared with wait list (OR 3.89, 95% CrI 1.19-14.02), followed by guided cognitive behavioural self-help (OR 3.81, 95% CrI 1.51-10.90). Inconsistency checks did not identify any significant inconsistency between the direct and indirect evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis suggested that the treatments that are most likely to achieve full remission are individual CBT (specific to eating disorders) and guided cognitive behavioural self-help, although no firm conclusions could be drawn due to the limited evidence base. There is a need for further research on the maintenance of treatment effects and the mediators of treatment outcome.

Mental health care system optimization from a health-economics perspective: where to sow and where to reap?

BACKGROUND: Health care expenditure (as % of GDP) has been rising in all OECD countries over the last decades. Now, in the context of the economic downturn, there is an even more pressing need to better guarantee the sustainability of health care systems. This requires that policy makers are informed about optimal allocation of budgets. We take the Dutch mental health system in the primary care setting as an example of new ways to approach optimal allocation. AIMS OF THE STUDY: To demonstrate how health economic modelling can help in identifying opportunities to improve the Dutch mental health care system for patients presenting at their GP with symptoms of anxiety, stress, symptoms of depression, alcohol abuse/dependence, anxiety disorder or depressive disorder such that changes in the health care system have the biggest leverage in terms of improved cost-effectiveness. Investigating such scenarios may serve as a starting point for setting an agenda for innovative and sustainable health care policies. METHODS: A health economic simulation model was used to synthesize clinical and economic evidence. The model was populated with data from GPs' national register on the diagnosis, treatment, referral and prescription of their patients in the year 2009. A series of `what-if' analyses was conducted to see what parameters (uptake, adherence, effectiveness and the costs of the interventions) are associated with the most substantial impact on the cost-effectiveness of the health care system overall. RESULTS: In terms of improving the overall cost-effectiveness of the primary mental health care system, substantial benefits could be derived from increasing uptake of psycho-education by GPs for patients presenting with stress and when low cost interventions are made available that help to increase the patients' compliance with pharmaceutical interventions, particularly in patients presenting with symptoms of anxiety. In terms of intervention costs, decreasing the costs of antidepressants is expected to yield the biggest impact on the cost-effectiveness of the primary mental health care system as a whole. These "target group -- intervention" combinations are the most appealing candidates for system innovation from a cost-effectiveness point of view, but need to be carefully aligned with other considerations such as equity, acceptability, appropriateness, feasibility and strength of evidence. DISCUSSION AND LIMITATIONS: The study has some strengths and limitations. Cost-effectiveness analysis is performed using a health economic model that is based on registration data from a sample of GPs, but assumptions had to be made on how these data could be extrapolated to all GPs. Parameters on compliance rates were obtained from a focus group or were based on mere assumptions, while the clinical effectiveness of interventions were taken from meta-analyses or randomised trials. Effectiveness is expressed in terms of years lived with disability (YLD) averted; indirect benefits such as reduction of lost productivity or lesser pressure on informal caregivers are not taken into account. Whenever assumptions had to be made, we opted for conservative estimates that are unlikely to have resulted in an overly optimistic portrayal of the cost-effectiveness ratios. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: The model can be used to guide health care system innovation, by identifying those parameters where changes in the uptake, compliance, effectiveness and costs of interventions have the largest impact on the cost-effectiveness of a mental health care system overall. In this sense, the model could assist policy makers during the first stage of decision making on where to make improvements in the health care system, or assist the process of guideline development. However, the improvement candidates need to be assessed during a second-stage 'normative filter', to address considerations other than cost-effectiveness.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of psychological, psychosocial, pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for adults with a new episode of depression.

Background: Various effective treatments for depression exist. We aimed to identify the most effective first-line treatments for new episodes of less and more severe depression (defined by depression scale cut-off scores), to update NICE guidance on the management of Depression in Adults in England. Methods: Systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published up to June 2020 (PROSPERO registration number CRD42019151328). We analysed interventions by class and individually. The primary efficacy outcome was depressive symptom change (expressed as standardised mean difference [SMD]). The review for this outcome was updated in November 2023. Findings: We included 676 RCTs, 105,477 participants and 63 treatment classes. For less severe depression, group cognitive/cognitive behavioural therapy (CT/CBT) class was efficacious versus treatment as usual [TAU], the reference treatment for this population [SMD -1.01 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] -1.76; -0.06)]. For more severe depression, efficacious classes versus pill placebo (reference treatment for this population) included combined individual CT/CBT with antidepressants [-1.18 (-2.07; -0.44)], individual behavioural therapies [-0.86 (-1.65; -0.16)], combined light therapy with antidepressants [-0.86 (-1.59; -0.12)], combined acupuncture with antidepressants [-0.78 (-1.12; -0.44)], individual CT/CBT [-0.78 (-1.42; -0.33)], mirtazapine [-0.35 (-0.48; -0.22)], serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors [-0.32 (-0.43; -0.22)], tricyclic antidepressants [-0.29 (-0.50; -0.05)], and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [-0.24 (-0.32; -0.16)]. Additional treatments showed evidence of efficacy at the intervention level. Evidence for less and more severe depression was of low and low-to-moderate quality, respectively. In the 2023 update, group yoga and self-help without support emerged as efficacious for less severe depression. For more severe depression, combined group exercise with antidepressants emerged as efficacious, whereas combined light therapy with antidepressants failed to remain efficacious. Interpretation: Group CT/CBT (and possibly group yoga and self-help) appears efficacious in less severe depression, whereas antidepressants do not show evidence of effect. Combined antidepressants with individual CT/CBT, acupuncture and, possibly, group exercise, individual psychological therapies (behavioural therapies, CT/CBT) alone, and antidepressants alone appear efficacious in more severe depression. Quality of evidence, cost-effectiveness, applicability and implementation issues also need to be considered when formulating clinical practice recommendations. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

Using Rasch analysis to form plausible health states amenable to valuation: the development of CORE-6D from a measure of common mental health problems (CORE-OM).

PURPOSE: To describe a new approach for deriving a preference-based index from a condition specific measure that uses Rasch analysis to develop health states. METHODS: The CORE-OM is a 34-item instrument monitoring clinical outcomes of people with common mental health problems. The CORE-OM is characterised by high correlation across its domains. Rasch analysis was used to reduce the number of items and response levels in order to produce a unidimensional measure and to generate a credible set of health states corresponding to different levels of symptom severity using the Rasch item threshold map. RESULTS: The proposed methodology resulted in the development of CORE-6D, a 2-dimensional health state descriptive system consisting of a unidimensional 5-item emotional component (derived from Rasch analysis) and a physical symptom item. Inspection of the Rasch item threshold map of the emotional component helped identify a set of 11 plausible health states, which, combined with 3 physical symptom item levels, form 33 plausible health states that can be used for the valuation of the instrument, resulting in the development of a preference-based index. CONCLUSIONS: This is a useful new approach to develop preference-based measures from existing instruments with high correlations across domains. The CORE-6D preference-based index will enable calculation of Quality-Adjusted Life Years in people with common mental health problems.

Network meta-analysis with competing risk outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis often requires information on the effectiveness of interventions on multiple outcomes, and commonly these take the form of competing risks. Nevertheless, methods for synthesis of randomized controlled trials with competing risk outcomes are limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and illustrate flexible evidence synthesis methods for trials reporting competing risk results, which allow for studies with different follow-up times, and that take account of the statistical dependencies between outcomes, regardless of the number of outcomes and treatments. METHODS: We propose a competing risk meta-analysis based on hazards, rather than probabilities, estimated in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework using WinBUGS software. Our approach builds on existing work on mixed treatment comparison (network) meta-analysis, which can be applied to any number of treatments, and any number of competing outcomes, and to data sets with varying follow-up times. We show how a fixed effect model can be estimated, and two random treatment effect models with alternative structures for between-trial variation. We suggest methods for choosing between these alternative models. RESULTS: We illustrate the methods by applying them to a data set involving 17 trials comparing nine antipsychotic treatments for schizophrenia including placebo, on three competing outcomes: relapse, discontinuation because of intolerable side effects, and discontinuation for other reasons. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian MCMC provides a flexible framework for synthesis of competing risk outcomes with multiple treatments, particularly suitable for embedding within probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder in adults.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a severe and disabling condition that may lead to functional impairment and reduced productivity. Psychological interventions have been shown to be effective in its management. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions for adults with PTSD. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 10 interventions and no treatment for adults with PTSD, from the perspective of the National Health Service and personal social services in England. Effectiveness data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published sources, supplemented by expert opinion. RESULTS: Eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR) appeared to be the most cost-effective intervention for adults with PTSD (with a probability of 0.34 amongst the 11 evaluated options at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000/QALY), followed by combined somatic/cognitive therapies, self-help with support, psychoeducation, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT), self-help without support, non-TF-CBT and combined TF-CBT/SSRIs. Counselling appeared to be less cost-effective than no treatment. TF-CBT had the largest evidence base. CONCLUSIONS: A number of interventions appear to be cost-effective for the management of PTSD in adults. EMDR appears to be the most cost-effective amongst them. TF-CBT has the largest evidence base. There remains a need for well-conducted studies that examine the long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of a range of treatments for adults with PTSD.

Reasons behind the rising rate of involuntary admissions under the Mental Health Act (1983): Service use and cost impact.

There has been a significant rise in the use of the Mental Health Act (1983) in England over the last 10 years. This includes both health-based Place of Safety detentions and involuntary admissions to NHS mental health facilities. Although these trends should clearly inform the implementation of mental health care and legislation, there is currently little understanding of what caused these increased rates. We therefore sought to explore potential underlying reasons for the increase in involuntary admissions and Place of Safety detentions and to ascertain the associated service costs. We extracted publicly available data to ascertain the observed number of involuntary admissions (Section 2 or 3) and health-based Place of Safety detentions in England between 1999/2000 and 2015/2016. A simple regression analysis then enabled us to compare observed admission rates with predicted rates, between 2008/2009 and 2015/2016. This prediction model was based on observed figures before 2008. We then generated a costing model for these rates and compared admission costs to alternative interventions. Finally, we added relevant covariates to the prediction model, to explore potential relationships with observed rates. Since 2008/2009, there has been a marked increase in the number of involuntary admissions (38%) and Place of Safety detentions (617%). The analysis revealed that for involuntary admissions, the period of greatest increase occurred after 2012, two years after austerity measures were implemented. For Place of Safety detentions, substantial rises were seen from 2008/2009 to 2015/2016, coinciding with the economic recession. The rise in Place of Safety detentions may have been worsened by a reduction in mental health bed availability. During the study period, involuntary admissions are estimated to have cost the English NHS £6.8 billion; with a further £120 million spent on Place of Safety detentions. This is approximately £597 million greater than predicted, had involuntary admissions continued to change at pre-2008 rates. We conclude that the rise in involuntary admissions, and to a lesser extent Place of Safety detentions, were associated with three specific impactful events: the economic recession, legislative changes and the impact of austerity measures on health and social care services. In addition to the extensive arguments presented elsewhere, there is also an urgent economic case for addressing this trend.

CT colonography and cost-effectiveness.

CT colonography (CTC) is increasingly advocated as an effective initial screening tool for colorectal cancer. Nowadays, policy-makers are increasingly interested in cost-effectiveness issues. A number of studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of CTC have been published to date. The majority of findings indicate that CTC is probably not cost-effective when colonoscopy is available, but this conclusion is sensitive to a number of key parameters. This review discusses the findings of these studies, and considers those factors which most influence final conclusions, notably intervention costs, compliance rates, effectiveness of colonoscopy, and the assumed prevalence and natural history of diminutive advanced polyps.

Unintended pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: magnitude of the problem and potential role of contraceptive implants to alleviate it.

BACKGROUND: Unintended pregnancies continue to burden many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Our aim was to estimate the number of unintended pregnancies in the region and model the impact of expanding use of contraceptive implants at the expense of short-term hormonal birth control methods. STUDY DESIGN: For the 42 countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated current levels of unintended pregnancy, prevalence of hormonal contraceptive use and number of unintended pregnancies stemming from early discontinuation and typical method failure rates. Using a decision-analytic model, we estimated the potential impact of more widespread use of the contraceptive implant. RESULTS: Every year in sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 14 million unintended pregnancies occur and a sizeable proportion is due to poor use of short-term hormonal methods. If 20% of the 17.6 million women using oral contraceptives or injectables wanted long-term protection and switched to the contraceptive implant, over 1.8 million unintended pregnancies could be averted over a 5-year period. CONCLUSION: Poor patterns of short-term hormonal contraceptive use (high discontinuation rates and incorrect use) contribute significantly to the problem of unintended pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa. More availability and widespread use of highly effective methods, such as the contraceptive implant, will improve reproductive health in the region.

A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Economic Evaluations of Pharmacological Interventions for People with Bipolar Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic mood disorder that causes substantial psychological and financial burden. Various pharmacological treatments are effective in the management and prevention of acute episodes of BD. In an era of tighter healthcare budgets and a need for more efficient use of resources, several economic evaluations have evaluated the cost effectiveness of treatments for BD. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to systematically review and appraise published economic evaluations of pharmacological interventions for BD. METHODS: A systematic search combining search terms specific to BD with a health economics search filter was conducted on six bibliographic databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, HTA, NHS EED, CENTRAL) in order to identify trial- or model-based full economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments of any phase of the disorder that were published between 1 January 1990 and 18 December 2015. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were critically appraised using the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) checklist, and synthesised in a narrative way. RESULTS: The review included 19 economic studies, which varied with regard to the type and number of interventions assessed, the study design, the phase of treatment (acute or maintenance), the source of efficacy data and the method for evidence synthesis, the outcome measures, the time horizon and the countries/settings in which the studies were conducted. The study quality was variable but the majority of studies were of high or fair quality. CONCLUSION: Pharmacological interventions are cost effective, compared with no treatment, in the management of BD, both in the acute and maintenance phases. However, it is difficult to draw safe conclusions on the relative cost effectiveness between drugs due to differences across studies and limitations characterising many of them. Future economic evaluations need to consider the whole range of treatment options available for the management of BD and adopt appropriate methods for evidence synthesis and economic modelling, to explore more robustly the relative cost effectiveness of pharmacological interventions for people with BD.

VivaScope® 1500 and 3000 systems for detecting and monitoring skin lesions: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Skin cancer is one of the most common cancers in the UK. The main risk factor is exposure to ultraviolet radiation from sunlight or the use of sunbeds. Patients with suspicious skin lesions are first examined with a dermoscope. After examination, those with non-cancerous lesions are discharged, but lesions that are still considered clinically suspicious are surgically removed. VivaScope(®) is a non-invasive technology designed to be used in conjunction with dermoscopy to provide a more accurate diagnosis, leading to fewer biopsies of benign lesions or to provide more accurate presurgical margins reducing the risk of cancer recurrence. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of VivaScope(®) 1500 (Caliber Imaging and Diagnostics, Rochester, NY, USA; Lucid Inc., Rochester, NY, USA; or Lucid Inc., MAVIG GmbH, Munich, Germany) and VivaScope(®) 3000 (Caliber Imaging and Diagnostics, Rochester, NY, USA) in the diagnosis of equivocal skin lesions, and VivaScope 3000 in lesion margin delineation prior to surgical excision of lesions. DATA SOURCES: Databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched on 14 October 2014, reference lists of included papers were assessed and clinical experts were contacted for additional information on published and unpublished studies. METHODS: A systematic review was carried out to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or observational studies evaluating dermoscopy plus VivaScope, or VivaScope alone, with histopathology as the reference test. A probabilistic de novo economic model was developed to synthesise the available data on costs and clinical outcomes from the UK NHS perspective. All costs were expressed as 2014 prices. RESULTS: Sixteen studies were included in the review, but they were too heterogeneous to be combined in a meta-analysis. One of two diagnostic studies that were deemed most representative of UK clinical practice reported that dermoscopy plus VivaScope 1500 was significantly more sensitive than dermoscopy alone in the diagnosis of melanoma (97.8% vs. 94.6%; p = 0.043) and significantly more specific than dermoscopy alone in the diagnosis of non-melanoma (92.4% vs. 26.74%; p < 0.000001). The results of another study suggest 100% [95% confidence interval (CI) 86.16% to 100%] sensitivity for dermoscopy plus VivaScope 1500 versus 100% (95% CI 91.51% to 100%) for dermoscopy alone. Specificity varied from 51.77% to 80.2% depending on the analysis set used. In terms of margin delineation with VivaScope, one study found that 17 out of 29 patients with visible lentigo maligna (LM) had subclinical disease of > 5 mm beyond the dermoscopically identified margin. Using 'optimistic' diagnostic data, the economic model resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £8877 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) (£9362 per QALY), while the 'less favourable' diagnostic data resulted in an ICER of £19,095 per QALY (£25,453 per QALY) in the diagnosis of suspected melanomas. VivaScope was also shown to be a dominant strategy when used for the diagnostic assessment of suspected basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Regarding margin delineation of LM, mapping with VivaScope was cost-effective, with an ICER of £10,241 per QALY (£11,651 per QALY). However, when VivaScope was used for diagnosis as well as mapping of LM, then the intervention cost was reduced and VivaScope became a dominant strategy. LIMITATIONS: There is an absence of UK data in the included studies and, therefore, generalisability of the results to the UK population is unclear. CONCLUSIONS: The use of VivaScope appears to be a cost-effective strategy in the diagnostic assessment of equivocal melanomas and BCCs, and in margin delineation of LM prior to surgical treatment. FUTURE WORK: High-quality RCTs are required in a UK population to assess the diagnostic accuracy of VivaScope in people with equivocal lesions. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014014433. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Cost Effectiveness of Psychological and Pharmacological Interventions for Social Anxiety Disorder: A Model-Based Economic Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Social anxiety disorder is one of the most persistent and common anxiety disorders. Individually delivered psychological therapies are the most effective treatment options for adults with social anxiety disorder, but they are associated with high intervention costs. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the relative cost effectiveness of a variety of psychological and pharmacological interventions for adults with social anxiety disorder. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) of 28 interventions for social anxiety disorder from the perspective of the British National Health Service and personal social services. Efficacy data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published literature and national sources, supplemented by expert opinion. RESULTS: Individual cognitive therapy was the most cost-effective intervention for adults with social anxiety disorder, followed by generic individual cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), phenelzine and book-based self-help without support. Other drugs, group-based psychological interventions and other individually delivered psychological interventions were less cost-effective. Results were influenced by limited evidence suggesting superiority of psychological interventions over drugs in retaining long-term effects. The analysis did not take into account side effects of drugs. CONCLUSION: Various forms of individually delivered CBT appear to be the most cost-effective options for the treatment of adults with social anxiety disorder. Consideration of side effects of drugs would only strengthen this conclusion, as it would improve even further the cost effectiveness of individually delivered CBT relative to phenelzine, which was the next most cost-effective option, due to the serious side effects associated with phenelzine. Further research needs to determine more accurately the long-term comparative benefits and harms of psychological and pharmacological interventions for social anxiety disorder and establish their relative cost effectiveness with greater certainty.