Modeling of spatiotemporal dynamics of ligand-coated particle flow in targeted drug delivery processes.

Nanoparticles tethered with vasculature-binding epitopes have been used to deliver the drug into injured or diseased tissues via the bloodstream. However, the extent that blood flow dynamics affects nanoparticle retention at the target site after adhesion needs to be better understood. This knowledge gap potentially underlies significantly different therapeutic efficacies between animal models and humans. An experimentally validated mathematical model that accurately simulates the effects of blood flow on nanoparticle adhesion and retention, thus circumventing the limitations of conventional trial-and-error-based drug design in animal models, is lacking. This paper addresses this technical bottleneck and presents an integrated mathematical method that derives heavily from a unique combination of a mechanics-based dispersion model for nanoparticle transport and diffusion in the boundary layers, an asperity model to account for surface roughness of endothelium, and an experimentally calibrated stochastic nanoparticle-cell adhesion model to describe nanoparticle adhesion and subsequent retention at the target site under external flow. PLGA-b-HA nanoparticles tethered with VHSPNKK peptides that specifically bind to vascular cell adhesion molecules on the inflamed vascular wall were investigated. The computational model revealed that larger particles perform better in adhesion and retention at the endothelium for the particle sizes suitable for drug delivery applications and within physiologically relevant shear rates. The computational model corresponded closely to the in vitro experiments which demonstrates the impact that model-based simulations can have on optimizing nanocarriers in vascular microenvironments, thereby substantially reducing in vivo experimentation as well as the development costs.

Seeking arrangements: cell contact as a cleavage-stage biomarker.

RESEARCH QUESTION: What can three-dimensional cell contact networks tell us about the developmental potential of cleavage-stage human embryos? DESIGN: This pilot study was a retrospective analysis of two Embryoscope imaging datasets from two clinics. An artificial intelligence system was used to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of embryos from 11-plane focal stacks. Networks of cell contacts were extracted from the resulting embryo three-dimensional models and each embryo's mean contacts per cell was computed. Unpaired t-tests and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used to statistically analyse mean cell contact outcomes. Cell contact networks from different embryos were compared with identical embryos with similar cell arrangements. RESULTS: At t4, a higher mean number of contacts per cell was associated with greater rates of blastulation and blastocyst quality. No associations were found with biochemical pregnancy, live birth, miscarriage or ploidy. At t8, a higher mean number of contacts was associated with increased blastocyst quality, biochemical pregnancy and live birth. No associations were found with miscarriage or aneuploidy. Mean contacts at t4 weakly correlated with those at t8. Four-cell embryos fell into nine distinct cell arrangements; the five most common accounted for 97% of embryos. Eight-cell embryos, however, displayed a greater degree of variation with 59 distinct cell arrangements. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is provided for the clinical relevance of cleavage-stage cell arrangement in the human preimplantation embryo beyond the four-cell stage, which may improve selection techniques for day-3 transfers. This pilot study provides a strong case for further investigation into spatial biomarkers and three-dimensional morphokinetics.

PMechDB: A Public Database of Elementary Polar Reaction Steps.

Most online chemical reaction databases are not publicly accessible or are fully downloadable. These databases tend to contain reactions in noncanonicalized formats and often lack comprehensive information regarding reaction pathways, intermediates, and byproducts. Within the few publicly available databases, reactions are typically stored in the form of unbalanced, overall transformations with minimal interpretability of the underlying chemistry. These limitations present significant obstacles to data-driven applications including the development of machine learning models. As an effort to overcome these challenges, we introduce PMechDB, a publicly accessible platform designed to curate, aggregate, and share polar chemical reaction data in the form of elementary reaction steps. Our initial version of PMechDB consists of over 100,000 such steps. In the PMechDB, all reactions are stored as canonicalized and balanced elementary steps, featuring accurate atom mapping and arrow-pushing mechanisms. As an online interactive database, PMechDB provides multiple interfaces that enable users to search, download, and upload chemical reactions. We anticipate that the public availability of PMechDB and its standardized data representation will prove beneficial for chemoinformatics research and education and the development of data-driven, interpretable models for predicting reactions and pathways. PMechDB platform is accessible online at https://deeprxn.ics.uci.edu/pmechdb.

Metformin and insulin suppress hepatic gluconeogenesis through phosphorylation of CREB binding protein.

Insulin resistance and elevated glucagon levels result in nonsuppressible hepatic glucose production and hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. The CREB coactivator complex controls transcription of hepatic gluconeogenic enzyme genes. Here, we show that both the antidiabetic agent metformin and insulin phosphorylate the transcriptional coactivator CREB binding protein (CBP) at serine 436 via PKC iota/lambda. This event triggers the dissociation of the CREB-CBP-TORC2 transcription complex and reduces gluconeogenic enzyme gene expression. Mice carrying a germline mutation of this CBP phosphorylation site (S436A) demonstrate resistance to the hypoglycemic effect of both insulin and metformin. Obese, hyperglycemic mice display hepatic insulin resistance, but metformin is still effective in treating the hyperglycemia of these mice since it stimulates CBP phosphorylation by bypassing the block in insulin signaling. Our findings point to CBP phosphorylation at Ser436 by metformin as critical for its therapeutic effect, and as a potential target for pharmaceutical intervention.

In-drop thermal cycling of microcrystal assembly for senescence control (MASC) with minimal variation in efficacy.

The secretome from mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) has recently gained attention for new therapeutics. However, clinical application requires in vitro cell manufacturing to attain enough cells. Unfortunately, this process often drives MSCs into a senescent state that drastically changes cellular secretion activities. Antioxidants are used to reverse and prevent the propagation of senescence; however, their activity is short-lived. Polymer-stabilized crystallization of antioxidants has been shown to improve bioactivity, but the broad crystal size distribution (CSD) significantly increases the efficacy variation. Efforts were made to crystalize drugs in microdroplets to narrow the CSD, but the fraction of drops containing at least one crystal can be as low as 20%. To this end, this study demonstrates that in-drop thermal cycling of hyaluronic acid-modified antioxidant crystals, named microcrystal assembly for senescence control (MASC), can drive the fraction of microdrops containing crystals to >86% while achieving significantly narrower CSDs (13±3µm) than in bulk (35±11µm). Therefore, this approach considerably improves the practicality of CSD-control in drops. In addition to exhibiting uniform release, MASC made with antioxidizing N-acetylcysteine extended the release time by 40%. MASC further improves the restoration of reactive oxygen species homeostasis in MSCs, thus minimizing cellular senescence and preserving desired secretion activities. We propose that MASC is broadly useful to controlling senescence of a wide array of therapeutic cells during biomanufacturing.

Feature-specific inference for penalized regression using local false discovery rates.

Penalized regression methods such as the lasso are a popular approach to analyzing high-dimensional data. One attractive property of the lasso is that it naturally performs variable selection. An important area of concern, however, is the reliability of these selections. Motivated by local false discovery rate methodology from the large-scale hypothesis testing literature, we propose a method for calculating a local false discovery rate for each variable under consideration by the lasso model. These rates can be used to assess the reliability of an individual feature, or to estimate the model's overall false discovery rate. The method can be used for any level of regularization. This is particularly useful for models with a few highly significant features but a high overall false discovery rate, a relatively common occurrence when using cross validation to select a model. It is also flexible enough to be applied to many varieties of penalized likelihoods including generalized linear models and Cox regression, and a variety of penalties, including the minimax concave penalty (MCP) and smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty. We demonstrate the validity of this approach and contrast it with other inferential methods for penalized regression as well as with local false discovery rates for univariate hypothesis tests. Finally, we show the practical utility of our method by applying it to a case study involving gene expression in breast cancer patients.

Accurate Host-Guest Binding Free Energies Using the AMOEBA Polarizable Force Field.

A grand challenge of computational biophysics is accurate prediction of interactions between molecules. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have recently gained much interest as a tool to directly compute rigorous intermolecular binding affinities. The choice of a fixed point-charge or polarizable multipole force field used in MD is a topic of ongoing discussion. To compare alternative methods, we participated in the SAMPL7 and SAMPL8 Gibb octaacid host-guest challenges to assess the Atomic Multipole Optimized Energetics for Biomolecular Applications (AMOEBA) polarizable multipole force field. Advantages of AMOEBA over fixed charge models include improved representation of molecular electrostatic potentials and better description of water occupying the unligated host cavity. Prospective predictions for 26 host-guest systems exhibit a mean unsigned error vs experiment of 0.848 kcal/mol across all absolute binding free energies, demonstrating excellent agreement between computational and experimental results. In addition, we explore two topics related to the inclusion of ions in MD simulations: use of a neutral co-alchemical protocol and the effect of salt concentration on binding affinity. Use of the co-alchemical method minimally affects computed energies, but salt concentration significantly perturbs our binding results. Higher salt concentration strengthens binding through classical charge screening. In particular, added Na+ ions screen negatively charged carboxylate groups near the binding cavity, thereby diminishing repulsive coulomb interactions with negatively charged guests. Overall, the AMOEBA results demonstrate the accuracy available through a force field providing a detailed energetic description of the four octaacid hosts and 13 charged organic guests. Use of the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole force field in conjunction with an alchemical free energy protocol can achieve chemical accuracy in application to realistic molecular systems.

WikiPathways: connecting communities.

WikiPathways (https://www.wikipathways.org) is a biological pathway database known for its collaborative nature and open science approaches. With the core idea of the scientific community developing and curating biological knowledge in pathway models, WikiPathways lowers all barriers for accessing and using its content. Increasingly more content creators, initiatives, projects and tools have started using WikiPathways. Central in this growth and increased use of WikiPathways are the various communities that focus on particular subsets of molecular pathways such as for rare diseases and lipid metabolism. Knowledge from published pathway figures helps prioritize pathway development, using optical character and named entity recognition. We show the growth of WikiPathways over the last three years, highlight the new communities and collaborations of pathway authors and curators, and describe various technologies to connect to external resources and initiatives. The road toward a sustainable, community-driven pathway database goes through integration with other resources such as Wikidata and allowing more use, curation and redistribution of WikiPathways content.

Profiling Adult L2 Readers in English Bridge Programs: A Not-So-Simple View of L1 Effect.

This study aimed to validate the Simple View of Reading (SVR) in L2 English readers with alphabetic and morphosyllabic L1 writing system backgrounds. Forty-five L2 English learners enrolled in American university bridge programs completed a set of tasks that measured real word decoding efficiency, pseudoword decoding efficiency, linguistic (listening) comprehension, passage reading comprehension, and word meaning inferencing. There were two major findings: (1) only pseudoword decoding efficiency predicted passage reading comprehension in learners with a morphosyllabic L1, whereas both pseudoword decoding efficiency and linguistic comprehension were significant predictors in learners with an alphabetic L1; (2) pseudoword decoding efficiency was a significant predictor of word meaning inferencing in learners with a morphosyllabic L1, and moderated the effect of real word decoding efficiency on word meaning inference in learners with an alphabetic L1. The findings indicate the complex relationships among word decoding, linguistic comprehension, and passage reading comprehension in adult L2 English learners.

A model for leveraging animal movement to understand spatio-temporal disease dynamics.

The ongoing explosion of fine-resolution movement data in animal systems provides a unique opportunity to empirically quantify spatial, temporal and individual variation in transmission risk and improve our ability to forecast disease outbreaks. However, we lack a generalizable model that can leverage movement data to quantify transmission risk and how it affects pathogen invasion and persistence on heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a flexible model 'Movement-driven modelling of spatio-temporal infection risk' (MoveSTIR) that leverages diverse data on animal movement to derive metrics of direct and indirect contact by decomposing transmission into constituent processes of contact formation and duration and pathogen deposition and acquisition. We use MoveSTIR to demonstrate that ignoring fine-scale animal movements on actual landscapes can mis-characterize transmission risk and epidemiological dynamics. MoveSTIR unifies previous work on epidemiological contact networks and can address applied and theoretical questions at the nexus of movement and disease ecology.

Associations of serum IL-6 with muscle, bone, and adipose tissue in women.

This cross-sectional study examined the associations between serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) and muscle, bone, and fat parameters in recreationally active women. One-hundred forty-five women (48.7 ± 17.8 years; 164.4 ± 7.1 cm; 66.8 ± 10.7 kg; and 24.7 ± 3.9 kg/m2) underwent dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) assessments to determine total and regional muscle, bone, and fat parameters. Muscle performance of the knee extensors was examined via isometric, isotonic, and isokinetic dynamometry assessments, and serum IL-6 was measured via enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Serum IL-6 was inversely associated with thigh muscle cross-sectional area (mCSA, r = -0.28, p < 0.01); isometric strength (r = -0.19, p < 0.05); hip areal bone mineral density [aBMD] (r = -0.18, p < 0.05); trochanter aBMD (r = -0.23, p < 0.01); total body aBMD (r = -0.20, p < 0.05); cortical volumetric bone density at 38 and 66% tibia (r = -0.18 and r = -0.19, respectively, both p < 0.05), and 66% cortical thickness (r = -0.17, p < 0.05). These associations were present after adjusting for age, BMI, and physical activity. Thigh mCSA was significantly lower in the tertile possessing the greatest IL-6 compared to the lowest tertile (p < 0.01); after adjusting for age, body mass index, and physical activity. Collectively, these observations indicate that IL-6 is inversely associated with skeletal muscle and bone parameters independent of relevant confounders. These observations bolster the prognostic value of serum IL-6.

NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Hematopoietic Growth Factors, Version 1.2022.

The NCCN Guidelines for Hematopoietic Growth Factors provide recommendations for the appropriate use of growth factors in the clinical management of febrile neutropenia (FN), chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT), and chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA). Management and prevention of these sequelae are an integral part of supportive care for many patients undergoing cancer treatment. The purpose of these guidelines is to operationalize the evaluation, prevention, and treatment of FN, CIT, and CIA in adult patients with nonmyeloid malignancies and to enable the patient and clinician to assess management options for FN, CIT, and CIA in the context of an individual patient's condition. These NCCN Guidelines Insights provide a summary of the important recent updates to the NCCN Guidelines for Hematopoietic Growth Factors, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of a newly developed section on CIT.

Concurrent chemoradiation and Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields, 200 kHz) for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma: patterns of progression in a single institution pilot study.

Current standard of care for glioblastoma (GBM) includes concurrent chemoradiation and maintenance temozolomide (TMZ) with Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields). Preclinical studies suggest TTFields and radiation treatment have synergistic effects. We conducted a pilot clinical trial of concurrent chemoradiation with TTFields and report pattern of progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a single arm pilot study (clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03477110). Adult patients (age ≥ 18 years) with KPS ≥ 60 with newly diagnosed GBM were eligible. All patients received concurrent scalp-sparing radiation (60 Gy in 30 fractions), standard concurrent TMZ and TTFields. Maintenance therapy included standard TMZ and continuation of TTFields. Radiation treatment was delivered through TTFields arrays. Incidence and location of progression was documented. Distant recurrence was defined as recurrence more than 2 cm from the primary enhancing lesion. RESULTS: Thirty patients were enrolled on the trial. Twenty were male with median age 58 years (19-77 years). Median KPS was 90 (70-100). Median follow-up was 15.2 months (1.7-23.6 months). Ten (33.3%) patients had a methylated promoter status. Twenty-seven patients (90%) had progression, with median PFS of 9.3 months (range 8.5 to 11.6 months). Six patients presented with distant recurrence, with median distance from primary lesion of 5.05 cm (2.26-6.95 cm). One infratentorial progression was noted. CONCLUSIONS: We observed improved local control using concurrent chemoradiation with TTFields for patients with newly diagnosed when compared to historical controls. Further data are needed to validate this finding. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier NCT03477110.

First-in-man histotripsy of hepatic tumors: the THERESA trial, a feasibility study.

Rationale Current hepatic locoregional therapies are limited in terms of effectiveness and toxicities. Given promising pre-clinical results, a first in-human trial was designed to assess the technical effectiveness and safety profile of histotripsy, a noninvasive, non-thermal, non-ionizing focused ultrasound therapy that creates precise, predictable tissue destruction, in patients with primary and secondary liver tumors.Methods A multicenter phase I trial (Theresa Study) was performed in a single country with 8 weeks of planned follow-up. Eight of fourteen recruited patients were deemed eligible and enrolled in the study. Hepatic histotripsy, was performed with a prototype system (HistoSonics, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI). Eleven tumors were targeted in the 8 patients who all had unresectable end-stage multifocal liver tumors: colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) in 5 patients (7 tumors), breast cancer metastases in 1 (1 tumor), cholangiocarcinoma metastases in 1 (2 tumors), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 1 (1 tumor). The primary endpoint was acute technical success, defined as creating a zone of tissue destruction per planned volume assessed by MRI 1-day post-procedure. Safety (device-related adverse events) through 2 months was a secondary endpoint.Results The 8 patients had a median age of 60.4 years with an average targeted tumor diameter of 1.4 cm. The primary endpoint was achieved in all procedures. The secondary safety profile endpoint identified no device-related adverse events. Two patients experienced a continuous decline in tumor markers during the eight weeks following the procedure.Conclusions This first-in-human trial demonstrates that hepatic histotripsy effectively destroys liver tissue in a predictable manner, correlating very well with the planned histotripsy volume, and has a high safety profile without any device-related adverse events. Based on these results, the need for more definitive clinical trials is warranted. Trial Registration: Study to Evaluate VORTX Rx (Theresa). NCT03741088. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03741088 KEY POINTSHistotripsy, a new noninvasive, non-thermal, non-ionizing focused ultrasound therapy, safely created a zone of tissue destruction in the liver that correlated very well with the pre-defined planned tissue destruction volume.In this first human trial histotripsy was well tolerated with no histotripsy device-related adverse events and its primary endpoint of acute technical success was achieved in all 8 enrolled patients with primary or secondary liver tumors.This new locoregional therapy for patients with liver tumors is safe and effective, warranting further trials.

Addressing the Challenges of Novel Oncology and Hematology Treatments Across Sites of Care: Specialty Pharmacy Solutions.

Background: The number of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals for anticancer therapies has significantly increased in recent years, but these novel therapies are costly and present challenges to patients and providers. Many institutions have implemented health systems specialty pharmacies (HSSPs) to help patients and providers navigate financial and logistical barriers to treatment with oral anticancer therapies. Patients on oral anticancer therapy are often treated across multiple sites of care which can complicate the inpatient specialty medication initiation process. Health systems often limit inclusion of oral anticancer therapies for inpatient administration due to costs, however several new therapies necessitate admission for treatment initiation. Health systems are then faced with the challenge of starting costly oral anticancer therapy inpatient and ensuring continued access to therapy upon discharge. We describe the integrated HSSP multidisciplinary approach to this MUP including providers, inpatient and outpatient pharmacists, specialty and inpatient pharmacies, institutional procurement team, and the institutional pharmacy and therapeutics (P&T) committee to streamline this process.The HSSP multidisciplinary processes addresses a growing need for cancer patients to receive timely and affordable treatments across different sites of care. The healthcare team and P&T committee ensure the patient receives the most appropriate therapy while being conscious of health-system costs. The HSSP and procurement team ensure the patient can obtain and afford the medication. The implemented processes allows for direct communication and collaboration between different sites of care and this collaborative approach leads to optimal patient care.

Functional Diversification and Structural Origins of Plant Natural Product Methyltransferases.

In plants, methylation is a common step in specialized metabolic pathways, leading to a vast diversity of natural products. The methylation of these small molecules is catalyzed by S-adenosyl-l-methionine (SAM)-dependent methyltransferases, which are categorized based on the methyl-accepting atom (O, N, C, S, or Se). These methyltransferases are responsible for the transformation of metabolites involved in plant defense response, pigments, and cell signaling. Plant natural product methyltransferases are part of the Class I methyltransferase-superfamily containing the canonical Rossmann fold. Recent advances in genomics have accelerated the functional characterization of plant natural product methyltransferases, allowing for the determination of substrate specificities and regioselectivity and further realizing the potential for enzyme engineering. This review compiles known biochemically characterized plant natural product methyltransferases that have contributed to our knowledge in the diversification of small molecules mediated by methylation steps.

Perceived Stress and Molecular Bacterial Vaginosis in the National Institutes of Health Longitudinal Study of Vaginal Flora.

Vaginal microbiota provide the first line of defense against urogenital infections primarily through protective actions of Lactobacillus species Perceived stress increases susceptibility to infection through several mechanisms, including suppression of immune function. We investigated whether stress was associated with deleterious changes to vaginal bacterial composition in a subsample of 572 women in the Longitudinal Study of Vaginal Flora, sampled from 1999 through 2002. Using Cox proportional hazards models, both unadjusted and adjusted for sociodemographic factors and sexual behaviors, we found that participants who exhibited a 5-unit-increase in Cohen's Perceived Stress Scale had greater risk (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.74) of developing molecular bacterial vaginosis (BV), a state with low Lactobacillus abundance and diverse anaerobic bacteria. A 5-unit increase in stress score was also associated with greater risks of transitioning from the L. iners-dominated community state type (26% higher) to molecular-BV (adjusted HR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.56) or maintaining molecular-BV from baseline (adjusted HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.47). Inversely, women with baseline molecular-BV reporting a 5-unit stress increase were less likely to transition to microbiota dominated by L. crispatus, L. gasseri, or L. jensenii (adjusted HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.99). These findings suggest that psychosocial stress is associated with vaginal microbiota composition, inviting a more mechanistic exploration of the relationship between psychosocial stress and molecular-BV.

Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States.

Spatially explicit livestock disease models require demographic data for individual farms or premises. In the U.S., demographic data are only available aggregated at county or coarser scales, so disease models must rely on assumptions about how individual premises are distributed within counties. Here, we addressed the importance of realistic assumptions for this purpose. We compared modeling of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks using simple randomization of locations to premises configurations predicted by the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS), which infers location based on features such as topography, land-cover, climate, and roads. We focused on three premises-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed models available from the literature, all using the same kernel approach but with different parameterizations and functional forms. By computing the basic reproductive number of the infection (R0) for both FLAPS and randomized configurations, we investigated how spatial locations and clustering of premises affects outbreak predictions. Further, we performed stochastic simulations to evaluate if identified differences were consistent for later stages of an outbreak. Using Ripley's K to quantify clustering, we found that FLAPS configurations were substantially more clustered at the scales relevant for the implemented models, leading to a higher frequency of nearby premises compared to randomized configurations. As a result, R0 was typically higher in FLAPS configurations, and the simulation study corroborated the pattern for later stages of outbreaks. Further, both R0 and simulations exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in terms of differences between configurations. Thus, using realistic assumptions when de-aggregating locations based on available data can have a pronounced effect on epidemiological predictions, affecting if, where, and to what extent FMD may invade the population. We conclude that methods such as FLAPS should be preferred over randomization approaches.

Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature.

Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly spilling over into humans and domestic animals. Surveillance and risk assessments for transmission between these populations are informed by a mechanistic understanding of the pathogens in wildlife reservoirs. For avian influenza viruses (AIV), much observational and experimental work in wildlife has been conducted at local scales, yet fully understanding their spread and distribution requires assessing the mechanisms acting at both local, (e.g., intrinsic epidemic dynamics), and continental scales, (e.g., long-distance migration). Here, we combined a large, continental-scale data set on low pathogenic, Type A AIV in the United States with a novel network-based application of bird banding/recovery data to investigate the migration-based drivers of AIV and their relative importance compared to well-characterized local drivers (e.g., demography, environmental persistence). We compared among regression models reflecting hypothesized ecological processes and evaluated their ability to predict AIV in space and time using within and out-of-sample validation. We found that predictors of AIV were associated with multiple mechanisms at local and continental scales. Hypotheses characterizing local epidemic dynamics were strongly supported, with age, the age-specific aggregation of migratory birds in an area and temperature being the best predictors of infection. Hypotheses defining larger, network-based features of the migration processes, such as clustering or between-cluster mixing explained less variation but were also supported. Therefore, our results support a role for local processes in driving the continental distribution of AIV.

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs.

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group and spatial distribution (monthly home-range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modelling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. We demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially and socially structured wildlife species.