Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam.

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird's perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan's birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan's forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002-0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07-0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (>0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts.

How early does the selfing syndrome arise? Associations between selfing ability and flower size within populations of the mixed-mater Collinsia verna.

PREMISE: Widespread associations between selfing rate and floral size within and among taxa suggest that these traits may evolve in concert. Does this association develop immediately because of shared genetic and/or developmental control, or stepwise with selection shaping the evolution of one trait following the other? If the former, then association ought to appear within and across selfing populations. We explore this fundamental question in three populations of the mixed-mater Collinsia verna where autonomous selfing (AS) ability has been shown to be under selection by the pollination environment. METHODS: We grew clonal replicates of C. verna in a controlled environment to characterize broad-sense genetic correlations among traits within populations and to assess whether divergence in mating system and floral traits among these populations is consistent with their previously observed selection pressures. RESULTS: As predicted by their respective pollination environments, we demonstrate significant genetic divergence among populations in AS ability. However, patterns of divergence in floral traits (petal, stamen, and style size, stigmatic receptivity, and stigma-anther distance) were not as expected. Within populations, genetic variation in AS appeared largely independent from floral traits, except for a single weak negative association in one population between flower size and AS rate. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these results suggest that associations between selfing rate and floral traits across Collinsia species are not reflected at microevolutionary scales. If C. verna were to continue evolving toward the selfing syndrome, floral trait evolution would likely follow stepwise from mating system evolution.

Invasion-induced root-fungal disruptions alter plant water and nitrogen economies.

Despite widespread evidence that biological invasion influences both the biotic and abiotic soil environments, the extent to which these two pathways underpin the effects of invasion on plant traits and performance remains unknown. Leveraging a long-term (14-year) field experiment, we show that an allelochemical-producing invader affects plants through biotic mechanisms, altering the soil fungal community composition, with no apparent shifts in soil nutrient availability. Changes in belowground fungal communities resulted in high costs of nutrient uptake for native perennials and a shift in plant traits linked to their water and nutrient use efficiencies. Some plants in the invaded community compensate for the disruption of nutritional symbionts and reduced nutrient provisioning by sanctioning more nitrogen to photosynthesis and expending more water, which demonstrates a trade-off in trait investment. For the first time, we show that the disruption of belowground nutritional symbionts can drive plants towards alternative regions of their trait space in order to maintain water and nutrient economics.

Deer Indirectly Alter the Reproductive Strategy and Operational Sex Ratio of an Unpalatable Forest Perennial.

Environmental conditions impose restrictions and costs on reproduction. Multiple reproductive options exist when increased reproductive costs drive plant populations toward alternative reproductive strategies. Using 4 years of demographic data across a deer impact gradient, where deer alter the abiotic environment, we parameterize a size-dependent integral projection model for a sexually labile and unpalatable forest perennial to investigate the demographic processes driving differentiation in the operational sex ratio (OSR) of local populations. In addition to a relative increase in asexual reproduction, our results illustrate that nontrophic indirect effects by overabundant deer on this perennial result in delayed female sex expression to unsustainably large plant sizes and lead to more pronounced plant shrinkage following female sex expression, effectively increasing the cost of reproduction. Among plants of reproductive age, increased deer impact decreases the size-dependent probability of flowering and reduces reproductive consistency over time. This pattern in sex expression skews populations toward female-biased OSRs at low deer impact sites and male-biased OSRs at intermediate and high deer impact sites. While this shift toward a male-biased OSR may ameliorate pollen limitation, it also decreases the effective population size when coupled with increased asexual reproduction. The divergence of reproductive strategies and reduced lifetime fitness in response to indirect deer impacts illustrate the persistent long-term effects of overabundant herbivores on unpalatable understory perennials.

Pollen performance decreases with plant age for outcrosser but not selfer: evidence for cost of male performance.

PREMISE: Declines in reproductive capabilities with increasing age are common across the tree of life. However, in plants, mating system traits have rarely been tested for signs of senescence. Since reproduction is often resource limited, we might expect outcrossing and selfing taxa to allocate these resources differently, especially as a plant ages. Compared with selfers, outcrossers are expected to produce showy, rewarding flowers that attract pollinators and high-quality pollen that can successfully compete for ovules. Yet, this resource-intensive strategy of outcrossers may result in declines in floral allocation and pollen performance metrics, relative to selfers. METHODS: To explore age-related changes in reproduction, we measured flower size and pollen germinability over the flowering period for multiple populations of an annual sister species pair, Collinsia linearis (outcrosser) and C. rattanii (selfer), in a growth chamber experiment. RESULTS: We found that flower size decreased significantly with age in both species. The outcrosser expressed a significant and dramatic (88%) decline in pollen germinability with age, while the selfer's pollen germinability decline was non-significant and low (17%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the idea that the higher total cost of reproduction in outcrossers can deplete available resources more rapidly than in selfers, manifesting as a decline in male performance with plant age.

Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model.

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild.

Seasonal life history trade-offs in two leafwing butterflies: Delaying reproductive development increases life expectancy.

Surviving inhospitable periods or seasons may greatly affect fitness. Evidence of this exists in the prevalence of dormant stages in the life cycles of most insects. Here I focused on butterflies with distinct seasonal morphological types (not a genetic polymorphism) in which one morphological type, or form, delays reproduction until favorable conditions return, while the other form develops in an environment that favors direct reproduction. For two butterflies, Anaea aidea and A. andria, I tested the hypothesis that the development of each seasonal form involves a differential allocation of resources to survival at eclosion. I assayed differences in adult longevity among summer and winter forms in either a warm, active environment or a cool, calm environment. Winter form adults lived 40 times longer than summer form but only in calm, cool conditions. The magnitude of this difference provided compelling evidence that the winter form body plan and metabolic strategy (i.e. resource conservatism) favor long term survival. This research suggests that winter form adults maintain lowered metabolic rate, a common feature of diapause, to conserve resources and delay senescence while overwintering.