Knowledge or noise? Making sense of General Practitioners' and Consultant use of 2-week-wait referrals for suspected cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis and treatment of cancer is the goal of the 2-week-wait referral pathway (2WW). Variation exists between General Practice use of 2WW and rates of consultant reprioritisation of GP referral from routine to 2WW (Consultant Upgrade). We investigated variation in General Practice and Consultant Upgrade 2WW referral activity. METHODS: Data from 185 000 referrals and 29 000 cancers recorded between 2011 and 2013 from the Northern Ireland Cancer Waiting Time database (CaPPS) were analysed to ascertain standardised referral rate ratios, detection rate (DR) (=sensitivity) and conversion rate (CR) (=positive predictive value) for Practice 2WW referrals and Consultant Upgrade 2WW. Metrics were compared using Spearman's rank correlation co-efficients. RESULTS: There was consistency in Practice and Consultant Upgrade 2WW referral rates over time, though not for annual DR (Spearman's ρ<0.37) or CR (Spearman's ρ<0.26). Practice 2WW referral rates correlated negatively with CR and positively with DR while correlations between DR and CR were restricted to single-year comparisons in Practice 2WW. In Consultant Upgrade, 2WW CR and DR were strongly correlated but only when the same cancers were included in both rates. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest 'random case mix' explains previously reported associations between CR and DR with more 'hard to detect' cancers in some Practices than in others in a given year corresponding to lower DR and CR. Use of Practice and Consultant Upgrade 2WW referral metrics to gauge General Practice performance may be misleading.

Predictors of an early death in patients diagnosed with colon cancer: a retrospective case-control study in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Despite considerable improvements, 5-year survival rates for colon cancer in the UK remain poor when compared with other socioeconomically similar countries. Variation in 5-year survival can be partly explained by higher rates of death within 3 months of diagnosis in the UK. This study investigated the characteristics of patients who died within 3 months of a diagnosis of colon cancer with the aim of identifying specific patient factors that can be addressed or accounted for to improve survival outcomes. DESIGN: A retrospective case-control study design was applied with matching on age, sex and year diagnosed. Patient, disease, clinical and service characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon cancer in a UK region (2005-2010) who survived less than 3 months from diagnosis (cases) were compared with patients who survived between 6 and 36 months (controls). Patient and clinical data were sourced from general practice notes and hospital databases 1-3 years prediagnosis. RESULTS: Being older (aged ≥78 years) and living in deprivation quintile 5 (OR=2.64, 95% CI 1.15 to 6.06), being unmarried and living alone (OR=1.64, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.50), being underweight compared with normal weight or obese (OR=3.99, 95% CI 1.14 to 14.0), and being older and living in a rural as opposed to urban area (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.21 to 3.17) were all independent predictors of early death from colon cancer. Missing information was also associated with early death, including unknown stage, histological type and marital/accommodation status after accounting for other factors. CONCLUSION: Several factors typically associated with social isolation were a recurring theme in patients who died early from colon cancer. This association is unexplained by clinical or diagnostic pathway characteristics. Socially isolated patients are a key target group to improve outcomes of the worst surviving patients, but further investigation is required to determine if being isolated itself is actually a cause of early death from colon cancer.

Trial of infographics in Northern Ireland (TINI): Preliminary evaluation and results of a randomized controlled trial comparing infographics with text.

Infographics represent a potential means of improving public knowledge about cancer. However, there is little experimental evidence of their efficacy. This preliminary study investigates whether infographics are superior to text for the communication of information about cancer risk in old age via a three armed randomized controlled trial. Trial involved allocation concealment and block randomization of 30 male participants aged over 50 to receive text information (control) or one of two infographics (interventions). Participants who viewed an infographic were more likely to know the correct association between cancer risk and old age compared with those viewing text information (risk ratio = 3.0, 95% confidence interval 0.82-10.90). Participants had limited understanding of the phrases "cancer incidence" and "cancer prevalence" but good understanding of the phrases "cancer risk factor" and "cancer stage." Possession of good numerical skills appears to be a key determinant of ability to extract meaning from statistical information provided; regardless of format. Initial results suggest icon array infographics may be more effective communication mediums than text but further study with more participants and an updated infographic is necessary to confirm this finding. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN33951209.