Demand Forecasting Approaches for New Contraceptive Technologies: A Landscape Review and Recommendations for Alignment.

INTRODUCTION: Market size estimations and demand forecasts use a variety of methodological approaches to inform decision-making around new (and lesser-used) contraceptive methods. For contraceptive products already available at scale in a market, historical procurement and consumption data can help to inform these forecasts. However, little published guidance is available on appropriate approaches to estimating contraceptive demand in the absence of historical data. METHODS: This landscape review aimed to describe the variety of approaches for modeling demand for new contraceptive methods, highlight opportunities for alignment around forecasting practices, and make recommendations to support more accurate forecasting and sound decision-making based on forecasts. We used the published scientific and gray literature to inform the development of a semistructured guide for key informant interviews. We conducted interviews with 29 experts representing a spectrum of interests in market size estimation and demand forecasting for new contraceptive methods (e.g., ministries of health, donors, manufacturers, technical assistance providers, and demand forecasting specialists). We coded notes from the interviews using thematic content analysis. RESULTS: The purposes of market size estimation and demand forecasting for new contraceptive methods vary widely, as do associated model inputs and outputs. Key informants revealed a need for more standardized language around market size estimation and demand forecasting and highlighted key recommendations: select models that are fit-for-purpose, clearly articulate assumptions and uncertainty in model outputs, consider a broad range of contraceptive options in a forecast to capture the complete contraceptive supply environment, and perform a reality check of results and refresh assumptions. CONCLUSION: We recommend following a simple decision pathway to ensure that forecasts are fit-for-purpose, with appropriate inputs, outputs, and assumptions clearly articulated. Common pitfalls around overestimating demand should be avoided. Incorporating best practices into forecasting exercises will ensure that models are useful for the stakeholders.

Near Point-of-Care HIV Viral Load: Targeted Testing at Large Facilities.

INTRODUCTION: Point-of-care (POC) technologies in resource-limited settings can circumvent challenges of centralized laboratory testing, improving clinical management. However, higher device costs and uncertain indications for use have inhibited scaling up POC modalities. To address this gap, we investigated the feasibility and cost of targeted near-POC viral load (VL) testing in 2 large HIV clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. METHODS: VL testing using GeneXpert was targeted for patients suspected of treatment failure or returning to care after a previously elevated VL (>1000 copies/mL). Descriptive analysis of retrospective clinical and cost data is presented. RESULTS: Two thousand eight hundred thirteen near-POC VL tests were conducted. One thousand five hundred eleven (54%) tests were for patients for whom results and reason for the test were documented: 57% (794/1389) of tests were to confirm a previously high VL, and 33% (462/1389) were due to clinical indications. Sixty-one percent (926/1511) of patients had a high VL, of whom 78% (719/926) had a recorded clinical action: 77% (557/719) switched to second line antiretroviral therapy, and 15% (194/719) were referred for intensive adherence counseling. Eighty-two percent (567/687) of patients received a clinical action on the same day as testing. The "all-in" cost was $33.71 for a valid POC VL test, compared with an international benchmark for a centralized VL test of $28.62. CONCLUSION: Targeted, near-POC VL testing was feasible and consistently enabled prompt clinical action. The difference between the "all-in" cost of near-POC VL and centralized testing of $5.09 could be further reduced in an optimized national program by combining targeted near-POC testing and centralized testing.

Proportions of CD4 test results indicating advanced HIV disease remain consistently high at primary health care facilities across four high HIV burden countries.

BACKGROUND: Globally, nearly 22 million HIV-infected patients are currently accessing antiretroviral treatment; however, almost one million people living with HIV died of AIDS-related illnesses in 2018. Advanced HIV disease remains a significant issue to curb HIV-related mortality. METHODS: We analyzed 864,389 CD4 testing records collected by 1,016 Alere Pima Analyzers implemented at a variety of facilities, including peripheral facilities, between January 2012 and December 2016 across four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Routinely collected data and programmatic records were used to analyze the median CD4 counts and proportions of patients with advanced HIV disease by country, facility type, and year. RESULTS: Median CD4 counts were between 409-444 cells/ul each year since 2012 with a median in 2016 of 444 cells/ul (n = 319,829). The proportion of test results returning CD4 counts above 500 cells/ul has increased slowly each year with 41.8% (95% CI: 41.6-41.9%) of tests having a CD4 count above 500 cells/ul in 2016. Median CD4 counts were similar across facility types. The proportion of test results indicating advanced HIV disease has remained fairly consistent: 19.4% (95% CI: 18.8-20.1%) in 2012 compared to 16.1% (95% CI: 16.0-16.3%) in 2016. The proportion of test results indicating advanced HIV disease annually ranged from 14.5% in Uganda to 29.8% in Cameroon. 6.9% (95% CI: 6.8-7.0%) of test results showed very advanced HIV disease (CD4<100 cells/ul) in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of CD4 test results indicating advanced disease was relatively high and consistent across four high HIV burden countries.

Point-of-care CD4 technology invalid result rates in public health care settings across five countries.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, point-of-care (POC) CD4 testing platforms have been introduced in both urban and rural settings to expand access to testing by bringing diagnostic services closer to patients. We conducted an analysis of routinely collected CD4 testing data to determine the invalid result rates associated with POC CD4 testing. METHODS: We analyzed 981,152 CD4 testing records collected from Alere Pima Analyzers between January 2011 and December 2016 across five countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Routinely collected data and programmatic records were used to determine the rate of invalid test results per month, by facility type, and by operator based on cumulative usage during the study period. In addition, frequency of invalid test types and utilization of control beads were assessed. RESULTS: Across the five countries, 75,530 invalid messages were returned, resulting in an overall invalid result rate of 7.7%. The invalid result rate by country ranged from 6.6% to 11.2%. Invalid result rates were consistent across facility types. Invalid result rates were inversely correlated with operator usage: low volume operators (<50 tests over study period) experienced an invalid result rate of 10.2%, while high volume operators (>500 tests over study period) experienced an invalid result rate of 5.5%. Two invalid result types (exposure position control and reagent control) accounted for nearly 50% of invalid results. Routine data showed that control beads were run on 88.3% of days that the device was used. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis found that the rate of invalid results was consistent across all types of health facilities, indicating that decentralization of POC CD4 testing to lower level health facilities did not exhibit high invalid result rates or increase cartridge wastage. Additionally, invalid result rates were inversely correlated to operator usage, with high-volume operators experiencing lower invalid result rates than low-volume operators. POC CD4 testing can, therefore, be performed in decentralized national testing programs; however, adequate training, quality assurance, routine monitoring, and ongoing mentorship should also be implemented for success.