Family history aggregation unit-based tests to detect rare genetic variant associations with application to the Framingham Heart Study.

A challenge in standard genetic studies is maintaining good power to detect associations, especially for low prevalent diseases and rare variants. The traditional methods are most powerful when evaluating the association between variants in balanced study designs. Without accounting for family correlation and unbalanced case-control ratio, these analyses could result in inflated type I error. One cost-effective solution to increase statistical power is exploitation of available family history (FH) that contains valuable information about disease heritability. Here, we develop methods to address the aforementioned type I error issues while providing optimal power to analyze aggregates of rare variants by incorporating additional information from FH. With enhanced power in these methods exploiting FH and accounting for relatedness and unbalanced designs, we successfully detect genes with suggestive associations with Alzheimer disease, dementia, and type 2 diabetes by using the exome chip data from the Framingham Heart Study.

A framework for detecting noncoding rare-variant associations of large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies.

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies have enabled analysis of noncoding rare-variant (RV) associations with complex human diseases and traits. Variant-set analysis is a powerful approach to study RV association. However, existing methods have limited ability in analyzing the noncoding genome. We propose a computationally efficient and robust noncoding RV association detection framework, STAARpipeline, to automatically annotate a whole-genome sequencing study and perform flexible noncoding RV association analysis, including gene-centric analysis and fixed window-based and dynamic window-based non-gene-centric analysis by incorporating variant functional annotations. In gene-centric analysis, STAARpipeline uses STAAR to group noncoding variants based on functional categories of genes and incorporate multiple functional annotations. In non-gene-centric analysis, STAARpipeline uses SCANG-STAAR to incorporate dynamic window sizes and multiple functional annotations. We apply STAARpipeline to identify noncoding RV sets associated with four lipid traits in 21,015 discovery samples from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program and replicate several of them in an additional 9,123 TOPMed samples. We also analyze five non-lipid TOPMed traits.

Identification of proteins associated with type 2 diabetes risk in diverse racial and ethnic populations.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several studies have reported associations between specific proteins and type 2 diabetes risk in European populations. To better understand the role played by proteins in type 2 diabetes aetiology across diverse populations, we conducted a large proteome-wide association study using genetic instruments across four racial and ethnic groups: African; Asian; Hispanic/Latino; and European. METHODS: Genome and plasma proteome data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study involving 182 African, 69 Asian, 284 Hispanic/Latino and 409 European individuals residing in the USA were used to establish protein prediction models by using potentially associated cis- and trans-SNPs. The models were applied to genome-wide association study summary statistics of 250,127 type 2 diabetes cases and 1,222,941 controls from different racial and ethnic populations. RESULTS: We identified three, 44 and one protein associated with type 2 diabetes risk in Asian, European and Hispanic/Latino populations, respectively. Meta-analysis identified 40 proteins associated with type 2 diabetes risk across the populations, including well-established as well as novel proteins not yet implicated in type 2 diabetes development. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study improves our understanding of the aetiology of type 2 diabetes in diverse populations. DATA AVAILABILITY: The summary statistics of multi-ethnic type 2 diabetes GWAS of MVP, DIAMANTE, Biobank Japan and other studies are available from The database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP) under accession number phs001672.v3.p1. MESA genetic, proteome and covariate data can be accessed through dbGaP under phs000209.v13.p3. All code is available on GitHub ( https://github.com/Arthur1021/MESA-1K-PWAS ).

The power of TOPMed imputation for the discovery of Latino-enriched rare variants associated with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The Latino population has been systematically underrepresented in large-scale genetic analyses, and previous studies have relied on the imputation of ungenotyped variants based on the 1000 Genomes (1000G) imputation panel, which results in suboptimal capture of low-frequency or Latino-enriched variants. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) released the largest multi-ancestry genotype reference panel representing a unique opportunity to analyse rare genetic variations in the Latino population. We hypothesise that a more comprehensive analysis of low/rare variation using the TOPMed panel would improve our knowledge of the genetics of type 2 diabetes in the Latino population. METHODS: We evaluated the TOPMed imputation performance using genotyping array and whole-exome sequence data in six Latino cohorts. To evaluate the ability of TOPMed imputation to increase the number of identified loci, we performed a Latino type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis in 8150 individuals with type 2 diabetes and 10,735 control individuals and replicated the results in six additional cohorts including whole-genome sequence data from the All of Us cohort. RESULTS: Compared with imputation with 1000G, the TOPMed panel improved the identification of rare and low-frequency variants. We identified 26 genome-wide significant signals including a novel variant (minor allele frequency 1.7%; OR 1.37, p=3.4 × 10-9). A Latino-tailored polygenic score constructed from our data and GWAS data from East Asian and European populations improved the prediction accuracy in a Latino target dataset, explaining up to 7.6% of the type 2 diabetes risk variance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrate the utility of TOPMed imputation for identifying low-frequency variants in understudied populations, leading to the discovery of novel disease associations and the improvement of polygenic scores. DATA AVAILABILITY: Full summary statistics are available through the Common Metabolic Diseases Knowledge Portal ( https://t2d.hugeamp.org/downloads.html ) and through the GWAS catalog ( https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/ , accession ID: GCST90255648). Polygenic score (PS) weights for each ancestry are available via the PGS catalog ( https://www.pgscatalog.org , publication ID: PGP000445, scores IDs: PGS003443, PGS003444 and PGS003445).

More appendicular lean mass relative to body mass index is associated with lower incident diabetes in middle-aged adults in the CARDIA study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although lower lean mass is associated with greater diabetes prevalence in cross-sectional studies, prospective data specifically in middle-aged Black and White adults are lacking. Relative appendicular lean mass (ALM), such as ALM adjusted for body mass index (BMI), is important to consider since muscle mass is associated with overall body size. We investigated whether ALM/BMI is associated with incident type 2 diabetes in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study. METHODS AND RESULTS: 1893 middle-aged adults (55% women) were included. ALM was measured by DXA in 2005-06. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined in 2010-11 or 2015-16 as fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), 2-h glucose on OGTT ≥11.1 mmol/L (200 mg/dL) (2010-11 only), HbA1C ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) (2010-11 only), or glucose-lowering medications. Cox regression models with sex stratification were performed. In men and women, ALM/BMI was 1.07 ± 0.14 (mean ± SD) and 0.73 ± 0.12, respectively. Seventy men (8.2%) and 71 women (6.8%) developed type 2 diabetes. Per sex-specific SD higher ALM/BMI, unadjusted diabetes risk was lower by 21% in men [HR 0.79 (0.62-0.99), p = 0.04] and 29% in women [HR 0.71 (0.55-0.91), p = 0.008]. After adjusting for age, race, smoking, education, physical activity, and waist circumference, the association was no longer significant. Adjustment for waist circumference accounted for the attenuation in men. CONCLUSION: Although more appendicular lean mass relative to BMI is associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men and women over 10 years, its effect may be through other metabolic risk factors such as waist circumference, which is a correlate of abdominal fat mass.

A MUC5B Gene Polymorphism, rs35705950-T, Confers Protective Effects Against COVID-19 Hospitalization but Not Severe Disease or Mortality.

Rationale: A common MUC5B gene polymorphism, rs35705950-T, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but its role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and disease severity is unclear. Objectives: To assess whether rs35705950-T confers differential risk for clinical outcomes associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection among participants in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). Methods: The MUC5B rs35705950-T allele was directly genotyped among MVP participants; clinical events and comorbidities were extracted from the electronic health records. Associations between the incidence or severity of COVID-19 and rs35705950-T were analyzed within each ancestry group in the MVP followed by transancestry meta-analysis. Replication and joint meta-analysis were conducted using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI). Sensitivity analyses with adjustment for additional covariates (body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking, asbestosis, rheumatoid arthritis with interstitial lung disease, and IPF) and associations with post-COVID-19 pneumonia were performed in MVP subjects. Measurements and Main Results: The rs35705950-T allele was associated with fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations in transancestry meta-analyses within the MVP (Ncases = 4,325; Ncontrols = 507,640; OR = 0.89 [0.82-0.97]; P = 6.86 × 10-3) and joint meta-analyses with the HGI (Ncases = 13,320; Ncontrols = 1,508,841; OR, 0.90 [0.86-0.95]; P = 8.99 × 10-5). The rs35705950-T allele was not associated with reduced COVID-19 positivity in transancestry meta-analysis within the MVP (Ncases = 19,168/Ncontrols = 492,854; OR, 0.98 [0.95-1.01]; P = 0.06) but was nominally significant (P < 0.05) in the joint meta-analysis with the HGI (Ncases = 44,820; Ncontrols = 1,775,827; OR, 0.97 [0.95-1.00]; P = 0.03). Associations were not observed with severe outcomes or mortality. Among individuals of European ancestry in the MVP, rs35705950-T was associated with fewer post-COVID-19 pneumonia events (OR, 0.82 [0.72-0.93]; P = 0.001). Conclusions: The MUC5B variant rs35705950-T may confer protection in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Host and gut microbial tryptophan metabolism and type 2 diabetes: an integrative analysis of host genetics, diet, gut microbiome and circulating metabolites in cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Tryptophan can be catabolised to various metabolites through host kynurenine and microbial indole pathways. We aimed to examine relationships of host and microbial tryptophan metabolites with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D), host genetics, diet and gut microbiota. METHOD: We analysed associations between circulating levels of 11 tryptophan metabolites and incident T2D in 9180 participants of diverse racial/ethnic backgrounds from five cohorts. We examined host genome-wide variants, dietary intake and gut microbiome associated with these metabolites. RESULTS: Tryptophan, four kynurenine-pathway metabolites (kynurenine, kynurenate, xanthurenate and quinolinate) and indolelactate were positively associated with T2D risk, while indolepropionate was inversely associated with T2D risk. We identified multiple host genetic variants, dietary factors, gut bacteria and their potential interplay associated with these T2D-relaetd metabolites. Intakes of fibre-rich foods, but not protein/tryptophan-rich foods, were the dietary factors most strongly associated with tryptophan metabolites. The fibre-indolepropionate association was partially explained by indolepropionate-associated gut bacteria, mostly fibre-using Firmicutes. We identified a novel association between a host functional LCT variant (determining lactase persistence) and serum indolepropionate, which might be related to a host gene-diet interaction on gut Bifidobacterium, a probiotic bacterium significantly associated with indolepropionate independent of other fibre-related bacteria. Higher milk intake was associated with higher levels of gut Bifidobacterium and serum indolepropionate only among genetically lactase non-persistent individuals. CONCLUSION: Higher milk intake among lactase non-persistent individuals, and higher fibre intake were associated with a favourable profile of circulating tryptophan metabolites for T2D, potentially through the host-microbial cross-talk shifting tryptophan metabolism toward gut microbial indolepropionate production.

Leveraging family history in genetic association analyses of binary traits.

BACKGROUND: Considering relatives' health history in logistic regression for case-control genome-wide association studies (CC-GWAS) may provide new information that increases accuracy and power to detect disease associated genetic variants. We conducted simulations and analyzed type 2 diabetes (T2D) data from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to compare two methods, liability threshold model conditional on both case-control status and family history (LT-FH) and Fam-meta, which incorporate family history into CC-GWAS. RESULTS: In our simulation scenario of trait with modest T2D heritability (h2 = 0.28), variant minor allele frequency ranging from 1% to 50%, and 1% of phenotype variance explained by the genetic variants, Fam-meta had the highest overall power, while both methods incorporating family history were more powerful than CC-GWAS. All three methods had controlled type I error rates, while LT-FH was the most conservative with a lower-than-expected error rate. In addition, we observed a substantial increase in power of the two familial history methods compared to CC-GWAS when the prevalence of the phenotype increased with age. Furthermore, we showed that, when only the phenotypes of more distant relatives were available, Fam-meta still remained more powerful than CC-GWAS, confirming that leveraging disease history of both close and distant relatives can increase power of association analyses. Using FHS data, we confirmed the well-known association of TCF7L2 region with T2D at the genome-wide threshold of P-value < 5 × 10-8, and both familial history methods increased the significance of the region compared to CC-GWAS. We identified two loci at 5q35 (ADAMTS2) and 5q23 (PRR16), not previously reported for T2D using CC-GWAS and Fam-meta; both genes play a role in cardiovascular diseases. Additionally, CC-GWAS detected one more significant locus at 13q31 (GPC6) reported associated with T2D-related traits. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, LT-FH and Fam-meta had higher power than CC-GWAS in simulations, especially using phenotypes that were more prevalent in older age groups, and both methods detected known genetic variants with lower P-values in real data application, highlighting the benefits of including family history in genetic association studies.

Impact of Rare and Common Genetic Variants on Diabetes Diagnosis by Hemoglobin A1c in Multi-Ancestry Cohorts: The Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Program.

Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is widely used to diagnose diabetes and assess glycemic control in individuals with diabetes. However, nonglycemic determinants, including genetic variation, may influence how accurately HbA1c reflects underlying glycemia. Analyzing the NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) sequence data in 10,338 individuals from five studies and four ancestries (6,158 Europeans, 3,123 African-Americans, 650 Hispanics, and 407 East Asians), we confirmed five regions associated with HbA1c (GCK in Europeans and African-Americans, HK1 in Europeans and Hispanics, FN3K and/or FN3KRP in Europeans, and G6PD in African-Americans and Hispanics) and we identified an African-ancestry-specific low-frequency variant (rs1039215 in HBG2 and HBE1, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.03). The most associated G6PD variant (rs1050828-T, p.Val98Met, MAF = 12% in African-Americans, MAF = 2% in Hispanics) lowered HbA1c (-0.88% in hemizygous males, -0.34% in heterozygous females) and explained 23% of HbA1c variance in African-Americans and 4% in Hispanics. Additionally, we identified a rare distinct G6PD coding variant (rs76723693, p.Leu353Pro, MAF = 0.5%; -0.98% in hemizygous males, -0.46% in heterozygous females) and detected significant association with HbA1c when aggregating rare missense variants in G6PD. We observed similar magnitude and direction of effects for rs1039215 (HBG2) and rs76723693 (G6PD) in the two largest TOPMed African American cohorts, and we replicated the rs76723693 association in the UK Biobank African-ancestry participants. These variants in G6PD and HBG2 were monomorphic in the European and Asian samples. African or Hispanic ancestry individuals carrying G6PD variants may be underdiagnosed for diabetes when screened with HbA1c. Thus, assessment of these variants should be considered for incorporation into precision medicine approaches for diabetes diagnosis.

Body-mass index and diabetes risk in 57 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data in 685 616 adults.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are scant empirical data on the association between body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes in these settings. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys across 57 LMICs. We identified all countries in which a WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) survey had been done during a year in which the country fell into an eligible World Bank income group category. For LMICs that did not have a STEPS survey, did not have valid contact information, or declined our request for data, we did a systematic search for survey datasets. Eligible surveys were done during or after 2008; had individual-level data; were done in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income country; were nationally representative; had a response rate of 50% or higher; contained a diabetes biomarker (either a blood glucose measurement or glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c]); and contained data on height and weight. Diabetes was defined biologically as a fasting plasma glucose concentration of 7·0 mmol/L (126·0 mg/dL) or higher; a random plasma glucose concentration of 11·1 mmol/L (200·0 mg/dL) or higher; or a HbA1c of 6·5% (48·0 mmol/mol) or higher, or by self-reported use of diabetes medication. We included individuals aged 25 years or older with complete data on diabetes status, BMI (defined as normal [18·5-22·9 kg/m2], upper-normal [23·0-24·9 kg/m2], overweight [25·0-29·9 kg/m2], or obese [≥30·0 kg/m2]), sex, and age. Countries were categorised into six geographical regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and central Asia, east, south, and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and Oceania. We estimated the association between BMI and diabetes risk by multivariable Poisson regression and receiver operating curve analyses, stratified by sex and geographical region. FINDINGS: Our pooled dataset from 58 nationally representative surveys in 57 LMICs included 685 616 individuals. The overall prevalence of overweight was 27·2% (95% CI 26·6-27·8), of obesity was 21·0% (19·6-22·5), and of diabetes was 9·3% (8·4-10·2). In the pooled analysis, a higher risk of diabetes was observed at a BMI of 23 kg/m2 or higher, with a 43% greater risk of diabetes for men and a 41% greater risk for women compared with a BMI of 18·5-22·9 kg/m2. Diabetes risk also increased steeply in individuals aged 35-44 years and in men aged 25-34 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the stratified analyses, there was considerable regional variability in this association. Optimal BMI thresholds for diabetes screening ranged from 23·8 kg/m2 among men in east, south, and southeast Asia to 28·3 kg/m2 among women in the Middle East and north Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: The association between BMI and diabetes risk in LMICs is subject to substantial regional variability. Diabetes risk is greater at lower BMI thresholds and at younger ages than reflected in currently used BMI cutoffs for assessing diabetes risk. These findings offer an important insight to inform context-specific diabetes screening guidelines. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program.

Proteomic analysis of cardiometabolic biomarkers and predictive modeling of severe outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The high heterogeneity in the symptoms and severity of COVID-19 makes it challenging to identify high-risk patients early in the disease. Cardiometabolic comorbidities have shown strong associations with COVID-19 severity in epidemiologic studies. Cardiometabolic protein biomarkers, therefore, may provide predictive insight regarding which patients are most susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19. METHODS: In plasma samples collected from 343 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic, we measured 92 circulating protein biomarkers previously implicated in cardiometabolic disease. We performed proteomic analysis and developed predictive models for severe outcomes. We then used these models to predict the outcomes of out-of-sample patients hospitalized with COVID-19 later in the surge (N = 194). RESULTS: We identified a set of seven protein biomarkers predictive of admission to the intensive care unit and/or death (ICU/death) within 28 days of presentation to care. Two of the biomarkers, ADAMTS13 and VEGFD, were associated with a lower risk of ICU/death. The remaining biomarkers, ACE2, IL-1RA, IL6, KIM1, and CTSL1, were associated with higher risk. When used to predict the outcomes of the future, out-of-sample patients, the predictive models built with these protein biomarkers outperformed all models built from standard clinical data, including known COVID-19 risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that proteomic profiling can inform the early clinical impression of a patient's likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 outcomes and, ultimately, accelerate the recognition and treatment of high-risk patients.

Physiological subtypes of gestational glucose intolerance and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Women with gestational glucose intolerance, defined as an abnormal initial gestational diabetes mellitus screening test, are at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes even if they do not have gestational diabetes mellitus. Previously, we defined the physiological subtypes of gestational diabetes mellitus based on the primary underlying physiology leading to hyperglycemia and found that women with different subtypes had differential risks of adverse outcomes. Physiological subclassification has not yet been applied to women with gestational glucose intolerance. OBJECTIVE: We defined the physiological subtypes of gestational glucose intolerance based on the presence of insulin resistance, insulin deficiency, or mixed pathophysiology and aimed to determine whether these subtypes are at differential risks of adverse outcomes. We hypothesized that women with the insulin-resistant subtype of gestational glucose intolerance would have the greatest risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: In a hospital-based cohort study, we studied women with gestational glucose intolerance (glucose loading test 1-hour glucose, ≥140 mg/dL; n=236) and normal glucose tolerance (glucose loading test 1-hour glucose, <140 mg/dL; n=1472). We applied homeostasis model assessment to fasting glucose and insulin levels at 16 to 20 weeks' gestation to assess insulin resistance and deficiency and used these measures to classify women with gestational glucose intolerance into subtypes. We compared odds of adverse outcomes (large for gestational age birthweight, neonatal intensive care unit admission, pregnancy-related hypertension, and cesarean delivery) in each subtype to odds in women with normal glucose tolerance using logistic regression with adjustment for age, race and ethnicity, marital status, and body mass index. RESULTS: Of women with gestational glucose intolerance (12% with gestational diabetes mellitus), 115 (49%) had the insulin-resistant subtype, 70 (27%) had the insulin-deficient subtype, 40 (17%) had the mixed pathophysiology subtype, and 11 (5%) were uncategorized. We found increased odds of large for gestational age birthweight (primary outcome) in women with the insulin-resistant subtype compared with women with normal glucose tolerance (odds ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-3.88; P=.001; adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-3.48; P=.04). The odds of large for gestational age birthweight in women with the insulin-deficient subtype were increased only after adjustment for covariates (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.38; P=.14; adjusted odds ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-4.19; P=.048). Among secondary outcomes, there was a trend toward increased odds of neonatal intensive care unit admission in the insulin-resistant subtype in an unadjusted model (odds ratio, 2.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-4.40; P=.05); this finding was driven by an increased risk of neonatal intensive care unit admission in women with the insulin-resistant subtype and a body mass index of <25 kg/m2. Infants of women with other subtypes did not have increased odds of neonatal intensive care unit admission. The odds of pregnancy-related hypertension in women with the insulin-resistant subtype were increased (odds ratio, 2.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-3.33; P=.002; adjusted odds ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.92; P=.03) compared with women with normal glucose tolerance; other subtypes did not have increased odds of pregnancy-related hypertension. There was no difference in cesarean delivery rates in nulliparous women across subtypes. CONCLUSION: Insulin-resistant gestational glucose intolerance is a high-risk subtype for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Delineating physiological subtypes may provide opportunities for a more personalized approach to gestational glucose intolerance.

CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care. METHODS: We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March-2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3-14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. CONCLUSIONS: CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

Convex combination sequence kernel association test for rare-variant studies.

We propose a novel variant set test for rare-variant association studies, which leverages multiple single-nucleotide variant (SNV) annotations. Our approach optimizes a convex combination of different sequence kernel association test (SKAT) statistics, where each statistic is constructed from a different annotation and combination weights are optimized through a multiple kernel learning algorithm. The combination test statistic is evaluated empirically through data splitting. In simulations, we find our method preserves type I error at α=2.5×10-6 and has greater power than SKAT(-O) when SNV weights are not misspecified and sample sizes are large ( N≥5,000 ). We utilize our method in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to identify SNV sets associated with fasting glucose. While we are unable to detect any genome-wide significant associations between fasting glucose and 4-kb windows of rare variants ( p<10-7 ) in 6,419 FHS participants, our method identifies suggestive associations between fasting glucose and rare variants near ROCK2 ( p=2.1×10-5 ) and within CPLX1 ( p=5.3×10-5 ). These two genes were previously reported to be involved in obesity-mediated insulin resistance and glucose-induced insulin secretion by pancreatic beta-cells, respectively. These findings will need to be replicated in other cohorts and validated by functional genomic studies.

Genetic association tests in family samples for multi-category phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Advancements in statistical methods and sequencing technology have led to numerous novel discoveries in human genetics in the past two decades. Among phenotypes of interest, most attention has been given to studying genetic associations with continuous or binary traits. Efficient statistical methods have been proposed and are available for both types of traits under different study designs. However, for multinomial categorical traits in related samples, there is a lack of efficient statistical methods and software. RESULTS: We propose an efficient score test to analyze a multinomial trait in family samples, in the context of genome-wide association/sequencing studies. An alternative Wald statistic is also proposed. We also extend the methodology to be applicable to ordinal traits. We performed extensive simulation studies to evaluate the type-I error of the score test, Wald test compared to the multinomial logistic regression for unrelated samples, under different allele frequency and study designs. We also evaluate the power of these methods. Results show that both the score and Wald tests have a well-controlled type-I error rate, but the multinomial logistic regression has an inflated type-I error rate when applied to family samples. We illustrated the application of the score test with an application to the Framingham Heart Study to uncover genetic variants associated with diabesity, a multi-category phenotype. CONCLUSION: Both proposed tests have correct type-I error rate and similar power. However, because the Wald statistics rely on computer-intensive estimation, it is less efficient than the score test in terms of applications to large-scale genetic association studies. We provide computer implementation for both multinomial and ordinal traits.

Cardiometabolic risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity: A Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies report associations of diverse cardiometabolic conditions including obesity with COVID-19 illness, but causality has not been established. We sought to evaluate the associations of 17 cardiometabolic traits with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We selected genetic variants associated with each exposure, including body mass index (BMI), at p < 5 × 10-8 from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then calculated inverse-variance-weighted averages of variant-specific estimates using summary statistics for susceptibility and severity from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative GWAS meta-analyses of population-based cohorts and hospital registries comprising individuals with self-reported or genetically inferred European ancestry. Susceptibility was defined as testing positive for COVID-19 and severity was defined as hospitalization with COVID-19 versus population controls (anyone not a case in contributing cohorts). We repeated the analysis for BMI with effect estimates from the UK Biobank and performed pairwise multivariable MR to estimate the direct effects and indirect effects of BMI through obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. Using p < 0.05/34 tests = 0.0015 to declare statistical significance, we found a nonsignificant association of genetically higher BMI with testing positive for COVID-19 (14,134 COVID-19 cases/1,284,876 controls, p = 0.002; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.02, 1.10] per kg/m2; p = 0.004]) and a statistically significant association with higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (6,406 hospitalized COVID-19 cases/902,088 controls, p = 4.3 × 10-5; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.14 [95% CI 1.07, 1.21] per kg/m2, p = 2.1 × 10-5). The implied direct effect of BMI was abolished upon conditioning on the effect on type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease. No other cardiometabolic exposures tested were associated with a higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Small study samples and weak genetic instruments could have limited the detection of modest associations, and pleiotropy may have biased effect estimates away from the null. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found genetic evidence to support higher BMI as a causal risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. These results raise the possibility that obesity could amplify COVID-19 disease burden independently or through its cardiometabolic consequences and suggest that targeting obesity may be a strategy to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is elevated in HIV-infected individuals, with contributions from both traditional and nontraditional risk factors. The accuracy of established CVD risk prediction functions in HIV is uncertain. We sought to assess the performance of 3 established CVD risk prediction functions in a longitudinal cohort of HIV-infected men. METHODS: The FHS (Framingham Heart Study) functions for hard coronary heart disease (FHS CHD) and atherosclerotic CVD (FHS ASCVD) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD function were applied to the Partners HIV cohort. Risk scores were calculated between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2008. Outcomes included CHD (myocardial infarction or coronary death) for the FHS CHD function and ASCVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death) for the FHS ASCVD and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD functions. We investigated the accuracy of CVD risk prediction for each function when applied to the HIV cohort using comparison of Cox regression coefficients, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: The HIV cohort was comprised of 1272 men followed for a median of 4.4 years. There were 78 (6.1%) ASCVD events; the 5-year incidence rate was 16.4 per 1000 person-years. Discrimination was moderate to poor as indicated by the low c statistic (0.68 for FHS CHD, 0.65 for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD, and 0.67 for FHS ASCVD). Observed CVD risk exceeded the predicted risk for each of the functions in most deciles of predicted risk. Calibration, or goodness of fit of the models, was consistently poor, with significant χ2P values for all functions. Recalibration did not significantly improve model fit. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular risk prediction functions developed for use in the general population are inaccurate in HIV infection and systematically underestimate risk in a cohort of HIV-infected men. Development of tailored CVD risk prediction functions incorporating traditional CVD risk factors and HIV-specific factors is likely to result in more accurate risk estimation to guide preventative CVD care.

The Genetic Epidemiology of Type 2 Diabetes: Opportunities for Health Translation.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Genome-wide association studies have delineated the genetic architecture of type 2 diabetes. While functional studies to identify target transcripts are ongoing, new genetic knowledge can be translated directly to health applications. The review covers several translation directions but focuses on genomic polygenic scores for screening and prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: Over 400 genomic variants associated with T2D and its related quantitative traits are now known. Genetic scores comprising dozens to millions of associated variants can predict incident T2D. However, measurement of body mass index is more efficient than genetic scores to detect T2D risk groups, and knowledge of T2D genetic risk alone seems insufficient to improve health. Genetically determined metabolic sub-phenotypes can be identified by clustering variants associated with physiological axes like insulin resistance. Genetic sub-phenotyping may be a way forward to identify specific individual phenotypes for prevention and treatment. Genomic polygenic scores for T2D can predict incident diabetes but may not be useful to improve health overall. Genetic detection of T2D sub-phenotypes could be useful to personalize screening and care.

Metabolomics insights into early type 2 diabetes pathogenesis and detection in individuals with normal fasting glucose.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Identifying the metabolite profile of individuals with normal fasting glucose (NFG [<5.55 mmol/l]) who progressed to type 2 diabetes may give novel insights into early type 2 diabetes disease interception and detection. METHODS: We conducted a population-based prospective study among 1150 Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort participants, age 40-65 years, with NFG. Plasma metabolites were profiled by LC-MS/MS. Penalised regression models were used to select measured metabolites for type 2 diabetes incidence classification (training dataset) and to internally validate the discriminatory capability of selected metabolites beyond conventional type 2 diabetes risk factors (testing dataset). RESULTS: Over a follow-up period of 20 years, 95 individuals with NFG developed type 2 diabetes. Nineteen metabolites were selected repeatedly in the training dataset for type 2 diabetes incidence classification and were found to improve type 2 diabetes risk prediction beyond conventional type 2 diabetes risk factors (AUC was 0.81 for risk factors vs 0.90 for risk factors + metabolites, p = 1.1 × 10-4). Using pathway enrichment analysis, the nitrogen metabolism pathway, which includes three prioritised metabolites (glycine, taurine and phenylalanine), was significantly enriched for association with type 2 diabetes risk at the false discovery rate of 5% (p = 0.047). In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, the type 2 diabetes risk per 1 SD increase in glycine, taurine and phenylalanine was 0.65 (95% CI 0.54, 0.78), 0.73 (95% CI 0.59, 0.9) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.11, 1.65), respectively. Mendelian randomisation demonstrated a similar relationship for type 2 diabetes risk per 1 SD genetically increased glycine (OR 0.89 [95% CI 0.8, 0.99]) and phenylalanine (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.08, 2.4]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In individuals with NFG, information from a discrete set of 19 metabolites improved prediction of type 2 diabetes beyond conventional risk factors. In addition, the nitrogen metabolism pathway and its components emerged as a potential effector of earliest stages of type 2 diabetes pathophysiology.

Sugar-sweetened beverage intake associations with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations are not modified by selected genetic variants in a ChREBP-FGF21 pathway: a meta-analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major dietary contributor to fructose intake. A molecular pathway involving the carbohydrate responsive element-binding protein (ChREBP) and the metabolic hormone fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) may influence sugar metabolism and, thereby, contribute to fructose-induced metabolic disease. We hypothesise that common variants in 11 genes involved in fructose metabolism and the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway may interact with SSB intake to exacerbate positive associations between higher SSB intake and glycaemic traits. METHODS: Data from 11 cohorts (six discovery and five replication) in the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium provided association and interaction results from 34,748 adults of European descent. SSB intake (soft drinks, fruit punches, lemonades or other fruit drinks) was derived from food-frequency questionnaires and food diaries. In fixed-effects meta-analyses, we quantified: (1) the associations between SSBs and glycaemic traits (fasting glucose and fasting insulin); and (2) the interactions between SSBs and 18 independent SNPs related to the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway. RESULTS: In our combined meta-analyses of discovery and replication cohorts, after adjustment for age, sex, energy intake, BMI and other dietary covariates, each additional serving of SSB intake was associated with higher fasting glucose (ß ± SE 0.014 ± 0.004 [mmol/l], p = 1.5 × 10-3) and higher fasting insulin (0.030 ± 0.005 [log e pmol/l], p = 2.0 × 10-10). No significant interactions on glycaemic traits were observed between SSB intake and selected SNPs. While a suggestive interaction was observed in the discovery cohorts with a SNP (rs1542423) in the ß-Klotho (KLB) locus on fasting insulin (0.030 ± 0.011 log e pmol/l, uncorrected p = 0.006), results in the replication cohorts and combined meta-analyses were non-significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this large meta-analysis, we observed that SSB intake was associated with higher fasting glucose and insulin. Although a suggestive interaction with a genetic variant in the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway was observed in the discovery cohorts, this observation was not confirmed in the replication analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trials related to this study were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005131 (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), NCT00005133 (Cardiovascular Health Study), NCT00005121 (Framingham Offspring Study), NCT00005487 (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and NCT00005152 (Nurses' Health Study).