Genomic differentiation and local adaptation on a microgeographic scale in a resident songbird.

Elucidating forces capable of driving species diversification in the face of gene flow remains a key goal in evolutionary biology. Song sparrows, Melospiza melodia, occur as 25 subspecies in diverse habitats across North America, are among the continent's most widespread vertebrate species, and are exemplary of many highly variable species for which the conservation of locally adapted populations may be critical to their range-wide persistence. We focus here on six morphologically distinct subspecies resident in the San Francisco Bay region, including three salt-marsh endemics and three residents in upland and riparian habitats adjacent to the Bay. We used reduced-representation sequencing to generate 2,773 SNPs to explore genetic differentiation, spatial population structure, and demographic history. Clustering separated individuals from each of the six subspecies, indicating subtle differentiation at microgeographic scales. Evidence of limited gene flow and low nucleotide diversity across all six subspecies further supports a hypothesis of isolation among locally adapted populations. We suggest that natural selection for genotypes adapted to salt marsh environments and changes in demography over the past century have acted in concert to drive the patterns of diversification reported here. Our results offer evidence of microgeographic specialization in a highly polytypic bird species long discussed as a model of sympatric speciation and rapid adaptation, and they support the hypothesis that conserving locally adapted populations may be critical to the range-wide persistence of similarly highly variable species.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable.

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.