Species invasiveness and community invasibility of North American freshwater fish fauna revealed via trait-based analysis.

While biological invasions are recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity, determining non-native species' abilities to establish in new areas (species invasiveness) and the vulnerability of those areas to invasions (community invasibility) is challenging. Here, we use trait-based analysis to profile invasive species and quantify the community invasibility for >1,800 North American freshwater fish communities. We show that, in addition to effects attributed to propagule pressure caused by human intervention, species with higher fecundity, longer lifespan and larger size tend to be more invasive. Community invasibility peaks when the functional distance among native species was high, leaving unoccupied functional space for the establishment of potential invaders. Our findings illustrate how the functional traits of non-native species determining their invasiveness, and the functional characteristics of the invaded community determining its invasibility, may be identified. Considering those two determinants together will enable better predictions of invasions.

Fine-scale variation in the effect of national border on COVID-19 spread: A case study of the Saxon-Czech border region.

The global extent and temporally asynchronous pattern of COVID-19 spread have repeatedly highlighted the role of international borders in the fight against the pandemic. Additionally, the deluge of high resolution, spatially referenced epidemiological data generated by the pandemic provides new opportunities to study disease transmission at heretofore inaccessible scales. Existing studies of cross-border infection fluxes, for both COVID-19 and other diseases, have largely focused on characterizing overall border effects. Here, we couple fine-scale incidence data with localized regression models to quantify spatial variation in the inhibitory effect of an international border. We take as a case study the border region between the German state of Saxony and the neighboring regions in northwestern Czechia, where municipality-level COVID-19 incidence data are available on both sides of the border. Consistent with past studies, we find an overall inhibitory effect of the border, but with a clear asymmetry, where the inhibitory effect is stronger from Saxony to Czechia than vice versa. Furthermore, we identify marked spatial variation along the border in the degree to which disease spread was inhibited. In particular, the area around Löbau in Saxony appears to have been a hotspot for cross-border disease transmission. The ability to identify infection flux hotspots along international borders may help to tailor monitoring programs and response measures to more effectively limit disease spread.

On the optimal presence strategies for workplace during pandemics: A COVID-19 inspired probabilistic model.

During pandemics like COVID-19, both the quality and quantity of services offered by businesses and organizations have been severely impacted. They often have applied a hybrid home office setup to overcome this problem, although in some situations, working from home lowers employee productivity. So, increasing the rate of presence in the office is frequently desired from the manager's standpoint. On the other hand, as the virus spreads through interpersonal contact, the risk of infection increases when workplace occupancy rises. Motivated by this trade-off, in this paper, we model this problem as a bi-objective optimization problem and propose a practical approach to find the trade-off solutions. We present a new probabilistic framework to compute the expected number of infected employees for a setting of the influential parameters, such as the incidence level in the neighborhood of the company, transmission rate of the virus, number of employees, rate of vaccination, testing frequency, and rate of contacts among the employees. The results show a wide range of trade-offs between the expected number of infections and productivity, for example, from 1 to 6 weekly infections in 100 employees and a productivity level of 65% to 85%. This depends on the configuration of influential parameters and the occupancy level. We implement the model and the algorithm and perform several experiments with different settings of the parameters. Moreover, we developed an online application based on the result in this paper which can be used as a recommender for the optimal rate of occupancy in companies/workplaces.

A network-based approach to identifying correlations between phylogeny, morphological traits and occurrence of fish species in US river basins.

The complex network framework has been successfully used to model interactions between entities in Complex Systems in the Biological Sciences such as Proteomics, Genomics, Neuroscience, and Ecology. Networks of organisms at different spatial scales and in different ecosystems have provided insights into community assembly patterns and emergent properties of ecological systems. In the present work, we investigate two questions pertaining to fish species assembly rules in US river basins, a) if morphologically similar fish species also tend to be phylogenetically closer, and b) to what extent are co-occurring species that are phylogenetically close also morphologically similar? For the first question, we construct a network of Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC8) regions as nodes with interaction strengths (edges) governed by the number of common species. For each of the modules of this network, which are found to be geographically separated, there is differential yet significant evidence that phylogenetic distance predicts morphological distance. For the second question, we construct and analyze nearest neighbor directed networks of species based on their morphological distances and phylogenetic distances. Through module detection on these networks and comparing the module-level mean phylogenetic distance and mean morphological distance with the number of basins of common occurrence of species in modules, we find that both phylogeny and morphology of species have significant roles in governing species co-occurrence, i.e. phylogenetically and morphologically distant species tend to co-exist more. In addition, between the two quantities (morphological distance and phylogentic distance), we find that morphological distance is a stronger determinant of species co-occurrences.

A Web-Based COVID-19 Tool for Testing Residents in Retirement Homes: Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical evidence demonstrated that older people are the most impacted and are at higher risk of mortality after being infected. Regularly testing care facility residents is a practical approach to detecting infections proactively. In many cases, the care staff must perform the tests on the residents while also providing essential care, which in turn causes imbalances in their working time. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of the virus in retirement homes (RHs) is challenging because the residents are in contact with each other, and isolation measures cannot be widely enforced. Regular testing strategies, on the other hand, have been shown to effectively prevent outbreaks in RHs. However, high-frequency testing may consume substantial staff working time, which results in a trade-off between the time invested in testing and the time spent providing essential care to residents. OBJECTIVE: We developed a web application (Retirement Home Testing Optimizer) to assist RH managers in identifying effective testing schedules for residents. The outcome of the app, called the "testing strategy," is based on dividing facility residents into groups and then testing no more than 1 group per day. METHODS: We created the web application by incorporating influential factors such as the number of residents and staff, the average rate of contacts, the amount of time spent to test, and constraints on the test interval and size of groups. We developed mixed integer nonlinear programming models for balancing staff workload in long-term care facilities while minimizing the expected detection time of a probable infection inside the facility. Additionally, by leveraging symmetries in the problem, we proposed a fast and efficient local search method to find the optimal solution. RESULTS: Considering the number of residents and staff and other practical constraints of the facilities, the proposed application computes the optimal trade-off testing strategy and suggests the corresponding grouping and testing schedule for residents. The current version of the application is deployed on the server of the Where2Test project and is accessible on their website. The application is open source, and all contents are offered in English and German. We provide comprehensive instructions and guidelines for easy use and understanding of the application's functionalities. The application was launched in July 2022, and it is currently being tested in RHs in Saxony, Germany. CONCLUSIONS: Recommended testing strategies by our application are tailored to each RH and the goals set by the managers. We advise the users of the application that the proposed model and approach focus on the expected scenarios, that is, the expected risk of infection, and they do not guarantee the avoidance of worst-case scenarios.

Ptolemaic political activities on the west coast of Hellenistic Asia Minor had a significant impact on the local spread of the Isiac cults: A spatial network analysis.

During the reign of the first Ptolemaic kings in Egypt, mainly in the 3rd and 2nd centuries BCE, the Egyptian cults related to the divine couple of Isis and Sarapis (i.e. the Isiac cults) spread successfully from Egypt to ports and coastal cities of the ancient Mediterranean. The discussion on the topic of the factors involved in the process of the early spread of these cults outside Egypt is still open and, so far, the research in this area has been conducted mainly by using established historiographical methods. However, these methods are limited when dealing with the interplay among different variables involved in complex historical processes. This article aims to overcome these limits by using a quantitative spatial network analysis. The results of our previous published research, which focused on a quantitative evaluation of the impact of individual factors on the early spread of the Isiac cults across the ancient Aegean Islands, suggest that the process was promoted by military and commercial activities of the Ptolemaic dynasty, and that the Ptolemaic military operations were the most influential factor. Following these results, this article focuses on the early spread of the Isiac cults on the west coast of Hellenistic Asia Minor, i.e. the region which the Ptolemies attempted to control in the 3rd and 2nd centuries BCE. The statistically significant results presented in this article support the hypothesis that the Ptolemaic political engagement in Asia Minor had a positive impact on the early spread of the Isiac cults. The results also suggest that the activities of the Seleucid dynasty, a political rival of the Ptolemies, in the area of interest could have constituted an immunological factor limiting the spread of the Isiac cults further to the eastern parts of Asia Minor.

Ptolemaic military operations were a dominant factor in the spread of Egyptian cults across the early Hellenistic Aegean Sea.

Early in the Ptolemaic era, Egyptian cults, particularly those of Isis and Sarapis, spread successfully to ports across the ancient Aegean Sea. Leading researchers in the field claim that the spread of these cults was influenced by multiple factors, ones that were mainly economic or political in character. However, the question of which factors had more weight or impact than others in the process of the early spread of Egyptian cults has not yet been answered in academic discussion. This could be related to the fact that the issue of the spread of religious innovations in the ancient Mediterranean has been addressed mainly by established historiographical methods such as the collection and critical analysis of archaeological and literary sources. Hypotheses and conclusions derived from these methods are, however, often unable to reflect the complexity of historical processes. A possible solution can be found in supplementing this established methodological apparatus by formalized methods, e.g. the coding of relevant datasets, statistics, geospatial modeling, and network analysis. To be able to compare the possible impacts of different factors on the spread of Egyptian cults in the Aegean Sea region, we 1) constructed a model of the ancient maritime transportation network as a platform for quantitative analysis, 2) transformed selected factors of possible influence into georeferenced parameters of the network, and 3) defined a mathematical model that allowed us to determine which parameters of the network explain the spatial dissemination of archaeological evidence connected to Egyptian cults. The results suggest that the most significant correlation is between the placement of Ptolemaic garrisons and the distribution of Egyptian temples and artefacts in the early Hellenistic Aegean Sea region. The interpretation would be that Egyptian military forces potentially played a significant role in the spread of Egyptian cults.

Spatial constraints on the diffusion of religious innovations: The case of early Christianity in the Roman Empire.

Christianity emerged as a small and marginal movement in the first century Palestine and throughout the following three centuries it became highly visible in the whole Mediterranean. Little is known about the mechanisms of spreading innovative ideas in past societies. Here we investigate how well the spread of Christianity can be explained as a diffusive process constrained by physical travel in the Roman Empire. First, we combine a previously established model of the transportation network with city population estimates and evaluate to which extent the spatio-temporal pattern of the spread of Christianity can be explained by static factors. Second, we apply a network-theoretical approach to analyze the spreading process utilizing effective distance. We show that the spread of Christianity in the first two centuries closely follows a gravity-guided diffusion, and is substantially accelerated in the third century. Using the effective distance measure, we are able to suggest the probable path of the spread. Our work demonstrates how the spatio-temporal patterns we observe in the data can be explained using only spatial constraints and urbanization structure of the empire. Our findings also provide a methodological framework to be reused for studying other cultural spreading phenomena.