Evaluating Messaging on Prenatal Health Behaviors Using Social Media Data: Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Social media platforms are increasingly being used to disseminate messages about prenatal health. However, to date, we lack a systematic assessment of how to evaluate the impact of official prenatal health messaging and campaigns using social media data. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to review both the published and gray literature on how official prenatal health messaging and campaigns have been evaluated to date in terms of impact, acceptability, effectiveness, and unintended consequences, using social media data. METHODS: A total of 6 electronic databases were searched and supplemented with the hand-searching of reference lists. Both published and gray literature were eligible for review. Data were analyzed using content analysis for descriptive data and a thematic synthesis approach to summarize qualitative evidence. A quality appraisal tool, designed especially for use with social media data, was used to assess the quality of the included articles. RESULTS: A total of 11 studies were eligible for the review. The results showed that the most common prenatal health behavior targeted was alcohol consumption, and Facebook was the most commonly used source of social media data. The majority (n=6) of articles used social media data for descriptive purposes only. The results also showed that there was a lack of evaluation of the effectiveness, acceptability, and unintended consequences of the prenatal health message or campaign. CONCLUSIONS: Social media is a widely used and potentially valuable resource for communicating and evaluating prenatal health messaging. However, this review suggests that there is a need to develop and adopt sound methodology on how to evaluate prenatal health messaging using social media data, for the benefit of future research and to inform public health practice.

Conceptualising natural and quasi experiments in public health.

BACKGROUND: Natural or quasi experiments are appealing for public health research because they enable the evaluation of events or interventions that are difficult or impossible to manipulate experimentally, such as many policy and health system reforms. However, there remains ambiguity in the literature about their definition and how they differ from randomized controlled experiments and from other observational designs. We conceptualise natural experiments in the context of public health evaluations and align the study design to the Target Trial Framework. METHODS: A literature search was conducted, and key methodological papers were used to develop this work. Peer-reviewed papers were supplemented by grey literature. RESULTS: Natural experiment studies (NES) combine features of experiments and non-experiments. They differ from planned experiments, such as randomized controlled trials, in that exposure allocation is not controlled by researchers. They differ from other observational designs in that they evaluate the impact of events or process that leads to differences in exposure. As a result they are, in theory, less susceptible to bias than other observational study designs. Importantly, causal inference relies heavily on the assumption that exposure allocation can be considered 'as-if randomized'. The target trial framework provides a systematic basis for evaluating this assumption and the other design elements that underpin the causal claims that can be made from NES. CONCLUSIONS: NES should be considered a type of study design rather than a set of tools for analyses of non-randomized interventions. Alignment of NES to the Target Trial framework will clarify the strength of evidence underpinning claims about the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Association between cigarette smoking status and voting intentions: Cross sectional surveys in England 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cigarette smoking takes place within a cultural and social context. Political views and practices are an important part of that context. To gain a better understanding of smoking, it may be helpful to understand its association with voting patterns as an expression of the political views and practices of the population who smoke. This study aimed to assess the association between cigarette smoking and voting intentions and to examine how far any association can be explained by sociodemographic factors and alcohol use. METHODS: Pooled monthly representative repeat cross-sectional household surveys of adults (16+) in England (N = 55,482) between 2015 and 2020 were used to assess the association between cigarette smoking status and voting intentions, and whether this was accounted for by age, occupational grade, gender, region and alcohol use. Voting intention was measured by asking 'How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?' Respondents chose from a list of the major English political parties or indicated their intention not to vote. RESULTS: In adjusted multinomial regression, compared with intending to vote Conservative (majority party of government during the period), being undecided (aOR1.22 [1.13-1.33] <0.001), intending to vote Labour (aOR1.27 [1.16-1.36] <0.001), to vote "Other" (aOR1.54 [1.37-1.72] <0.001), or not to vote (aOR1.93 [1.77-2.11] <0.001) was associated with higher odds of current relative to never smoking rates. Intending to vote for the Liberal Democrats was associated with a significant lower odds of current smoking prevalence (aOR0.80 [0.70-0.91] <0.001) compared with intending to vote Conservative. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for a range of other factors, current as compared with never-smokers appear more likely to intend not to vote, to be undecided, to vote for Labour or a non-mainstream party, and less likely to vote for the Liberal Democrats, compared with the Conservative party.

The causal web of foetal alcohol spectrum disorders: a review and causal diagram.

Foetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) are a leading cause of developmental disability. Prenatal alcohol use is the sole necessary cause of FASD, but it is not always sufficient. Multiple factors influence a child's susceptibility to FASD following prenatal alcohol exposure. Much of the FASD risk factor literature has been limited to discussions of association, rather than causation. While knowledge of predictor variables is important for identifying who is most at risk of FASD and for targeting interventions, causal knowledge is important for identifying effective mechanisms for prevention and intervention programmes. We conducted a systematic search and narrative synthesis of the evidence and used this to create a causal diagram (directed acyclic graph; DAG) to describe the causal pathways to FASD. Our results show that the aetiology of FASD is multifaceted and complex. FASD risk is determined by a range of lifestyle, sociodemographic, maternal, social, gestational, and genetic factors. The causal diagram that we present in this review provides a comprehensive summary of causal risk factors for FASD and can be used as a tool to inform data collection and statistical modelling strategies to minimise bias in future studies of FASD.

Screening prevalence of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders in a region of the United Kingdom: A population-based birth-cohort study.

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) are lifelong disabilities caused by prenatal alcohol exposure. Prenatal alcohol use is common in the UK, but FASD prevalence was unknown. Prevalence estimates are essential for informing FASD prevention, identification and support. We applied novel screening algorithms to existing data to estimate the screening prevalence of FASD. Data were from a population-based cohort study (ALSPAC), which recruited pregnant women with expected delivery dates between 1991 and 1992 from the Bristol area of the UK. We evaluated different missing data strategies by comparing results from complete case, single imputation (which assumed that missing data indicated no exposure and no impairment), and multiple imputation methods. 6.0% of children screened positive for FASD in the analysis that used the single imputation method (total N = 13,495), 7.2% in complete case analysis (total N = 223) and 17.0% in the analysis with multiply imputed data (total N = 13,495). A positive FASD screen was more common among children of lower socioeconomic status and children from unplanned pregnancies. Our analyses showed that the complete case and single imputation methods that are commonly used in FASD prevalence studies are likely to underestimate FASD prevalence. Although not equivalent to a formal diagnosis, these screening prevalence estimates suggest that FASD is likely to be a significant public health concern in the UK. Given current patterns of alcohol consumption and recent changes in prenatal guidance, active case ascertainment studies are urgently needed to further clarify the current epidemiology of FASD in the general population of the UK.

Feasibility and acceptability of a motivational interviewing breastfeeding peer support intervention.

An uncontrolled study with process evaluation was conducted in three U.K. community maternity sites to establish the feasibility and acceptability of delivering a novel breastfeeding peer-support intervention informed by motivational interviewing (MI; Mam-Kind). Peer-supporters were trained to deliver the Mam-Kind intervention that provided intensive one-to-one peer-support, including (a) antenatal contact, (b) face-to-face contact within 48 hr of birth, (c) proactive (peer-supporter led) alternate day contact for 2 weeks after birth, and (d) mother-led contact for a further 6 weeks. Peer-supporters completed structured diaries and audio-recorded face-to-face sessions with mothers. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of mothers, health professionals, and all peer-supporters. Interview data were analysed thematically to assess intervention acceptability. Audio-recorded peer-support sessions were assessed for intervention fidelity and the use of MI techniques, using the MITI 4.2 tool. Eight peer-supporters delivered the Mam-Kind intervention to 70 mothers in three National Health Service maternity services. Qualitative interviews with mothers (n = 28), peer-supporters (n = 8), and health professionals (n = 12) indicated that the intervention was acceptable, and health professionals felt it could be integrated with existing services. There was high fidelity to intervention content; 93% of intervention objectives were met during sessions. However, peer-supporters reported difficulties in adapting from an expert-by-experience role to a collaborative role. We have established the feasibility and acceptability of providing breastfeeding peer-support using a MI-informed approach. Refinement of the intervention is needed to further develop peer-supporters' skills in providing mother-centred support. The refined intervention should be tested for effectiveness in a randomised controlled trial.

Exploring the impact of public health teams on alcohol premises licensing in England and Scotland (ExILEnS): procotol for a mixed methods natural experiment evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Recent regulatory changes in the system by which premises are licensed to sell alcohol, have given health representatives a formal role in the process in England and Scotland. The degree to which local public health teams engage with this process varies by locality in both nations, which have different licensing regimes. This study aims to critically assess the impact on alcohol-related harms - and mechanisms - of public health stakeholders' engagement in alcohol premises licensing from 2012 to 2018, comparing local areas with differing types and intensities of engagement, and examining practice in Scotland and England. METHODS: The study will recruit 20 local authority areas where public health stakeholders have actively engaged with the alcohol premises licensing system (the 'intervention') and match them to a group of 20 lower activity areas using genetic matching. Four work packages are included: (1) Structured interviews and documentary analysis will examine the type and level of intervention activity from 2012 to 2018, creating a novel composite measure of the intensity of such activity and will assess the local licensing system and potential confounding activities over the same period. In-depth interviews with public health, licensing, police and others will explore perceived mechanisms of change, acceptability, and impact. (2) Using longitudinal growth models and time series analyses, the study will evaluate the impact of high and low levels of activity on alcohol-related harms using routine data from baseline 2009 to 2018. (3) Intervention costs, estimated National Health Service cost savings and health gains will be evaluated using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to estimate impact on alcohol consumption and health inequalities. (4) The study will engage public health teams to create a new theory of change for public health involvement in the licensing process using our data. We will share findings with local, national and international stakeholders. DISCUSSION: This interdisciplinary study examines, for the first time, whether and how public health stakeholders' involvement in alcohol licensing impacts on alcohol harms. Using mixed methods and drawing on complex systems thinking, it will make an important contribution to an expanding literature evaluating interventions not suited to traditional epidemiological research.

Pharmacological interventions for challenging behaviour in children with intellectual disabilities: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Psychotropic medications are frequently used to treat challenging behaviour in children with intellectual disabilities, despite a lack of evidence for their efficacy. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of pharmacological interventions for challenging behaviour among children with intellectual disabilities. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched and supplemented with a hand search of reference lists and trial registries. Randomised controlled trials of pharmacological interventions for challenging behaviour among children with intellectual disabilities were included. Data were analysed using meta-analysis or described narratively if meta-analysis was not possible. For quality assessment, the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach were used. RESULTS: Fourteen studies including 912 participants met inclusion criteria. Antipsychotic medication reduced challenging behaviour among children with intellectual disabilities in the short-term (SMD = -1.09, p < 0.001 for risperidone; SMD = -0.64, p <0.001 for aripiprazole). However, there were significant side-effects including elevated prolactin levels (SMD = 3.22, p < 0.001) and weight gain (SMD = 0.82, p < 0.001). Evidence was inconclusive regarding the effectiveness of anticonvulsants and antioxidants for reducing challenging behaviour. The quality of all evidence was low and there were no long term follow up studies. CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic medications appear to be effective for reducing challenging behaviour in the short-term among children with intellectual disabilities, but they carry a risk of significant side effects. Findings from this review must be interpreted with caution as studies were typically of low quality and most outcomes were based on a small number of studies. Further long-term, high-quality research is needed to determine the effectiveness and safety of psychotropic medication for reducing challenging behaviour.

Analyzing Questions About Alcohol in Pregnancy Using Web-Based Forum Topics: Qualitative Content Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal alcohol exposure represents a substantial public health concern as it may lead to detrimental outcomes, including pregnancy complications and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder. Although UK national guidance recommends abstaining from alcohol if pregnant or planning a pregnancy, evidence suggests that confusion remains on this topic among members of the public, and little is known about what questions people have about consumption of alcohol in pregnancy outside of health care settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess what questions and topics are raised on alcohol in pregnancy on a web-based UK-based parenting forum and how these correspond to official public health guidelines with respect to 2 critical events: the implementation of the revised UK Chief Medical Officers' (CMO) low-risk drinking guidelines (2016) and the first COVID-19 pandemic lockdown (2020). METHODS: All thread starts mentioning alcohol in the "Pregnancy" forum were collected from Mumsnet for the period 2002 to 2022 and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the number and proportion of thread starts for each topic over the whole study period and for the periods corresponding to the change in CMO guidance and the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 395 thread starts were analyzed, and key topics included "Asking for advice on whether it is safe to consume alcohol" or on "safe limits" and concerns about having consumed alcohol before being aware of a pregnancy. In addition, the Mumsnet thread starts included discussions and information seeking on "Research, guidelines, and official information about alcohol in pregnancy." Topics discussed on Mumsnet regarding alcohol in pregnancy remained broadly similar between 2002 and 2022, although thread starts disclosing prenatal alcohol use were more common before the introduction of the revised CMO guidance than in later periods. CONCLUSIONS: Web-based discussions within a UK parenting forum indicated that users were often unclear on guidance and risks associated with prenatal alcohol use and that they used this platform to seek information and reassurance from peers.

Public health engagement in alcohol licensing in England and Scotland: the ExILEnS mixed-method, natural experiment evaluation.

Background: International systematic reviews suggest an association between alcohol availability and increased alcohol-related harms. Alcohol availability is regulated through separate locally administered licensing systems in England and Scotland, in which local public health teams have a statutory role. The system in Scotland includes a public health objective for licensing. Public health teams engage to varying degrees in licensing matters but no previous study has sought to objectively characterise and measure their activity, examine their effectiveness, or compare practices between Scotland and England. Aim: To critically assess the impact and mechanisms of impact of public health team engagement in alcohol premises licensing on alcohol-related harms in England and Scotland. Methods: We recruited 39 diverse public health teams in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12). Public health teams more active in licensing were recruited first and then matched to lower-activity public health teams. Using structured interviews (n = 66), documentation analysis, and expert consultation, we developed and applied the Public Health Engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) measure to quantify six-monthly activity levels from 2012 to 2019. Time series of PHIAL scores, and health and crime outcomes for each area, were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models to assess correlations between outcome and exposure, with 18-month average PHIAL score as the primary exposure metric. In-depth interviews (n = 53) and a workshop (n = 10) explored public health team approaches and potential mechanisms of impact of alcohol availability interventions with public health team members and licensing stakeholders (local authority licensing officers, managers and lawyers/clerks, police staff with a licensing remit, local elected representatives). Findings: Nineteen public health team activity types were assessed in six categories: (1) staffing; (2) reviewing and (3) responding to licence applications; (4) data usage; (5) influencing licensing stakeholders/policy; and (6) public involvement. Usage and intensity of activities and overall approaches varied within and between areas over time, including between Scotland and England. The latter variation could be explained by legal, structural and philosophical differences, including Scotland's public health objective. This objective was felt to legitimise public health considerations and the use of public health data within licensing. Quantitative analysis showed no clear evidence of association between level of public health team activity and the health or crime outcomes examined, using the primary exposure or other metrics (neither change in, nor cumulative, PHIAL scores). Qualitative data suggested that public health team input was valued by many licensing stakeholders, and that alcohol availability may lead to harms by affecting the accessibility, visibility and norms of alcohol consumption, but that the licensing systems have limited power to act in the interests of public health. Conclusions: This study provides no evidence that public health team engagement in local licensing matters was associated with measurable downstream reductions in crime or health harms, in the short term, or over a 7-year follow-up period. The extensive qualitative data suggest that public health team engagement is valued and appears to be slowly reorienting the licensing system to better address health (and other) harms, especially in Scotland, but this will take time. A rise in home drinking, alcohol deliveries, and the inherent inability of the licensing system to reduce - or in the case of online sales, to contain - availability, may explain the null findings and will continue to limit the potential of these licensing systems to address alcohol-related harms. Future work: Further analysis could consider the relative success of different public health team approaches in terms of changing alcohol availability and retailing. A key gap relates to the nature and impact of online availability on alcohol consumption, harms and inequalities, alongside development and study of relevant policy options. A national approach to licensing data and oversight would greatly facilitate future studies and public health input to licensing. Limitations: Our interview data and therefore PHIAL scores may be limited by recall bias where documentary evidence of public health activity was not available, and by possible variability in grading of such activity, though steps were taken to minimise both. The analyses would have benefited from additional data on licensing policies and environmental changes that might have affected availability or harms in the study areas. Study registration: The study was registered with the Research Registry (researchregistry6162) on 26 October 2020. The study protocol was published in BMC Medical Research Methodology on 6 November 2018. Funding: This synopsis presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as award number 15/129/11.

Research finds that when alcohol is more easily available, because more places sell alcohol or have longer opening hours, people tend to drink more and harms tend to increase. In England and Scotland, 'Licensing Committees' in local governments have power over which venues are given a licence to sell alcohol legally. They make decisions based on local policy and on licensing goals set out in law. Licensing laws are slightly different in both nations, and health representatives are often involved in trying to influence local licensing decisions and policies, to reduce alcohol-related harms. We aimed to find out what public health teams have done to influence alcohol licensing and whether their actions have affected alcohol-related harms. We recruited 39 public health teams (Scotland: 12; England: 27) and measured how active they were on licensing matters. We gathered detailed information (from interviews and papers) about their actions from 2012 to 2019, and asked them and others involved in licensing (including police, and local authority licensing teams and lawyers) about how their efforts might make a difference to harms. We gathered local data on alcohol-related health harms and crimes during 2009­19. We analysed whether any changes in these harms were related to the level of public health team activity, and explored differences between Scotland and England. Public health teams across Scotland and England took varied approaches to engaging in alcohol licensing, and their work was often welcomed by others working in the licensing system. However, we found no clear relationship between the level of licensing-related activity that public health teams engaged in and the levels of alcohol-related health harms or crime. This may be because their actions make only a modest difference to licensing decisions, or because it may take longer than the study period for them to have a sizeable impact. Reducing alcohol-related harms through licensing may require strengthening national licensing laws and the powers of public health teams, including by addressing online sales and home deliveries.

Measuring How Public Health Stakeholders Seek to Influence Alcohol Premises Licensing in England and Scotland: The Public Health Engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) Measure.

OBJECTIVE: In the United Kingdom, some public health teams (PHTs) routinely engage with local alcohol premises licensing systems, through which licenses to sell alcohol are granted. We aimed to categorize PHT efforts and to develop and apply a measure of their efforts over time. METHOD: Preliminary categories of PHT activity were developed based on prior literature and were used to guide data collection with PHTs in 39 local government areas (27 in England; 12 in Scotland), sampled purposively. Relevant activity from April 2012 to March 2019 was identified through structured interviews (N = 62), documentation analysis, and follow-up checks, and a grading system was developed. The measure was refined based on expert consultation and used to grade relevant PHT activity for the 39 areas in 6-month periods. RESULTS: The Public Health engagement In Alcohol Licensing (PHIAL) Measure includes 19 activities in six categories: (a) staffing; (b) reviewing license applications; (c) responding to license applications; (d) data usage; (e) influencing licensing stakeholders or policy; and (f) public involvement. PHIAL scores for each area demonstrate fluctuation in type and level of activity between and within areas over time. Participating PHTs in Scotland were more active on average, particularly on senior leadership, policy development, and working with the public. In England, activity to influence license applications before decision was more common, and a clear increase in activity is apparent from 2014 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The novel PHIAL Measure successfully assessed diverse and fluctuating PHT engagement in alcohol licensing systems over time and will have practice, policy, and research applications.

Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

Impact of public health team engagement in alcohol licensing on health and crime outcomes in England and Scotland: A comparative timeseries study between 2012 and 2019.

Background: Public health teams (PHTs) in England and Scotland engage to varying degrees in local alcohol licensing systems to try to reduce alcohol-related harms. No previous quantitative evidence is available on the effectiveness of this engagement. We aimed to quantify the effects of PHT engagement in alcohol licensing on selected health and crime outcomes. Methods: 39 PHTs in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12) were recruited (of 40 contacted) for diversity in licensing engagement level and region, with higher activity areas matched to lower activity areas. Each PHT's engagement in licensing for each 6 month period from April 2012 to March 2019 was quantified using a new measure (PHIAL) developed using structured interviews, documentary analyses, and expert consultation. Outcomes examined were ambulance callouts, alcohol-related hospital admissions, alcohol-related and alcohol-specific mortality and violent, sexual and public order offences. Timeseries were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models. Correlations were assessed between each outcome and 18-month average PHIAL score (primary metric), cumulative PHIAL scores and change in PHIAL scores. Additionally, 6-month lagged correlations were also assessed. Findings: There was no clear evidence of any associations between the primary exposure metric and the public health or crime outcomes examined, nor between cumulative PHIAL scores or change in PHIAL score and any outcomes. There were no significant associations in England or Scotland when analysed separately or between outcomes and lagged exposure metrics. Interpretation: There is no clear evidence that allocating PHT resources to engaging in alcohol licensing is associated with downstream reductions in alcohol-related health harms or crimes, in the short term or over a seven year follow-up period. Such engagement likely has benefits in shaping the licensing system to take account of health issues longer term, but as current systems cannot reduce alcohol availability or contain online sales, their potential benefits are somewhat constrained. Funding: The ExILEnS project is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (project number 15/129/11). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Given the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision-making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework. DESIGN: Three natural experiments. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Three English local areas of 1000-15 000 people each. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: The case study interventions were (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). Trends in outcomes were compared with synthetic counterfactuals created using Bayesian structural time-series. MEASUREMENTS: Time-series data were obtained on emergency department admissions, ambulance call-outs and alcohol-related crime at the Lower or Middle Super Output geographical aggregation level. FINDINGS: Closure of the nightclub led to temporary 4-month reductions in antisocial behaviour (-18%; 95% credible interval - 37%, -4%), with no change in other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub did not lead to measurable changes in outcomes. The new licensing guidance led to small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (nine of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with an increase in domestic violence of two incidents per month. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be evaluated using a causal inference framework. Local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing may have a positive impact on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area.

Forecasting the 2021 local burden of population alcohol-related harms using Bayesian structural time-series.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Harmful alcohol use places a significant burden on health services. Sophisticated nowcasting and forecasting methods could support service planning, but their use in public health has been limited. We aimed to use a novel analysis framework, combined with routine public health data, to improve now- and forecasting of alcohol-related harms. DESIGN: We used Bayesian structural time-series models to forecast alcohol-related hospital admissions for 2020/21 (from 2015 to 2016). SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: We developed separate models for each English lower-tier local authority. MEASUREMENTS: Our primary outcome was alcohol-related hospital admissions. Model covariates were population size and age-structure. FINDINGS: Nowcasting validation indicated adequate accuracy, with 5-year nowcasts underestimating admissions by 2.2% nationally and 3.3% locally, on average. Forecasts indicated a 3.3% increase in national admissions in 2020/21, corresponding to a 0.2% reduction in the crude rate of new admissions, due to population size changes. Locally, the largest increases were forecast in urban, industrial and coastal areas and the largest decreases in university towns and ethnically diverse areas. CONCLUSIONS: In 2020/21, alcohol-related hospital admissions are expected to increase in urban and coastal areas and decrease in areas associated with inward migration of younger people, including university towns and areas with greater ethnic diversity. Bayesian structural time-series models enable investigation of the future impacts of alcohol-related harms in population subgroups and could improve service planning and the evaluation of natural experiments on the impact of interventions to reduce the societal impacts of alcohol.

Objective Measures of Prenatal Alcohol Exposure: A Systematic Review.

CONTEXT: Objective measurement of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) is essential for identifying children at risk for adverse outcomes, including fetal alcohol spectrum disorders. Biomarkers have been advocated for use in universal screening programs, but their validity has not been comprehensively evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the validity of objective measures of PAE. DATA SOURCES: Thirteen electronic databases and supplementary sources were searched for studies published between January 1990 and October 2015. STUDY SELECTION: Eligible studies were those that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of objective measures of PAE. DATA EXTRACTION: Three reviewers independently verified study inclusion, quality assessments, and extracted data. RESULTS: Twelve studies met inclusion criteria. Test performance varied widely across studies of maternal blood (4 studies; sensitivity 0%-100%, specificity 79%-100%), maternal hair (2 studies; sensitivity 19%-87%, specificity 56%-86%) maternal urine (2 studies; sensitivity 5%-15%, specificity 97%-100%), and biomarker test batteries (3 studies; sensitivity 22%-50%, specificity 56%-97%). Tests of the total concentration of 4 fatty acid ethyl esters (in meconium: 2 studies; in placenta: 1 study) demonstrated high sensitivity (82%-100%); however, specificity was variable (13%-98%). LIMITATIONS: Risk of bias was high due to self-report reference standards and selective outcome reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence is insufficient to support the use of objective measures of prenatal alcohol exposure in practice. Biomarkers in meconium and placenta tissue may be the most promising candidates for further large-scale population-based research.