Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the ecological threat on waters in the long-term.

What is socio-ecological research delivering? A literature survey across 25 international LTSER platforms.

With an overarching goal of addressing global and regional sustainability challenges, Long Term Socio-Ecological Research Platforms (LTSER) aim to conduct place-based research, to collect and synthesize both environmental and socio-economic data, and to involve a broader stakeholder pool to set the research agenda. To date there have been few studies examining the output from LTSER platforms. In this study we enquire if the socio-ecological research from 25 self-selected LTSER platforms of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network has produced research products which fulfil the aims and ambitions of the paradigm shift from ecological to socio-ecological research envisaged at the turn of the century. In total we assessed 4983 publically available publications, of which 1112 were deemed relevant to the socio-ecological objectives of the platform. A series of 22 questions were scored for each publication, assessing relevance of responses in terms of the disciplinary focus of research, consideration of human health and well-being, degree of stakeholder engagement, and other relevant variables. The results reflected the diverse origins of the individual platforms and revealed a wide range in foci, temporal periods and quantity of output from participating platforms, supporting the premise that there is a growing trend in socio-ecological research at long-term monitoring platforms. Our review highlights the challenges of realizing the top-down goal to harmonize international network activities and objectives and the need for bottom-up, self-definition for research platforms. This provides support for increasing the consistency of LTSER research while preserving the diversity of regional experiences.

Assessment of the natural flow regime in a Mediterranean river impacted from irrigated agriculture.

Over the last few decades, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered influencing the ecological integrity and functioning of river ecosystems. Especially in the Mediterranean region, irrigated agriculture is considered one of the most important drivers of hydro-morphological modifications in river systems. In this study we employ the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology for the Pinios River and its tributaries, located in a Mediterranean catchment in central Greece, with the purpose to assess the natural flow regime under a simulated no-agriculture scenario and compare with the current situation. The work is based on the use of the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model for the simulation of long time series of daily stream flows, which were analyzed under the actual conditions (baseline), and the hypothetical scenario. The key characteristics of the flow regime projected under each model run were assessed through the implementation of the IHA methodology that utilizes a number of indicators to characterize the intra- and inter-annual variability in the hydrologic conditions. The results of this study revealed that without agricultural activities in the catchment, annual and monthly flows would increase, with significant alterations in the flow characteristics of the winter months, and much smaller in summer. However, the analysis showed that the frequency of droughts and low flow summer events would be smaller. The article provides a comprehensive and easy-to-implement methodology that can facilitate the impact assessment of agricultural human activities on river flow variability under the typical Mediterranean conditions, allowing experimentation on setting river flow thresholds required for a good ecological status within the context of the European Water Framework Directive.