Learning through the grapevine and the impact of the breadth and depth of social networks.

We study how communication platforms can improve social learning without censoring or fact-checking messages, when they have members who deliberately and/or inadvertently distort information. Message fidelity depends on social network depth (how many times information can be relayed) and breadth (the number of others with whom a typical user shares information). We characterize how the expected number of true minus false messages depends on breadth and depth of the network and the noise structure. Message fidelity can be improved by capping depth or, if that is not possible, limiting breadth, e.g., by capping the number of people to whom someone can forward a given message. Although caps reduce total communication, they increase the fraction of received messages that have traveled shorter distances and have had less opportunity to be altered, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio.

The economics of managing evolution.

Humans are altering biological systems at unprecedented rates, and these alterations often have longer-term evolutionary impacts. Most obvious is the spread of resistance to pesticides and antibiotics. There are a wide variety of management strategies available to slow this evolution, and there are many reasons for using them. In this paper, we focus on the economic aspects of evolution management and ask: When is it economically beneficial for an individual decision-maker to invest in evolution management? We derive a simple dimensionless inequality showing that it is cost-effective to manage evolution when the percentage increase in the effective life span of the biological resource that management generates is larger than the percentage increase in annual profit that could be obtained by not managing evolution. We show how this inequality can be used to determine optimal investment choices for single decision-makers, to determine Nash equilibrium investment choices for multiple interacting decision-makers, and to examine how these equilibrium choices respond to regulatory interventions aimed at stimulating investment in evolution management. Our results are illustrated with examples involving Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops and antibiotic use in fish farming.

Resistance diagnostics as a public health tool to combat antibiotic resistance: A model-based evaluation.

Rapid point-of-care resistance diagnostics (POC-RD) are a key tool in the fight against antibiotic resistance. By tailoring drug choice to infection genotype, doctors can improve treatment efficacy while limiting costs of inappropriate antibiotic prescription. Here, we combine epidemiological theory and data to assess the potential of resistance diagnostics (RD) innovations in a public health context, as a means to limit or even reverse selection for antibiotic resistance. POC-RD can be used to impose a nonbiological fitness cost on resistant strains by enabling diagnostic-informed treatment and targeted interventions that reduce resistant strains' opportunities for transmission. We assess this diagnostic-imposed fitness cost in the context of a spectrum of bacterial population biologies and find that POC-RD have a greater potential against obligate pathogens than opportunistic pathogens already subject to selection under "bystander" antibiotic exposure during asymptomatic carriage (e.g., the pneumococcus). We close by generalizing the notion of RD-informed strategies to incorporate carriage surveillance information and illustrate that coupling transmission-control interventions to the discovery of resistant strains in carriage can potentially select against resistance in a broad range of opportunistic pathogens.

Assessment of Pfs25 expressed from multiple soluble expression platforms for use as transmission-blocking vaccine candidates.

BACKGROUND: Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) have become a focus of strategies to control and eventually eliminate malaria as they target the entry of sexual stage into the Anopheles stephensi mosquito thereby preventing transmission, an essential component of the parasite life cycle. Such vaccines are envisioned as complements to vaccines that target human infection, such as RTS,S as well as drug treatment, and vector control strategies. A number of conserved proteins, including Pfs25, have been identified as promising TBV targets in research or early stage development. Pfs25 is a 25 kDa protein of Plasmodium falciparum expressed on the surface of zygotes and ookinetes. Its complex tertiary structure, including numerous cysteines, has led to difficulties in the expression of a recombinant protein that is homogeneous, with proper conformation, and free of glycosylation, a phenomenon not found in native parasite machinery. METHODS: While the expression and purification of Pfs25 in various systems, has been previously independently reported, here a parallel analysis of Pfs25 is presented to inform on the biochemical features of Pfs25 and their impact on functionality. Three scalable expression systems were used to express, purify, and evaluate Pfs25 both in vitro and in vivo, including the ability of each protein to produce functional antibodies through the standard membrane feeding assay. RESULTS: Through numerous attempts, soluble, monomeric Pfs25 derived from Escherichia coli was not achieved, while Pichia pastoris presented Pfs25 as an inhomogeneous product with glycosylation. In comparison, baculovirus produced a pure, monomeric protein free of glycosylation. The glycosylation present for Pichia produced Pfs25, showed no notable decrease in the ability to elicit transmission reducing antibodies in functional evaluation, while a reduced and alkylated Pfs25 (derived from plant and used as a control) was found to have significantly decreased transmission reducing activity, emphasizing the importance of ensuring correct disulfide stabilized conformation during vaccine design and production. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the biochemical features of Pfs25, produced from different expression systems, are described along with their impact on the ability of the protein to elicit functional antibodies. Pfs25 expressed using baculovirus and Pichia showed promise as candidates for vaccine development.

Concordance of in vitro and in vivo measures of non-replicating rotavirus vaccine potency.

Rotavirus infections remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among infants residing in low- and middle-income countries. To address the large need for protection from this vaccine-preventable disease we are developing a trivalent subunit rotavirus vaccine which is currently being evaluated in a multinational Phase 3 clinical trial for prevention of serious rotavirus gastroenteritis. Currently, there are no universally accepted in vivo or in vitro models that allow for correlation of field efficacy to an immune response against serious rotavirus gastroenteritis. As a new generation of non-replicating rotavirus vaccines are developed the lack of an established model for evaluating vaccine efficacy becomes a critical issue related to how vaccine potency and stability can be assessed. Our previous publication described the development of an in vitro ELISA to quantify individual vaccine antigens adsorbed to an aluminum hydroxide adjuvant to address the gap in vaccine potency methods for this non-replicating rotavirus vaccine candidate. In the present study, we report on concordance between ELISA readouts and in vivo immunogenicity in a guinea pig model as it relates to vaccine dosing levels and sensitivity to thermal stress. We found correlation between in vitro ELISA values and neutralizing antibody responses engendered after animal immunization. Furthermore, this in vitro assay could be used to demonstrate the effect of thermal stress on vaccine potency, and such results could be correlated with physicochemical analysis of the recombinant protein antigens. This work demonstrates the suitability of the in vitro ELISA to measure vaccine potency and the correlation of these measurements to an immunologic outcome.

Quantification of trivalent non-replicating rotavirus vaccine antigens in the presence of aluminum adjuvant.

Parenterally administered rotavirus vaccines may overcome the low efficacy observed in resource-poor regions that use live oral formulations. We have reported work on a trivalent nonreplicating rotavirus vaccine (NRRV) for parenteral administration consisting of the recombinant tetanus toxoid P2 CD4 epitope fused to a truncated VP8* fragment (P2-VP8*) for the P[4], P[6], and P[8] serotypes of rotavirus adjuvanted with aluminum. An essential part of developing this vaccine candidate was devising quantification methods for each antigen in the trivalent NRRV in the presence of aluminum adjuvant. This report describes the development of quantitative inhibition enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) for in vitro antigenicity determination of the adjuvanted trivalent NRRV using serotype-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against each of the P2-VP8* antigens. Adjuvanted trivalent vaccine samples are titrated and incubated with a constant concentration of specific mAbs against each NRRV P2-VP8* antigen variant. Unbound mAbs are measured by ELISA to indirectly quantify the amount of each antigen present in the trivalent vaccine. Sensitive, specific, and reproducible inhibition ELISAs were developed and qualified for each antigen and used for final product quantification and release testing without desorption of the vaccine antigen.

Feasibility Study for the Rectal Route of Administration for Gentamicin Evaluated in the Neonatal Minipig Model.

Neonatal infections are a major cause of newborn mortality in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in areas without access to inpatient care. To address this, the World Health Organization developed guidelines for delivering simplified antibiotic regimens (oral amoxicillin and intramuscular gentamicin) in outpatient settings to young infants with suspected serious bacterial infection when referral is not feasible. However, there are still limitations to access, as the regimen requires a health care provider trained in giving intramuscular injections to infants. To provide a needle-free, simplified alternate to intramuscular delivery, PATH investigated the feasibility of the rectal administration of gentamicin. Potential formulations were screened by in vitro testing, and 2 liquid enema formulations and a cocoa butter suppository were developed and evaluated in a preclinical study of the rectal uptake of gentamicin in a neonatal minipig model. Sera samples from the control group, dosed by intramuscular injection, resulted in expected sera concentrations of gentamicin, but no gentamicin was detected in the sera of groups rectally dosed with the test formulations. The results of this study did not provide evidence to support the therapeutic feasibility of rectally absorbed gentamicin.

Formulation and preclinical studies with a trivalent rotavirus P2-VP8 subunit vaccine.

More effective rotavirus vaccines are essential for preventing extensive diarrheal morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age in low-resource regions. Nonreplicating rotavirus vaccines (NRRV) administered parenterally provide an alternate vaccination method to the current licensed oral vaccine. Live attenuated vaccines and may generate increased efficacy in low-resource settings because the parenteral administration route bypasses some of the challenges associated with oral administration, including differences in intestinal environments. Work described here supports development of a trivalent NRRV vaccine for parenteral administration to avoid complications of the gastrointestinal route. Recombinant VP8* subunit proteins representing some of the most prevalent strains of rotavirus infecting humans - DS-1 (P[4]), 1076 (P[6]), and Wa (P[8]) - were combined with an aluminum adjuvant and the P2 epitope of tetanus toxoid to enhance the immune response to this NRRV antigen. Vaccine formulation development included selection of aluminum hydroxide (Alhydrogel®) as an appropriate adjuvant as well as an optimal buffer to maintain antigen stability and optimize antigen binding to the adjuvant. Characterization assays were used to select the lead vaccine formulation and monitor formulation stability. The NRRV liquid formulation was stable for one year at 2°C to 8°C and four weeks at 37°C. Immunogenicity of the NRRV formulation was evaluated using a guinea pig model, where we demonstrated that the adjuvant provided a 20-fold increase in neutralization titer against a homologous antigen and that the P2-fusion also enhanced the serum neutralizing antibody responses. This vaccine candidate is currently being evaluated in human clinical trials.

Effect of Aluminum Adjuvant and Preservatives on Structural Integrity and Physicochemical Stability Profiles of Three Recombinant Subunit Rotavirus Vaccine Antigens.

A nonreplicating rotavirus vaccine (NRRV) containing 3 recombinant fusion proteins adsorbed to aluminum adjuvant (Alhydrogel [AH]) is currently in clinical trials. The compatibility and stability of monovalent NRRV antigen with key components of a multidose vaccine formulation were examined using physicochemical and immunochemical methods. The extent and strength of antigen-adjuvant binding were diminished by increasing phosphate concentration, and acceptable levels were identified along with alternate buffering agents. Addition of the preservative thimerosal destabilized AH-adsorbed P2-VP8-P[8] as measured by differential scanning calorimetry. Over 3 months at 4°C, AH-adsorbed P2-VP8-P[8] was stable, whereas at 25°C and 37°C, instability was observed which was greatly accelerated by thimerosal addition. Loss of antibody binding (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) correlated with loss of structural integrity (differential scanning calorimetry, fluorescence spectroscopy) with concomitant nonnative disulfide bond formation (sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis) and Asn deamidation (liquid chromatography -mass spectrometry peptide mapping). An alternative preservative (2-phenoxyethanol) showed similar antigen destabilization. Due to limited availability, only key assays were performed with monovalent P2-VP8-P[4] and P2-VP8-P[6] AH-adsorbed antigens, and varying levels of preservative incompatibility were observed. In summary, monovalent AH-adsorbed NRRV antigens stored at 4°C showed good stability without preservatives; however, future formulation development efforts are required to prepare a stable, preservative-containing, multidose NRRV formulation.

Perverse incentives in the Medicare prescription drug benefit.

This paper analyzes some of the perverse incentives that may arise under the current Medicare prescription drug benefit design. In particular, risk adjustment for a stand-alone prescription drug benefit creates perverse incentives for prescription drug plans when making coverage decisions and/or for pharmaceutical companies when setting prices. This problem is new in that it does not arise with risk adjustment for other types of health care coverage. For this and other reasons, Medicare's drug benefit requires especially close regulatory oversight, now and in the future. We also consider a relatively minor change in financing the benefit that could lead to significant changes in how the benefit functions. In particular, if all plans were required to charge the same premium, there would be less diversity in quality, but also less need to regulate formulary composition, less budgetary uncertainty, and less upward pressure on drug prices.

Resistance diagnosis and the changing epidemiology of antibiotic resistance.

Widespread adoption of point-of-care resistance diagnostics (POCRD) reduces ineffective antibiotic use but could increase overall antibiotic use. Indeed, in the context of a standard susceptible-infected epidemiological model with a single antibiotic, POCRD accelerates the rise of resistance in the disease-causing bacterial population. When multiple antibiotics are available, however, POCRD may slow the rise of resistance even as more patients receive antibiotic treatment, belying the conventional wisdom that antibiotics are "exhaustible resources" whose increased use necessarily promotes the rise of resistance.

Resistance diagnosis and the changing economics of antibiotic discovery.

Point-of-care diagnostics that can determine an infection's antibiotic sensitivity increase the profitability of new antibiotics that enjoy patent protection, even when such diagnostics reduce the quantity of antibiotics sold. Advances in the science and technology underpinning rapid resistance diagnostics can therefore be expected to spur efforts to discover and develop new antibiotics, especially those with a narrow spectrum of activity that would otherwise fail to find a market.

Analysis of the potential for point-of-care test to enable individualised treatment of infections caused by antimicrobial-resistant and susceptible strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To create a mathematical model to investigate the treatment impact and economic implications of introducing an antimicrobial resistance point-of-care test (AMR POCT) for gonorrhoea as a way of extending the life of current last-line treatments. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: England. POPULATION: Patients accessing sexual health services. INTERVENTIONS: Incremental impact of introducing a hypothetical AMR POCT that could detect susceptibility to previous first-line antibiotics, for example, ciprofloxacin or penicillin, so that patients are given more tailored treatment, compared with the current situation where all patients are given therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin. The hypothetical intervention was assessed using a mathematical model developed in Excel. The model included initial and follow-up attendances, loss to follow-up, use of standard or tailored treatment, time taken to treatment and the costs of testing and treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of doses of ceftriaxone saved, mean time to most appropriate treatment, mean number of visits per (infected) patient, number of patients lost to follow-up and total cost of testing. RESULTS: In the current situation, an estimated 33 431 ceftriaxone treatments are administered annually and 792 gonococcal infections remain untreated due to loss to follow-up. The use of an AMR POCT for ciprofloxacin could reduce these ceftriaxone treatments by 66%, and for an AMR POCT for penicillin by 79%. The mean time for patients receiving an antibiotic treatment is reduced by 2 days in scenarios including POCT and no positive patients remain untreated through eliminating loss to follow-up. Such POCTs are estimated to add £34 million to testing costs, but this does not take into account reductions in costs of repeat attendances and the reuse of older, cheaper antimicrobials. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of AMR POCT could allow clinicians to discern between the majority of gonorrhoea-positive patients with strains that could be treated with older, previously abandoned first-line treatments, and those requiring our current last-line dual therapy. Such tests could extend the useful life of dual ceftriaxone and azithromycin therapy, thus pushing back the time when gonorrhoea may become untreatable.

Development of a Freeze-Dried, Heat-Stable Influenza Subunit Vaccine Formulation.

An influenza pandemic remains a major public health concern. A key strategy to prevent a pandemic is to stockpile and pre-position stable influenza vaccine to allow rapid deployment in response to an outbreak. However, most influenza vaccines today are formulated as liquids that are stable only within a temperature range of 2°C to 8°C and require use of a cold chain, making vaccine transportation, distribution, and storage complicated and expensive, particularly for developing countries. To support the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza preparedness in the United States and internationally, we developed two lead dry formulations of stable H1N1 influenza subunit vaccines using freeze-drying technology. The stable formulations contain an excipient combination of a disaccharide, such as sucrose or trehalose, and glycine, in addition to a surfactant and phosphate buffer. The freeze-dried vaccines were shown to be safe and remained immunogenic in an in vivo study in mice. Moreover, the lead formulations demonstrated no significant loss of activity after 40 months at storage temperatures of 25°C and 37°C. This stability can be particularly attractive as it could eliminate the need to use a cold chain for vaccine deployment and facilitate integration of vaccine distribution with general drug distribution where appropriate. These freeze-dried thermostable influenza subunit vaccines could also reduce the frequency of vaccine stockpile turnover, offering a cost-effective option for pandemic preparedness.

Single-use, electricity-free amplification device for detection of HIV-1.

Early and accurate diagnosis of HIV is key for the reduction of transmission and initiation of patient care. The availability of a rapid nucleic acid test (NAT) for use at the point-of-care (POC) will fill a gap in HIV diagnostics, improving the diagnosis of acute infection and HIV in infants born to infected mothers. In this study, we evaluated the performance of non-instrumented nucleic acid amplification, single-use disposable (NINA-SUD) devices for the detection of HIV-1 in whole blood using reverse-transcription, loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) with lyophilized reagents. The NINA-SUD heating device harnesses the heat from an exothermic chemical reaction initiated by the addition of saline to magnesium iron powder. Reproducibility was demonstrated between NINA-SUD units and comparable, if not superior, performance for detecting clinical specimens was observed as compared to the thermal cycler. The stability of the lyophilized HIV-1 RT-LAMP reagents was also demonstrated following storage at -20, 4, 25, and 30°C for up to one month. The single-use, disposable NAT minimizes hands-on time and has the potential to facilitate HIV-1 testing in resource-limited settings or at the POC.

Creating monolayers and thin films of a novel bis(alkyl) substituted asymmetrical polyoxotungstate, [[CH3(CH2)11Si]2OSiW11O39]4- using the Langmuir-Blodgett technique.

A bis(alkyl) substituted, asymmetric polyoxometalate [[CH3(CH2)3]4N]4[[CH3(CH2)11Si]2OSiW11O39], was prepared and incorporated into monolayer and multilayer thin films using Langmuir-Blodgett techniques.

Spray drying and vaccine stabilization.

Research on spray drying as a processing method to improve vaccine stabilization and to enable novel routes of vaccine delivery has produced promising results; however, the method has yet to be adopted for the manufacture of vaccine products by the pharmaceutical industry. This article reviews the status of spray-drying technology and discusses barriers and opportunities for its future application to vaccines.