Refining the impact of genetic evidence on clinical success.

The cost of drug discovery and development is driven primarily by failure1, with only about 10% of clinical programmes eventually receiving approval2-4. We previously estimated that human genetic evidence doubles the success rate from clinical development to approval5. In this study we leverage the growth in genetic evidence over the past decade to better understand the characteristics that distinguish clinical success and failure. We estimate the probability of success for drug mechanisms with genetic support is 2.6 times greater than those without. This relative success varies among therapy areas and development phases, and improves with increasing confidence in the causal gene, but is largely unaffected by genetic effect size, minor allele frequency or year of discovery. These results indicate we are far from reaching peak genetic insights to aid the discovery of targets for more effective drugs.

Evaluating drug targets through human loss-of-function genetic variation.

Naturally occurring human genetic variants that are predicted to inactivate protein-coding genes provide an in vivo model of human gene inactivation that complements knockout studies in cells and model organisms. Here we report three key findings regarding the assessment of candidate drug targets using human loss-of-function variants. First, even essential genes, in which loss-of-function variants are not tolerated, can be highly successful as targets of inhibitory drugs. Second, in most genes, loss-of-function variants are sufficiently rare that genotype-based ascertainment of homozygous or compound heterozygous 'knockout' humans will await sample sizes that are approximately 1,000 times those presently available, unless recruitment focuses on consanguineous individuals. Third, automated variant annotation and filtering are powerful, but manual curation remains crucial for removing artefacts, and is a prerequisite for recall-by-genotype efforts. Our results provide a roadmap for human knockout studies and should guide the interpretation of loss-of-function variants in drug development.

The mutational constraint spectrum quantified from variation in 141,456 humans.

Genetic variants that inactivate protein-coding genes are a powerful source of information about the phenotypic consequences of gene disruption: genes that are crucial for the function of an organism will be depleted of such variants in natural populations, whereas non-essential genes will tolerate their accumulation. However, predicted loss-of-function variants are enriched for annotation errors, and tend to be found at extremely low frequencies, so their analysis requires careful variant annotation and very large sample sizes1. Here we describe the aggregation of 125,748 exomes and 15,708 genomes from human sequencing studies into the Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD). We identify 443,769 high-confidence predicted loss-of-function variants in this cohort after filtering for artefacts caused by sequencing and annotation errors. Using an improved model of human mutation rates, we classify human protein-coding genes along a spectrum that represents tolerance to inactivation, validate this classification using data from model organisms and engineered human cells, and show that it can be used to improve the power of gene discovery for both common and rare diseases.

A single-cell map of antisense oligonucleotide activity in the brain.

Antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) dosed into cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) distribute broadly throughout the central nervous system (CNS). By modulating RNA, they hold the promise of targeting root molecular causes of disease and hold potential to treat myriad CNS disorders. Realization of this potential requires that ASOs must be active in the disease-relevant cells, and ideally, that monitorable biomarkers also reflect ASO activity in these cells. The biodistribution and activity of such centrally delivered ASOs have been deeply characterized in rodent and non-human primate (NHP) models, but usually only in bulk tissue, limiting our understanding of the distribution of ASO activity across individual cells and across diverse CNS cell types. Moreover, in human clinical trials, target engagement is usually monitorable only in a single compartment, CSF. We sought a deeper understanding of how individual cells and cell types contribute to bulk tissue signal in the CNS, and how these are linked to CSF biomarker outcomes. We employed single nucleus transcriptomics on tissue from mice treated with RNase H1 ASOs against Prnp and Malat1 and NHPs treated with an ASO against PRNP. Pharmacologic activity was observed in every cell type, though sometimes with substantial differences in magnitude. Single cell RNA count distributions implied target RNA suppression in every single sequenced cell, rather than intense knockdown in only some cells. Duration of action up to 12 weeks post-dose differed across cell types, being shorter in microglia than in neurons. Suppression in neurons was generally similar to, or more robust than, the bulk tissue. In macaques, PrP in CSF was lowered 40% in conjunction with PRNP knockdown across all cell types including neurons, arguing that a CSF biomarker readout is likely to reflect ASO pharmacodynamic effect in disease-relevant cells in a neuronal disorder. Our results provide a reference dataset for ASO activity distribution in the CNS and establish single nucleus sequencing as a method for evaluating cell type specificity of oligonucleotide therapeutics and other modalities.

Antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) drugs are a type of chemically modified DNA that can be injected into cerebrospinal fluid in order to enter brain cells and reduce the amount of RNA from a specific gene. The brain is a complex mixture of hundreds of billions of cells. When an ASO lowers a target gene's RNA by 50%, is that a 50% reduction in 100% of cells, or a 100% reduction in 50% of cells? Are the many different cell types of the brain affected equally? This new study uses single cell RNA sequencing to answer these questions, finding that ASOs are broadly active across cell types and individual cells, and linking reduction of target protein in cerebrospinal fluid to disease-relevant cells.

Therapeutic Trial of anle138b in Mouse Models of Genetic Prion Disease.

Phenotypic screening has yielded small-molecule inhibitors of prion replication that are effective in vivo against certain prion strains but not others. Here, we sought to test the small molecule anle138b in multiple mouse models of prion disease. In mice inoculated with the RML strain of prions, anle138b doubled survival and durably suppressed astrogliosis measured by live-animal bioluminescence imaging. In knock-in mouse models of the D178N and E200K mutations that cause genetic prion disease, however, we were unable to identify a clear, quantifiable disease endpoint against which to measure therapeutic efficacy. Among untreated animals, the mutations did not impact overall survival, and bioluminescence remained low out to >20 months of age. Vacuolization and PrP deposition were observed in some brain regions in a subset of mutant animals but appeared to be unable to carry the weight of a primary endpoint in a therapeutic study. We conclude that not all animal models of prion disease are suited to well-powered therapeutic efficacy studies, and care should be taken in choosing the models that will support drug development programs. IMPORTANCE There is an urgent need to develop drugs for prion disease, a currently untreatable neurodegenerative disease. In this effort, there is a debate over which animal models can best support a drug development program. While the study of prion disease benefits from excellent animal models because prions naturally afflict many different mammals, different models have different capabilities and limitations. Here, we conducted a therapeutic efficacy study of the drug candidate anle138b in mouse models with two of the most common mutations that cause genetic prion disease. In a more typical model where prions are injected directly into the brain, we found anle138b to be effective. In the genetic models, however, the animals never reached a clear, measurable point of disease onset. We conclude that not all prion disease animal models are ideally suited to drug efficacy studies, and well-defined, quantitative disease metrics should be a priority.

Analysis of non-human primate models for evaluating prion disease therapeutic efficacy.

Prion disease is a fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by the conformational corruption of the prion protein (PrP), encoded by the prion protein gene (PRNP). While no disease-modifying therapy is currently available, genetic and pharmacological proofs of concept support development of therapies that lower PrP levels in the brain. In light of proposals for clinical testing of such drugs in presymptomatic individuals at risk for genetic prion disease, extensive nonclinical data are likely to be required, with extra attention paid to choice of animal models. Uniquely, the entire prion disease process can be faithfully modeled through transmission of human prions to non-human primates (NHPs), raising the question of whether NHP models should be used to assess therapeutic efficacy. Here we systematically aggregate data from N = 883 prion-inoculated animals spanning six decades of research studies. Using this dataset, we assess prion strain, route of administration, endpoint, and passage number to characterize the relationship of tested models to currently prevalent human subtypes of prion disease. We analyze the incubation times observed across diverse models and perform power calculations to assess the practicability of testing prion disease therapeutic efficacy in NHPs. We find that while some models may theoretically be able to support therapeutic efficacy studies, pilot studies would be required to confirm incubation time and attack rate before pivotal studies could be designed, cumulatively requiring several years. The models with the shortest and most tightly distributed incubation times are those with smaller brains and weaker homology to humans. Our findings indicate that it would be challenging to conduct efficacy studies in NHPs in a paradigm that honors the potential advantages of NHPs over other available models, on a timeframe that would not risk unduly delaying patient access to promising drug candidates.

Analysis of protein-coding genetic variation in 60,706 humans.

Large-scale reference data sets of human genetic variation are critical for the medical and functional interpretation of DNA sequence changes. Here we describe the aggregation and analysis of high-quality exome (protein-coding region) DNA sequence data for 60,706 individuals of diverse ancestries generated as part of the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). This catalogue of human genetic diversity contains an average of one variant every eight bases of the exome, and provides direct evidence for the presence of widespread mutational recurrence. We have used this catalogue to calculate objective metrics of pathogenicity for sequence variants, and to identify genes subject to strong selection against various classes of mutation; identifying 3,230 genes with near-complete depletion of predicted protein-truncating variants, with 72% of these genes having no currently established human disease phenotype. Finally, we demonstrate that these data can be used for the efficient filtering of candidate disease-causing variants, and for the discovery of human 'knockout' variants in protein-coding genes.

Prion protein lowering is a disease-modifying therapy across prion disease stages, strains and endpoints.

Lowering of prion protein (PrP) expression in the brain is a genetically validated therapeutic hypothesis in prion disease. We recently showed that antisense oligonucleotide (ASO)-mediated PrP suppression extends survival and delays disease onset in intracerebrally prion-infected mice in both prophylactic and delayed dosing paradigms. Here, we examine the efficacy of this therapeutic approach across diverse paradigms, varying the dose and dosing regimen, prion strain, treatment timepoint, and examining symptomatic, survival, and biomarker readouts. We recapitulate our previous findings with additional PrP-targeting ASOs, and demonstrate therapeutic benefit against four additional prion strains. We demonstrate that <25% PrP suppression is sufficient to extend survival and delay symptoms in a prophylactic paradigm. Rise in both neuroinflammation and neuronal injury markers can be reversed by a single dose of PrP-lowering ASO administered after the detection of pathological change. Chronic ASO-mediated suppression of PrP beginning at any time up to early signs of neuropathology confers benefit similar to constitutive heterozygous PrP knockout. Remarkably, even after emergence of frank symptoms including weight loss, a single treatment prolongs survival by months in a subset of animals. These results support ASO-mediated PrP lowering, and PrP-lowering therapeutics in general, as a promising path forward against prion disease.

Prion protein quantification in human cerebrospinal fluid as a tool for prion disease drug development.

Reduction of native prion protein (PrP) levels in the brain is an attractive strategy for the treatment or prevention of human prion disease. Clinical development of any PrP-reducing therapeutic will require an appropriate pharmacodynamic biomarker: a practical and robust method for quantifying PrP, and reliably demonstrating its reduction in the central nervous system (CNS) of a living patient. Here we evaluate the potential of ELISA-based quantification of human PrP in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to serve as a biomarker for PrP-reducing therapeutics. We show that CSF PrP is highly sensitive to plastic adsorption during handling and storage, but its loss can be minimized by the addition of detergent. We find that blood contamination does not affect CSF PrP levels, and that CSF PrP and hemoglobin are uncorrelated, together suggesting that CSF PrP is CNS derived, supporting its relevance for monitoring the tissue of interest and in keeping with high PrP abundance in brain relative to blood. In a cohort with controlled sample handling, CSF PrP exhibits good within-subject test-retest reliability (mean coefficient of variation, 13% in samples collected 8-11 wk apart), a sufficiently stable baseline to allow therapeutically meaningful reductions in brain PrP to be readily detected in CSF. Together, these findings supply a method for monitoring the effect of a PrP-reducing drug in the CNS, and will facilitate development of prion disease therapeutics with this mechanism of action.

Correction: Insights into the genetic epidemiology of Crohn's and rare diseases in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1007329.].

Multimodal small-molecule screening for human prion protein binders.

Prion disease is a rapidly progressive neurodegenerative disorder caused by misfolding and aggregation of the prion protein (PrP), and there are currently no therapeutic options. PrP ligands could theoretically antagonize prion formation by protecting the native protein from misfolding or by targeting it for degradation, but no validated small-molecule binders have been discovered to date. We deployed a variety of screening methods in an effort to discover binders of PrP, including 19F-observed and saturation transfer difference (STD) NMR spectroscopy, differential scanning fluorimetry (DSF), DNA-encoded library selection, and in silico screening. A single benzimidazole compound was confirmed in concentration-response, but affinity was very weak (Kd > 1 mm), and it could not be advanced further. The exceptionally low hit rate observed here suggests that PrP is a difficult target for small-molecule binders. Whereas orthogonal binder discovery methods could yield high-affinity compounds, non-small-molecule modalities may offer independent paths forward against prion disease.

Domain-specific Quantification of Prion Protein in Cerebrospinal Fluid by Targeted Mass Spectrometry.

Therapies currently in preclinical development for prion disease seek to lower prion protein (PrP) expression in the brain. Trials of such therapies are likely to rely on quantification of PrP in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) as a pharmacodynamic biomarker and possibly as a trial endpoint. Studies using PrP ELISA kits have shown that CSF PrP is lowered in the symptomatic phase of disease, a potential confounder for reading out the effect of PrP-lowering drugs in symptomatic patients. Because misfolding or proteolytic cleavage could potentially render PrP invisible to ELISA even if its concentration were constant or increasing in disease, we sought to establish an orthogonal method for CSF PrP quantification. We developed a multi-species targeted mass spectrometry method based on multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) of nine PrP tryptic peptides quantified relative to an isotopically labeled recombinant protein standard for human samples, or isotopically labeled synthetic peptides for nonhuman species. Analytical validation experiments showed process replicate coefficients of variation below 15%, good dilution linearity and recovery, and suitable performance for both CSF and brain homogenate and across humans as well as preclinical species of interest. In n = 55 CSF samples from individuals referred to prion surveillance centers with rapidly progressive dementia, all six human PrP peptides, spanning the N- and C-terminal domains of PrP, were uniformly reduced in prion disease cases compared with individuals with nonprion diagnoses. Thus, lowered CSF PrP concentration in prion disease is a genuine result of the disease process and not an artifact of ELISA-based measurement. As a result, dose-finding studies for PrP lowering drugs may need to be conducted in presymptomatic at-risk individuals rather than in symptomatic patients. We provide a targeted mass spectrometry-based method suitable for preclinical quantification of CSF PrP as a tool for drug development.

Insights into the genetic epidemiology of Crohn's and rare diseases in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.

As part of a broader collaborative network of exome sequencing studies, we developed a jointly called data set of 5,685 Ashkenazi Jewish exomes. We make publicly available a resource of site and allele frequencies, which should serve as a reference for medical genetics in the Ashkenazim (hosted in part at https://ibd.broadinstitute.org, also available in gnomAD at http://gnomad.broadinstitute.org). We estimate that 34% of protein-coding alleles present in the Ashkenazi Jewish population at frequencies greater than 0.2% are significantly more frequent (mean 15-fold) than their maximum frequency observed in other reference populations. Arising via a well-described founder effect approximately 30 generations ago, this catalog of enriched alleles can contribute to differences in genetic risk and overall prevalence of diseases between populations. As validation we document 148 AJ enriched protein-altering alleles that overlap with "pathogenic" ClinVar alleles (table available at https://github.com/macarthur-lab/clinvar/blob/master/output/clinvar.tsv), including those that account for 10-100 fold differences in prevalence between AJ and non-AJ populations of some rare diseases, especially recessive conditions, including Gaucher disease (GBA, p.Asn409Ser, 8-fold enrichment); Canavan disease (ASPA, p.Glu285Ala, 12-fold enrichment); and Tay-Sachs disease (HEXA, c.1421+1G>C, 27-fold enrichment; p.Tyr427IlefsTer5, 12-fold enrichment). We next sought to use this catalog, of well-established relevance to Mendelian disease, to explore Crohn's disease, a common disease with an estimated two to four-fold excess prevalence in AJ. We specifically attempt to evaluate whether strong acting rare alleles, particularly protein-truncating or otherwise large effect-size alleles, enriched by the same founder-effect, contribute excess genetic risk to Crohn's disease in AJ, and find that ten rare genetic risk factors in NOD2 and LRRK2 are enriched in AJ (p < 0.005), including several novel contributing alleles, show evidence of association to CD. Independently, we find that genomewide common variant risk defined by GWAS shows a strong difference between AJ and non-AJ European control population samples (0.97 s.d. higher, p<10-16). Taken together, the results suggest coordinated selection in AJ population for higher CD risk alleles in general. The results and approach illustrate the value of exome sequencing data in case-control studies along with reference data sets like ExAC (sites VCF available via FTP at ftp.broadinstitute.org/pub/ExAC_release/release0.3/) to pinpoint genetic variation that contributes to variable disease predisposition across populations.

Cerebrospinal fluid and plasma biomarkers in individuals at risk for genetic prion disease.

BACKGROUND: Prion disease is neurodegenerative disease that is typically fatal within months of first symptoms. Clinical trials in this rapidly declining symptomatic patient population have proven challenging. Individuals at high lifetime risk for genetic prion disease can be identified decades before symptom onset and provide an opportunity for early therapeutic intervention. However, randomizing pre-symptomatic carriers to a clinical endpoint is not numerically feasible. We therefore launched a cohort study in pre-symptomatic genetic prion disease mutation carriers and controls with the goal of evaluating biomarker endpoints that may enable informative trials in this population. METHODS: We collected cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood from pre-symptomatic individuals with prion protein gene (PRNP) mutations (N = 27) and matched controls (N = 16), in a cohort study at Massachusetts General Hospital. We quantified total prion protein (PrP) and real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) prion seeding activity in CSF and neuronal damage markers total tau (T-tau) and neurofilament light chain (NfL) in CSF and plasma. We compared these markers cross-sectionally, evaluated short-term test-retest reliability over 2-4 months, and conducted a pilot longitudinal study over 10-20 months. RESULTS: CSF PrP levels were stable on test-retest with a mean coefficient of variation of 7% for both over 2-4 months in N = 29 participants and over 10-20 months in N = 10 participants. RT-QuIC was negative in 22/23 mutation carriers. The sole individual with positive RT-QuIC seeding activity at two study visits had steady CSF PrP levels and slightly increased tau and NfL concentrations compared with the others, though still within the normal range, and remained asymptomatic 1 year later. T-tau and NfL showed no significant differences between mutation carriers and controls in either CSF or plasma. CONCLUSIONS: CSF PrP will be interpretable as a pharmacodynamic readout for PrP-lowering therapeutics in pre-symptomatic individuals and may serve as an informative surrogate biomarker in this population. In contrast, markers of prion seeding activity and neuronal damage do not reliably cross-sectionally distinguish mutation carriers from controls. Thus, as PrP-lowering therapeutics for prion disease advance, "secondary prevention" based on prodromal pathology may prove challenging; instead, "primary prevention" trials appear to offer a tractable paradigm for trials in pre-symptomatic individuals.

Pathogenic ASXL1 somatic variants in reference databases complicate germline variant interpretation for Bohring-Opitz Syndrome.

The clinical interpretation of genetic variants has come to rely heavily on reference population databases such as the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) database. Pathogenic variants in genes associated with severe, pediatric-onset, highly penetrant, autosomal dominant conditions are assumed to be absent or rare in these databases. Exome sequencing of a 6-year-old female patient with seizures, developmental delay, dysmorphic features, and failure to thrive identified an ASXL1 variant previously reported as causative of Bohring-Opitz syndrome (BOS). Surprisingly, the variant was observed seven times in the ExAC database, presumably in individuals without BOS. Although the BOS phenotype fit, the presence of the variant in reference population databases introduced ambiguity in result interpretation. Review of the literature revealed that acquired somatic mosaicism of ASXL1 variants (including pathogenic variants) during hematopoietic clonal expansion can occur with aging in healthy individuals. We examined all ASXL1 truncating variants in the ExAC database and determined most are likely somatic. Failure to consider somatic mosaicism may lead to the inaccurate assumption that conditions like BOS have reduced penetrance, or the misclassification of potentially pathogenic variants.

Ascertainment bias causes false signal of anticipation in genetic prion disease.

Anticipation is the phenomenon whereby age of onset in genetic disease decreases in successive generations. Three independent reports have claimed anticipation in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) caused by the c.598G > A mutation in PRNP encoding a p.Glu200Lys (E200K) substitution in the prion protein. If confirmed, this finding would carry clear implications for genetic counseling. We analyzed pedigrees with this mutation from four prion centers worldwide (n = 217 individuals with the mutation) to analyze age of onset and death in affected and censored individuals. We show through simulation that selective ascertainment of individuals whose onset falls within the historical window since the mutation's 1989 discovery is sufficient to create robust false signals both of anticipation and of heritability of age of onset. In our data set, the number of years of anticipation observed depends upon how strictly the data are limited by the ascertainment window. Among individuals whose disease was directly observed at a study center, a 28-year difference between parent and child age of onset is observed (p = 0.002), but including individuals ascertained retrospectively through family history reduces this figure to 7 years (p = 0.005). Applying survival analysis to the most thoroughly ascertained subset of data eliminates the signal of anticipation. Moreover, even non-CJD deaths exhibit 16 years anticipation (p = 0.002), indicating that ascertainment bias can entirely explain observed anticipation. We suggest that reports of anticipation in genetic prion disease are driven entirely by ascertainment bias. Guidelines for future studies claiming statistical evidence for anticipation are suggested.