Detecting Heterogeneity of Intervention Effects Using Analysis and Meta-analysis of Differences in Variance Between Trial Arms.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with continuous outcomes usually only examine mean differences in response between trial arms. If the intervention has heterogeneous effects, then outcome variances will also differ between arms. Power of an individual trial to assess heterogeneity is lower than the power to detect the same size of main effect. METHODS: We describe several methods for assessing differences in variance in trial arms and apply them to a single trial with individual patient data and to meta-analyses using summary data. Where individual data are available, we use regression-based methods to examine the effects of covariates on variation. We present an additional method to meta-analyze differences in variances with summary data. RESULTS: In the single trial, there was agreement between methods, and the difference in variance was largely due to differences in prevalence of depression at baseline. In two meta-analyses, most individual trials did not show strong evidence of a difference in variance between arms, with wide confidence intervals. However, both meta-analyses showed evidence of greater variance in the control arm, and in one example, this was perhaps because mean outcome in the control arm was higher. CONCLUSIONS: Using meta-analysis, we overcame low power of individual trials to examine differences in variance using meta-analysis. Evidence of differences in variance should be followed up to identify potential effect modifiers and explore other possible causes such as varying compliance.

The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics.

Ebola emerged in West Africa around December 2013 and swept through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, giving rise to 27,748 confirmed, probable and suspected cases reported by 29 July 2015. Case diagnoses during the epidemic have relied on polymerase chain reaction-based tests. Owing to limited laboratory capacity and local transport infrastructure, the delays from sample collection to test results being available have often been 2 days or more. Point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests offer the potential to substantially reduce these delays. We review Ebola rapid diagnostic tests approved by the World Health Organization and those currently in development. Such rapid diagnostic tests could allow early triaging of patients, thereby reducing the potential for nosocomial transmission. In addition, despite the lower test accuracy, rapid diagnostic test-based diagnosis may be beneficial in some contexts because of the reduced time spent by uninfected individuals in health-care settings where they may be at increased risk of infection; this also frees up hospital beds. We use mathematical modelling to explore the potential benefits of diagnostic testing strategies involving rapid diagnostic tests alone and in combination with polymerase chain reaction testing. Our analysis indicates that the use of rapid diagnostic tests with sensitivity and specificity comparable with those currently under development always enhances control, whether evaluated at a health-care-unit or population level. If such tests had been available throughout the recent epidemic, we estimate, for Sierra Leone, that their use in combination with confirmatory polymerase chain-reaction testing might have reduced the scale of the epidemic by over a third.

Methods for Dealing With Missing Covariate Data in Epigenome-Wide Association Studies.

Multiple imputation (MI) is a well-established method for dealing with missing data. MI is computationally intensive when imputing missing covariates with high-dimensional outcome data (e.g., DNA methylation data in epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS)), because every outcome variable must be included in the imputation model to avoid biasing associations towards the null. Instead, EWAS analyses are reduced to only complete cases, limiting statistical power and potentially causing bias. We used simulations to compare 5 MI methods for high-dimensional data under 2 missingness mechanisms. All imputation methods had increased power over complete-case (C-C) analyses. Imputing missing values separately for each variable was computationally inefficient, but dividing sites at random into evenly sized bins improved efficiency and gave low bias. Methods imputing solely using subsets of sites identified by the C-C analysis suffered from bias towards the null. However, if these subsets were added into random bins of sites, this bias was reduced. The optimal methods were applied to an EWAS with missingness in covariates. All methods identified additional sites over the C-C analysis, and many of these sites had been replicated in other studies. These methods are also applicable to other high-dimensional data sets, including the rapidly expanding area of "-omics" studies.

The effect of a lifestyle intervention in obese pregnant women on gestational metabolic profiles: findings from the UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity Trial (UPBEAT) randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy is associated with widespread change in metabolism, which may be more marked in obese women. Whether lifestyle interventions in obese pregnant women improve pregnancy metabolic profiles remains unknown. Our objectives were to determine the magnitude of change in metabolic measures during obese pregnancy, to indirectly compare these to similar profiles in a general pregnant population, and to determine the impact of a lifestyle intervention on change in metabolic measures in obese pregnant women. METHODS: Data from a randomised controlled trial of 1158 obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) pregnant women recruited from six UK inner-city obstetric departments were used. Women were randomised to either the UPBEAT intervention, a tailored complex lifestyle intervention focused on improving diet and physical activity, or standard antenatal care (control group). UPBEAT has been shown to improve diet and physical activity during pregnancy and up to 6-months postnatally in obese women and to reduce offspring adiposity at 6-months; it did not affect risk of gestational diabetes (the primary outcome). Change in the concentrations of 158 metabolic measures (129 lipids, 9 glycerides and phospholipids, and 20 low-molecular weight metabolites), quantified three times during pregnancy, were compared using multilevel models. The role of chance was assessed with a false discovery rate of 5% adjusted p values. RESULTS: All very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles increased by 1.5-3 standard deviation units (SD) whereas intermediate density lipoprotein and specific (large, medium and small) LDL particles increased by 1-2 SD, between 16 and 36 weeks' gestation. Triglycerides increased by 2-3 SD, with more modest changes in other metabolites. Indirect comparisons suggest that the magnitudes of change across pregnancy in these obese women were 2- to 3-fold larger than in unselected women (n = 4260 in cross-sectional and 583 in longitudinal analyses) from an independent, previously published, study. The intervention reduced the rate of increase in extremely large, very large, large and medium VLDL particles, particularly those containing triglycerides. CONCLUSION: There are marked changes in lipids and lipoproteins and more modest changes in other metabolites across pregnancy in obese women, with some evidence that this is more marked than in unselected pregnant women. The UPBEAT lifestyle intervention may contribute to a healthier metabolic profile in obese pregnant women, but our results require replication. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UPBEAT was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN89971375 , on July 23, 2008 (prior to recruitment).

Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission.

With more than 1,700 laboratory-confirmed infections, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a significant threat for public health. However, the lack of detailed data on modes of transmission from the animal reservoir and between humans means that the drivers of MERS-CoV epidemics remain poorly characterized. Here, we develop a statistical framework to provide a comprehensive analysis of the transmission patterns underlying the 681 MERS-CoV cases detected in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between January 2013 and July 2014. We assess how infections from the animal reservoir, the different levels of mixing, and heterogeneities in transmission have contributed to the buildup of MERS-CoV epidemics in KSA. We estimate that 12% [95% credible interval (CI): 9%, 15%] of cases were infected from the reservoir, the rest via human-to-human transmission in clusters (60%; CI: 57%, 63%), within (23%; CI: 20%, 27%), or between (5%; CI: 2%, 8%) regions. The reproduction number at the start of a cluster was 0.45 (CI: 0.33, 0.58) on average, but with large SD (0.53; CI: 0.35, 0.78). It was >1 in 12% (CI: 6%, 18%) of clusters but fell by approximately one-half (47% CI: 34%, 63%) its original value after 10 cases on average. The ongoing exposure of humans to MERS-CoV from the reservoir is of major concern, given the continued risk of substantial outbreaks in health care systems. The approach we present allows the study of infectious disease transmission when data linking cases to each other remain limited and uncertain.

Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.

BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014.

To determine transmission potential of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we used symptom onset data to compare 2 waves of infection in China during 2013-2014. We found evidence of increased transmission potential in the second wave and showed that live bird market closure was significantly less effective in Guangdong than in other regions.

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

Return to 1616: Multispecies Fauna Reconstruction Requires Thinking Outside the Box.

Conservation translocations have become increasingly popular for 'rewilding' areas that have lost their native fauna. These multispecies translocations are complex and need to consider the requirements of each individual species as well as the influence of likely interactions among them. The Dirk Hartog Island National Park Ecological Restoration Project, Return to 1616, aspires to restore ecological function to Western Australia's largest island. Since 2012, pest animals have been eradicated, and conservation translocations of seven fauna species have been undertaken, with a further six planned. Here, we present a synthesis of the innovative approaches undertaken in restoring the former faunal assemblage of Dirk Hartog Island and the key learnings gathered as the project has progressed.

Adiposity and cardiovascular outcomes in three-year-old children of participants in UPBEAT, an RCT of a complex intervention in pregnant women with obesity.

BACKGROUND: Maternal obesity is associated with offspring cardiometabolic risk. UPBEAT was a randomised controlled trial of an antenatal diet and physical activity intervention in 1555 women with obesity. The intervention was associated with lower gestational weight gain, healthier diet and metabolic profile in pregnancy, and reduced infant adiposity at six months. OBJECTIVE: We have investigated whether the UPBEAT intervention influenced childhood cardiometabolic outcomes or was associated with sustained improvements in maternal lifestyle 3-years after delivery. METHODS: In UPBEAT mother-child dyads at the 3-year follow-up, we assessed childhood blood pressure, resting pulse rate, and adiposity (body mass index, skinfold thicknesses, body fat, waist and arm circumferences) and maternal diet, physical activity, and anthropometry. RESULTS: 514 three-year-old children attended the appointment (49% intervention, 51% standard care). There was no difference in the main outcome of interest, subscapular skinfold thickness, between the trial arms (-0.30 mm, 95% confidence interval: -0.92, 0.31). However, the intervention was associated with a lower resting pulse rate (-5 bpm [-8.41, -1.07]). There was also a non-significant lower odds of overweight/obesity (OR 0.73; 0.50, 1.08). Maternal dietary improvements observed in the UPBEAT trial, including glycaemic load and saturated fat were maintained 3-years postpartum. CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated that an antenatal dietary and physical activity intervention in women with obesity is associated with lower offspring pulse rate and sustained improvement in maternal diet. Whilst larger than previous cohorts, there remains potential for bias from attrition and these findings require validation in future cohorts.

Offspring sex varies with maternal investment ability: empirical demonstration based on cross-fostering.

Despite decades of interest, adaptive explanations for biased offspring sex ratios in mammals remain contentious, largely because direct tests of the underlying fitness assumptions of adaptive hypotheses are rarely conducted. These tests are complicated by the difficulty of manipulating offspring sex prior to significant maternal investment owing to the biological constraints of viviparity. We test the adaptive advantage of sex allocation through cross-fostering offspring by sex in tammar wallabies. We examine whether offspring sex is correlated with maternal investment ability (i.e. Trivers-Willard hypothesis, TWH). In addition, we test the assumption that maternal investment has a greater influence on the fitness of sons than of daughters. We failed to find statistical support for maternal investment ability influencing a son's weaning success or body size more than a daughter's, although this result was probably owing to small sample sizes. In support of the TWH, females that gave birth to a son had higher investment ability (likelihood of weaning an offspring) regardless of the sex of offspring fostered.

Self-help interventions to reduce self-stigma in people with mental health problems: A systematic literature review.

People with mental health problems often experience self-stigma, whereby they internalise stereotypic or stigmatising views held by others. Self-stigma is known to have negative effects on self-esteem and self-efficacy and a continuing impact on psychological wellbeing. Self-help interventions designed to reduce self-stigma may have an important contribution to make. This review aimed to provide an overview and critical appraisal of the literature on self-help interventions that target self-stigma related to mental health problems. A systematic review of five electronic databases (PsycINFO, MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, Scopus and EMBASE) was carried out to identify articles published between January 2007 and July 2019. Eight articles that reported on self-help interventions for self-stigma were identified and evaluated using a combination of quality appraisal and narrative synthesis.

Data-driven approach to using individual cattle weights to estimate mean adult dairy cattle weight.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of accurate weights of cattle is crucial for effective dosing of individual animals and for reporting antimicrobial usage. For the first time, we provide an evidence-based estimate of the average weight of UK dairy cattle to better inform farmers, veterinarians and the scientific community. METHODS: Data were collected for 2747 lactating dairy cattle from 20 farms in the UK. Data were used to calculate a mean weight for lactating dairy cattle by breed and a UK-specific mean weight. Trends in weight by lactation number and production level were also explored. RESULTS: Mean weight for adult dairy cattle in this study was 617 kg (sd=85.6 kg). Mean weight varied across breeds, with a range of 466 kg (sd=56.0 kg, Jersey) to 636 kg (sd=84.1, Holsteins). When scaled to UK breed proportions, the estimated UK-specific mean weight was 620 kg. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to calculate a mean weight of adult dairy cattle in the UK based on on-farm data. Overall mean weight was higher than that most often proposed in the literature (600 kg). Evidence-informed weights are crucial as the UK works to better monitor and report metrics to measure antimicrobial use and are useful to farmers and veterinarians to inform dosing decisions.

Storage of prescription veterinary medicines on UK dairy farms: a cross-sectional study.

Prescription veterinary medicine (PVM) use in the UK is an area of increasing focus for the veterinary profession. While many studies measure antimicrobial use on dairy farms, none report the quantity of antimicrobials stored on farms, nor the ways in which they are stored. The majority of PVM treatments occur in the absence of the prescribing veterinarian, yet there is an identifiable knowledge gap surrounding PVM use and farmer decision making. To provide an evidence base for future work on PVM use, data were collected from 27 dairy farms in England and Wales in Autumn 2016. The number of different PVMs stored on farms ranged from 9 to 35, with antimicrobials being the most common therapeutic group stored. Injectable antimicrobials comprised the greatest weight of active ingredient found, while intramammary antimicrobials were the most frequent unit of medicine stored. Antimicrobials classed by the European Medicines Agency as critically important to human health were present on most farms, and the presence of expired medicines and medicines not licensed for use in dairy cattle was also common. The medicine resources available to farmers are likely to influence their treatment decisions; therefore, evidence of the PVM stored on farms can help inform understanding of medicine use.

Mixing Genetically and Morphologically Distinct Populations in Translocations: Asymmetrical Introgression in A Newly Established Population of the Boodie (Bettongia lesueur).

The use of multiple source populations provides a way to maximise genetic variation and reduce the impacts of inbreeding depression in newly established translocated populations. However, there is a risk that individuals from different source populations will not interbreed, leading to population structure and smaller effective population sizes than expected. Here, we investigate the genetic consequences of mixing two isolated, morphologically distinct island populations of boodies (Bettongia lesueur) in a translocation to mainland Australia over three generations. Using 18 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial D-loop region, we monitored the released animals and their offspring between 2010 and 2013. Despite high levels of divergence between the two source populations (FST = 0.42 and ϕST = 0.72), there was clear evidence of interbreeding between animals from different populations. However, interbreeding was non-random, with a significant bias towards crosses between the genetically smaller-sized Barrow Island males and the larger-sized Dorre Island females. This pattern of introgression was opposite to the expectation that male-male competition or female mate choice would favour larger males. This study shows how mixing diverged populations can bolster genetic variation in newly established mammal populations, but the ultimate outcome can be difficult to predict, highlighting the need for continued genetic monitoring to assess the long-term impacts of admixture.