Determinants of HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Adherence Among Female Sex Workers in a Demonstration Study in Cotonou, Benin: A Study of Behavioral and Demographic Factors.

BACKGROUND: HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) efficacy is closely linked to adherence, and factors associated with PrEP adherence are not well understood and may differ across populations. As PrEP demonstration projects and implementation are ongoing, it is essential to understand factors associated with adherence to oral PrEP to design effective adherence interventions and maximize the public health impact of PrEP. We thus aimed to assess demographic and behavioral factors associated with optimal PrEP adherence (100%) among female sex workers (FSWs) participating in a demonstration project in Cotonou, Benin. METHODS: Female sex workers were provided with daily Truvada and followed quarterly for 1 to 2 years. Sociodemographics, partners, and behaviors were collected through face-to-face questionnaires. Another questionnaire based on sexual the theory of planned behavior and the theory of interpersonal behavior was also administered. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify factors associated with optimal daily adherence. RESULTS: At baseline, 255 FSWs were followed up. One-year increase in age of FSWs was associated with a 3% increase in optimal adherence (prevalence ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.05; P for trend = 0.0003), and optimal adherence decreased by 31% for every 6 months of follow-up (prevalence ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-0.79; P for trend < 0.0001). For the participants who have completed the behavioral questionnaires, high intention to adhere to the treatment was also a predictor of optimal adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts should be geared toward FSWs intending to use PrEP to help them reach adequate adherence levels for effective HIV protection.

Trends in Reported Sexual Behavior and Y-Chromosomal DNA Detection Among Female Sex Workers in the Senegal Preexposure Prophylaxis Demonstration Project.

BACKGROUND: Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce HIV acquisition among female sex workers (FSWs). However, changes in condomless sex frequency after PrEP initiation could reduce PrEP effectiveness when PrEP adherence is suboptimal as well as increase the risk of acquiring other sexually transmitted infections. Objective measures of condomless sex may be more accurate for determining changes in sexual behavior than self-reported measures. METHODS: We longitudinally measured self-reported condom use, number of clients, and presence of Y-chromosomal DNA (Yc-DNA) in vaginal swabs among 267 FSWs accessing PrEP at 4 clinics in Senegal between 2015 and 2016. We assessed trends in sexual behavior over time since PrEP initiation using generalized estimating equations and evaluated predictors of Yc-DNA detection. RESULTS: We found no increase in self-reported condomless sex with clients (odds ratio [OR], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-1.00), main partners (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96-1.02), or Yc-DNA detection (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90-1.08) over time since initiation. Y-chromosomal DNA was detected in 34 (22%) of 154 swabs tested and in 15 (26%) of 58 swabs from FSW reporting consistent condom use among both clients and main partners. Self-reported condom use with clients or main partners did not predict Yc-DNA detection. CONCLUSIONS: In a FSW PrEP demonstration project in Senegal, we found no evidence of risk compensation among FSWs on PrEP as measured by self-reported behavior or through Yc-DNA detection. Y-chromosomal DNA detection was frequently detected among FSWs reporting consistent condom use, highlighting limitations of self-reported sexual behavioral measures.

Evaluation of Senegal's prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance.

BACKGROUND: With the expansion of Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT) services in Senegal, there is growing interest in using PMTCT program data in lieu of conducting unlinked anonymous testing (UAT)-based ANC Sentinel Surveillance. For this reason, an evaluation was conducted in 2011-2012 to identify the gaps that need to be addressed while transitioning to using PMTCT program data for surveillance. METHODS: We conducted analyses to assess HIV prevalence rates and agreements between Sentinel Surveillance and PMTCT HIV test results. Also, a data quality assessment of the PMTCT program registers and data was conducted during the Sentinel Surveillance period (December 2011 to March 2012) and 3 months prior. Finally, we also assessed selection bias, which was the percentage difference from the HIV prevalence among all women enrolled in the antenatal clinic and the HIV prevalence among women who accepted PMTCT HIV testing. RESULTS: The median site HIV prevalence using routine PMTCT HIV testing data was 1.1% (IQR: 1.0) while the median site prevalence from the UAT HIV Sentinel Surveillance data was at 1.0% (IQR: 1.6). The Positive per cent agreement (PPA) of the PMTCT HIV test results compared to those of the Sentinel Surveillance was 85.1% (95% CI 77.2-90.7%), and the percent-negative agreement (PNA) was 99.9% (95% CI 99.8-99.9%). The overall HIV prevalence according to UAT was the same as that found for women accepting a PMTCT HIV test and those who refused, with percent bias at 0.00%. For several key PMTCT variables, including "HIV test offered" (85.2%), "HIV test acceptance" (78.0%), or "HIV test done" (58.8%), the proportion of records in registers with combined complete and valid data was below the WHO benchmark of 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The PPA of 85.1 was below the WHO benchmarks of 96.6%, while the combined data validity and completeness rates was below the WHO benchmark of 90% for many key PMTCT variables. These results suggested that Senegal will need to reinforce the quality of onsite HIV testing and improve program data collection practices in preparation for using PMTCT data for surveillance purposes.

Factors influencing the use of malaria prevention strategies by women in Senegal: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) as a cost-effective intervention for the prevention of malaria during pregnancy in endemic areas. This study was conducted to investigate: (1) the extent of use of both IPTp and ITNs, and (2) conduct multinomial regression to identify factors affecting the optimal usage of IPTp and ITNs among women with a recent pregnancy in Senegal. METHODS: Data was drawn from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 4616 women aged 15-49 years old, who had a recent pregnancy were analyzed. Multinomial logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with optimal uptake of malaria preventive strategies (both IPTp and ITN use). RESULTS: Amongst women who had a recent pregnancy, less than half of them used ITNs (46.84%) however, 80.35% reported taking IPTp during their last pregnancy. Overall, 37.51% reported using the optimal malaria preventive strategies. Women aged 35-49 years and living in the richer or middle wealth quintile were more likely to use optimal prevention methods. Pregnant women living in Diourbel, Saint-Louis, Thies, Louga, Fatick and Matam were more likely to use both IPTp-SP and ITNs compared to those living in Dakar. Additionally, women who initiated antenatal care in at least at 6 weeks of pregnancy or who attended four antenatal visits or more were more likely to use optimal malaria preventive methods during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown important factors that influence the uptake of malaria prevention methods during pregnancy in Senegal. These findings highlight the need for targeted preventive strategies when designing and implementing policies aimed at improving the uptake of these measures during pregnancy in Senegal.

Next-generation sequencing survey of acute febrile illness in Senegal (2020-2022).

Introduction: Acute febrile illnesses (AFI) in developing tropical and sub-tropical nations are challenging to diagnose due to the numerous causes and non-specific symptoms. The proliferation of rapid diagnostic testing and successful control campaigns against malaria have revealed that non-Plasmodium pathogens still contribute significantly to AFI burden. Thus, a more complete understanding of local trends and potential causes is important for selecting the correct treatment course, which in turn will reduce morbidity and mortality. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) in a laboratory setting can be used to identify known and novel pathogens in individuals with AFI. Methods: In this study, plasma was collected from 228 febrile patients tested negative for malaria at clinics across Senegal from 2020-2022. Total nucleic acids were extracted and converted to metagenomic NGS libraries. To identify viral pathogens, especially those present at low concentration, an aliquot of each library was processed with a viral enrichment panel and sequenced. Corresponding metagenomic libraries were also sequenced to identify non-viral pathogens. Results and Discussion: Sequencing reads for pathogens with a possible link to febrile illness were identified in 51/228 specimens, including (but not limited to): Borrelia crocidurae (N = 7), West Nile virus (N = 3), Rickettsia felis (N = 2), Bartonella quintana (N = 1), human herpesvirus 8 (N = 1), and Saffold virus (N = 1). Reads corresponding to Plasmodium falciparum were detected in 19 specimens, though their presence in the cohort was likely due to user error of rapid diagnostic testing or incorrect specimen segregation at the clinics. Mosquito-borne pathogens were typically detected just after the conclusion of the rainy season, while tick-borne pathogens were mostly detected before the rainy season. The three West Nile virus strains were phylogenetically characterized and shown to be related to both European and North American clades. Surveys such as this will increase the understanding of the potential causes of non-malarial AFI, which may help inform diagnostic and treatment options for clinicians who provide care to patients in Senegal.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Urban Settings in Senegal.

We used whole genome sequencing to identify and analyze mutations in SARS-CoV-2 in urban settings during the deadliest wave of the COVID-19 epidemic-from March to April 2021-in Senegal. Nasopharyngeal samples testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were sequenced on the Illumina NovaSeq 6000 sequencing system using the COVIDSeq protocol. A total of 291 genotypable consensus genome sequences were obtained. Phylogenetic analyses grouped the genomes into 16 distinct PANGOLIN lineages. The major lineage was B.1.1.420, despite circulation of the Alpha variant of concern (VOC). A total of 1125 different SNPs, identified relative to the Wuhan reference genome, were detected. These included 13 SNPs in non-coding regions. An average density of 37.2 SNPs per 1000 nucleotides was found, with the highest density occurring in ORF10. This analysis allowed, for the first time, the detection of a Senegalese SARS-CoV-2 strain belonging to the P.1.14 (GR/20J, Gamma V3) sublineage of the Brazilian P.1 lineage (or Gamma VOC). Overall, our results highlight substantial SARS-CoV-2 diversification in Senegal during the study period.

An emerging clade of Chikungunya West African genotype discovered in real-time during 2023 outbreak in Senegal.

Chikungunya (CHIKV) is a re-emerging endemic arbovirus in West Africa. Since July 2023, Senegal and Burkina Faso have been experiencing an ongoing outbreak, with over 300 confirmed cases detected so far in the regions of Kédougou and Tambacounda in Senegal, the largest recorded outbreak yet. CHIKV is typically maintained in a sylvatic cycle in Senegal but its evolution and factors contributing to re-emergence are so far unknown in West Africa, leaving a gap in understanding and responding to recurrent epidemics. We produced, in real-time, the first locally-generated and publicly available CHIKV whole genomes in West Africa, to characterize the genetic diversity of circulating strains, along with phylodynamic analysis to estimate time of emergence and population growth dynamics. A novel strain of the West African genotype, phylogenetically distinct from strains circulating in previous outbreaks, was identified. This suggests a likely new spillover from sylvatic cycles in rural Senegal and potential of seeding larger epidemics in urban settings in Senegal and elsewhere.

Artificial Intelligence approaches to predict COVID-19 infection in Senegal.

The SARS-CoV2 virus, which causes COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) has become a pandemic and has expanded all over the world. Because of increasing number of cases day by day, it takes time to interpret the data thus the limitations in terms of both treatment and findings are emerged. Due to such limitations, the need for clinical decisions making system with predictive algorithms has arisen. Predictive algorithms could potentially ease the strain on healthcare systems by identifying the diseases. In this study, we design clinical predictive models that estimate, using artificial intelligence and data, which patients are susceptible to receive a COVID-19 disease. To evaluate the predictive performance of our models, accuracy, AUROC, and scores calculated. From 12,727 individuals, models were tested with basic information (sex, age) and the patient's type of case, which is the combination of their symptoms, their travel during the last 14 days, their contact with an infected person or their participation in a festival requiring a gathering. We used 5 machine learning algorithms (LR, SVM, k-NN, RF, XGBoost) and 1 deep learning algorithm (ANN). Our models were validated with train-test split approach. The experimental results indicate that our predictive models identify patients that have COVID-19 disease at an accuracy of 73% and AUC of 69%. It is observed that predictive models trained on patients' basic information and type of case could be used to predict COVID-19 infection in Senegal and can be helpful for medical experts to optimize the resources efficiently.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a healthcare setting during the first pandemic wave in Senegal.

This study investigated the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G (IgG) during the first pandemic wave in Senegal. The seroprevalence rate of SARS-CoV-2 IgG was assessed in 10 cities in Senegal by testing plasma from volunteers attending healthcare clinics for reasons unrelated to coronavirus disease 2019 (n=3231) between June and October 2020. The overall positivity rate was 20.4% and large geographical differences in seropositivity (6-41.9%) were observed, suggesting that the true number of infections was substantially higher than the official estimate of 8.5%.

The early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Senegal was driven by the local emergence of B.1.416 and the introduction of B.1.1.420 from Europe.

Molecular surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is growing in west Africa, especially in the Republic of Senegal. Here, we present a molecular epidemiology study of the early waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in this country based on Bayesian phylogeographic approaches. Whereas the first wave in mid-2020 was characterized by a significant diversification of lineages and predominance of B.1.416, the second wave in late 2020 was composed primarily of B.1.1.420. Our results indicate that B.1.416 originated in Senegal and was exported mainly to Europe. In contrast, B.1.1.420 was introduced from Italy, gained fitness in Senegal, and then spread worldwide. Since both B.1.416 and B.1.1.420 lineages carry several positive selected mutations in the spike and nucleocapsid genes, each of which may explain their local dominance, their mutation profiles should be carefully monitored. As the pandemic continues to evolve, molecular surveillance in all regions of Africa will play a key role in stemming its spread.

Heterogeneity of the Omicron variant in Senegal.

•Omicron variant continues to progress in Senegal with the appearance of new contaminations.•IRESSEF detected the first positive case of the Omicron variant on Friday, December 3, 2021.•Since this date, the number of Omicron variant infections has increased over the weeks.•Molecular surveillance of the Omicron variant allowed us to identify a strong variation of this variant in our country.

Emergence of novel combinations of SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain variants in Senegal.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineages that carry mutations in the spike gene are of concern for potential impact to treatment and prevention efforts. To monitor for new SARS-CoV-2 mutations, a panel of specimens were sequenced from both wave one (N = 96), and wave two (N = 117) of the pandemic in Senegal by whole genome next generation sequencing. Amongst these genomes, new combinations of SARS-CoV-2 spike mutations were identified, with E484K + N501T, L452R + N501Y, and L452M + S477N exclusively found in second wave specimens. These sequences are evidence of local diversification over the course of the pandemic and parallel evolution of escape mutations in different lineages.

Mathematical Model Impact Analysis of a Real-Life Pre-exposure Prophylaxis and Treatment-As-Prevention Study Among Female Sex Workers in Cotonou, Benin.

BACKGROUND: Daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment-as-prevention (TasP) reduce HIV acquisition and transmission risk, respectively. A demonstration study (2015-2017) assessed TasP and PrEP feasibility among female sex workers (FSW) in Cotonou, Benin. SETTING: Cotonou, Benin. METHODS: We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model featuring PrEP and antiretroviral therapy (ART) among the high-risk (FSW and clients) and low-risk populations, calibrated to historical epidemiological and demonstration study data, reflecting observed lower PrEP uptake, adherence and retention compared with TasP. We estimated the population-level impact of the 2-year study and several 20-year intervention scenarios, varying coverage and adherence independently and together. We report the percentage [median, 2.5th-97.5th percentile uncertainty interval (95% UI)] of HIV infections prevented comparing the intervention and counterfactual (2017 coverages: 0% PrEP and 49% ART) scenarios. RESULTS: The 2-year study (2017 coverages: 9% PrEP and 83% ART) prevented an estimated 8% (95% UI 6-12) and 6% (3-10) infections among FSW over 2 and 20 years, respectively, compared with 7% (3-11) and 5% (2-9) overall. The PrEP and TasP arms prevented 0.4% (0.2-0.8) and 4.6% (2.2-8.7) infections overall over 20 years, respectively. Twenty-year PrEP and TasP scale-ups (2035 coverages: 47% PrEP and 88% ART) prevented 21% (17-26) and 17% (10-27) infections among FSW, respectively, and 5% (3-10) and 17% (10-27) overall. Compared with TasP scale-up alone, PrEP and TasP combined scale-up prevented 1.9× and 1.2× more infections among FSW and overall, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The demonstration study impact was modest, and mostly from TasP. Increasing PrEP adherence and coverage improves impact substantially among FSW, but little overall. We recommend TasP in prevention packages.

Comparison of adherence measurement tools used in a pre-exposure prophylaxis demonstration study among female sex workers in Benin.

BACKGROUND: Measuring adherence to PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis) remains challenging. Biological adherence measurements are reported to be more accurate than self-reports and pill counts but can be expensive and not suitable on a daily basis in resource-limited countries. Using data from a demonstration project on PrEP among female sex workers in Benin, we aimed to measure adherence to PrEP and compare self-report and pill count adherence to tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate (TDF) concentration in plasma to determine if these 2 measures are reliable and correlate well with biological adherence measurements. METHODS: Plasma TFV concentrations were analyzed in samples collected at day 14 follow-up visit and months 6, 12, 18, and 24 (or at last visit when follow-up was shorter). Self-reported adherence was captured at day 14 follow-up visit and then quarterly by asking participants to report the number of missed pills within the last week. For pill count, medications were refilled monthly and participants were asked to bring in their medication bottles at each follow-up visit. Using generalized estimating equations adherence measured by self-report and pill count was compared to plasma drug concentrations. RESULTS: Of 255 participants, 47.1% completed follow-up. Weighted optimal adherence combining data from all visits was 26.8% for TFV concentration, 56.0% by self-report and 18.9% by pill count. Adherence measured by both TFV concentrations and self-report decreased over time (P = .009 and P = .019, respectively), while the decreasing trend in adherence by pill count was not significant (P = .087). The decrease in adherence was greater using TFV concentrations than the other 2 adherence measures. CONCLUSION: With high levels of misreporting of adherence using self-report and pill count, the objective biomedical assessment of adherence via laboratory testing is optimal and more accurately reflects PrEP uptake and persistence. Alternative inexpensive and accurate approaches to monitor PrEP adherence should be investigated.

Uptake, retention, and outcomes in a demonstration project of pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in public health centers in Senegal.

The Senegal pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) Demonstration Project was an open-label cohort study assessing the delivery of daily oral PrEP to HIV-negative female sex workers (FSWs) in four Ministry of Health (MoH)-run clinics in Dakar, Senegal. We assessed uptake, retention in care, and adherence over up to 12 months of follow-up as well as HIV infection rates. Between July and November 2015, 350 individuals were approached and 324 (92.6%) were preliminarily eligible. Uptake was high, with 82.4% of eligible participants choosing to enroll and take PrEP. The mean age of those enrolled was 37.7 years (SD = 8.7), and approximately half had not attended school (41.2%). Among the 267 participants who were prescribed PrEP, 79.9 and 73.4% were retained in PrEP care at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Older age among FSWs was found to be the only significant predictor of lower discontinuation. We did not find significant differences in retention by site, education, condom use, or HIV risk perception. There were no new HIV infections at follow-up. Our results showed evidence of high interest in PrEP and very good PrEP retention rates among FSWs at 12-month follow-up when offered in MoH-run clinics, with older age as the only significant predictor of higher PrEP retention. This highlights the role that these clinics can play in expanding PrEP access nationwide.

Early antiretroviral therapy and daily pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among female sex workers in Cotonou, Benin: a prospective observational demonstration study.

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV prevalence remains high, especially among key populations. In such situations, combination prevention including clinical, behavioural, structural and biological components, as well as adequate treatment are important. We conducted a demonstration project at the Dispensaire IST, a clinic dedicated to female sex workers (FSWs) in Cotonou, on early antiretroviral therapy (E-ART, or immediate "test-and-treat") and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We present key indicators such as uptake, retention and adherence. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we recruited FSWs from October 4th 2014 to December 31st 2015 and followed them until December 31st 2016. FSWs were provided with daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (Truvada® ) for PrEP or received a first-line antiretroviral regimen as per Benin guidelines. We used generalized estimating equations to assess trends in adherence and sexual behaviour. RESULTS: Among FSWs in the catchment area, HIV testing coverage within the study framework was 95.5% (422/442). At baseline, HIV prevalence was 26.3% (111/422). Among eligible FSWs, 95.5% (105/110) were recruited for E-ART and 88.3% (256/290) for PrEP. Overall retention at the end of the study was 59.0% (62/105) for E-ART and 47.3% (121/256) for PrEP. Mean (±SD) duration of follow-up was 13.4 (±7.9) months for E-ART and 11.8 (±7.9) months for PrEP. Self-reported adherence was over 90% among most E-ART participants. For PrEP, adherence was lower and the proportion with 100% adherence decreased over time from 78.4% to 56.7% (p-trend < 0.0001). During the 250.1 person-years of follow-up among PrEP initiators, two seroconversions occurred (incidence 0.8/100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 0.3 to 1.9/100 person-years)). The two seroconverters had stopped using PrEP for at least six months before being found HIV-infected. In both groups, there was no evidence of reduced condom use. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data on key indicators for the integration of E-ART and PrEP into the HIV prevention combination package already offered to FSWs in Benin. PrEP may be more useful as an individual intervention for adherent FSWs rather than a specific public health intervention. E-ART was a more successful intervention in terms of retention and adherence and is now offered to all key populations in Benin. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02237.

Vaccination coverage and immunization timeliness among children aged 12-23 months in Senegal: a Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis approach.

INTRODUCTION: Expanded programme on immunizations in resource-limited settings currently measure vaccination coverage defined as the proportion of children aged 12-23 months that have completed their vaccination. However, this indicator does not address the important question of when the scheduled vaccines were administered. We assessed the determinants of timely immunization to help the national EPI program manage vaccine-preventable diseases and impact positively on child survival in Senegal. METHODS: Vaccination data were obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) carried out across the 14 regions in the country. Children were aged between 12-23 months. The assessment of vaccination coverage was done with the health card and/or by the mother's recall of the vaccination act. For each vaccine, an assessment of delay in age-appropriate vaccination was done following WHO recommendations. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to estimate the proportion vaccinated by age and cox-proportional hazards models were used to examine risk factors for delays. RESULTS: A total of 2444 living children between 12-23 months of age were included in the analysis. The country vaccination was below the WHO recommended coverage level and, there was a gap in timeliness of children immunization. While BCG vaccine uptake was over 95%, coverage decreased with increasing number of Pentavalent vaccine doses (Penta 1: 95.6%, Penta 2: 93.5%: Penta 3: 89.2%). Median delay for BCG was 1.7 weeks. For polio at birth, the median delay was 5 days; all other vaccine doses had median delays of 2-4 weeks. For Penta 1 and Penta 3, 23.5% and 15.7% were given late respectively. A quarter of measles vaccines were not administered or were scheduled after the recommended age. Vaccinations that were not administered within the recommended age ranges were associated with mothers' poor education level, multiple siblings, low socio-economic status and living in rural areas. CONCLUSION: A significant delay in receipt of infant vaccines is found in Senegal while vaccine coverage is suboptimal. The national expanded program on immunization should consider measuring age at immunization or using seroepidemiological data to better monitor its impact.

Population-level impact and herd effects following human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes were first implemented in several countries worldwide in 2007. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the population-level consequences and herd effects after female HPV vaccination programmes, to verify whether or not the high efficacy reported in randomised controlled clinical trials are materialising in real-world situations. METHODS: We searched the Medline and Embase databases (between Jan 1, 2007 and Feb 28, 2014) and conference abstracts for time-trend studies that analysed changes, between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, in the incidence or prevalence of at least one HPV-related endpoint: HPV infection, anogenital warts, and high-grade cervical lesions. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates. We stratified all analyses by age and sex. We did subgroup analyses by comparing studies according to vaccine type, vaccination coverage, and years since implementation of the vaccination programme. We assessed heterogeneity across studies using I(2) and χ(2) statistics and we did trends analysis to examine the dose-response association between HPV vaccination coverage and each study effect measure. FINDINGS: We identified 20 eligible studies, which were all undertaken in nine high-income countries and represent more than 140 million person-years of follow-up. In countries with female vaccination coverage of at least 50%, HPV type 16 and 18 infections decreased significantly between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods by 68% (RR 0·32, 95% CI 0·19-0·52) and anogenital warts decreased significantly by 61% (0·39, 0·22-0·71) in girls 13-19 years of age. Significant reductions were also recorded in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 in this age group of girls (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54-0·96), which suggests cross-protection. Additionally, significant reductions in anogenital warts were also reported in boys younger than 20 years of age (0·66 [95% CI 0·47-0·91]) and in women 20-39 years of age (0·68 [95% CI 0·51-0·89]), which suggests herd effects. In countries with female vaccination coverage lower than 50%, significant reductions in HPV types 16 and 18 infection (RR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74]) and in anogenital warts (0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·94]) occurred in girls younger than 20 years of age, with no indication of cross-protection or herd effects. INTERPRETATION: Our results are promising for the long-term population-level effects of HPV vaccination programmes. However, continued monitoring is essential to identify any signals of potential waning efficacy or type-replacement. FUNDING: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research.