Spatial analysis of the incidence of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya and socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

In 2015-2016, simultaneous circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) was reported. We conducted an ecological study to analyse the spatial distribution of dengue, Zika and chikungunya cases and to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with individual and combined disease incidence in 2015-2016. We then constructed thematic maps and analysed the bivariate global Moran indices. Classical and spatial models were used. A distinct spatial distribution pattern for dengue, Zika and chikungunya was identified in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The bivariate global Moran indices (P < 0.05) revealed negative spatial correlations between rates of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and combined arboviruses incidence and social development index and mean income. The regression models (P < 0.05) identified a negative relationship between mean income and each of these rates and between sewage and Zika incidence rates, as well as a positive relationship between urban areas and chikungunya incidence rates. In our study, spatial analysis techniques helped to identify high-risk and social determinants at the local level for the three arboviruses. Our findings may aid in backing effective interventions for the prevention and control of epidemics of these diseases.

Fatores associados ao óbito em casos confirmados de COVID-19 no estado do Rio de Janeiro.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 can occur asymptomatically, as influenza-like illness, or as more severe forms, which characterize severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Its mortality rate is higher in individuals over 80 years of age and in people with comorbidities, so these constitute the risk group for severe forms of the disease. We analyzed the factors associated with death in confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro. This cross-sectional study evaluated the association between individual demographic, clinical, and epidemiological variables and the outcome (death) using data from the Unified Health System information systems. METHODS: We used the extreme boosting gradient (XGBoost) model to analyze the data, which uses decision trees weighted by the estimation difficulty. To evaluate the relevance of each independent variable, we used the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric. From the probabilities generated by the XGBoost model, we transformed the data to the logarithm of odds to estimate the odds ratio for each independent variable. RESULTS: This study showed that older individuals of black race/skin color with heart disease or diabetes who had dyspnea or fever were more likely to die. CONCLUSIONS: The early identification of patients who may progress to a more severe form of the disease can help improve the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and is thus essential to reduce the lethality of the disease.

Association between socio-environmental factors, coverage by family health teams, and rainfall in the spatial distribution of Zika virus infection in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection caused outbreak in Brazil, in 2015 and 2016. Disorganized urban growth, facilitates the concentration of numerous susceptible and infected individuals. It is useful to understand the mechanisms that can favor the increase in ZIKV incidence, such as areas with wide socioeconomic and environmental diversity. Therefore, the study analyzed the spatial distribution of ZIKV in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016, and associations between the incidence per 1000 inhabitants and socio-environmental factors. METHODS: The census tracts were used as the analytical units reported ZIKV cases among the city's inhabitants. Local Empirical Bayesian method was used to control the incidence rates' instability effect. The spatial autocorrelation was verified with Moran's Index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Spearman correlation matrix was used to indicate possible collinearity. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SAR), and Spatial Error Model (CAR) were used to analyze the relationship between ZIKV and socio-environmental factors. RESULTS: The SAR model exhibited the best parameters: R2 = 0.44, Log-likelihood = - 7482, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 14,980. In this model, mean income between 1 and 2 minimum wages was possible risk factors for Zika occurrence in the localities. Household conditions related to adequate water supply and the existence of public sewage disposal were associated with lower ZIKV cumulative incidence, suggesting possible protective factors against the occurrence of ZIKV in the localities. The presence of the Family Health Strategy in the census tracts was positively associated with the ZIKV cumulative incidence. However, the results show that mean income less than 1 minimum wage were negatively associated with higher ZIKV cumulative incidence. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate the importance of socio-environmental variables in the dynamics of ZIKV transmission and the relevance for the development of control strategies.

Spatial analysis of tuberculosis cure in primary care in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) presents a high burden of disease and is considered a global emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO), as the leading cause of death from infectious disease in adults. TB incidence is related directly to access to health services and socioeconomic determinants and inequality. Providing primary care settings can lead to improved access, shorter waiting times for patients, and enhanced TB case detection. The article aims to identify the spatial and temporal risk areas for TB and the relationship between TB cure and primary healthcare coverage from 2012 to 2014 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. All cases of TB reported to the Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN) from 2012 to 2014 were included. Socioeconomic variables from the 2010 Brazilian national census were also added. Socioeconomic variables were selected from multivariate analysis using principal factors analysis. Spatial association was verified with generalized additive model (GAM). It was possible to identify areas at higher risk of failure to cure TB. RESULTS: TB rates showed strong positive spatial autocorrelation. TB cure rate varied according to schooling (individuals with complete secondary schooling had higher cure rates than illiterate individuals; OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.30-2.29), alcohol consumption (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.35-0.64), contact investigation (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.56-2.57), positive HIV serology (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23-0.42), and census tracts with higher elderly rates (OR 9.39, 95% CI 1.03-85.26). Individuals who had been covered by primary healthcare (PHC) for 35 to 41 months had 1.64 higher odds of cure, compared to those with no PHC coverage (95% CI 1.07-2.51). CONCLUSION: A comprehensive risk map was developed, allowing public health interventions. Spatial analysis allowed identifying areas with lower odds of TB cure in the city of Rio de Janeiro. TB cure was associated statistically with time of coverage by primary healthcare. TB cure rate also varied according to sociodemographic factors like schooling, alcohol abuse, and population density. This methodology can be generalized to other areas and/or other public health problems. HIGHLIGHTS: We studied standardized municipal TB cure rates in an area of social inequality in Brazil. TB rates showed strong positive spatial autocorrelation. Higher rates were associated with population density and socioeconomic conditions. Illiterate individuals were less likely to achieve TB cure. TB cure was less likely in individuals with HIV and alcohol abuse. TB cure was greater in areas with high primary healthcare coverage.

Use of antibiotics during pregnancy is associated with infection in children at four years of age in Portugal.

AIM: To assess the association between taking antibiotics in pregnancy and the occurrence of infections in children at four years of age. METHODS: We studied children who participated in the follow-up of the birth cohort Generation XXI, Porto-Portugal, at the age of four years. We evaluated the associations between the use of antibiotics by the mother at any time in pregnancy with the occurrence of infections. Data were analysed using logistic regression, controlling for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: We studied 7459 children (50.7% boys). The use of antibiotics at any stage of pregnancy, and not only in the third trimester, was associated with the occurrence of tonsillitis at four years, even after controlling for potential confounders (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.38). Other infections did not show association. CONCLUSION: Maternal use of antibiotics during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of tonsillitis reported at four years of age. Antibiotics could favour the potential transmission of an unfavourable microbiome from mother to child.

[Microcephaly and central nervous system findings associated with congenital Zika virus and other infectious etiologies in the state of Rio de Janeiro: crosssectional study, 2015 a 2017Microcefalia y alteraciones del sistema nervioso central relacionadas con la infección congénita por el virus del Zika y otras etiologías infecciosas en el Estado de Río de Janeiro: estudio transversal, 2015-2017]. / Microcefalia e alterações do sistema nervoso central relacionadas à infecção congênita pelo vírus Zika e outras etiologias infecciosas no estado do Rio de Janeiro: estudo transversal, 2015 a 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical and epidemiological profile of cases with confirmed microcephaly or central nervous system (CNS) findings associated with congenital Zika virus infection and other infectious etiologies in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from November 2015 to July 2017. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was performed with 298 cases (as defined by the Ministry of Health) communicated to the Rio de Janeiro State Department of Health in the study period. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical, radiological, and laboratory variables were assessed. Descriptive bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between specific factors and death outcome. RESULTS: The median age of mothers was 24 years; 30.9% reported fever and 64.8% reported a rash during pregnancy. The median head circumference at birth was 29 cm, and median birth weight was 2 635 g. An etiological diagnosis of congenital Zika was made in 46.0%, whereas 13.8% were diagnosed with syphilis, toxoplasmosis, rubella, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex infections (STORCH), with predominance of syphilis, and 40.3% had an unspecified infectious agent. CNS findings other than microcephaly were observed in 88.3%, especially intracranial calcifications, ventriculomegaly, and brain atrophy. Overall lethality was 7.0% - 19.0% in laboratory confirmed Zika cases and 22.2% in toxoplasmosis cases. Multivariable analysis revealed birth weight as the main predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the Zika epidemic, 13.8% of the studied cases were diagnosed with STORCH. The lethality and high frequency of neurological findings beyond microcephaly reflect severe infection, with impact on families and health care system.

OBJETIVO: Describir el perfil clínico-epidemiológico de los casos confirmados de microcefalia y de alteraciones del sistema nervioso central (SNC) relacionados con la infección congénita por el virus del Zika y otras etiologías infecciosas en el Estado de Río de Janeiro en el período comprendido entre noviembre del 2015 y julio del 2017. MÉTODOS: Se realizó un estudio transversal de 298 casos (según la definición del Ministerio de Salud) notificados a la Secretaría de Estado de Salud de Río de Janeiro en el período objeto de estudio. Se analizaron variables demográficas, epidemiológicas, clínicas, radiológicas y de laboratorio, con un análisis estadístico descriptivo bivariado y de regresión logística múltiple para estudio de los factores relacionados con la defunción. RESULTADOS: La edad mediana de las madres fue de 24 años; un 30,9% informó fiebre y un 64,8%, exantema durante la gestación. La mediana del perímetro cefálico al nacer fue de 29 cm y la del peso, de 2635 g. El diagnóstico etiológico fue de infección congénita por el virus del Zika en un 46,0%; sífilis, toxoplasmosis, rubéola, infección por citomegalovirus e infección por el virus del herpes simple (STORCH) en un 13,8%, con predominio de sífilis; e infección por un agente infeccioso no definido en un 40,3%. Se describieron alteraciones del SNC diferentes de microcefalia en un 88,3%, con predominio de calcificaciones cerebrales, ventriculomegalia y atrofia cerebral. La letalidad total alcanzó 7,0%; se confirmaron en el laboratorio 19,0% de los casos de infección por el virus del Zika y 22,2% de los casos de toxoplasmosis. En el análisis de regresión logística múltiple, el peso al nacer fue el principal pronóstico de defunción. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de la epidemia de la infección por el virus del Zika, 13,8% de los casos fueron causados por STORCH. La letalidad y la elevada presencia de malformaciones neurológicas, además de microcefalia, muestran la gravedad de la infección y sus repercusiones para las familias y para el sistema de salud.

Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020-2021. / Cadastro na Atenção Primária e mortalidade por COVID-19: coorte de diabéticos de cinco regiões administrativas de saúde do município do Rio de Janeiro, 2020­2021.

OBJECTIVE: The present study carried out an analysis of survival according to the status of registration with Primary Health Care (PHC) and of factors associated with death from COVID-19, in cases residing in Programmatic Area 3.1 (PA3.1) with a diagnosis of diabetes (in the notification form or in the electronic medical record), of the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, in 2020-2021. METHODS: A probabilistic linkage of databases was performed based on information on cases notified as COVID-19 and data from the electronic medical records of people living with diabetes. A survival analysis was carried out, using the Cox regression model stratified by age group and adjusted for confounding variables. RESULTS: Individuals registered with the PHC of PA3.1 had almost twice the risk of death from COVID-19 (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj]=1.91) when compared to those unregistered. This association was stronger in individuals aged 18 to 59 years registered with the PHC (HRadj=2.82) than in individuals aged 60 years or over (HRadj=1.56). CONCLUSION: Surveillance strategies for identifying and adequately monitoring higher-risk groups, among individuals living with diabetes, within the scope of Primary Health Care, can contribute to reducing mortality from COVID-19.

OBJETIVO: O presente estudo realizou uma análise de sobrevivência segundo situação de cadastro na Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) e de fatores associados ao óbito por COVID-19, nos casos residentes da Área Programática 3.1 (AP3.1) com diagnóstico de diabetes (na ficha de notificação ou no prontuário eletrônico) do município do Rio de Janeiro, em 2020­2021. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado relacionamento probabilístico de bases de dados com base nas informações dos casos notificados por COVID-19 e dos dados de prontuário eletrônico de pessoas que vivem com diabetes. Conduziu-se uma análise de sobrevivência, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão de Cox estratificado por faixa etária e ajustando-se por variáveis confundidoras. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se que indivíduos cadastrados na APS da AP3.1 possuíam risco quase duas vezes maior de óbito por COVID-19 (hazard ratio ajustada ­ HRaj=1,91) quando comparados aos não cadastrados na APS da AP3.1. Essa associação foi mais forte naqueles com 18 a 59 anos, cadastrados na APS (HRaj=2,82), do que nos de 60 anos ou mais (HRaj=1,56). CONCLUSÃO: Estratégias de vigilância para a identificação e acompanhamento adequado de grupos de maior risco de mortalidade, dentre indivíduos que vivem com DM, no âmbito da APS podem contribuir para a redução da mortalidade em decorrência da COVID-19.

Spatial-temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused impact on public health worldwide. Brazil gained prominence during the pandemic due to the magnitude of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 and its associations with social determinants in Brazilian municipalities and epidemiological week. We modeled incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates using spatial-temporal Bayesian model. "Bolsa Família Programme" (BOLSAFAM) and "proportional mortality ratio" (PMR) were inversely associated with the standardized incidence ratio (SIR), while "health insurance coverage" (HEALTHINSUR) and "Gini index" were directly associated with the SIR. BOLSAFAM and PMR were inversely associated with the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized case fatality ratio (SCFR). The highest proportion of excess risk for SIR and the SMR started in the North, expanding to the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions. The highest proportion of excess risk for the SCFR outcome was observed in some municipalities in the North region and in the other Brazilian regions. The COVID-19 incidence and mortality in municipalities that most benefited from the cash transfer programme and with better social development decreased. The municipalities with a higher proportion of non-whites had a higher risk of becoming ill and dying from the disease.

The effect of BCG vaccination on infection and antibody levels against SARS-CoV-2-The results of ProBCG: a multicenter randomized clinical trial in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Evatuate if Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine could be used as a tool against SARS-CoV-2 based on the concept of trained immunity. METHODS: A multicenter, double-blinded, randomized clinical trial recruited health care workers (HCWs) in Brazil. The incidence rates of COVID-19, clinical manifestations, absenteeism, and adverse events among HCWs receiving BCG vaccine (Moreau or Moscow strains) or placebo were compared. BCG vaccine-mediated immune response before and after implementing specific vaccines for COVID-19 (CoronaVac or COVISHIELD) was analyzed. Cox proportional hazard and linear mixed effect modeling were used. RESULTS: A total of 264 volunteers were included for analysis (BCG = 134 and placebo = 130). The placebo group presented a COVID-19 cumulative incidence of 0.75% vs 0.52% of BCG. The Moreau strain also presented a higher incidence rate (1.60% × 0.22%). BCG did not show a protective hazard ratio against COVID-19. In addition, the log (immunoglobulin G) level against SARS-CoV-2 presented a higher increase in the BCG group, whether or not participants had COVID-19, but also without statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that BCG has a tendency of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and higher immunoglobulin G levels than placebo. The clinical trial was registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ (NCT04659941).

High Levels of NfL, GFAP, TAU, and UCH-L1 as Potential Predictor Biomarkers of Severity and Lethality in Acute COVID-19.

Few studies showed that neurofilament light chain (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), total tubulin-associated unit (TAU), and ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) may be related to neurological manifestations and severity during and after SARS-CoV-2 infection. The objective of this work was to investigate the relationship among nervous system biomarkers (NfL, TAU, GFAP, and UCH-L1), biochemical parameters, and viral loads with heterogeneous outcomes in a cohort of severe COVID-19 patients admitted in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a university hospital. For that, 108 subjects were recruited within the first 5 days at ICU. In parallel, 16 mild COVID-19 patients were enrolled. Severe COVID-19 group was divided between "deceased" and "survivor." All subjects were positive for SARS-CoV-2 detection. NfL, total TAU, GFAP, and UCH-L1 quantification in plasma was performed using SIMOA SR-X platform. Of 108 severe patients, 36 (33.33%) presented neurological manifestation and 41 (37.96%) died. All four biomarkers - GFAP, NfL, TAU, and UCH-L1 - were significantly higher among deceased patients in comparison to survivors (p < 0.05). Analyzing biochemical biomarkers, higher Peak Serum Ferritin, D-Dimer Peak, Gamma-glutamyltransferase, and C-Reactive Protein levels were related to death (p < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, GFAP, NfL, TAU, UCH-L1, and Peak Serum Ferritin levels were correlated to death. Regarding SARS-CoV-2 viral load, no statistical difference was observed for any group. Thus, Ferritin, NFL, GFAP, TAU, and UCH-L1 are early biomarkers of severity and lethality of SARS-COV-2 infection and may be important tools for therapeutic decision-making in the acute phase of disease.

Clinical Profile and Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Comparison between the First and Second Pandemic Waves.

Since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Brazil has become one of the countries most affected by this disease. A year into the pandemic, a second wave of COVID-19 emerged, with a rapid spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage of concern. Several vaccines have been granted emergency-use authorization, leading to a decrease in mortality and severe cases in many countries. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raises the alert for potential new waves of transmission and an increase in pathogenicity. We compared the demographic and clinical data of critically ill patients infected with COVID-19 hospitalized in Rio de Janeiro during the first and second waves between July 2020 and October 2021. In total, 106 participants were included in this study; among them, 88% had at least one comorbidity, and 37% developed severe disease. Disease severity was associated with older age, pre-existing neurological comorbidities, higher viral load, and dyspnea. Laboratory biomarkers related to white blood cells, coagulation, cellular injury, inflammation, renal, and liver injuries were significantly associated with severe COVID-19. During the second wave of the pandemic, the necessity of invasive respiratory support was higher, and more individuals with COVID-19 developed acute hepatitis, suggesting that the progression of the second wave resulted in an increase in severe cases. These results can contribute to understanding the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and may be helpful in predicting disease severity, which is a pivotal for guiding clinical care, improving patient outcomes, and defining public policies.

Overlap between dengue, Zika and chikungunya hotspots in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

BACKGROUND: Arboviruses represent a threat to global public health. In the Americas, the dengue fever is endemic. This situation worsens with the introduction of emerging, Zika fever and chikungunya fever, causing epidemics in several countries within the last decade. Hotspot analysis contributes to understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics in the context of co-circulation of these three arboviral diseases, which have the same vector: Aedes aegypti. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial distribution and agreement between the hotspots of the historical series of reported dengue cases from 2000 to 2014 and the Zika, chikungunya and dengue cases hotspots from 2015 to 2019 in the city of Rio de Janeiro. METHODS: To identify hotspots, Gi* statistics were calculated for the annual incidence rates of reported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya by neighborhood. Kendall's W statistic was used to analyze the agreement between diseases hotspots. RESULTS: There was no agreement between the hotspots of the dengue fever historical series (2000-2014) and those of the emerging Zika fever and chikungunya fever (2015-2019). However, there was agreement between hotspots of the three arboviral diseases between 2015 and 2019. CONCLUSION: The results of this study show the existence of persistent hotspots that need to be prioritized in public policies for the prevention and control of these diseases. The techniques used with data from epidemiological surveillance services can help in better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases wherever they circulate in the world.

[Identification of risk areas and factors associated with the 2019 measles epidemic in the State of São Paulo, Brazil]. / Identificação de áreas de risco e fatores associados à epidemia de sarampo de 2019 no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil.

This study aimed to analyze the occurrence of clusters and factors associated with the resurgence of measles cases from the largest epidemic of the post-elimination period in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2019. Sociosanitary and care factors were analyzed by zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect. The SCAN statistic was used to analyze the occurrence of case clusters. Clusters of high-risk cases were identified in municipalities that make up the intermediate region of São Paulo. In the ZIP model, the following variables were observed as risk factors at the municipal level: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR =0 1.39; 95%CrI: 1.27-1.53), inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 36.67; 95%CrI: 26.36-51.15), unemployment in people over 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.10; 95%CrI: 1.08-1.12), and non-existent street lighting (adjusted RR = 1.05; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.05). In the ZIP models with structured and unstructured spatial effect, the following variables were observed as risk factors: household heads under 18 years old (adjusted RR = 1.36; 95%CrI: 1.04-1.90) and inequality in income distribution (adjusted RR = 3.12; 95%CrI: 1.02-9.48). In both models, the coverage of health agents was presented as a protective factor. The findings reinforce the importance of intensifying measles surveillance actions articulated to the Family Health Strategy, especially in areas with greater social vulnerability, to ensure equitable and satisfactory vaccination coverage and reduce the risk of reemergence of the disease.

O objetivo foi analisar a ocorrência de clusters e fatores associados ao ressurgimento de casos de sarampo da maior epidemia do período pós-eliminação, ocorrida no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, em 2019. Fatores sociossanitários e assistenciais foram analisados por modelos de Poisson inflacionado de zero (ZIP) e ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado. A estatística de varredura SCAN foi usada para analisar a ocorrência de clusters de casos. Foram identificados clusters de casos de alto risco em municípios que compõem a região intermediária de São Paulo. No modelo ZIP, foram observadas como fatores de risco no nível municipal as variáveis chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdade na distribuição de renda (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desocupação em maiores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) e iluminação pública inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). Nos modelos ZIP com efeito espacial estruturado e não estruturado, foram identificados como fatores de risco os indicadores chefes de domicílio menores de 18 anos (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) e desigualdade na distribuição dos rendimentos do trabalho (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02-9,48). Em ambos os modelos, a cobertura de agentes de saúde se apresentou como fator de proteção. Os achados reforçam a importância de intensificar as ações de vigilância de sarampo articuladas à Estratégia Saúde da Família, especialmente em áreas de maior vulnerabilidade social, para garantir coberturas vacinais equânimes e satisfatórias e reduzir o risco de reemergência da doença.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la ocurrencia de clusters y sus factores asociados al resurgimiento de los casos de sarampión teniendo por base la mayor epidemia del período poserradicación que tuvo lugar en el Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, en 2019. Los factores sociosanitarios y asistenciales se analizaron mediante modelos de Poisson zero inflated (ZIP) y ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado. La estadística de exploración SCAN se utilizó para analizar la ocurrencia de clusters de casos. Se identificaron clusters de casos de alto riesgo en municipios que componen la Región Intermedia de São Paulo. En el modelo ZIP se observaron como factores de riesgo a nivel municipal las variables jefes de hogar menores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,39; ICr95%: 1,27-1,53), desigualdad en la distribución de renta (RR ajustado = 36,67; ICr95%: 26,36-51,15), desempleo en mayores de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,10; ICr95%: 1,08-1,12) y alumbrado público inexistente (RR ajustado = 1,05; ICr95%: 1,04-1,05). En los modelos ZIP con efecto espacial estructurado y no estructurado, se identificaron como factores de riesgo los indicadores jefe de hogar menor de 18 años (RR ajustado = 1,36; ICr95%: 1,04-1,90) y la desigualdad en la distribución de los ingresos de trabajo (RR ajustado = 3,12; ICr95%: 1,02- 9,48). En ambos modelos, la cobertura de los agentes de salud fue un factor protector. Los hallazgos evidencian la importancia de intensificar las acciones de vigilancia del sarampión vinculadas a la Estrategia de Salud Familiar, especialmente en las zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad social, para garantizar una cobertura de la vacunación de manera equitativa y satisfactoria, además de reducir el riesgo de reemergencia de la enfermedad.

Measles resurgence in Brazil: analysis of the 2019 epidemic in the state of São Paulo.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological profile of cases and the pattern of spatial diffusion of the largest measles epidemic in Brazil that occurred in the post-elimination period in the state of São Paulo. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on confirmed measles cases in 2019. Bivariate analysis was performed for socioeconomic, clinical, and epidemiological variables, according to prior vaccination and hospitalization, combined with an analysis of spatial diffusion of cases using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. RESULTS: Of the 15,598 confirmed cases, 2,039 were hospitalized and 17 progressed to death. The epidemic peak occurred in epidemiological week 33, after confirmation of the first case, in the epidemiological week 6. Most cases were male (52.1%), aged between 18 and 29 years (38.7%), identified as whites (70%). Young adults (39.7%) and children under five years (32.8%) were the most affected age groups. A higher proportion of previous vaccination was observed in whites as compared to Blacks, browns, yellows and indigenous people (p < 0.001), as well as in the most educated group compared to the other categories (p < 0.001). The risk of hospitalization was higher in children than in the older age group (RI = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.66-2.88), as well as in the unvaccinated than in the vaccinated (RI = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.45-1.75). The pattern of diffusion by contiguity combined with diffusion by relocation followed the urban hierarchy of the main cities' regions of influence. CONCLUSION: In addition to routine vaccination in children, the findings indicate the need for immunization campaigns for young adults. In addition, studies that seek to investigate the occurrence of clusters of vulnerable populations, prone to lower vaccination coverage, are essential to broaden the understanding of the dynamics of transmission and, thus, reorienting control strategies that ensure disease elimination.

Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.

In Brazil, vaccination has always cut across party political and ideological lines, which has delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunization of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination along with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between 10 March 2020 and 27 October 2021. We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 31 657 deaths could have been avoided. In addition, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.

SARS due to COVID-19: Predictors of death and profile of adult patients in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 2020.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to describe the profile of adult patients and analyze the predictors of death from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Knowledge of the predictors of death by COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro, a state with one of the highest mortality rates in Brazil, is essential to improve health care for these patients. METHODS: Data from the Information System for Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza and the Mortality Information System were used. A binary logistic regression model evaluated the outcome of death, sociodemographic data, and clinical-epidemiological and health care covariates. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistics were performed with the R program, version 4.0.0. RESULTS: Overall, 51,383 cases of SARS due to COVID-19 among adults were reported in the state between March 5 and December 2, 2020. Mortality was high (40.5%). The adjusted final model presented the following predictors of death in SARS patients due to COVID-19: male sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.17); age (OR = 5.35, 95%CI, 4.88-5.88; ≥75 years); oxygen saturation <95% (OR = 1.48, 95%CI, 1.37-1.59), respiratory distress (OR = 1.31, 95%CI, 1.21-1.41) and dyspnoea (OR = 1.25, 95%CI, 1.15-1.36), the presence of at least one risk factor/comorbidity (OR = 1.32, 95%CI, 1.23-1.42), chronic kidney disease (OR = 1.94, 95%CI, 1.69-2.23), immunosuppression (OR = 1.51, 95%CI, 1.26-1.81) or chronic neurological disease (OR = 1.36, 95%CI, 1.18-1.58), and ventilatory support, invasive (OR = 8.89, 95%CI, 8.08-9.79) or non-invasive (OR = 1.25, 95%CI, 1.15-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Factors associated with death were male sex, old age, oxygen saturation <95%, respiratory distress, dyspnoea, chronic kidney and neurological diseases, immunosuppression, and use of invasive or noninvasive ventilatory support. Identifying factors associated with disease progression can help the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and improve outcomes.

[Floods and leptospirosis in Brazilian municipalities from 2003 to 2013: use of data mining techniques]. / Inundações e leptospirose nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2013: utilização de técnicas de mineração de dados.

Leptospirosis is related to problems with environmental sanitation, and the incidence tends to increase during flood periods. Considering issues related to climate change, floods can be expected to increase. Floods do not affect populations homogeneously, and communities with worse socioeconomic conditions tend to be impacted more heavily. In order to determine whether the number of floods increases the incidence of leptospirosis and its relationship to contextual variables, the study used socioeconomic, environmental, and disease occurrence data at the municipal (county) level. Municipalities suffering problems with sewage disposal showed a higher risk of leptospirosis incidence. Total flooding since the municipality's declaration of flood emergency was an important risk marker for leptospirosis incidence. Regression tree modeling proved useful for estimating leptospirosis incidence in Brazil.

A leptospirose se relaciona a problemas de saneamento ambiental, com incremento de casos em períodos de inundações. Levando-se em consideração as questões relacionadas a mudanças climáticas, as inundações tendem a um aumento. As inundações não atingem as populações de maneira homogênea, em geral os menos favorecidos em termos socioeconômicos são os mais acometidos. Para saber se o número de inundações aumentaria a incidência de leptospirose e sua relação com as variáveis contextuais, utilizou-se dados socioeconômicos, ambientais e de ocorrência da doença no nível municipal. Os municípios que tinham problemas no esgotamento sanitário apresentaram maior risco para a ocorrência da leptospirose. O total de inundações adquirida a partir da decretação pela autoridade municipal constituiu um importante marcador de risco para a ocorrência de leptospirose. A modelagem de árvore de regressão mostrou-se útil para estimar a ocorrência de leptospirose no Brasil.

La leptospirosis se relaciona con problemas de saneamiento ambiental, así como con el incremento de casos en períodos de inundaciones. Teniendo en consideración las cuestiones relacionadas con el cambio climático, las inundaciones tienden a aumentar. Las inundaciones no afectan a las poblaciones de manera homogénea, en general, los menos favorecidos en términos socioeconómicos son los más afectados. Para saber si el número de inundaciones aumentaría la incidencia de leptospirosis, y su relación con variables contextuales, se utilizaron datos socioeconómicos, ambientales y de ocurrencia de la enfermedad en el nivel municipal. Los municipios que poseían problemas en el alcantarillado sanitario presentaron un mayor riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El total de inundaciones sufridas a partir de su reconocimiento oficial por parte de la autoridad municipal constituyó un importante marcador de riesgo para la ocurrencia de leptospirosis. El modelo de árbol de regresión se mostró útil para estimar la ocurrencia de leptospirosis en Brasil.

Zika virus in Brazil and worldwide: a narrative review.

Background: In the past 5 years, the Zika virus (ZIKV) has gone from being associated with mild infection to one of the most studied viruses worldwide. Between 2015 and 2016, the first reports of pregnant women with confirmed and/or suspected ZIKV infection described fetuses and newborns with severe congenital malformations, in particular microcephaly and central nervous system malformations, leading to a strong suspicion of its association with the virus. Despite all the knowledge rapidly acquired since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak, many questions are still to be answered and further studies on the infection and its consequences are required.Aim: To present the currently available evidence on the epidemiological and clinical aspects of ZIKV infection.Methods: Non-systematic review carried out in MEDLINE (PubMed), LILACS (VHL), Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane and CAPES Portal databases for the past five years using the search terms arboviruses, flavivirus, Zika and ZIKV.Results: The acute clinical of ZIKV infection in children seems very similar to that in adults, with fever (usully low), rash maculopapular and pruritus. Neurological complication associated with ZIKV reported in the literature include Guillain-Barré syndrome and meningoencephalitis. More recently, the term congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) has been adopted to describe a set of symptoms and signs in children whose mothers had ZIKV infection confirmed during pregnancy.Conclusions: More detailed knowledge of ZIKV infection in children allows the pediatrician to diagnose earlier, implement the correct treatment, monitor warnings signs for the most severe forms, and especially establish effective preventive measures.Abbreviations:: CDC, Centers for Disease Control; CZS, congenital Zika syndrome; DEET, N, N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide; GBS, Guillain-Barré syndrome; PRNT, plaque reduction neutralisation test; RNA, ribonucleic acid; RT-PCR, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction; STX, saxitoxin; ZIKV, Zika virus.

[Aedes aegypti larval indices and dengue incidence: an ecological study in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil]. / Índices larvais de Aedes aegypti e incidência de dengue: um estudo ecológico no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.

The simultaneous circulation of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya poses major challenges for Brazil. Due to climate changes and other associated factors, more than two billion people in the world may be exposed to these arbovirus infections, according to the World Health Organization. The principal strategy for Aedes aegypti control programs is based on the Infestation Index Rapid Survey for Ae. aegypti (LIRAa), a sample survey in which the Building Infestation Index (BII) is used to prioritize areas for intervention. This study analyzed the performance of LIRAa in terms of its sensitivity for predicting dengue epidemics in municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro in epidemic years. Incidence rates per municipality for the years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016, plus the BII in October of the previous years. Scatterplots were created, aimed at an exploratory analysis and graphic visualizations of the relationship between the above-mentioned variables, as well as analyses of the Spearman correlation between the BII and the Breteau Index for each year, aimed at estimating the quality of the LIRAa. Comparative analysis of the values for the BII and the respective incidence rates in the period only indicated significant correlation between these variables in 2011/2012 (rs = 0.479; p < 0.01). There was also a correlation between BII and Breteau Index. It is urgent to rethink the parameters established by the LIRAa methodology and invest in alternative methodologies in entomological and epidemiological surveillance that reliably measure transmission risk in the territory and thus design more effective strategies to control these arbovirus infections.

A circulação simultânea da dengue, Zika e chikungunya impõe desafios importantes para o Brasil, que em decorrência das mudanças climáticas e outros fatores associados, estas arboviroses podem expor mais de 2 bilhões de pessoas no mundo, segundo a Organização Mundial da Saúde. A principal estratégia dos programas de controle do Aedes aegypti baseia-se no Levantamento de Índice Rápido para o Ae. aegypti (LIRAa), um inquérito amostral no qual o Índice de Infestação Predial (IIP) obtido é utilizado para priorizar áreas de intervenção. Neste estudo, analisou-se o desempenho do LIRAa quanto à sua sensibilidade na previsão de epidemias de dengue em municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, em anos considerados epidêmicos. Foram obtidas as taxas de incidência (TI) por município nos anos de 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 e 2016, e os IIP de outubro dos anos anteriores. Foram elaborados diagramas de dispersão, visando à análise exploratória e à visualização gráfica da relação entre as referidas variáveis, assim como análises de correlação de Spearman entre o IIP e o Índice de Breteau (IB) de cada ano, a fim de estimar a qualidade do LIRAa. A análise comparativa dos valores dos IIP e as respectivas TI no período indicou correlação significativa entre estas variáveis apenas em 2011/2012 (rs = 0,479; p < 0,01). Adicionalmente, foi observada correlação entre os IIP e IB. É urgente repensar os parâmetros estabelecidos pela metodologia LIRAa e investir em metodologias alternativas de vigilância entomoepidemiológica, que mensurem de forma confiável o risco de transmissão no território e assim delinear estratégias mais efetivas para o controle dessas arboviroses.

La circulación simultánea del dengue, Zika y chikungunya impone desafíos importantes para Brasil, que, a consecuencia del cambio climático y otros factores asociados, pueden estar expuestas a estas arbovirosis más de 2 billones de personas en el mundo, según la Organización Mundial de la Salud. La principal estrategia de los programas de control del Aedes aegypti se basa en el Levantamento de Índice Rápido para el Ae. aegypti (LIRAa), una encuesta de muestreo en la que el Índice de Infestación de Edificios (IIP) obtenido es utilizado para priorizar áreas de intervención. En este estudio se analizó el desempeño del LIRAa, en cuanto a su sensibilidad en la previsión de epidemias de dengue en municipios del estado de Río de Janeiro, durante años considerados epidémicos. Se obtuvieron tasas de incidencia (TI) por municipio de los años de 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 y 2016, y los IIP de octubre de años anteriores. Se elaboraron diagramas de dispersión, visando el análisis exploratorio y visualización gráfica de la relación entre las referidas variables, así como análisis de correlación de Spearman entre el IIP y el Índice de Breteau (IB) de cada año, con el objetivo estimar la calidad del LIRAa. El análisis comparativo de los valores de los IIP y las respectivas TI en el período indicó correlación significativa entre esas variables solamente en 2011/2012 (rs = 0,479; p < 0,01). Asimismo, se observó correlación entre los IIP e IB. Es urgente repensar los parámetros establecidos por la metodología LIRAa, e invertir en metodologías alternativas de vigilancia entomoepidemiológica, que midan de forma confiable el riesgo de transmisión en el territorio y así delinear estrategias más efectivas para el control de esas arbovirosis.